Technical Assistance for Flood Forecasting and Early ... › files › File › Start › Proekti › PHARE... · Warning System for Maritza and Tundja rivers The system we are developing

Workshop on Alarm threshold values and warning procedures 09/07/2008Page 1

Technical Assistance for Flood Forecasting and EarlyWarning System for Maritza and Tundja rivers

Workshop onAlarm threshold values and warning procedures

Plovdiv, July 9th 2008


Workshop Agenda

Morning sessionBlock 1 General (9:30 – 10:00 )Opening by Mr. Roques and the representatives of thebeneficiaryIntroduction of the participantsShort review of the project andObjectives of the workshop

Block 2 Watershed characteristics; Geography and andhydrologyMr Lissev : 10:00 – 10:45Review of the river systemFlood genesisFlood statisticsFlood propagation timesDam influence on floods

10:45 – 11:00 Coffee break

Block 2 : Flood Forecasts, Warnings and ThresholdsMr. Roques :11:00 – 11:30Q&A

Block 3 : Vulnerable Areas and Thresholds; TundjaBasinQ&A : 11:30 - 12:30

12:30 - 13:30 Lunch break

Afternoon sessionBlock 4: Vulnerable Areas and Thresholds; UpperMaritza13:30 : 14:30Block 4 (cont) : Vulnerable Areas and Thresholds;Lower Maritza and Tributaries Maritza14:30 – 15:45

15:45 – 16:00 coffee break

Block 6 : ClosureSummary, conclusion and closure of the workshopMr. Roques 16:00 – 16:30


Short Project description



This project is part of the more global European PHARE project“Capacity Improvement for Flood Forecasting in the Bulgarian-Turkey Cross Border Cooperation Region”. Its realisation has beenentrusted by the Ministry of Regional Development and PublicWorks to the consortium “BCEOM société d’Ingénierie” & “HKVConsultants” from France and Holland with the participation ofBulgarian experts and the support of the National Institute ofMeteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) and the East Aegean River BasinDirectorate of the Ministry of Environment and Water. It startedofficially on October 2nd.

It comes with a supply component contract where Hydro-meteorologicalstations and software for Flood modelling and Flood forecasting isprovided.



The system we are developing will provide forecasts of riverdischarges and water levels along Maritza and Tundja severalhours in advance (from 6 hours to more than 60 hoursdepending on where you are in the basin).

Consequently, when our forecasts show that some discharge orwater level value may be reached at some point in the future wecan raise some warning or alarm within our system and produceautomatically information summaries (bulletins) that can beaddressed to the authorities.



The purpose of this workshop, is to discuss on how definingtogether

Ø The flood alarm threshold values for discharges and/orwater levels in the different river reaches with vulnerableareas to be used locally to warn or alert the authoritiesthere.

Ø The type of information needed for the warningprocedures to be used in the Maritsa and Tundja basinfor the authorities

This discussion is necessary in order to take into account thespecific wills, needs and knowledge of the differentstakeholders which are concerned by the issue of floods in thisarea for civil protection and urban management


Project study logic

Hydro-meteoData

Analysis

Geographical& TopographicalData acquisition

Model Set upHydrologyHydraulics

Real timeFlood forecasting

system

Damoperational

rules

BG-TKharmonisation

Dataacquisitioninterfaces

Alert/alarmprocedures

NIHMdata

EARBDGISdata

Topographicsurveys

Flood maps

FloodScenarios


The flood modelling approach

Hydrology

HydraulicsStudy of Flood genesis from rainand/or snow-melting.Rainfall-Runoff models for eachsub-basin are based upon dataanalysis and general description.Topography has not to be precise.Outputs are discharge hydrograms

Flood propagation in theriver and banksFlows are modelled using flow mechanicsTopographic data are essentialData are needed for model calibrationDischarges and water heights are linkedin the model

Observed Rainfalls(or Meteo forecasts)


Ouput from hydraulic models : flood maps

Hydraulic modelsprovide waterheights andvelocities at nodepoints according toinitial conditionsand time series odwater dischargeinputsFlood maps areproduced fromwater heights ascomputed bymodels andsuperimposed upontopographic data


