Tech Trends: 2013-2020+ -

Tech Trends: 2013-2020+ Scott Hargrove

Director of IT and Support Services

Agenda

1. Definitions and Themes

2. “Micro Tech Trends”

3. “Management Tech Trends”

4. “Macro Tech Trends”

Some definitions…

• Today we’re talking about libraries and

Information Technology (IT)

• Specifically, we’re talking about the

technology trends that drive our

communities, which in turn drive our

libraries

Some definitions…

• Information Technology IS…

– Hardware (servers, routers, switches, etc.)

– Enterprise-level software (operating systems,

security software, ILS, etc.)

– Computer networks (Cabled, wireless, hybrid)

Some definitions…

• Information Technology IS NOT…

– Most Consumer-grade Technology (digital

cameras, data projectors, SmartPhones, MP3

players, anything with “i” in front of it…)

Some definitions…

• Information Technology IS NOT…

– Social Media/Social Networking

– Web Design

– Moving furniture!!!

Some definitions…

• Information Technology was NOT, BUT is

starting to be:

– Tablets, personal laptops, BYOD

– POS/Cash Registers

– Photocopiers

– Telephony

– “Anything with a plug”

Theme for Today

• Libraries follow trends, they rarely start

them

• This is not (usually…) a bad thing – it

ensures library budgets are spent on more

proven technologies

Trend Trackers

• Many IT consultancies track trends

• Very expensive subscriptions…

• HOWEVER – much of the critical

information is published freely, if you know

what to look for…

Gartner, Inc.

• Arguably the biggest and the best trend

tracking organization

• Probably the best technology prediction

accuracy record

Gartner 2013 Top 10 Tech Trends

1. Mobile Device Battles

2. Mobile Applications and

HTML5

3. Personal Cloud

4. Enterprise App Stores

5. The Internet of Things

6. Hybrid IT and Cloud

Computing

7. Strategic Big Data

8. Actionable Analytics

9. In Memory Computing

10. Integrated Ecosystems

Most important for libraries?

• ALL of these trends will have an impact on

libraries this year

• In the interest of time, we’ll briefly examine

three:

Scott’s Top Three

1. Mobile Device Battles

2. Cloud Computing (incorporating Personal

Cloud, Hybrid IT and Cloud Computing,

and Integrated Ecosystems)

3. Strategic Big Data

Mobile Device Battles

“Gartner predicts that by 2013 mobile

phones will overtake PCs as the most

common Web access device worldwide…”

Gartner Top 10 Tech Trends, 2013


“…the era of PC dominance with Windows

as the single platform will be

replaced…where Windows is just one of a

variety of environments IT will need to

support.”



• Lessons for Libraries:

– Ensure library services are available in

mobile-friendly, cross-browser compatible

versions wherever possible



– Public wireless hotspots with good bandwidth

are of ever-increasing importance to our

customers



– Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) is currently a

hot topic, but probably unsustainable in the

long term, and brings major security risks

BYOD

“Through 2014, employee-owned

devices will be compromised by

malware at more than double the rate of

corporate-owned devices.”

Gartner Top 10 IT Predictions, 2013

Cloud Computing

• What is “Cloud Computing”?

– The provision of computing services and

applications over the Internet, generally

access through a browser or specialty

application

Cloud Computing

Personal Cloud

• Accessing personal data, applications and

communities from anywhere, on multiple

devices, in real-time

Personal Cloud

“In this world no one platform, form factor,

technology or vendor will dominate…”

“…shifts focus from the client device to

cloud-based services delivered across

devices.” Gartner Top 10 Tech Trends, 2013

Personal Cloud


– Ensure library services are available in

mobile-friendly, cross-browser compatible

versions wherever possible

e.g. Discovery Layers and on-line collections

Personal Cloud


– The library needs to integrate its services and

collections into the personal cloud of all of its

customers to ensure our future relevance

Personal Cloud

Apps-based access to library materials

and programs: 35% of Americans ages

16 and older would “very likely” use that

service and another 28% say they would

be “somewhat likely” to do so.

