Teacher Shortage or Surplus: That Is the Question ...shortage and surplus in various types of school school systems, the LTI prepared a detailed questionnaire, asking for such information

DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 073 053 SP 006 007

TITLE Teacher Shortage or Surplus: That Is the Question.INSTITUTION Recruitment Leadership and Training Inst.,

Philadelphia, Pa.SPONS AGENCY National Center for Improvement of Educational

Systems (DHEW/OE), Washington, D. C.PUB FATE Jun 72NOTE 28p.

EDRS PRICE MF-$0.65 HC-$3.29DESCRIPTORS *Educational Needs; Occupational Surveys; *Teacher

Employment; *Teacher Selection; *Teacher Shortage;*Teacher Supply and Demand

ABSTRACTThis position paper discusses the question of teacher

shortage or surplus and related issues. Informal surveys wereconducted by the Recruitment Leadership and Training Institute (LTI)and other major educational organizations to provide a factual basisfor the study. A review of the surveys conducted by LTI and a summaryof published reports are presented. A chart depicting supply anddemand for beginning teachers in public schools from 1952 to 1971 andprojected to 1980 is included. Following the presentation of factualdata, new ways of looking at supply and demand and recommendationsare suggested. Recommendations concern preservice screening andtraining, inservice training and evaluation, and personal

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administration. A postscript indicating the availability of figuresand a bibliography are included. (MJM)

FILMED FROM BEST AVAILABLE COPY

U S DEPARTMENT OF HEALTHEDUCATION & WELFAREOFFICE OF EDUCA NUN

THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRODUCED EXACTLY AS RECM,i ROMTHE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORI(,INATING IT POINTS Of- VIEW OR OPINIONS SEATED DO NOT NECESSARILY

CD REPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EOUCATION POSITION OR POLICY

Teacher NCitSShortage cPor Surplus:That istheQuestionA Position Paperprepared by theRecruitment Leadershipand Training InstituteJune, 1972

Rodney SmithTallahassee, Florida

Ronald TyrrellBeachwood, Ohio

Edward WallersteinNew York, New York

Marian WarnerPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania

Dorothy WilliamsBoston, Massachusetts

The report presented herein wa; preparedpursuant to a Grant from the U.S. Office ofEducation, Department of Health, Educationand Welfare. However, the opinions expressedherein do not necessarily reflect the positionor policy of the U.S. Office of Education,and no official endorsement by the U.S.Office of Education should be inferred.

Design by Harold Pattek

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Quantity:

Introduction

A major task of the Recruitment LTI(Leadership and Training Institute),, through-out the two years of its existence has beenthe consideration of the problems relatingto the recruitment of edudational personnelduring a period of transition from shortageto over-supply. The Education Professions De-velopment Act was passed n June 1967 atthe height of national con ern about whatthe Act terms the "critics shortage" ofteachers. Since then, however, the situationhas changed rather drastically: many gradu-ates of teacher training institutions are havingdifficulty obtaining positions, and young peo-ple are being advised to consider careers infields other than education. The LTI wasaware, however, that the figures and the gen-eralizations might obscure and distract atten-tion from a number of important questionsconcerning both quantity and quality.

Given the fact that there may indeed be anoversupply of teachers on a general basis,what about specific specialties, such as earlychildhood education, special education, oreducation for careers? Are these fields stillsuffering from a shortage, and, if so, whatare the implications for teacher training andretraining? How have innovations in class-room techniques and equipment team-teaching, the utilization of paraprofe.sionals,computeiassisted instruction, informal class-rooms affected or been affected by theteacher supply and demand ratio? Whateffect have the critical financial problems ofmany (particularly urban) school systems had

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Quality:

on their hiring practices? Finally, why wasthe current teacher surplus not foreseen,and what can be done in the future to prz-vent significant imbalances between thesupply of teachers and the demand for theirservices?

What kinds of people are now staffing theschools, and what kinds are being recruitedto the field of education, particularly shroughsuch Feder efforts as the EPDA trainingprograms? What is the racial composition ofschool staffs? What is the ratio of mento women at various levels of educationalresponsibilit i? Are most teachers and admin-istrators the products of similar backgrounds,training and experience, or are there a vari-ety of avenues into the education professions?Has EPDA proved effective in attractingmany different kinds of people to service inthe public schools? Do the current systemsof training and certification actually succeedin screening out potentially able educationalpersonnel?

