Team Handoff MarketForecasters Cohort Two Industry Bravo Lindsey Battaglia Scott Christensen Matthew Derganc Adam Frey Gregory Young February 6 th , 2013
Dec 13, 2015
Team Handoff
MarketForecastersCohort Two
Industry BravoLindsey BattagliaScott ChristensenMatthew Derganc
Adam FreyGregory Young
February 6th, 2013
Team Handoff
Cohort TwoIndustry Bravo
Lindsey BattagliaScott ChristensenMatthew Derganc
Adam FreyGregory YoungApril 12, 2013
MFers
Team Handoff
Cohort TwoIndustry Bravo
Lindsey BattagliaScott ChristensenMatthew Derganc
Adam FreyGregory YoungApril 12, 2013
MarketForecasters
STOCK PRICE EVOLUTION
REVENUES AND PROFITABILITY
Year 5 Year 6 Year 70
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Mfers RevenueLeading Competitor
Revenue
Year 5 Year 6 Year 70
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mfers ContributionLeading Competitor
Contribution
50% Higher
MARKET SHARE
Firm M24%
Firm L29%
Firm S19% Firm T
14% Firm R14%
Year 5
MARKET SHARE
Firm M27%
Firm L28%
Firm S17% Firm T
16%
Firm R12%
Year 6
MARKET SHARE
Firm M32%
Firm L23%
Firm S19%
Firm T17%
Firm R10%
Year 7
9BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
•Company Overview/Performance•Dominate Shoppers and Savers•Enter Vodites and Compete•Economies of Scale
10BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
•Industry/Competition•Firm S only competitor in Sonite•Vodite Followers highly competitive
11BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
MOST 63%
SOLO32%
Other5%
Sonite Savers Market Share
MOVE65%
SOFT21%
Other14%
Sonite Shoppers Market Share
MEGA18%
SEXY24%
REAL2%
LEAD24%
LEGS21%
Other11%
Vodite Followers Market Share
12BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
•Consumer Review•High share in Shoppers & Savers•Followers dominate Vodites
13BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW – SONITE
Explorers5%
Shoppers 33%
Professionals 11%
Highs Earners9%
Savers 41%
Year 7
Explorers4%
Shoppers 34%
Professionals 10%
Highs Earners9%
Savers 44%
Year 8 (Exp)
Explorers2%
Shoppers 34%
Professionals 5%
Highs Earners6%
Savers 53%
Year 12 (Exp)
Year 7 Year 8 (Exp) Year 12 (Exp)
0500
100015002000250030003500
Market Size (KU)
14BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW – VODITE
Innovators MS %18%
Adopters MS%34%
Followers MS%48%
Year 7Innovators
MS %13%
Adopters MS%
24%
Followers MS%63%
Year 8 (Exp)
Innovators MS %3% Adopters MS%
6%
Followers MS%91%
Year 12 (Exp)
Year 7 Year 8 (Exp)
Year 12 (Exp)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Market Size (KU)
15BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
•Product Line Performance•MOST•MOVE•MOOLA – OOPS?•MEGA
16BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
MOVEMOST
Period 0
17BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
MOVE
MOST
Period 1
18BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
MOVE
MOST
Period 2
19BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
MOVE
MOST
Period 3
MOOLA
20BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
MOVE
MOST
Period 4
MOOLA
21BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
MOVE
MOST
Period 5
MOOLA
22BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
MOVE
MOST
Period 6
MOOLA
23BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
MOVE
MOST
Period 7
MEGA
24BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW – BRAND PROFITABILITY
Year 5 Year 6 Year 7$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
MOVEMOSTMOOLAMEGA
Brand Revenue
Year 5 Year 6 Year 7($10,000)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
MOVEMOSTMOOLAMEGA
Brand Contribution
25BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
SPI vs. R&D and Advertising % of Revenue
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
SPIR&DAdvertising
Backups
27BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
• Company Overview/Performance• Dominate Shoppers and Savers• Enter Vodites and Compete
• Industry/Competition• Firm S is our leading competitor in the Shoppers and Savers segment of the Sonite
Market• The Followers segment of Vodites is highly competitive with 3 Firms and 4 products –
Firm L leading in overall Market Share.• Consumer Review
• The Shoppers and Savers segments are expected to continue growing over the next 5 periods making up a combined 87% of the 3,432 unit (* 1000) Sonite market
• The High Margin, Low Volume Vodite Market is expecting to maintain strong growth over the next 5 periods with Followers making up 91% of the 903 unit (*1000) Vodite Market.
• Product Line Performance• MOST is the top selling brand by volume in the low margin Savers segment of the
Sonite market. With a 2 to 1 advantage in Market Share and Purchase Intentions over our closest competitor, our firm has established a dominant position by capitalizing on economies of scale.
• MOVE generates the highest retail sales of any other product and with a $50 million net contribution in Period 7, it remains our cash cow with a 3 to 1 advantage in Market Share and Purchase Intentions over our closest competitor.
• MEGA has not performed as well in the Vodite market since our launch in Period 6 due to increased competition in the Followers segment. However, with the cash flows our Firm is generating from the Sonite Market, we have the capital required to fund a high advertising budget to steal Market Share, raise Brand Awareness, and increase Purchase Intentions in the future.
