eResearch Corporation 78 Cameron Crescent, Suite 202 Toronto, Ontario M4G 2A3 www.eresearch.ca Technical Seasonalities eResearch Corporation is pleased to provide technical opinions on the market from a seasonality standpoint, courtesy of Equity Clock, a division of the Tech Talk Financial Network. eResearch also posts, daily, the regular technical opinions provided by affiliate: Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket. Equity Clock (www.equityclock.com) is a market analysis company that provides, completely FREE, technical, fundamental and seasonality analysis on a daily basis via TimingTheMarkets.com and EquityClock.com. Equity Clock’s mission is to identify periods of re-occurring strength among individual equities in the market using methodologies presented by some of the top analysts in the industry, including those of Donald Vialoux, author of TimingTheMarkets.com. Donald Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a past president and director of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). He holds the designation of Chartered Market Technician (CMT). Mr. Vialoux has 45 years of experience in the investment industry, including prominent positions held at Richardson Greenshields and RBC Investments. He is the author of a daily letter on equity markets, which is available free at www.TimingTheMarket.ca. Mr. Vialoux is also the author of a weekly column published at GlobeAndMail.com that combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on Business News Network (BNN) Television. eResearch was established in 2000 as Canada's first equity issuer-sponsored research organization. As a primary source for professional investment research, our Subscribers (subscription is free!!!) benefit by having written research on a variety of small- and mid-cap, under-covered companies. We also provide unsponsored research reports on middle and larger-sized companies, using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. We complement our corporate research coverage with a diversified selection of informative, insightful, and thought-provoking research publications from a wide variety of investment professionals. We provide our professional investment research and analysis directly to our extensive subscriber network of discerning investors, and electronically through our website: www.eresearch.ca. Bob Weir, CFA: Director of Research Note: All of the comments, views, opinions, suggestions, recommendations, etc., contained in the TechTalk/Timing The Market articles, reports, files, documents, essays, etc., and which are distributed by eResearch Corporation, are strictly those of TechTalk/Timing The Market and do not necessarily reflect those of eResearch Corporation. Equity Clock: Seasonality Analysis September 3, 2015
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eResearch Corporation is pleased to provide technical opinions on the market from a seasonality
standpoint, courtesy of Equity Clock, a division of the Tech Talk Financial Network. eResearch also posts, daily, the regular technical opinions provided by affiliate: Tech Talk:
TimingTheMarket.
Equity Clock (www.equityclock.com) is a market analysis company that provides,
completely FREE, technical, fundamental and seasonality analysis on a daily basis via
TimingTheMarkets.com and EquityClock.com. Equity Clock’s mission is to identify periods
of re-occurring strength among individual equities in the market using methodologies
presented by some of the top analysts in the industry, including those of Donald Vialoux,
author of TimingTheMarkets.com.
Donald Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a past president and director of the Canadian
Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). He holds the designation of Chartered Market
Technician (CMT).
Mr. Vialoux has 45 years of experience in the investment industry, including prominent
positions held at Richardson Greenshields and RBC Investments. He is the author of a daily
letter on equity markets, which is available free at www.TimingTheMarket.ca.
Mr. Vialoux is also the author of a weekly column published at GlobeAndMail.com that
combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on
Business News Network (BNN) Television.
eResearch was established in 2000 as Canada's first equity issuer-sponsored research organization. As a primary source for professional investment research, our Subscribers (subscription is free!!!) benefit by having written research on a variety of small- and mid-cap, under-covered companies. We also provide unsponsored research reports on middle and larger-sized companies, using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. We complement our corporate research coverage with a diversified selection of informative, insightful, and thought-provoking research publications from a wide variety of investment professionals. We provide our professional investment research and analysis directly to our extensive subscriber network of discerning investors, and electronically through our website: www.eresearch.ca. Bob Weir, CFA: Director of Research
Note: All of the comments, views, opinions, suggestions, recommendations, etc., contained in the
TechTalk/Timing The Market articles, reports, files, documents, essays, etc., and which are distributed
by eResearch Corporation, are strictly those of TechTalk/Timing The Market and do not necessarily
reflect those of eResearch Corporation.
Equity Clock: Seasonality Analysis September 3, 2015
Stock Market Outlook for Thursday, September 3, 2015
HEADLINE: Airlines showing signs of “taking off” as out-performance versus market remains apparent.
The Markets
Stocks bounced higher on Wednesday, erasing the majority of the losses recorded in the session prior as investors pare negative equity bets ahead of Friday’s employment report. In addition, investors may be taking comfort in the fact that the markets in
China are closed for the next couple of days, limiting the negative pressures stemming from this area of the world.
The S&P 500 Index closed higher by 1.83%, ending just points away from its 10-day moving average. Short-term resistance is apparent at 1990, representing the highs charted during the last few days of August. Looking at the hourly chart of the large-cap
benchmark, a higher-low is becoming apparent, which is being confirmed by hourly momentum indicators showing the same. A break above short-term resistance at 1990
could lead to a test of the now-broken level of support at 2040. On the daily chart, however, momentum indicators remain in bearish territory and the
range of resistance between 1970 and 2040 will likely require a catalyst to crack. Nimble traders may continue to find opportunities to make short-term gains, but
intermediate investors could continue to struggle.
Within the market, a slow shift away from risk aversion is becoming apparent. Leading into the abrupt market selloff at the end of August, Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care had been out-performing the market as investors became defensive in
portfolio allocations. Now, Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary stocks are becoming market
leaders, showing strength as investors snap up beaten down names. Even the riskier Russell 2000 Small Cap Index, which would be expected to lead to the
downside during a period of risk aversion, is showing recent signs of outperformance versus the market.
As investors take on greater risk in equity positions, they are more willing to support prices from further declines.
The bright spot during Wednesday’s session was in the Airline industry. Stocks rose well over 3% as investors bet that the lower price of energy commodities will support the industry into the holiday travel season.
Many of the stocks in this space have positive technical profiles, supported by relative strength, a trend of higher-highs and higher-lows, and bullish momentum. Seasonally,
the general period of strength for the industry starts around the beginning of October, however, some constituents can start sooner. Strength runs through November and into December, peaking anywhere between the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays in
On the economic front, a report on Factory Orders provided another data-point for investors to mull over ahead of September’s FOMC meeting. The headline print indicated that Factory Orders rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in July, missing
estimates calling for an increase of 0.9%. Stripping out seasonal adjustments, orders fell by 8.3%, which is less than the July
average decline of 11.0%. The year-to-date change through the first seven months of the year now sits at –3.8%, above the 20-year average of –4.8%.
The depreciated value of commodities continues to have a negative impact on the non-durable portion of the report, particularly as it pertains to petroleum and coal products.
Seasonally, orders rebound from the July low through the month of September as manufacturers ramp up production for the fourth quarter.
Put-Call Ratio Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.31.
While the trend of the ratio continues to point higher, suggesting caution and bearishness amongst investors, the average true range (ATR) of the ratio is showing
signs of coming down, suggesting investors are becoming less erratic in the options market, possibly even becoming comfortable with portfolio allocations. A decrease in volatility can often be conducive to equity accumulation amongst investors.
Special Free Services Available through www.equityclock.com Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on
individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated recently.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
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BW: Information on Equity Clock is provided below.
Equity Clock
Equity Clock is a division of the Tech Talk Financial Network, a market analysis
company that provides technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis on a daily
basis via TimingTheMarkets.com and EquityClock.com.
Equity Clock’s mission is to identify periods of reoccurring strength among
individual equities in the market using methodologies presented by some of the top