These and many other important issues havebeen examined and discussed by the Recruit-ment LTI. In order to provide a factualbasis for its study and for the developmentof recommendations to the Offi% of Education, the LTI made several informal surveysand reviewed the results of others, conductedby such major organizations as the NationalEducation Association. The results of theseefforts are reported here. As will be evident,this report does not pretend to provide a

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comprehensive analysis of the issues raisedabove, nor to offer solutions to the currentrecruitment problems. But it does suggestthat determining whether the United Stateshas a teacher shortage or surplus is too com-plex and too important a question tobe answered by an adding machine.

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Spring 1971

SurveysConductedby the LTI

The Recruitment Leadership and TrainingInstitute is one of a number of national ad-visory groups assembled by the Bureau ofEducational Personnel Development to pro-vide advice and technical assistance both tothe Bureau and to specific field projectswhich it ftnds. 1 his LTI, constituted underSection 504 of the Education ProfessionsDevelopment Act ("Attracting Qualified Per-srris to the Field of Education"), was askedto look beyond Section 504 projects andconsider recruitment practices and problemsin other BEPD projects and in education atlarge. Recognizing the very broad nature ofits assignment, the LTI attempted to gatherpertinent information from several informal,:imple surveys. Although there were variousindications teat the Bureau itself might engage in a comprehensive datagathering andanalysis effort, s:.ch an effort has not yettaken place. The findings of the LTI, there-fore, while admittedly far from complete,may be of considerable interest if only be-cause they underline the need for compilingaccurate information. Intelligent decisionsor even guesses must be extremely diffi-cult in the absence of or with grave inconsistencies in data from the field.

During the Spring of 1971, two members ofthe LTI panel attempted to compile infor-mation on vocational education training pro-grams funded under EPDA. Their purposewas to determine whether special effortswere being made to recruit diversified individ-uals for participation in training programs

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funded under Parts 1; and F of EPDA.

During the course of the survey it was discovered that while certain information wasprobably available within USOE, there wasno staff or time to compile it. Secondly, cer-tain information which could have beenuseful in describing program participants(such as their ages) was not available. Thirdly,information was not exchanged betweenoffices in the field responsible for the in-dividual projects; there was apparently noattempt to have USOE serve as a clearing-house for an exchange o'' information. And,finally, there was a lack of uniformity in thetypes of information collected and/or main-tained. Perhaps most disturbing was the dis-covery that because of its limited staff, USOEwas unable to see that its own guidelines werefollowed by institutions of higher education,or by state and local education agencies.

In the fall of 1971, a one-page questionnairewas sent to 50 school districts (25 in citiesof over 200,000 population; 25 in towns witha population of under 35,000, distributedthrowpout the nation). Of the 18 urban and18 rural (small town) school districtsresponding, 24 districts reported no shortageof teachers. Where vacancies existed, theymost often were in the areas of industrialarts, vocational and special education. Whileschool enrollment had dropped in 14 of theurban school districts, it had increased inmore than half of the small town school sys-tems, Some general conclusions based on this

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Spring 1972

survey were:Total enrollment is down in urban schoolsystems where there are more minoritygroup students than white students.In small town school systems, total studentenrollment has increased. Minority grouprepresentation on both teacher and studentlevels is minimal.Minority group personnel is employed ingreater numbers (in both absolute and relativeterms) in school systems where there arelarge numbers of minority group students.School systems hiring large numbers of min-ority group personnel tend to be in thesouthern and eastern states.

Although shortages exist mainly in urbanschools, areas of shortage tend to be thesame in all school districts chiefly, indus-trial arts, vocational and special education.

In order to gain a more precise picture ofshortage and surplus in various types of schoolschool systems, the LTI prepared a detailedquestionnaire, asking for such informationas racial and sex composition of educationalstaffs at all levels.