STOCK PRICE EVOLUTION - FACTORS
Key Factors Y1 vs. Y0 Y2 vs. Y1 Y3 vs. Y2 Y4 vs. Y3 Y5 v. Y4 Y6 vs. Y5 Y7 v. Y6Net Contribution 21% -2% 47% 95% 11% -1% 38%Revenues 18% -7% 54% 68% 23% 31% 28%Market Share 0% -3% 5% 5% 1% 3% 5%R&D $0 $2,170 -$1,130 -$1,040 $6,115 -$1,735 -$3,040
SONITE MARKET TRENDS
R&D EXPENDITURES
COMPETITIVE REVIEW
SegmentsBrands MOST SOLO MOVE SOFT MEGA SEXY REAL LEAD LEGSSegment Market Share 63% 32% 65% 21% 18% 24% 2% 24% 21%Brand Awareness 65% 67% 64% 59% 26% 27% 9% 41% 23%Purchase Intentions 62% 31% 62% 23% 18% 21% 6% 20% 18%Advertising ($M) $1,790 $2,410 $2,030 $2,410 $2,210 $1,440 $250 $860 $680Sales Force Size 123 152 137 151 46 77 15 68 68Price $189 $225 $267 $300 $399 $475 $520 $569 $550Base Cost $132 $105 $149 $161 $267 $280 $267 $261 $261Unit GM $57 $120 $118 $139 $132 $195 $253 $308 $289Unit GM % Price 30% 53% 44% 46% 33% 41% 49% 54% 53%
Sonite - Savers Sonite - Shoppers Vodite - Followers
SegmentsBrands MOST SOLO MOVE SOFT MEGA SEXY REAL LEAD LEGS
High Market Share
High Unit Margin
High Market Share
Large Sales Force
High Ad Budget
High Market Share
High Unit Margin
High Unit Margin
High Purchase Intent
Low Base Cost
High Purchase Intent
High Ad Budget
Highest Sales Force
Highest Brand Awareness
High Ad Budget
Low Base Cost
Highest Purchase Intent
Low GM Low Market Share
Low Ad Budget
High Base Cost
Low Unit Margin
High Base Cost
Lowest Market Share
Low Ad Budget
Low Ad Budget
Smaller Sales Force
Low Purchase Intent
Smaller Sales Force
Lowest Ad Budget
Lowest Purchase Intent
Sonite - Savers Sonite - Shoppers Vodite - Followers
Strengths
Weaknesses
COMPETITIVE REVIEW
• Actions of Key Competitors• Firm S, with SOLO and SOFT, are heavily advertising in the both the Savers and
Shoppers segments in an effort to improve their Market Share and Purchase Intentions
• Firm S is also utilizing a large sales force to promote their product through their distribution channels
• Firm S maintains a high advertising budget in Vodites with SEXY and with the highest sales force, they lead in Market Share and Purchase Intent
• Competitor Strengths/Weaknesses• Sonites – Savers
• Firm S Strengths: High Unit Margin, Low Base Cost, and High Advertising Budget
• Firm S Weaknesses: Low Market Share and Low Purchase Intentions• Sonites – Shoppers
• Firm S Strengths: Large Sales Force and High Advertising Budget• Firm S Weaknesses: High Base Cost which drives a higher price to maintain
competitive margins• Vodites – Followers
• Firm S Strengths: Large Sales Force, and Highest Purchase Intentions• Firm S Weaknesses: High Base Cost• Firm L Strengths: Highest Unit Margin, Brand Awareness, and Market Share• Firm L Weaknesses: Low Advertising Budget
MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH
Sonite Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 (Exp) Y12 (Exp)Market Size (KU) 841 971 1234 1386 1746 2030 2323 2580 2728 3432Market Growth (YoY) 15% 27% 12% 26% 16% 14% 11% 6% 26%Explorers MS % 22% 18% 13% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 2%Shoppers MS % 17% 18% 18% 21% 25% 32% 32% 33% 34% 34%Professionals MS % 19% 22% 22% 19% 18% 17% 16% 11% 10% 5%Highs Earners MS % 12% 15% 16% 17% 15% 14% 12% 9% 9% 6%Savers MS % 29% 28% 30% 32% 33% 30% 34% 41% 44% 53%
Vodite Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 (Exp) Y12 (Exp)Market Size (KU) 60 112 206 322 510 903Market Growth (YoY) 87% 84% 56% 58% 77%Innovators MS % 68% 48% 30% 18% 13% 3%Adopters MS% 27% 41% 43% 34% 24% 6%Followers MS% 5% 11% 27% 48% 63% 91%
34BRIEF BUSINESS REVIEW
• Company Overview/Performance• Dominating largest Sonite consumer segments, Shoppers and Savers, with MOVE and
MOST• Our lead in Market Share and Net Contribution has given us the capital to enter Vodite
market and compete • Industry/Competition
• Firm S is our leading competitor in the Shoppers and Savers segment of the Sonite Market
• The Followers segment of Vodites is highly competitive with 3 Firms and 4 products – Firm L leading in overall Market Share.
• Consumer Review• The Shoppers and Savers segments are expected to continue growing over the next 5
periods making up a combined 87% of the 3,432 unit (* 1000) Sonite market • The High Margin, Low Volume Vodite Market is expecting to maintain strong growth
over the next 5 periods with Followers making up 91% of the 903 unit (*1000) Vodite Market.
• Product Line Performance• MOST is the top selling brand by volume in the low margin Savers segment of the
Sonite market. With a 2 to 1 advantage in Market Share and Purchase Intentions over our closest competitor, our firm has established a dominant position by capitalizing on economies of scale.
• MOVE generates the highest retail sales of any other product and with a $50 million net contribution in Period 7, it remains our cash cow with a 3 to 1 advantage in Market Share and Purchase Intentions over our closest competitor.
• MEGA has not performed as well in the Vodite market since our launch in Period 6 due to increased competition in the Followers segment. However, with the cash flows our Firm is generating from the Sonite Market, we have the capital required to fund a high advertising budget to steal Market Share, raise Brand Awareness, and increase Purchase Intentions in the future.