“Library Services in the Digital Age”, Pew Research, 2013

Strategic Big Data

“Big Data is moving from a focus on

individual projects to an influence on

enterprises’ strategic information

architecture. Dealing with data volume,

variety, velocity and complexity is forcing

changes to many traditional approaches.”


Strategic Big Data

“Big Data isn’t a solution; it’s the name for

the problem. Ninety percent of the world's

data has been created in the last two years.

The very nature of the data that’s being

created is different. It’s now a river, a flowing

stream, and not single, isolated numbers.”

Dane Atkinson, CEO, SumAll

Strategic Big Data

Library of Congress

• Largest library in the world

• 155,300,000 items

• 11,000 new items every day

• 838 miles (1349 km) of bookshelves

Strategic Big Data

“Every day, three times per second, we produce

the equivalent of the amount of data that the

Library of Congress has in its entire print

collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos

on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text

messages about the next Twilight movie.”

Nate Silver

Strategic Big Data

“By 2015, big data demand will reach

4.4 million jobs globally, but only one-

third of those jobs will be filled.”


Strategic Big Data

“An important aspect of the challenge in filling

these jobs lies in the fact that enterprises need

people with new skills — data management,

analytics and business expertise and

nontraditional skills necessary for extracting the

value of big data, as well as artists and

designers for data visualization.”


Strategic Big Data

“An important aspect of the challenge in filling

these jobs lies in the fact that enterprises need

people with new skills — data management,

analytics and business expertise and

nontraditional skills necessary for extracting the

value of big data, as well as artists and

designers for data visualization.”


Strategic Big Data

A cautionary note – Big Data, or Big Hype?

Tech Hype Curve

Internet of Things

Big

Data

HTML 5

Cloud Computing

Media Tablets

Cloud Computing (2011) Media Tablets (2011)

Internet of Things

Big

Data

HTML 5

Cloud Computing

Tech Hype Curve - Past

Wireless (1995)

Satellite Radio (2004)

Tablet PC (2003)

Information Superhighway (1995)

HD TV (2004)

Voice over IP (2000)

Household Wi-Fi (2004)

Digital Cameras (2004)

PDA Phones (2001)

Managing Leading IT

• Business sets the trend, libraries follow

• There are major changes happening in the

way that business is managing IT

A Bit of History

• Corporate business traditionally have:

– CEO (Chief Executive Officer)

– CFO (Chief Financial Officer)

– COO (Chief Operating Officer)

A Bit of History

• New C-level roles have started to appear

in the last 25 years, including:

– Chief Marketing Officer (Retail Organizations)

– Chief Investment Officer (Banking)

– Chief Risk Officer (Banking)

A Bit of History

“In 1986, when BusinessWeek introduced

“Management’s Newest Star,” inviting us

to “Meet the Chief Information Officer,” the

idea of adding anyone else to the C-Suite

was not only revolutionary, it was

frightening.” Toni Bowers, Tech Decision Maker, July 15, 2013

http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/tech-manager/why-the-cio-isnt-cutting-it-

anymore/8445?tag=nl.e101&s_cid=e101&ttag=e101&ftag=TRE684d531

A Bit of History

• What are CIOs?

– Professional background in computer science,

computer engineering, software engineering

or some other technical field

– Often, but not always, have appropriate

business courses and/or education acquired

later in their career

CIO Profile

Stephanie Reel

CIO, The Johns Hopkins

University and Health System – BSc in Information Systems

Management

– MBA

– 15 years of experience in information

systems

A Bit of History

• The role of the CIO continues to be difficult

to define, and varies from company to

company in:

– Responsibilities

– Reporting structure

• 2000: CIO = “Career Is Over”

A Bit of History

• Evidence of communication problems

between CIOs and CEOs

• Brief experimentation with CIOs reporting

to CFOs in the early 2000s

• Economically responsible decisions often

resulted in major IT disasters

Current Challenges

• Additional research is showing that part of

the problem with the CIO role is that it is

simply too large, and too poorly

understood

Current Challenges

• This is in turn leading to the growth of new

C-level roles:

– Chief Technology Officer

– Chief Automation Officer

– Chief Security Officer

– Chief Data Officer

Current Challenges

• Growth of new opportunities combined

with current public sector conditions is

resulting in losses of public sector CIOs

Current Challenges

“Gartner found that IT executives at all levels of

government tend to stay in their posts for an average of

3.4 years in 2012. A year before that, government CIO

tenures lasted 4.2 years on average.

