TE-3 Simulation Support Cell MPAT HA / DR Simulation Support Group Joint USCINCPAC J08 / Sweden – CELL ITS Project Simulation Model – CATS TYR.

TE-3 Simulation Support CellTE-3 Simulation Support Cell

MPAT HA / DRMPAT HA / DRSimulation Support GroupSimulation Support Group

MPAT HA / DRMPAT HA / DRSimulation Support GroupSimulation Support Group

JointJoint

USCINCPAC J08 / Sweden – CELL ITSUSCINCPAC J08 / Sweden – CELL ITS

ProjectProject

Simulation Model – CATS TYRSimulation Model – CATS TYR


Red Banner

Red Banner

Relief SuppliesRelief Supplies

CPG 3 CPG 3


13 Oct 4 Dec

C+10C+10 C+60C+60

TimelineTimelineTimelineTimeline

3 Oct 4 Oct

CTF CTF EstaEsta

bb

C C DayDay

DistrDistroo

Exist. Exist. FoodFood

5 Oct

HealtHealth Spth Spt

6 Oct

New New FooFoo

d d DelivDeliv

..8 Oct

All All LogLog

AvailAvail

12 Oct

Bulk Bulk of of

ForceForcess

End End of of

MsnMsn

1 Oct

C-2C-2 C-DayC-Day C+1C+1 C+2C+2 C+3C+3 C+5C+5 C+9C+9

Conduct HA / DR OperationsConduct HA / DR Operations

Transition to NGOsTransition to NGOs


TimelineTimeline

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25 Aug25 AugEarthquakeEarthquake

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C DayC Day


What we did …What we did …What we did …What we did …

• Used proven Used proven exerciseexercise simulation simulation– CATS TYR – Developed in Sweden based on extensive Peace CATS TYR – Developed in Sweden based on extensive Peace

Support and HA/DR experienceSupport and HA/DR experience– Model is available to all countriesModel is available to all countries– First use of exercise simulation (CATS TYR) in First use of exercise simulation (CATS TYR) in planning planning rolerole

• Ran a “baseline” Course-Of-Action out to C+30 Ran a “baseline” Course-Of-Action out to C+30 – Same COA start point (database) Same COA start point (database) – Faced issues / problems common to all COA GroupsFaced issues / problems common to all COA Groups

› Number of RefugeesNumber of Refugees› Camps (location) Camps (location) › Starting location of participating countriesStarting location of participating countries› Limited ports, air fields and long distancesLimited ports, air fields and long distances

– Same scenario as all three COA Planning GroupsSame scenario as all three COA Planning Groups


CATS TYR TEAMCATS TYR TEAMCATS TYR TEAMCATS TYR TEAM


SAMPLE CATS TYR DISPLAY

CATS TYR OPERATORREPORT TEXT

RCVD TAC REPORTS

REPORT ARCHIVES

TACTICAL DISPLAY

UNITS UNDER COMMAND

ORDERS GIVEN


v


Measles

Cholera/Measles

Cholera


Cholera

Cholera

Cholera


716 Orders given


70 Helicopter transport missions155 Air transport missions
















87 Local & Regional Sea transport missions


87 Local & Regional Sea transport missions


985 Land transport missions


985 Land transport missions


CATS-TYR Baseline COA CATS-TYR Baseline COA

FACTSFACTS and ASSUMPTIONSand ASSUMPTIONS


FACTSFACTS and ASSUMPTIONSand ASSUMPTIONS• Structure: Structure:

– CTF AirCTF Air– CTF LogCTF Log– CTF MaritimeCTF Maritime– CTF GroundCTF Ground

• Not enough available air lift to move available forces to all sites in Not enough available air lift to move available forces to all sites in sufficient time – Supply vs Forces (we chose 50 – 50 mix)sufficient time – Supply vs Forces (we chose 50 – 50 mix)

• ROK forces mobilized on 1 OCT – SROKA ROK forces mobilized on 1 OCT – SROKA

• Available forces on Parang Do mobilized on 1 OCTAvailable forces on Parang Do mobilized on 1 OCT– ROK: 50 trucks, 100 troopsROK: 50 trucks, 100 troops– ROP: 1100 trucks + police, medical, etc.ROP: 1100 trucks + police, medical, etc.– ICRC: 35 trucksICRC: 35 trucks

• Kimhae was APOD and Pusan was SPODKimhae was APOD and Pusan was SPOD

• Kimhae MOG could handle all available fixed-wing airliftKimhae MOG could handle all available fixed-wing airlift



FACTSFACTS and ASSUMPTIONS and ASSUMPTIONS (Continued)(Continued)


