TCAC NEW DELHI –METHODS AND PROCEDURES USED FOR PREDICTION DR RAJENDRA KUMAR JENAMANI Director In-Charge Meteorological Watch Office (MWO) INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT New ATS Building (Room No.-211, 2nd Floor), Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport, New Delhi-110037 E-MAIL [email protected]/ [email protected]
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TCAC NEW DELHI –METHODS AND PROCEDURES USED FOR PREDICTION
DR RAJENDRA KUMAR JENAMANI
Director In-ChargeMeteorological Watch Office (MWO)
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENTNew ATS Building (Room No.-211, 2nd Floor),
Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport, New Delhi-110037
OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND TRACKING OVER SEA FROM INSAT
PREDICTION TECHNIQUES
COMMUNICATIONS
ISSUE OF TCAC ADVISORIES AS PER ICAO NORMS
RECENT DEVELOPMENT
CONCLUSIONS
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISTRIBUTION
11
18
33
5.5
1.5
11
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
NW A
TLANTI
CNE
PACIF
ICNW
PACIF
IC
BAYARABIA
N SEA
SIOSW
PACIF
IC
AREA
% O
F G
LOB
AL
FREQ
UEN
CY
ICAO TCACsTCAC Area of Responsibility Tropical Cyclone
Season• DARWIN - South-East Indian November-April
Ocean• HONOLULU - Central Pacific May - November• MIAMI - Eastern Pacific May – November
• NADI - Southern Pacific November - April
• NEW DELHI- 1) Bay of Bengal April - June2) Arabian Sea October - December
• TOKYO - Western Pacific January - December(including South China Sea)
Brief HistoryBrief HistoryICAO, Met Div., Montreal, Canada, Meet, 09ICAO, Met Div., Montreal, Canada, Meet, 09--26 Sept., 2002 recommended 26 Sept., 2002 recommended TCAsTCAs for for International Civil Aviation in specified International Civil Aviation in specified format.format.IMD agreed to recommendation on 12IMD agreed to recommendation on 12--0808--03.03.IMD HQ asked RSMC, CWD located at the HQ IMD HQ asked RSMC, CWD located at the HQ to take the additional work of TCAC to take the additional work of TCAC w.e.fw.e.f. . 2525--0808--03 for ensuing cyclone season.03 for ensuing cyclone season.It also issued order to all It also issued order to all RMCRMC’’ss, , MWOMWO’’ss and and DDGM(WF) regarding issuance of TCA for DDGM(WF) regarding issuance of TCA for ICAOICAO
Completing seven yearsCompleting seven years
CLASSIFICATION OF CYCLONE IN NIO
Less than 17 knots ( < 31 kmph)
17 to 27 knots ( 31 to 49 kmph)
28 to 33 knots ( 50 to 61 kmph)
34 to 47 knots ( 62 to 88 kmph)
48 to 63 knots ( 89 to 118 kmph)
64 to 119 knots ( 119 to 221 kmph)
120 knots and above ( 222 kmph and above)
1. Low Pressure Area
2. Depression
3. Deep Depression
4. Cyclonic Storm
5. Severe Cyclonic Storm
6. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
7. Super Cyclonic Storm
Associated wind speed in the CirculationTypes of Disturbances
CYCLONIC STORMS OVER BAY AND ARABIAN SEA
6
14
21
51
3841
30
39
79
98
41
20 0
6
19 19
3 3
7
2629
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12MONTHS
FREQ
UEN
CY
Series1Series2
Figure 4.5 11-Years running means of Annual frequency of disturbances with the minimum intensity of Depressions and above formed over the Indian region (1891-
Figure 4.6 11-Years running means of frequency of disturbances with the intensity of depressions and above formed in the month of May, October & November
Analyzing the past damages and inventorying the population and
property at risk
INDIA-55-74%
B’DESH-10-21%(HIGHEST FOR SEVERE CS)
S’LANKA-2-4%M’MAR-3-13%
% SHARES OF GLOBAL FREQUENCY IN THE LITTORAL COUNTRIES OF THE BAY OF BENGAL
ONLY 3.4 % CROSSED INDIA AND 0.9 CROSSED BANGALADESH WHILE IT CAUSED 53% AND 23 % OF
HUMAN DEATHS RESPECTIVELY (TOTAL 76%)
3.4
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
INDIA BGDSH MYNAMAR SRILANKA IN THE SEACOUNTRY
%
FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO DISASTROUS SURGES IN BANGLADESH
• SHALLOW COASTAL WATER• CONVERGENCE OF THE BAY• LOW AND FLAT TOPOGRAPHY• HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES• THICKLY POPULATED LOW LYING ISLNADS• FAVOURABLE CYCLONE TRACKS• CORIOLIS EFFECTS• INNUMERABLE NUMBER OF INLETS
INCLUDING WORLD LARGEST RIVER SYSTEMS(GANGA-BRAHMAPUTRA-MEGHNA
• SOCIO-ECONMIC FACTOR
20982404.5 ( Cl. No. )15 Nov 1998 ( VSCS )
3-Feb20-Aug17974404.56 Nov 1996( SCSCHW )
3.5202021912-920696.59 May 1990 ( SCSCHW )
3.52020-Oct8930-942656.58 Nov 1989 ( SCSCHW )
12020996949614 Nov 1984 ( SCSCHW )
3.5202183657612 May 1979 ( SCSCHW )
56026941-91964719 Nov 1977 ( SCSCHW )
surge ( m )(km)(km)(m/s)(hPa)(m/s) No.Date( category)
FCST PSN +12hrs: 140000 N1030 / E 08630Max. Wind +12hrs: 45 KTFCST PSN +18hrs: 140600 N1100 / E 08600Max. Wind + 18 hrs: 50 KTFCST PSN + 24hrs: 141200 N1130/ E 08530Max Wind +24hrs: 55 KTNEXT MSG: 200031213/1800 Z
BRIEF OUTLINE ON RECENT ADVISORIES
• AKASH • GONU
IMDIMD-- Adding New Adding New Technology for further Technology for further
Improving Cyclone Improving Cyclone Monitoring/FORECASTING Monitoring/FORECASTING Observational NetworkObservational Network–– New Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface StationsNew Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface Stations–– Existing SExisting S--band Cyclone Detection Radars to be band Cyclone Detection Radars to be
replaced with Doppler mode radarsreplaced with Doppler mode radars–– Strengthening of RS/RW Strengthening of RS/RW
Weather ForecastingWeather Forecasting–– IMD plans to procure a state of the art computing IMD plans to procure a state of the art computing
systemsystem–– Implementation of High resolution forecast models Implementation of High resolution forecast models