Watershed characteristics

Geography and hydrology


Geography


Maritza basin Hypsometry

HIPSOGRAPHIC CURVE - MARITZA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 10002000

30004000

50006000

70008000

900010000

1100012000

1300014000

1500016000

1700018000

1900020000

2100022000

A [km^2]

H [m

]


Tundja basin Hypsometry

HIPSOGRAPHIC CURVE - TUNDJA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

0 5001000

15002000

25003000

35004000

45005000

55006000

65007000

75008000

A [km^2]

H [m

]


Meteorology and Flood Genesis

Basically four types of Flood :

Ø Winter floods due to a series of Mediterranean cyclones propagating Eastwardfrom Mediterranean sea across the Balkan peninsula (December-15 Feb) showintensive repetitive rain throughout all the basin; result in large and long floods inthe lower Maritza

Ø End of winter early spring : same as above but with sudden air warming ;worsened by the effect of snow melting

Ø Spring and early summer flood (later if rainy summers) : Convective precipitationalong cold fronts of slowly moving cyclones (Eastward) re-alimented by soilmoisture ; will touch the upper basins of both Tundja and Maritza with large flashfloods

Ø Fall season floods : Convective precipitations from the Mediterranean alimentedby warm sea water with a slowly moving cyclone centering along the Balkancoasts then eventually to the Black Sea ; will touch mostly the lower parts ofMaritza and Tundja


Seasonality of floods

Monthly Distribution of the Floods on Maritza (Harmanly) for 84 years and Tundja (Elhovo) 42 years

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

u

Months

Num

ber o

f Yea

rs

.

All floods MaritzaMaritza > 1000m3/sTundja>100 m3/s


Statistics on Rainfalls

0.001 0.05 0.5 5 30 60 90 99 99.9 99.995

P%

10

100

1000

h 24 P TKO h24 = f (P) Metod I

TKO h24 = f(P) Metod II

TKO h24p srawnenia

Increase of max daily rainfalls during the last 17 years : (upper Maritza)



Increase of max daily rainfalls during the last 17 years : (Upper Rodope)

0.001 0.05 0.5 5 30 60 90 99 99.9 99.995P%

10

100

1000



TKO h24p srawnenia



Increase of max daily rainfalls during the last 17 years : (Tundja)

0.001 0.05 0.5 5 30 60 90 99 99.9 99.995P%

10

100

1000



TKO h24p srawnenia


Historical Floods on Maritza (Harmanli)

Yearly floods on Maritza

0.000

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1000.000

1200.000

1400.000

1600.000

1800.000

2000.000

1914

1917

1920

1923

1926

1929

1932

1935

1938

1941

1944

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Qm

ax (m

3/s)

.

Yearly floods on Maritza


Historical Floods on Tundja

Yearly Floods on Tundja at Elhovo

0.000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

1952

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Q (m

3/s)

.

Flood Tundja


Historical Floods on Tundja (Banya)

Yearly Floods on Tundja at Banya

0.000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Q (m

3/s)

.

Banya


Historical Floods on TundjaYearly Floods on Tundja at Yambol and Elhovo

0.000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Q (m

3/s)

.

ElhovoYambol


Historical Floods on Tundja (Banya)

Before thereservoir


Flood statistics on Tundja Yambol


Flood statistics on Tundja (Elhovo)


Flood statistics on upper Maritza (Pazardjik)

Lognormal:2005 flood : 350 y


Historical Floods on Maritza (Plovdiv)

Lognormal:2005 flood : 90 y


Historical Floods on lower Maritza (Harmanli)

2005

Flo

od


Flood propagation on Maritza (flood 2005)