In the private sector, CIOs remained in their posts for 4.7

years on average in 2011 and 5.7 years on average in

2012.”

http://www.itworldcanada.com/news/why-canadian-u-s-cios-are-leaving-the-government/147570#ixzz2dCxNzBRD

Current Challenges

“Salary freezes, sequestrations, public

sector bankruptcies and elections are

among the reasons cited by analysts and

government CIOs for their early withdrawal

of IT leaders from the public sector.”


Current Challenges

“This is unfortunate, according to the Rick

Howards, analyst at Gartner, because

government CIO tenure is declining at a

time when “dependence on information

and data in government is increasing.”


Where are libraries?

• Very few public libraries have an IT

professional operating at a Senior

Management level (FVRL, GVPL…?)

• In other words, libraries are 20-25 years

behind corporations in adapting their

senior management structures

Library Senior Management

“Shouldn’t our organizational structures be

subject to local plans, local priorities and

thus changing over time, rather than being

the same as 1953?”

Ken Haycock, Blog, September 10, 2013

Managing Leading IT

• Libraries need to add professional IT

leadership to their senior management

teams

IT Job Market

“Base compensation for all technology

professionals will rise by an average of 5.3

percent in 2013, according to Robert Half

Technology’s 2013 Technology Salary

Guide.”

http://career-advice.monster.com/job-search/company-industry-research/2013-technology-jobs-outlook/article.aspx

IT Job Market

• Mobile applications developers 9 percent

• Wireless network engineers 7.9 percent

• Network engineers 7.8 percent

• Data modelers 7.6 percent

• Portal administrators 7.5 percent

• Data warehouse managers 7.4 percent


IT Job Market

• Business intelligence analysts: 7.3 percent

• Senior Web developers: 7.3 percent

• Web developers: 7.3 percent

• Network architects: 7 percent

• Network managers: 7 percent


Why do I need a CIO? (or a CAO…or a CTO…or a Director of IT…or a

Manager of IT if your library is small enough that it

doesn’t have a senior management team…)

Upcoming Trends

• ILS and eBook interface

• Integrating the eBook into the OPAC

• Improving the customer experience

Upcoming Trends

• Smart Watches

• Gets lots of media attention

Upcoming Trends

• Industry specific technologies will concern

IT professionals only based on how they

interact with infrastructure

• Consumer devices are exciting, but not

generally a major concern of IT leadership

The Future

Predictions for What the CIO Role Will

Look Like in 2020

http://www.cio.com/article/705599/10_Predictions_for_What_the_CIO_Role_Will_Look_Like_in_2020?page=3&taxonomyId=3174

Upcoming Trends: The Decline of Microsoft

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=nZySu7S2dmDM8M&tbnid=GiYyPuYfPLnzvM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.extremetech.com/computing/137970-microsoft-prices-surface-tablet-at-500-but-is-it-cheap-enough-to-beat-the-ipad&ei=suswUuyHHamqiAKYwYHADg&bvm=bv.52109249,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNE4OhFL9bASnorzyIxZGaWA5mancw&ust=1379024171008633

Upcoming Trends: Cloud-based Computing Transition

• Unique challenges for Canada

• Ongoing assessment of IT services for

migration to the Cloud

• Which Cloud?

Upcoming Trends: Technology Staffing Changes

• Fewer, more highly trained, more

expensive, increasingly specialized staff

• Why: trend towards autonomous systems,

but greater complexity in non-autonomous

systems


Glass’s Law of Complexity

“For every 25% increase in the business

functionality of a system, there is a 100%

increase in complexity to that system.”


