TB transmission rates: some real data at last! Carlos Rouco & Daniel Tompkins
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TB transmission rates: some real data at last!
Carlos Rouco & Daniel Tompkins
Background
> 30 mill
Bovine tuberculosis RESERVOIR
How infection behaves in a wild population?
bTb
Home range Sex
Density Contacts
Objective
To what spatial extent do TB infected individuals spread the disease?
Study site
Methods
100 traps 40 m space
~13 ha
4-nights
trapping/month from April 2012
to April 2013 Density
Methods 40 collars / grid
Methods
®
x 2 x 2
x 2 x 2
x 2 x 2
Methods
9 pos/ha
9 pos/ha
6.8 pos/ha
7.5 pos/ha
Mean Density
DIFFERENT TO LOCAL STRAIN!!
Methods bTb INFECTION
Nugent et al. 2013
Methods
Trapped and euthanized
Methods
Secondary infections
Methods
Methods
100% MCP Methods
100% MCP Methods
100% MCP Methods
Methods
Transmission rate
Results
96
111
80
402 necropsies
115
242
296
211
225
974 possums in
7983 t/e
Results
2nd Infected 0
1
0
1
Results
2nd Infected
Results
Transmision rate
0.004
0.004
0
0
Conclusions
• No CLEAR density effect • No CLEAR social status effect • LOW transmission rate 4/1000 • Other factors (e.g. seasonality,
genetics)
Where to NOW?
• Analysis on an individual basis to look for determinants of infection
• Natural infections to monitor • 2 more REPLICATES • 2 different doses
Acknowledgments
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