The questionnaire also included a number ofgeneral questions on, e.g., the impact of bud-get problems on hiring practices. Only nineof the 15 districts queried replied: four ofthese were in towns of under 30,000 popu-lation; two, between 50 and 100,000; andthree over 100,000 population. Four of thesedistricts reported that minority group stu-dents comprised more than half of the stu-

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dent population. The small sampie size andthe different systems used in reportirl datamao it ali but impossible to draw any gen-eral conclus;ons from this survey, but someof the points noted nay, however, be of interest.All but three of the respondents indicated asubstantial decrease in student enrollmentover the past several years. Whether this isassociated with a continuing exodus fromurban to subui ban areas is subject for furtherexploration.All districts reported using a sizeable numberof classroom aides, specialists and other sup-portive staff. These ranged from 10% to 30%of the total staff.Three of the nine districts indicated the useof teaching personnel with temporarycertification.Despite financial problems, no system antici-pated having to drop current employees, withthe possible exception of longterm suhsti-tutes. However, supportive personnel positions(art and music, e.g.) which become vacantthrough normal attrition may remain unfilled.If funds were available, school districts wouldhire teachers and support staff for thefollowing categories: (1) learning disabilities,(2) reading, (3) math and science, and (4)industrial arts.With the exception of these categories, manydistricts have more qualified applicants thanpositions open.

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Summaryof PublishedReports

In its investigation of the problem of teachersupply and demand, the LTI reviewed threerecent publications which describe this prob-lem. Included in the review were: EducationStaffing Patterns Update, 1972, published bythe National Center for Information onCareers in Education; Teacher Supply andDemand in the Public Schools, 1D71, issuedby the National Education Association; andthe report, Too Many Teachers: Fact orFiction?, published in 1972 by Phi DeltaKappa. The following pages contain a sum-mary of their findings.

In 1971, the supply of public school teacherssur )assed the record level reported in 1970.The number of graduates in 1970 was292,634;, in 1971 it jumped to 305,711. Thenumber of graduates is projected to total312,000 in 1972 and, if production continuesto Increase at the present rate, it will total412,000 by 1979.

At the same time the demand for teachersto handle increased enrollments is at thelowest point in recent history. In the fall of1971, enrollment growth required the addi-tion of approximately 19,000 teaching posi-tions in public elementary and secondaryschools. It is estimated that enrollmentgrowth will require the addition of only8,000 new positions in the fall of 1972 andno new positions in 1974. A reduction of1,000 teachers is projected for 1975. A pro-jected gradual increase of 1,000 added posi-tions after 1975 is insignificant in comparison

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with the more than two million publicschool teachers currently employed.

In 1971, the new supply or beginning ele-mentary school teachers wr, , approximately56,000 greater than the number of positionsfilled from this source. In secondary schools,the total 1971 new supply exceeded the totalnumber employed by approximately 47,000.

In a survey of the nation's 83 largest schoolsystems included in the NEA report, 66 sys-tems reported a total of 1,420 unfilled posi-tions in July 1971. The unfilled positionsrepresented 0.4 percent of the teachers inthose systems. This figure of 0.4 percent hasdeclined each year since 1967, when the corresponding figure was 2.4 percent.

On the following page is a chart depicting thesupply and demand for beginning teachers inpublic schools from 1952 to 1971 and pro;ected to 1980

Even though there is a substantial oversupplyof teachers nationwide, shortages in specificfields still remain. The acute shortage fieldsin many states remain essentially the sameas they have been in recent years earlychildhood, industrial arts and special education. Career education, as reflected by theacute shortage of vocationaltechnical instructors, is growing as more agencies andschool systems become aware of this nationalpriority in education. Additionally, reportsreflect an increasing sensitivity to the total

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,

2-SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR BEGINNING TEACHERS IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS FROM1952 TO 1971 AND PROJECTED TO 1980

Fall ofyear

Elementary school (000's) Secondary school (000's) Total (000's)Supply Demand Differ