0,000

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1000,000

1200,000

1400,000

03/08/200500:00

05/08/200500:00

07/08/200500:00

09/08/200500:00

11/08/200500:00

13/08/200500:00

15/08/200500:00

17/08/200500:00

19/08/200500:00

Q_71380_YadenicaQ_71210_MativirQ_71210_Day_MativirQ_71480_TopolnicaQ_71380_Day_YadenicaQ_71700_BelovoQ_71800_PasardzikQ_71800_Day_PasardzikQ_71550_SborQ_71550_Day_SborQ_72420_HrabrinoQ_72420_Day_HrabrinoQ_72700_PlovdivQ_72460_BachkovoQ_72270_KurtovoQ_72270_Day_KurtovoQ_72520_Day_BanyaQ_72850_ParvomayQ_73030_Day_DalbokQ_73370_Day_DimitrovgradQ_73480_Day_GalabovoQ_72850_Day_ParvomayQ_72460_Day_BachkovoQ_72700_Day_PlovdivQ_71420_Day_MarkoNikolovoQ_71700_Day_BelovoQ_71480_Day_TopolnicaQ_73550_HarmanliQ_73550_Day_HarmanliQ_73750_HarmanliQ_73750_Day_HarmanliQ_73850_SvilingradQ_73850_Day_SvilingradQ_71420_MarkoNikolovo

Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Workshop 11/30/2007Page 30

Bel.Paz.

Top.

Plov.

Parv.

5h10h

6h8h

12h

12h

8h

10h

12h

Harm.

Dimi.

Svil.

Sim.

Propagation times of Flood waves for Maritza


Flood propagation on Tundja (03-2006 flood )

0,000

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

10/03/2006 11/03/2006 12/03/2006 13/03/2006 14/03/2006 15/03/2006 16/03/2006 17/03/2006 18/03/2006 19/03/2006 20/03/2006Date

Dis

char

ge [m

3/s]

Q_74750_Banja_DayQ_74440_ChumernaQ_74440_Chumerna_DayQ_74500_VodenichaneQ_74500_Vodenichane_DayQ_74800_YambolQ_74800_Yambol_DayQ_74580_SinapovaQ_74580_Sinapova_DayQ_74200_KrumovoQ_74200__Krumovo_DayQ_74850_ElhovoQ_74850_Elhovo_DaySérie14

Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Workshop 11/30/2007Page 32

Zrebch.

Elhovo

25 h

40h

Yambol

Propagation times of Flood waves for Tundja(Q <> 100m3/s)


Influence of Dams and Reservoirs

Ø Date of construction Vacha :1975; Topolniza 1963; Zrebchevo1973)

Ø Obviously Dams modify flood regimes and statistics but untilwhich discharge ?

Ø Extreme floods remain the same ! Once filled, Dams areovertopped (eg Topolnitza ; 2005; Arda 2006 and 2007) andlet the flood go

Ø Question : Yearly probability for Dam overtopping ?Estimations are needed for :Ø Vacha dam (out of the scope of this project) : security 25 Mm3Ø Zrebchevo reservoir : security 100 Mm3Ø Topolnitza (+/- known now.) : security : 45 Mm3


Zrebchevo Dam statistics on inflows and overtoppings

0.001 0.01 0.1 1Probability of exceedance %

1

10

100

Vol

ume

m3

x10

6


1

10

100

Volu

me

m3 x

106

New Data (2000-2007)Risk of overtopping : 150 Mm3 of inflow ; Theoretical : 500 y


Topolnitza Dam statistics on inflows and overtoppings

New Data (2000-2007)Risk of overtopping : 50 Mm3 of inflow ; Theoretical : < 100 y


1

10

100

Vol

ume

m3

x10

6


1

10

100

Vol

ume

m3

x10

6

1 Day 2 Day


Flood Forecasts, Warnings and Thresholds


The Flood Forecasting system organisation

CalibratedModels

Data acquisitionsystem

DailyMeteo forecastsand/or prepared

scenarios

Flood Forecasting System

DB

LocalAuthorities

Crisis managementteam

FloodMaps

GISdata

Preparation

Return ofexperience

HM-DBdata

Interfaces


Flood Warning system : Forecasts and Thresholds

Control Point Yambol

122.00

123.00

124.00

125.00

126.00

03/11/06 03/13/06 03/15/06 03/17/06Date

Wat

er L

evel

[m]

