Tasmania Magazine FINAL (web)

TA SM N

IA

AAND ITS

FUTURE PROSPECTS

TASMANIAand itsfuture

prospectsWritten by Jasper Wong

Photographs by Kevin Leong

No part of this magazine may be used orreproduced in any manner without written permission from the creator,execept in the context of reviews.

Every reasonable attempt has been madeto identify owners of copyright. Errorsor omissions will be corrected insubsequent editions.

Special thanks to:

Photography & Art DirectionKevin Leongwww.kevinleongg.com

Cover Design & LayoutVictoria Navictorianagraphicdesign.tumblr.com

Research & WritingJasper Wongregionalthinker.wordpress.com

This project was initiated by:

contents

A snapshot of the state 6The decline of manufacturing 13Youth unemployment 21Political action 25The way forward 26

BA of Arts (Photography) RMITJerry GaleaPauline AnastasiouMonty ColesBonnie SavageLauren GaleaErieta AttaliRyan RichardsonJared ClaytronSally TanLeong San Woo

Kevin Leong

A snapshot of the state Tasmania

and its future prospects

has always sat outside the concept of Australia as a nation. The most obvious attribute, apart from its small size, is also it’s geographical separation from mainland Australia. Tasmania’s untouched natural beauty is well-known among Australians as 45% of its land is marked as reserves, national parks or World Heritage sites. Yet, a darker picture lies behind it’s pristine scenery and untouched forests. Social indicators are notoriously in the doldrums, having the dubious accolade of the highest unemployment rate across other states with the 2011 census revealing that “over a third of Tasmanian households derive their sole or primary source of income from a Commonwealth government payment: old-age pension, disability, supporting parent, and of course, unemployment.”

TASMANIA

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Tasmanians it seems, had enough of this situation. We see, in the 2014 state election back in March where after 16 years of Labor rule, a 12.4% swing in votes to the Liberal Party which helped them win majority of the seats in parliament, a phenomena replicated in other state elections held on the mainland. The common grouse was that Labour has mismanaged the economy, as it sits comfortably in power for 16 years. However, the Labour party hasn’t been completely calling the shots since 2002, where a watershed election brought the rising stars of Green parties, The Tasmanian Greens, to hold an influential balance-of-power in parliament with both major parties unable to secure a majority. To pinpoint the cause of the current malaise in the Tasmanian economy brings up politically-loaded answers so it’s perhaps best to examine on the ground effects of the general patterns of malaise affecting the state of the economy.

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From the period of 1990-2009, there has been 3 major structural trends in the Tasmanian economy. The first, was the increase in the share of public administration and safety, health and education (17.2% to 22.7%), knowledge intensive business services (13.7% to 17.4%), a sharp drop in manufacturing (21.8% to 11.4%) with the increase in the share of public administration and safety. Health and education mostly attributed to an increase in Health Care and Social Assistance.

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the decline ofmanufacturing.

One cannot talk about Tasmanian manufacturing without mention of the forestry industry. And one certainly cannot avoid the role of government intervention in terms of regulations and envi-ronmental laws when accounting for the demise of Tasmania’s woodchip industry. All in all, it is often not realised that despite being a controversial and divisive issue in Tasmania, the amount of jobs and value that the forestry industry contributes to the Tasmanian economy remains a minute percentage. A research paper from the Australia Institute for example, estimates employment in the industry to be less than 2,000.

Yet despite this, forestry is often seen as an important industry to the Tasmanian economy with subsidies from the federal government propping up an industry that is becoming uncompetitive with its more cost-friendly Southeast Asian neighbours. Macintosh from the Australia Institute for example, argues against the unproportionate subsidies given to the industry despite it’s relatively small role in the economy and job provision. However, given the demise of the manufacturing industry, with mining equipment makers moving production overseas, the structural change in the economy is creating challenges for the residents of previous booming towns like Burnie.