FACTSFACTS and ASSUMPTIONS and ASSUMPTIONS (Continued)(Continued)

• Military troops deployed w/ 5 days basic loadMilitary troops deployed w/ 5 days basic load

• Warehouses in Pusan were 80% fullWarehouses in Pusan were 80% full

• Airfields on Parang Do would not support fixed wing assets Airfields on Parang Do would not support fixed wing assets until C+3until C+3– Helicopter / ships bring first 3 days of supplies / troopsHelicopter / ships bring first 3 days of supplies / troops

• Time / distance / size factors used – no magicTime / distance / size factors used – no magic

• Did not forward deploy SROKA HQDid not forward deploy SROKA HQ

• Did not consider Korea’s day-to-day life/economy as far as Did not consider Korea’s day-to-day life/economy as far as shipping and airport capacitiesshipping and airport capacities


RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS


Greatest Challenges in Greatest Challenges in TE-3 ScenarioTE-3 Scenario

Greatest Challenges in Greatest Challenges in TE-3 ScenarioTE-3 Scenario

• Transport of Rations, Water and ShelterTransport of Rations, Water and Shelter• Deployment of Forces vs. LogisticsDeployment of Forces vs. Logistics• Distribution of SuppliesDistribution of Supplies• MedicalMedical


Baseline COA Results Baseline COA Results Rations, Water, Shelter Rations, Water, ShelterBaseline COA Results Baseline COA Results Rations, Water, Shelter Rations, Water, Shelter

• ROK refugee camps – no significant ROK refugee camps – no significant shortagesshortages

• ROP coast – some shortagesROP coast – some shortages• ROP interior – severe shortagesROP interior – severe shortages

– Poor road and bridge conditionsPoor road and bridge conditions– Limited ports and airfields early in operationLimited ports and airfields early in operation– Misallocated supply distribution (Ross Camp)Misallocated supply distribution (Ross Camp)

› Red BannerRed Banner› PAO Possible solutionPAO Possible solution

DataDataDataData

Area Camp Name

Current On-Hand

RationsBeginning

Rations ADDEDTotal

Rations

Total Refugees in Camp

Days Ration

/Refugee

Mokpo 1 170972 5000 218745 223745 3012 74.3

2 15336 5000 218754 223754 5000 44.8

3 171850 5000 223734 228734 5000 45.7

5 82434 5000 162755 167755 5000 33.6

6 75064 5000 154762 159762 5000 32.0

7 205003 5000 284765 289765 5000 58.0720659 30000 1263515 1293515 28012 46.2

Kunsan 345956 25000 742913 767913 25000 30.7

Cheju 515730 45000 1195998 1240998 44900 27.6

Parang Do Burnie 17365 5000 60000 65000 5000 13.0

Central Highland 39824 35000 339000 374000 17900 20.9Davenport 32696 2000 49991 51991 2000 26.0Dong Nam

Po 1 56125 50000 498496 548496 50000 11.0Dong Nam

Po 2 42356 50000 484597 534597 50000 10.7Stony-Head 68787 5000 112999 117999 5000 23.6Westhead 81004 3000 34555 37555 3000 12.5Young Do 0 50000 433175 483175 50000 9.7

338157 200000 2012813 2212813 182900 15.9

On Hand Rations

Starting Rations Added Total Rations

Total Personnel in Camp

Rations/ person

Totals 3,502,847 400,000 8,417,665 11,030,478 291,086 37.9

Thru Thru C+30C+30Thru Thru C+30C+30

IssueIssue

No IssueNo Issue


Baseline COA ResultsBaseline COA ResultsDeploymentDeployment

Baseline COA ResultsBaseline COA ResultsDeploymentDeployment

• Pusan became congestedPusan became congested– Could not accommodate all available sealift at same timeCould not accommodate all available sealift at same time

– Required staging of shipsRequired staging of ships

• Using limited airlift for troop deployment delays Using limited airlift for troop deployment delays

relief of suffering, but … relief of suffering, but …

• ROK Forces / ICRC deployed to ROP prior to C-DayROK Forces / ICRC deployed to ROP prior to C-Day– Decreased initial response timeDecreased initial response time

– In-place prior to Typhoon NariIn-place prior to Typhoon Nari

– Overlooked by some groupsOverlooked by some groups


Baseline COA ResultsBaseline COA ResultsDistribution of SuppliesDistribution of SuppliesBaseline COA ResultsBaseline COA Results

Distribution of SuppliesDistribution of Supplies• Repetitive Handling (2 - 5% Loss)Repetitive Handling (2 - 5% Loss)• More pallets available than daily airlift can handleMore pallets available than daily airlift can handle• TransportationTransportation