enceSupply Demand Differ

enceSupply Demand Differ

ence

1 952 31 4 49 4 18 0 42 6 35.2 7 4 74 0 84 6 10,61953 31 2 50 3 19 1 37 4 36 1 1 3 68 6 86.4 17 81954 30.7 65 2 34.5 33 8 23.0 10.8 64.5 88 2 23.71955 31.4 75 9 44.5 34.4 52,1 17 7 65.8 128 0 62 21956 34.0 53 9 19.9 39 3 61 8 22 5 73 3 115.7 42 41957 :s6 7 71.8 35 1 45.0 51 0 6 0 81 7 122.8 41.11958 37 8 67 5 29 7 47.8 44.5 3.3 85 6 112 0 26.41959 39.8 SE 9 17.1 49 5 60 5 11 0 89.3 117 4 28 11960 43.8 66 8 23.0 53 7 55 3 1 6 97.5 122.1 24.61961 43.2 53.0 9 8 53 5 72.8 19 3 96.7 125 8 29 11962 48.2 59 6 11 4 58 5 62.2 3.7 106 7 121 8 15 11963 51.6 65,4 13.8 66.7 82 8 16.1 118 3 148.2 29 91964. 60 5 78 5 18.0 70 3 77 5 7 2 130 8 156.0 25 21965. 64.8 71,1 6.3 77.8 77 6 0 2 142 6 148.7 6.11966 . 64.7 88 3 23 6 84 6 78.8 5 8 149 3 167 1 17 81967 . 63.8 83 3 19.5 88.1 75 8 12 3 151 9 159 I 7 21968 ,. 76.1 87 0 10.9 99 4 90.6 8 8 175 5 177 6 2 11969.. 86.3 84,7 1 6 112 5 94 2 18,3 198 8 178.9 19.91970 . 91.5 61 3 30.2 126.5 79.7 01 141 0 77 01971 .. 103 4 46 9 56 5 125.7 78 4

4476.38

229 125 3 103 81972. 104 1 37 0 67 1 130 0 78.9 51 1 234 1 115 9 118 21973 . 108 6 32.2 76.4 135 7 833 524 244 3 115.5 128.81974 . 113 1 33 2 79 9 141 2 75 8 65 4 254 3 109 0 145.31975 118 2 38.3 79 9 147 7 69 9 77.8 265 9 108 2 157.71976 123 0 44 6 78 4 153.7 65 6 88 1 276.7 110 2 166,51977 128 0 54.3 73 7 159 9 57 0 102 9 287 9 111 3 176 61978 132 4 61 5 70 9 165 4 51 9 113 5 297 8 113 4 184 41979. 137 1 74.1 63 0 1 11 2 38 5 132 7 308.3 112 6 195 71980 139.7 174,5 314.2

NEA Research Bulletin, October 1971, p. 71.Used with the permission of the NEA Research

development of the student in the growingemergence of school psychologists, psychome-trists, elementary counselors, bilingual in-structors and remedial reading specialistspositions.

The NEA and NCICE surveys reported eithera low supply or an extremely low supply ofqualified teacher applicants in the followingassignments:

NCICE SURVEYVocational education(31 states)

Early childhoodeducation(28 states)Industrial arts(28 states)Mathematics(21 states)Special education(20 states)Elementary reading(19 states)Secondary reading(18 states)Bilingual education(18 states)Elementary counselors(18 states)

NEA SURVEYSpecial Education(33 states)Industrial Arts(27 states)Remedial reading andspeech correction(27 states)Assignments related todisadvantages children(25 states)Elementary schoollibrarians (23 states)Mathematics(15 states)

(Discrepancies exist between the two surveysbecause the NCICE survey was made one yearlater than the NEA survey and because surveymethods differed.)

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The NEA survey reported that the followingassignments most frequently have an over-supply of qualified applicants:Social studies(43 states)English language arts(35 states)Men teachers of healthand physical education(28 states)Elementary school teachers(24 states)Business education(16 states)Home economics(14 states)Foreign languages(14 states)Art(13 states)

It is interesting to note that none of thesethree national surveys provide any informa-tion on the need to recruit members ofminority groups to positions of responsibilityin the schools. Neither is information pro-vided on the ratios of men to women at various levels of responsibility in school systems.

The NCICE survey reported the followingmajor trends:

The growth of reading development programsat all levels: nineteen states indicated a needfor more elementary reading instructors. Shor-tages also exist in 18 states for secondaryreading specialists.

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A new sensitivity to all interest groups asevidenced by the requests for bilingual in-structors (18 states), environmental teachers(11 states), and ethnic studies instructors (6states).

A continuing deficit in the number of maleelementary teachers. Of the 13 states regis-tering a scarcity of upper elementary instructors,all but one state specified male instructorsonly.

The continuing growth in the field of earlychildhood education. Twenty-eight statesrecorded an increasing need for preschool,kindergarten, and early childhood educationpersonnel.An increasing demand for industrial arts andvocational-technical personnel. Twenty-eightstates registered a growth trend in industrialarts teachers while 31 states indicated a needfor more vocational-technical personnel.A shortage of qualified personnel in special ed-ucation. Twenty states have specified a demandfor more trained individuals in this under-staffed area. It should be understood that somestates include secondary reading teachers inthe special education category and there wasa need in 18 states for such individuals.