Forecast longForecast shortObserved

3.3

4.3

5.2


Flood Forecasting and Warning operations

Ø st

Decision to warn

DataCollection

DataTransmission

MeteorologicalForecasting

FloodForecasting

WarningPreparation

WarningDissemination

Interpretation& Response

Feedback


Flood Forecasting sequences : 24/24 operations

Initialised at To then Runs every Tf (to be parameterised)Data collection from NIMH when available before Time T; interfaces to be setData coherence analysis on retrieved data to be defined and designedProcess data assimilation : “mix” observations with results from last computationRun the models at time T using initial conditions from data assimilationProvide results at node points defined as output discharges / water heights

Forecast N°1 Forecast N°2 Forecast N°x Forecast N°N-1 Forecast N°N Forecast N°N+1

Run Run Run Run Run Run

T0 TF T T+TF

Intialisation

Datacollection +assimilation






Once it is started, the forecasting systemmay run for several days or weeks


Flood Warning system : Forecasts and Thresholds

Control Point Yambol

122,00

123,00

124,00

125,00

126,00

03/11/06 03/13/06 03/15/06 03/17/06Date

Wat

er L

evel

[m]

Forecast longForecast shortObserved

3.3

4.3

5.2


Flood Warning system with FFS

Ø st

Analysis & predictionIf warnings are deemed necessary, they are:

Ø Prepared manually / automaticallyØ Automatically disseminated


Roles and responsibilities during flood events

Institute of Meteorology•Operates the forecasts 24/24 duringthe crisis•Alerts the regional basin crisis centreof evolutions•Provides forecasted data

Regional Basin crisis centreIssues flood warnings and forecastsIssues river heights bulletins / infoPrepares / uses flood maps

National crisis centreCoordinates flood disasterresponse

Regional crisiscentreCoordinate localactions of floodmitigation

MEDIABroadcast information / bulletins

COMMUNITY at RISKActs on advices and warnings

Turkey crisis centreReceive flood warnings &observed and forecasted data

Local Government crisiscentreCoordinate regional actions offlood mitigationImplement local disater plansProvide local advices andrecommendations


Vulnerable areas and ThresholdsTUNDJA BASIN


Proposed Control points with Threshold values for Tundja

YambolVodenichene, ChardaMochuritza-HMSVodenichene

HaskovoSrem, Turkey (Edirne)HMS Srem (Planned)

Yambol(Elhovo)Konevec, Trankovo, KniazevoHMS Elhovo

YambolZavoy, Veselinovo, Yambol, Okop, Hanovo,TenevoHMS Yambol

Krushare, Zelyu Vojvoda, ZavoyKrushare

SlivenBanja, Binkos, Charda, Slivenski mineralni bani,Mechkarevo, SamuilovoHMS Banja

CivilProtectionVulnerable areas / settlements

Control Points onTundja


Settlements for upper Tundja

Slivenski


Threshold values for upper Tundja :Preliminary Model results

0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 30000.0 35000.0 40000.0 45000.0 50000.0 55000.0 60000.0 65000.0 70000.0115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

135.0

140.0

145.0

150.0

155.0

160.0

165.0

170.0

175.0

180.0

185.0

190.0

195.0

200.0

205.0

210.0

215.0

220.0

225.0[meter] 1-3-2006 12:00:00

TUNDJA 0 - 76298

0 273

1796

4037

6183

7332

8961 11

187

1395

414

807

1615

6

1895

0

2345

0

2637

1

2899

330

252

3210

3

3346

633

750

3614

3

3812

0

3962

7

4117

9

4407

7

4771

9

5030

851

398

5329

5

5637

9

5928

0

6061

8

6194

4

6352

7

6515

2

6685

5

6869

069

585

7222

5

(600 m3/s)

Flooding


Settlements for upper Tundja


0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 30000.0 35000.0 40000.0 45000.0 50000.0 55000.092.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