– Timelines longer than expected Timelines longer than expected › C-130 speedC-130 speed› MOGMOG› Download of supplies in SPOD / APODDownload of supplies in SPOD / APOD› Distro of supplies in the camps and central ROPDistro of supplies in the camps and central ROP

– Method of transport (combinations are limitless)Method of transport (combinations are limitless)› Ground vs AirGround vs Air› Air vs. SeaAir vs. Sea› Long distances in AsiaLong distances in Asia


Baseline COA Results Baseline COA Results MedicalMedical

Baseline COA Results Baseline COA Results MedicalMedical

• Pallet composition limited responsePallet composition limited response– Only 10% of the pallets contained medsOnly 10% of the pallets contained meds– Pallets constructed before SOF assessmentPallets constructed before SOF assessment

• 30 times as many minor illness as serious30 times as many minor illness as serious• Medical support slow to show improvementMedical support slow to show improvement


0

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Serious Illness

Deaths & Missing

Baseline COA Results Baseline COA Results Human Suffering*Human Suffering*

Baseline COA Results Baseline COA Results Human Suffering*Human Suffering*

*Using 10% Med in each pallet*Using 10% Med in each pallet

Little Impact

Little Impact


COA 3COA 3RESULTSRESULTS

COA 3COA 3RESULTSRESULTS


CPG 3CPG 3CPG 3CPG 3

• Ran simulation thru C+12Ran simulation thru C+12• Allowed ROP Airfield use at C DayAllowed ROP Airfield use at C Day

– Some foreign airlift direct to ROP earlySome foreign airlift direct to ROP early

• Developed detailed COA thru C+3Developed detailed COA thru C+3• SROKA Deployment via Pusan Sealift on C+2SROKA Deployment via Pusan Sealift on C+2• ROKN LSTs used for supply distro between ROKN LSTs used for supply distro between

ROK and ROPROK and ROP• Engineers deployed very earlyEngineers deployed very early


CPG 3CPG 3ResultsResultsCPG 3CPG 3

ResultsResults

• Supplies arrived in ROP earlySupplies arrived in ROP early• Better Med resultsBetter Med results• Infrastructure repaired earlierInfrastructure repaired earlier• Transition to overland transport earlierTransition to overland transport earlier• Early arrival of security force had limited Early arrival of security force had limited

impact on final outcomeimpact on final outcome• Significant improvement over baseline COASignificant improvement over baseline COA


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CPG 3 Results CPG 3 Results Human Suffering*Human Suffering*

CPG 3 Results CPG 3 Results Human Suffering*Human Suffering*

*Using 50% Med in each pallet*Using 50% Med in each pallet


Simulation Simulation Strengths and WeaknessesStrengths and Weaknesses

Simulation Simulation Strengths and WeaknessesStrengths and Weaknesses

• StrengthsStrengths– Infrastructure DetailsInfrastructure Details– APOD / SPOD CapacitiesAPOD / SPOD Capacities– Time / Space VisualizationTime / Space Visualization– Transportation TimelinesTransportation Timelines– Degraded Road ConditionsDegraded Road Conditions– Accounts for Illness / DeathAccounts for Illness / Death– Hospital CapacitiesHospital Capacities– Detailed Data Output (Log)Detailed Data Output (Log)– Distributed Capabilities Distributed Capabilities – Wargame planWargame plan– Mission RehearsalMission Rehearsal

• WeaknessesWeaknesses– Time IntensiveTime Intensive– Manpower IntensiveManpower Intensive– Cannot replicate C2 / CommsCannot replicate C2 / Comms– Database Accuracy Importance Database Accuracy Importance

(GIGO)(GIGO)– Extensive PreparationExtensive Preparation– Needs Trained OperatorsNeeds Trained Operators– Not an analysis toolNot an analysis tool


What this means to you …What this means to you …What this means to you …What this means to you …

• Simulation Helps Planning Process By …Simulation Helps Planning Process By …– Providing access to specific, detailed information… that CPG’s Providing access to specific, detailed information… that CPG’s

didn’t have time to developdidn’t have time to develop

– Indicating trends, choke points and problem areasIndicating trends, choke points and problem areas

– Visualizing COA (Time & Space)Visualizing COA (Time & Space)

– Clarifying complex issuesClarifying complex issues

› Sometimes raises more questions for the planner than it Sometimes raises more questions for the planner than it

answersanswers

““Garbage in is garbage outGarbage in is garbage out””Cdr WohlschlegelCdr Wohlschlegel


Questions?Questions?Questions?Questions?

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell MPAT HA / DR Simulation Support Group Joint USCINCPAC J08 / Sweden – CELL ITS Project Simulation Model – CATS TYR.

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