Glass’s Law of Complexity

“For every 25% increase in the number of

connections to a system, there is a 100%

increase in complexity to that system.”


• More remote staff, operating in teams that

continuously change membership

• How to support them?

Upcoming Trends: Growth of AI

• Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to replace

simple human roles

• Tier One Tech Support will largely by

performed by AI by 2020

• Info Desk/Circ Staff?

Upcoming Trends:

Strategic Big Data

• Business Analytics

• Organization and management of big data

to support effective decision making

Upcoming Trends: CIOs Will Impact Business Direction

“Many CIOs of today meet with business leaders

and contribute to the overall direction of the

company. In the future, the CIO won't just

contribute. He or she may be the main thought

leader, moving from an advisory role to one

more focused on direct innovation.

Upcoming Trends:

CIOs Will Impact Business Direction

Masergy's Naramore says the CIO will be

involved in every key business decision, from

marketing to product design to logistics, because

technology will play a pivotal role (or even the

major key role) in those areas.”

http://www.cio.com/article/705599/10_Predictions_for_What_the_CIO_Role_Will_Look_Like_in_2020

Upcoming Trends:


"The world outside IT changed creating a quiet crisis for

IT. Demands have increased in a world grown dynamic

and digital. The harder CIOs work tended to current

concerns, the less relevant IT became. CIOs know that

the future rests in not repeating the past but in extending

IT by hunting and harvesting in a digital world.“

Mark MacDonald, Gartner Fellow, Group Vice President

Upcoming Trends:


"The world outside IT changed creating a quiet crisis for

IT. Demands have increased in a world grown dynamic

and digital. The harder CIOs work tended to current

concerns, the less relevant IT became. CIOs know that

the future rests in not repeating the past but in extending

IT by hunting and harvesting in a digital world.“

Mark MacDonald, Gartner Fellow, Group Vice President

Cyberwarfare: The Future of

Security • DefCon 2013: Cryptocalypse

– Today’s encryption algorithms will likely be

rendered useless within five years

– Replacement algorithms are patented

– Expect heavy infrastructure replacement

costs roughly 3 years from now, including

major network changes

P.L.A. Unit 61398

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=china+hacking+building&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=008mdy50okx4AM&tbnid=WYD67iYDP8y7oM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://gizmodo.com/5985251/this-building-is-home-to-the-chinese-army-unit-hacking-the-us&ei=--cwUtqhI4LfiAL2qIGoAg&bvm=bv.52109249,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNHqaaR-tGdyBekK8Ae1rKN15vXzsA&ust=1379023187384483

The End…

…of Net Neutrality

The End…

…of the World Wide Web

The Beginning…

…of multiple “Internets”?

The Internets

• According to Google, there are over one

trillion unique web pages

• Already, the Web is effectively divided by

language – what about geography, politics

and economics?

http://jonathanstray.com/how-many-webs

The Beginning…

…of the CIO as: • Web Contract Negotiator

• Multiple Internet Service Management

• Statistical Manager and Analyst

• Staffing Strategist

• CyberWarfare General

Possibly…

Technology in 2006

• BlackBerry was the dominant

SmartPhone, and was edging out Palm

• Android wasn’t a phone yet, no iPhone

until 2007

• Business Week Cover Story: Second Life

Technology in 2006

• Nintendo Wii was released in November

• VMWare was just starting to offer server

virtualization

• Lack of bandwidth was being identified as

a major worldwide problem

Really The End

• The challenge of a CIO is to determine in

which technology to invest

• A comprehensive background and

education in IT improves the quality of

decisions made

Really The End

• There are some extremely major changes

facing the world of technology by 2020

• Who will lead your library through these

challenges? Are you confident they have

the skills and knowledge needed?

Thank you for contributing! These slides will be uploaded to the

ABCPLD website in the next few

days…

Scott Hargrove Director of IT and Support Services, FVRL

[email protected]

1-888-668-4141 xt. 7043

mailto:[email protected]

Tech Trends: 2013-2020+ -

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