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Burnie, and Tasmania on the whole appears to be a microcosm of the decline of the manufacturing industry happening across the country. “Since 1990–91, employment in manufacturing in Australia has declined by around 13 per cent. In Tasmania, the decline over this period was much more severe, at around 44 percent. That is, the proportional decline in manufacturing jobs has been over three times greater in Tasmania than in Australia as a whole.

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youthunemployment.

A national survey of young people by Mission Australia in 2013 has also found that unemployment has jumped to the 3rd most important national issue for Tasmanian youths. There just aren’t enough entry-level jobs for the younger population and that exacerbates youth inter-state emigration even if these youths had wanted to stay in their home state. The Australian Magazine recently did a profiling of the ‘lost youths’ of Burnie, which hold the record for the highest youth unemployment across the country at 20%.

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Lauren Galea, 32, moved out of Tasmania for more job

prospects in procurement. She still feels a sense of belonging

for Tasmania but recognizes that there is little opportunities

for career advancement there.

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Tasmania youths generally have a sense of belonging to their home state, which was cited as a positive aspect of Tasmania in a survey conducted by Tasmanian Youth Forum in 2013 while the lack of opportunities was a considerable negative aspect of Tasmania. According to The Australian, between 2009 and 2013, “22,700 Tasmanians aged 20-34 moved interstate,” as the proportion of young adults, normally the most productive labor age group of an economy steadily decreasing. This trend hasn’t changed since the 00’s and no government has taken it upon themselves to reverse the damaging outflow of talent. This makes the demographic issue a critical one that goes hand-in-hand with an increase in social service handouts, and a high dependency ratio. Geographical sparseness of its residents have economic consequences, with the theory of economies of scale. Most Tasmanians living in the state itself are geographically dispersed with 58% of Tassies living outside the greater capital city area. This means that it is hard to have a critical level of population concentrated in one area to increase economic activity.

political action.Just this year, the government has finally decided that the state’s inability to withhold talent was

a problem and have recently announced that “they planned to grow the population by more than 135,000 and have announced $500,000 to help lure business and skilled migrants to the state.” A

critical population is needed to revitalize an economy and whether the new target sources of immgration is to come from interstate or overseas migration remains to be confirmed. The strategy

to economic growth linked to population growth however, is a proven solution and whether it becomes successful or not will depend on how encompassing the government’s strategy will be.

the way forward.

The current Hodgman government rode to its victory on the back of promising to unlock the potential for the tourism industry by promoting sustainable development. With Hodgman taking on the mantle of Tourism minister and minister for Hospitality and events, it appears that Hodgman will make the development of the tourism industry one of the defining policy of his term. This step is long overdue. Tasmania has always been known for its fine produce and unique position in the culinary world. There are many gems in Tasmania Tourism industry that hasn’t been fully developed and nurtured. This means that despite the uniqueness of its potential, it hasn’t been translated into comparative advantage in terms of attracting a critical mass of tourist, either from the mainland or from other countries.

Take for example, the wine industry. According to a report by the state government, Tasmanian wines sells at “super-premium prices and above” –defined as between $15-$25 AUD – an approximate 2.5 times the Australian average since 2007. As West hazarded, “increasing its present 0.5% to over 2% of total wines produced in Australia would create more than 2000 jobs.” The trick then is for a concerted effort by businesses and the state government to attract investment, increase productivity and mechanization of the winemaking process.

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Luckily for Tasmania, the state premier has already announced to grow visitor numbers from the current 1 million to 1.5 million by 2020, tackling the issue of growing ferry passengers from the mainland as well as improving infrastructure and access to national parks and World Heritage areas. New figures has shown that this strategy may already have an effect, with the Tasmanian Tourism Snapshot for the year registering a 10 per cent increase in visitors as well as increased tourism spending from the same period last year. Let’s hope that this will be the lifeline that Tasmania needs and that this growth is sustainable for the future.

© Kevin Leong