Technical Analysis · EUR/USD GP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD. EUR/USD near 1.1150 on Tuesday Tuesday, September 06, 2016 Pair’s Outlook The common European currency traded almost flat on

06/09/2016

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD

EUR/USD near 1.1150 on Tuesday

Pair’s Outlook The common European currency traded almost flat on Tuesday

morning against the US Dollar. Previously, the currency exchange rate

moved lower on Monday, as it moved out of the channel upward

pattern, which it started forming in the aftermath of Brexit. Although, it

is likely that the rate will surge during today’s trading session, as the 55

and 200-day simple moving averages are providing support just below

it at 1.1141 and 1.1131. However, the rate would then be stopped by

the resistance cluster located above from 1.1176 to 1.1190.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders remain bearish on the pair, as 59% of open positions

remain short on Tuesday. In the meantime, pending commands are

57% to sell.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

Tuesday, September 06, 2016 07:30 GMT

“If the ECB extends quantitative easing -- as most economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict -- policy makers may have to reconsider what they can buy.” - based on Bloomberg

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -18% -20% -18%

-14% -16% -8% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Buy Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Buy

Aggregate ↘ → →

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.1334/39 Monthly R1; Bollinger band

■ R2 1.1305 Weekly R2

■ R1 1.1176/1.1230 Weekly and monthly PP; 20 and 100-day SMA; weekly R1

■ S1 1.1141/31 55 and 200-day SMA

■ S2 1.1101 Weekly S1

■ S3 1.1048 Bollinger band; weekly S2

GBP/USD to retreat from 1.3320

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.3414 Weekly R1; up-trend

■ R2 1.3385/70 Monthly R1; Aug high; Bollinger band

■ R1 1.3322 23.6% Fibo

■ S1 1.3237/25 Weekly PP; 55-day SMA; down-trend

■ S2 1.3180 Up-trend

■ S3 1.3127/21 Weekly S1; monthly PP; 20-day SMA

Pair’s Outlook The currency pair is lacking bullish momentum near resistance

represented by the 23.60% retracement of the Jun 23—Jul 5 sell-off

despite fundamentally strong Pound. Nevertheless, the price managed

to fetch our target 1.3385/70 (monthly R1 and August maximum)

yesterday. There is now a good possibility the bears will take over in

the near term, but the losses are expected to be limited by a strong

support at 1.3237/25, where the recently broken trendline is reinforced

by the 55-day SMA and weekly pivot point.

Traders’ Sentiment Traders keep selling the British Pound, and the share of shorts has

already reached 62%, up from 60% recorded 24 hours ago. At the same

time, the percentage of sell orders is growing as well. It increased from

63 to 64%.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

Tuesday, September 06, 2016 07:30 GMT

“Sterling should remain supported as BoE rate expectations and the gilt curve experience a significant revaluation.” - Morgan Stanley (based on Reuters)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -24% -20% -16%

-28% -26% -2% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Buy

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Neutral

ADX (14) Neutral Sell Neutral

CCI (14) Sell Neutral Buy

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Sell

Aggregate ↗ ↘ →

USD/JPY aims for 105 yen

Level Rationale

■ R3 105.28 100-day SMA

■ R2 104.94/79 Weekly and monthly R1

■ R1 104.29 Bollinger band

■ S1 103.35 Weekly PP

■ S2 103.00/102.81 Down-trend; 55-day SMA

■ S3 102.37/16 Weekly S1; monthly PP

Pair’s Outlook The setup has become even more bullish for USD/JPY than it was

yesterday, as the currency pair has confirmed the broken trendline,

meaning the US Dollar is willing to keep advancing north. The first

target is the latest September 2 high, but the price should have no

trouble rising towards the weekly and monthly R1s at 104.94/79,

considering the daily technical indicators. Additional resistance is at

105.29, represented by the 100-day SMA, while support is at

103.00/102.81, and it may not be long before this demand area comes

into play, as weekly indicators are mostly giving ‘sell’ signals.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX sentiment remains bullish, with 64% of traders expecting the

Greenback to appreciate. Meanwhile, orders are almost evenly

distributed between the buy (48%) and sell (52%) ones.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

Tuesday, September 06, 2016 07:30 GMT

“The BOJ should wait for the Fed. The present focus of attention is on the U.S. exit policy.” - Koichi Hamada, economic adviser to PM (based on Bloomberg)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 28% 28% 32%

-4% -2% -14% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Buy

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Neutral Neutral

ADX (14) Buy Sell Sell

CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Buy

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Sell

Aggregate ↗ ↘ →

Gold struggles on Tuesday

Pair’s Outlook The yellow metal continues to struggle with the monthly PP at 1,326.43

for the third consecutive session on Tuesday, as the commodity price

keep reaching above it and retreating afterwards. However, the rate

already managed to have a close above the resistance on Monday, as

the session ended at 1,326.83, and a surge would be consistent with

the channel upward pattern, which the metal has formed in the past

four trading sessions. Although, daily aggregate technical indicators do

not support a surge of the bullion during today’s session.

Traders’ Sentiment Traders remain slightly bearish regarding gold, as 53% of open positions

are short on Tuesday morning. In the meantime, pending commands

are 64% to buy, which means that the surge is likely to continue.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

Tuesday, September 06, 2016 07:30 GMT

“The U.S. Labor Day holiday kept volumes subdued on Monday, but new U.S. data releases and any speeches from Fed officials will be watched closely for clues to the timing of any rate moves.” - base don Reuters

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -6% -4% -4%

28% 40% 24% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Buy

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Buy Buy

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Buy Buy

Aggregate ↘ ↗ ↗

Level Rationale

■ R3 1,363.28 Weekly R3

■ R2 1,346/52 Weekly R2; monthly R1; Bollinger band

■ R1 1,326/35 20 and 55–day SMA; monthly PP; weekly R1

■ S1 1,319.05 Weekly PP

■ S2 1,308.01 Weekly S1

■ S3 1,302.27 Bollinger band

Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend Neutral – no specific trend for the pair Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Indicators MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction Forecasts

Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts

Second Quartile – the median price based on the

projections of the industry

First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts

EXPLANATIONS

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]

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