Challenges to the Nordic Model: a Swedish perspective Pontus Braunerhjelm Societal Challenges and Clusters: the Scandinavian Model vs other Models 6 September 2013
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Challenges to the Nordic Model: a Swedish perspectivePontus Braunerhjelm
Societal Challenges and Clusters: the Scandinavian Model vs other Models
6 September 2013
TCI Annual Global Conference 2013
Challenges to the Nordic Model: A Swedish perspective
Pontus Braunerhjelm, Managing Director Swedish Entrepreneurship ForumProfessor in Economics, The Royal Institute of Technology
• International trends• What makes a cluster?• The Nordic model/position• Cluster policies
Global manufacturing shares, 1970-2010
1990, G7
65%
China, 3%
6 risers,
5%
RoW
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Wor
ld m
anuf
actu
ring
sha
re
Source: unstats.un.org; 6 risers = Korea, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey, Poland
1990, G7
65%
3%
6 risers,
5%
RoW
47%
China, 18%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Wor
ld m
anuf
actu
ring
sha
re
Source: unstats.un.org; 6 risers = Korea, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey, Poland
•7 ‘losers’.•7 ‘risers’.•RoW = little change
… and a growing role for services ...
4Source: OECD-WTO, Trade in Value Added database,
Share of service value added in total gross export, 1985-2009
Patent applications 1995-2009
Japa
nU.S
.
EU15
China
Kore
a
Russia
Canad
a
Isra
el
Indi
a
Brazil
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
Business investment in KBC and tangible assets (% adjusted GDP, 2010)
Source: OECD calculations based on INTAN-Invest, Eurostat and multiple national sources.
Increasing investments in KBC
6
New firms matter – they account for 35-65% of job creation The role of young firms (less than 5 years old) for job creation, average from 2001
to 2011.
Employment growth in internationally traded sectors, Sweden, 2005-2015
Källa: Bjorvatn m fl. (2008)
”Silicon Valley is probably the only place on earth not trying to copy Silicon Valley”
Robert Metcalfe, 1998
What makes a cluster?
Copycats – but what about the igniting spark and growth potential for clusters?
Serendipity?
Role for policy?
Limited to providing the infra-structure of the cluster?
What makes a cluster?
3-stage processes – Knowledge base, entrepreneurs and service providers (VC, legal competencies, etc.)
Variety, heterogeneity and selection mechanisms - dynamics
Pre-existing conditions – unpredictable whether it leads to agglomeration and consolidation of clusters. Once seed is planted – is the local system fit to emerge and grow?
Highly influenced by policy - not only climate (Hollywood) or individual brilliance (Silicon Valley)
Immigration and growthIncome per person and predicted openness to migrants
Stage
Share of value added
Pre-fab services Post-fab servicesFabrication
1970s & 1980s value distribution
‘Smile curve’: Distribution of value
Post-1990 value distribution
Economy Ease of Doing Business Rank
Starting a Business
Dealing with Construction
PermitsRegistering
Property Getting Credit Enforcing Contracts
Denmark 5 11 2 2 9 20
Norway 6 13 7 3 25 4
Finland 11 17 12 8 16 9
Sweden 13 19 8 13 16 17
Iceland 14 15 15 5 16 3
Average , Norden 9,8 15 8,8 6,2 16,4 10,6
Averrage, OECD- high income 29,3 16 16 16 14,4 15,9
The Nordic ModelAn international comparison
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Real
GD
P gr
owth
, per
cent
Expenditures on R&D in relation to GDP, percent
R&D-investments and Growth, 2001-2009OECD-countries
Business opportunities and abilities
Expected employment growth in new firms, 2010–2012
20 or more employees in the coming five years
Change of Share of Chinese Imports
Selected European Countries
2000 2005 20100.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
(Source: UNCTAD (2011), Ketel 2012.)
Sweden
Germany
Switzerland
Finland
NorwayDenmark
Share of Country in Chinese Imports, Level in 2000 = 1
Cluster Policy FrameworkHolistic
Knowledge accumul/upgradin
g
Knowledge conversion
Knowledge critical mass
Policy-areas
• Education
• R&D
• Academic e-ship
• Autonomy
• IPR
• Mobility
• Evaluation
Policy-areas
• Entrepreneurship
• Growing firms, gazelles, iFDI
• Links to universities, collaboration, partnership
• Public sector
• Mobility
• VC, IPRs
• Internationalization
Policy-areas
• Mobility
• Infrastructure
• Universities – local feedback
• Partnership
Lessons for policy-makers
“at every step of the way, there were choices – political and economic – that provide real alternatives…path dependency ..is not a story of inevitability…”
North 1990
Related Documents