110.0

112.0

114.0

116.0

118.0

120.0

122.0

124.0

126.0

128.0

130.0

132.0

134.0

[meter] 1-3-2006 12:00:00

TUNDJA

7629

8

7796

878

750

7891

1

TUNDJA 78911 - 86861

7900

979

442

8024

6

8156

4

8583

3

8686

1

TUNDJA 86861 - 126734

8783

2

9010

3

9134

6

9249

2 9316

4

9450

4

9751

998

477

1001

29

1015

98

1049

40

1090

73

1133

53

1146

32

1172

79

1216

46

1267

34

TUNDJA

1317

32

TUNDJA

1342

89

Threshold values for lower TundjaPreliminary Model results


Vulnerable areas and ThresholdsMARITZA BASIN


Proposed Control points with Threshold values for Maritza

HaskovoSvilengrad, Generalovo, Kapitan Andreevo ;EDIRNEHMS Svilengrad

HaskovoHarmanlyHMS Harmanly

HaskovoSimeonovgradSimeonovgrad

HaskovoDimitrovgrad, Chernokonevo, Brod, NovanadezdaDimitrovgrad

PlovdivParvomay, Dobri dol , Brod, Nova nadezdaHMS Parvomay

PlovdivOrizare, PlovdivHMS Plovdiv

PazardzikPazardzik, Miriantzi, Ognianovo, 7. Hadzievo,Trivodici, Govedare, StambolijskiHMS Pazardzik

PazardzikBelovo, Zlokuchene, ZvanichevoHMS Belovo

CivilProtectionSettlements at StakesControl Points


Proposed Control points with Threshold values forMaritza tributaries

HaskovoGalabovo, Galabovo (Musachevo)?, Piasachevo,Kalugerovo, NavasenSazlika – HMS Galabovo

PlovdivAsenovgrad, KatunicaChepelarska–HMSBachkovo

PlovdivHrabrino, ParvenecParvenecka - HMSHrabrino

PlovdivKrichim, Kurtovo Konare,Yoakim Gruevo,KadievoVacha- Dam Krichim

PazardzikHMS Sbor, Chernogorovo, Krali Marko, Highwaycrossing

Luda Yana – HMS Roseb(Sbor)

PazardzikVetren dol, VarvaraChepinska - Vetren dol,Varvara

PazardzikLesichovo, Kalugerovo, Pamidovo,Saraya(Yunacite), Dragor, Highway crossingTopolnitza- Lesichovo

CivilProtectionVulnerable settlementsControl Points


Vulnerable areas


Threshold values for Upper Maritza

Ø Validate Stakes for every control point…Ø As the model is not operational for now we may propose for

Alert :Ø Belovo (short term only) : rating curve ? ½ of 2005 for alertØ Pazardjik / Maritza : ½ 2005 = 600 m3 /sØ Maritza Plovdiv : 2/3 2005 or more ?Ø Pazardjik / Topolnitza ; Dikes computed for # 250 m3 /sØ Luda Yana (short term only) :Ø Vacha (Plovdiv; just observed : basin not covered by the

FFS); WaitØ Chepelarska (Plovdiv) 2005 =150 m3/s (max 400 in 2002)Ø Vacha and Topolnitza water level ?


Vulnerable areas


Vulnerable areas

Simeonovgrad


Threshold values for Lower Maritza

Ø Validate the vulnerable areas locallyØ As the model is not operational for now we may propose for

Alert :Ø Parvomayà 2/3 of 2005 for alert ?Ø Dimitrovgradà 2/3 of 2005 ?Ø Simeonovgrad : 2/3 2005 or 2006 ?Ø Harmanly : 2/3à 2005 or 2007 ?Ø Svilengrad : 2/3à 2005 or 2007 ?


Discussions

Ø Content of bulletinsØ How to deal with uncertainties of forecastsØ Way of dissemination (Fax / Telephone / Internet)Ø Raise / End of Warnings / Alert


Conclusions of the Workshop

Ø Control points : Relevant ? Approved ? Need more ?Ø Thresholds will be refined when the models will be ready and

calibrated : Methodology approved ? Discharges or Level ?Ø Type and format of bulletinsØ Warning / pre-Alert / Alert Cycles

Ø What type of complementary information ? Internet ?Ø What functions expected by EARBD and/or NIMH for

Broadcasting of warnings / Alert messages and Bulletins

Technical Assistance for Flood Forecasting and Early ... › files › File › Start › Proekti › PHARE... · Warning System for Maritza and Tundja rivers The system we are developing

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