Development in the area of instructional sup-port. State officials indicated an emerginggrowth pattern in librarians (17) and techni-cians such as media specialists (9).Growing pupil personnel services in theschools. Eighteen states indicate increasingdevelopment in elementary counseling.Twelve states listed secondary counseling asan area of potential staff growth. Positions

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such as school psychologist (13 states),psychometrist (6 states), and social worker (8states) are also developing.An ongoing oversupply of social studies andlanguage arts instructors in the educationmarketplace. One state registered a need forsuch personnel.

All of the figures and trends reported up tothis point in the summary reflect the needsof the schools as they exist today. It is gen-erally accepted that tho surplus of teacherswould be drastically raduced if enoughmoney were available to permit schoolsystems to meet more adequately the needsof children. The NEA has established mini-mum standards of quality ;,1 educationalstaffing. These minimum standards call forbeginning teachers to:

Replace teachers having substandard qualifi:cations, reduce maximum class size to 24 illelementary schools and maximum teachingload to 124 in secondary schools.Enlarge offerings of kindergarten and nurseryschools to include the same proportion ofpre-school-age children as are now enrolledin the primary grades.

Enlarge offerings which have been curtailedbecause of teacher shortages.Reduce the impact of teachers misassigned.Enlarge the coverage of special educationprograms to students needing these services.

Fill positions created by normal turnoverand enrollment change.Enlarge the scope of school offerings.

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Provide resource personnel and supportiveprofessional services.

If these standards were met, much greaternumbers of teachers would be needed.They would have required the employmentof 729,000 beginning teachers in the fall of1971 instead of the 125,300 actually employed. However, because of the shortageof funds, schools failed to staff adequatelyto meet increased enrollments, to replaceteachers due to turnover, to replace thosewith substandard qualifications, to reduceovercrowded classes and to provide theinstructional services suggested to meet thedesired level termed "quality" by the NEA.

Until federal and state monies are allocatedto schools in sufficient amounts to providethe quality conditions set forth by the NEA,the overall yearly increase in demand forteachers will be approximately 8 percent ofthe total number of teachers, or about170,000. There is little doubt that the quality of education should be improved andthat new teachers should be hired. However,the record of the past two or three yearsshows that schools are reducing staffs ratherthan adding to them. The Phi Delta Kappareport concludes with a succinct summaryof the situation documented in all threestudies: "Given enough money, the conclusion may be that 'too many teachers' is fic-tion, but until the money problem is solved,it is fact."

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The Quality Criterion Model (NEA)

New Waysof Lookingat Supplyand Demandin Education

The traditional model for analyzing recruitment needs assumes that school systems wil:continue to recruit teachers from higher edu-cation institutions for schools very similar tothose operating today. It assumes (1) thatstaffing patterns will remain the same thatthere will continue to be 35 or so studentsper classroom teacher, for example; (2) thatthe tenure system will remain virtually unchanged; (3) that the present structure of theschools with a largely white, middleclassbase will remain the same, and (4) thattheir financial base will remain stable.Viewed in this light, the existence of anover-supply of teachers is indisputable. A num-ber of other models for analyzing over-supplyand shortage have been suggested, however,all of which prompt those concerned abouteducation to probe beyond the apparentlyobvious.

The immediate achievement of minimumstandards of quality education would requirea larger supply of beginning teachers thanthe number of 1971 graduates of the highereducation institutions training programs.These standards of minimum quality wouldrequire that new teachers be hired to:

Teach the added numbers of pupils normallyexpected.

Replace teachers normally terminating or interrupting their careers.Replace teachers who have not completed atleast a bachelor's degree.

Reduce class size or teacher loads.Undertake newly available comprehensive

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Career Education Model

Teacher Support Staff Training Model

educational programs and services.

The new emphasis now being placed on vocational, technical, and careeoriented educa-tional programs implies that supply and demand may not be easy to determine.How will "teacher" be defined, and who willqualify?How will "counselor" and other staff be defined? What about their roles? How nontraditional might their work setting, hoursand style become?

How are school systems to deal with the skilledpersonnel not holding degrees, blue collar in-dividuals low income group members? Whatwill the provisions be to prevent their exclu-sion as "teachers," under the new definitions,and/or to assure their advancement on thecareer ladder?

