1 Tech Fads vs. Fundamental Shifts Tech Fads vs. Fundamental Shifts http://p10.metroflog.com/pictures/529/37/5/828537529_JWJLBHIPANXCMYK.jpg Terry Gray, PhD Assoc VP, Technology Strategy UW Information Technology Dawg Days Technology Fair 29 Sep 2010
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Tech Fads vs. Fundamental Shifts - University of Washingtonstaff.washington.edu/gray/talks/2010/techfads.pdf · 3 Define “Fad” ! My definition: (1) phenomena characterized by
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Tech Fads vs. Fundamental ShiftsTech Fads vs. Fundamental Shifts
Adoption Curves and GravityAdoption Curves and GravityWhat drives exponential growth? What comes after?What drives exponential growth? What comes after?
Explanations for Rapid Rise– Mass hysteria, contagion, greed, addiction– Mandates– Breakthru pricing
Does “what goes up must come down” apply?– Timescale and scarcity matter– Are we dealing with physics or psychology?– No end in sight: data, network traffic, inane tweets
“cultural trends are abandoned more readily the quicker they catch on” http://scienceblogs.com/notrocketscience/2009/05/baby_names_suggest_that_cultural_trends_are_abandoned_more_r.php
Berger and Le Mens
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What's the Punchline?What's the Punchline?It's all about adoption curves