A set of criteria for the increased use of aidesand paraprofessionals particularly in theclassroom setting still needs to be developed.Although they cost a good deal less to trainand hire, yet they often hold a position ofresponsibility comparable with that of theteacher. The "man in the street" can be andhas been trained successfully as a teacher in,e.g., the Career Opportunities Program. Simi-larly, in Head Start Programs, parents havebeen utilized in classrooms.

Any decision to increase the ratio of teachersto students changing program priorities(such as placing a new emphasis on reading),or a decision to open "experimental" schools

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on a broad scale would all be importantfactors in changing the balance of supply anddemand. Whi.c it may be argued that noneof these developments is likely in view of fi-nancial pressure felt by most school systems,it would seem premature for educators to tietheir recruitment plans and projections tooclosely to a traditional model which may,sooner or later, no longer approximate theactual school program.

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Pre-service Screening and Training

Recommendations

In the course of its study and discussion of re-cruitment problems, the Recruitment Leadership and Training Institute has concluded thatlabels such as "shortage" or "surplus" may beextremely misleading. Even if the data and pro-jections on teacher supply and demand wereentirely reliable (an assumption not warranted by the experience of the LTI and others),mere quantitative analysis of the figurestends to oversimplify and distract attentionfrom some important issues which require examination and resolution. These issues are notnew, but they become more insistent in a timewhen many are beguiled into thinking that theteacher shortage has finally been solved. Theyare complex, and many are encrusted with theweight of tradition and usage, but, in thejudgment of this LTI, they cannot be ignoredor pushed aside while plans for recruiting fu-ture teachers are being made. The LTI, there-fore, recommends that the U.S. Office of Education, and other responsible and concernededucators, give serious consideratio-, to thefollowing questions:

1. Can more effective measures be devised andused to assess the potential of prospectiveteachers? For instance, might there not be apractice teaching period during the freshmanor sophomore years during which teaching ap-titude and ability might be tested?

2. How can relationships between school districtsand teacher training institutions be improvedin order to maintain a good supply/demandbalance and to assure that future teachers arebeing trained to meet the particular needs of

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In-service Training and Evaluation

Personnel Administration

local schools (especially those in urban areas)?3. Can procedures be developed to predict per-

formance of teacher applicants, particularly fordistricts which have more "qualified" applicantsthan positions open?

4, Can certification requirements be based in parton proven performance rather than accumulation of academic credits?

1. Can principals and other supervisors be pro-vided with better methods to evaluate teacherperformance, in order to assure that each member of the educational staff is assigned to aposition compatible with his interest and skill?

z. Can tenure be reevaluated the concept itself,as well as the requirements for obtaining andlosing it?

3. Can programs to retrain experienced teachersfor spec.fic areas of shortage be improved andexpanded?

1. Can more males be recruited to elementaryteaching? More females promoted to high-level administrative positions?

2. Should the teaching and administrative staffnot reflect the multi-ethnic composition ofthe student population?

3. How can the concept of differentiated staffingbe improved and built into the daytoday operation of schools?

4. Can Federal funding of school programs be inn.proved? There are indications that categoricalgrants impede sound educational planning:they restrict funds to areas which may not bethose of most critic& need within a given district; they frequently disrupt programs by be

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ginning after the start of a school year; andthey are responsible for establishing programswhich cannot be continued beyond the grantperiod, no matter how successful or necessarysuch programs may be.

An oversupply of teachers, where a shortage sorecently existed, presents educational administrators with an exciting and importantchallenge. the opportunity to define their per-sonnel needs and to match people to jobs infar more efficient and creative ways than hasusually been done.

A larger supply of teachers also makes it pos-sible to consider a number of options which ashortage formerly closed: reduction of classsize; extension of early childhood education;expansion of services to all children, particu-larly the handicapped and the gifted. Clearly,these options cannot be picked up until and unless the school financial crisis eases. Conversely,funds for education may continue to be inshort supply as long as the general public is ledto believe that schools are fully staffed andthat trained teachers are going begging. TheRecruitment Leadership Training Institute be-lieves that it is time to define educational personnel needs according to criteria of qualityrather than quantity.

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Postscript:The Figuresare Hardto Find

The Recruitment LTI recognizes that manyother efforts, both more intensive and moreextensive, have been made to gather informa-tion on school personnel, practices and policies.Its own limited attempts to collect and collatecurrent data proved valuable, however, notonly in illuminat;ng its discussion of recruit-ment needs, but in substantiating the verygrave difficulties which confront educationalresearchers and policymakers. The experienceof this LTI coincides all too exactly with thatof other investigators: reliable comparativedata on many school matters do not exist. Thefrustration has been clearly stated in many published reports. For instance, the Syracuse Uni-versity scholars who prepared a report on Fed-eral aid to education for the Mondale Com-mittee on Equal Educational Opportunity,declared:

At present, there is a deplorable paucity ofuseful information available to anyonepublic official researcher, educator orinterested citizen ... Despite rigorous effortsand substantial resources, we experiencedenormous difficulty collecting and comparing data ... In our survey differences inreporting posed constant problems. Thereare neither uniform definitions nor commonsources of educational information.1

Similarly, the National Education Association,in the report of its 1970 survey of teaching pos-

1. Berke, Bailey, Campbell and Sacks, Fed-eral Aid to Public Education: Who Benefits?(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govt. Printing Office,1971).

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itions, noted:Owing to the lack of precise data, it is diffi-cult to establish the specific effects of newconditions influencing some of the compo-nents of teacher demand ... The limitationsin the availability of data ... require thatthe results be interpreted with caution.2

At all three levels local, state and Federaleducational statistics are scattered amongvarious offices and agencies. Simply findingout what figures are available and where, whomaintains them and permits their release, con-stitutes a task of majo. proportions. Havinggained access to the records (itself no meanfeat, for permission is often granted only withreluctance), the researcher immediately en-counters dismaying problems of inconsistency,inaccuracy and incompleteness in data conypilation.

Any serious debate on such questions as supplyand demand in the education profession mustremain at the theoretical level in the absenceof accurate and up -to -date information fromthe field. Predictions of future needs andplanning for new programs are hardly possible

and indeed may be counter-productiveunless they are firmly based on a knowledge ofwhat is happening in the real world of teachers,schools and children. Indeed, it is safe to saythat the absence of such data had much to do

2. NEA Research Decision, Teacher Supplyand Demand in Public Schools, 1970 (Wash.ington, D.C.; NEA, 1970).

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with the failure to predict the present "oversupply." No matter how admirable the explicitgoals of the U.S. Office of Education or ofspecific school systems (e.g., a commitment toredressing the imbalance of minority groupmembers in administrative positions), the lackof easily obtainable and welldocumented factsmay implicitly refute the goals or make it impossible for them to be attained. For instance,following passage of the Education ProfessionsDevelopment Act, USOE established manyprograms intended to attract and train a widevariety of people for service in the schools. Butthere is no way of telling whether or not theseprograms have proved successful without speci-fic figures on, e.g., the number of minoritygroup members trained and employed.

The Recruitment LTI, therefore, stronglyurges the U.S. Off ice of Education to take thelead in the development of a comprehensivedatagathering model for use by local schooldistricts. Such a model should take intoaccount not only the general information (onstudents and staff, programs, revenues, etc.)needed for regular educational assessment andplanning, but the specialized information need-,occasioned by categorical grants, experi-mental programs, and so on. Having establishedthe groundwork for a comprehensive datagathering system, USOE would then be ableto systematize its reporting requirements andavoid the duplication of requests for informa-tion which understandably irritates school ad.ministrators. USOE should also undertake toorganize educational data its own and per.

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tinent data gathered by other governmentalagencies and have them readily available foruse by researchers and planners.

Statistics alone cannot correct current prob.lems or predict future trends, but they are anessential tool in mapping educational strategy.By illuminating the present, they help to clarifythe alternatives for the days ahead.

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Sources 1. Berke, Joel S., Bailey, Stephen K., Campbell,Alan X., and Sacks Seymour, Federal Aid toPublic Education: Who Benefits? (Washington,D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, April1971).2. Greenfield, Phyllis 0., Educational StaffingPatterns Update, EPIC No. 3 (Washington,D.C.: National Center for Information onCareers in Education, 1972)3. National Education Association, TeacherSupply and Demand in Public Schools,, 1970,Report 1970R 14 (Washington D.C.: NEA1970).4. National Education Association, "Prelimin.ary Report: Teacher Supply and Demand inPublic Elementary and Secondary Schools,Fall 1971 " (Washington, D.C.: NEA, 1971).5. Reiger, Harold, Too Many Teachers:Fact or Fiction. Phi Delta Kappa FastbackSeries, No. 5 (Bloomington,, Indiana: PDK,1972).

* U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1972 701-093/32 28