Targeting Investments in Resource Conservation with RIOS (Resource Investment Optimization System) Adrian Vogl ([email protected]) Heather Tallis, Stacie Wolny, Rich Sharp, James Douglass, Doug Denu, Silvia Benitez, Fernando Veiga, Juan Sebastian Lozano, Paulo Petry, Jorge Leon, Joao Guimaraes, Eddie Game
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Targeting Investments in Resource Conservation
with RIOS (Resource Investment Optimization System)
Adrian Vogl ([email protected]) Heather Tallis, Stacie Wolny, Rich Sharp, James Douglass, Doug Denu,
Silvia Benitez, Fernando Veiga, Juan Sebastian Lozano, Paulo Petry, Jorge Leon, Joao Guimaraes, Eddie Game
Watersheds as Green Infrastructure
The Promise of Water Funds
Major opportunity to impact
- Land Management
- Freshwater Systems
- Engage diverse
stakeolders for mutual benefits
• Need to spend money efficiently
• Investments are complex
– What activities? Where?
– How much of each?
– How much do we need to spend to meet goals?
• Open enrollment or simple prioritization
The Problem for Water Funds
Can we do better by using a science-based
approach to investment design using
biophysical and social data?
Deep Dive Sites 30% to 600%
better estimated returns than
business as usual
Can We Do Better? YES!
8
• Use biophysical data with models to target where services are highest
• Scenario analyses of vulnerability or sensitivity to interventions
• Specific to context and available data
Model-based approaches
9
• Targeting current source or problem areas will not always give you best returns!
But…
• Identify places where benefits of activities are biggest (change models)
• An approach general enough to work everywhere in Latin America
•Erosion Control •Nitrogen Regulation •Phosphorus Regulation
•Flood Mitigation
25% Erosion Control
32% N Regulation
RIOS Structure
Land Cover Scenarios
Portfolio Translator
Estimate Returns
Models
DIFFERENCE
RIO
S M
OD
ULE
S Portfolio Builder
•Relative Benefit Models
•Social and Economic Data
•Cost Effectiveness Maximization
Investment Portfolio
Base land cover
Portfolio land cover
RIOS TOOL 2 Objectives: Erosion Control for Drinking Water Quality Erosion Control for Reservoir Maintenance Phosphorus Retention for Water Quality Nitrogen Retention for Water Quality Flood Mitigation
DISCUSSED Groundwater Recharge Bacteria Retention for Drinking Water Quality
Outputs - Estimation of Returns
CHANGE IN SEDIMENT EXPORT
+ 0.5%
- 11.0%
500 tons (+ 0.5%)
- 8,000 tons (- $11%)
NO
CA
LIB
RA
TIO
N
WIT
H C
ALI
BR
ATI
ON
CHANGE IN VALUE – AVOIDED TREATMENT COST
+ 0.1%
- 15%
$0.2 mil (+ 0.1%)
- $4.3 mil (- 15%)
Outputs - Estimation of Returns N
O C
ALI
BR
ATI
ON
W
ITH
CA
LIB
RA
TIO
N
Sediment Exp Value (change in treatment cost)
Bene-ficiaries
Sub-basin Δ % Δ Δ % Δ TTL
1 0.5 % 0.1 % 5,341
2 - 17 % - 14.5 % 10,700
3 - 5 % - 6.2 % 12,550
ALL - 9 % - 11 % 240,300
Sediment Exp Value (change in treatment cost)
Bene-ficiaries
Sub-basin Δ % Δ Δ % Δ TTL
1 495 0.5 % $0.2 mil 0.1 % 5,341
2 -7,998 - 17 % - $4.3 mil - 14.5 % 10,700
3 -2,123 - 5 % - $0.9 mil - 6.2 % 12,550
ALL -1,375 - 9 % - $13 mil - 11 % 240,300
BASE
Pasture
Forest
Agriculture crops
Sc1 Portfolio + Protection
Sc2 Portfolio, No Protection
Sediment export = 100
Sediment export = 90 Sediment export = 95
Base – Sc1 = 10 Sc2 – Sc1 = 5 Total benefit = 15
CALCULATE RETURNS:
Hands-on With RIOS
How much $$ do you need? • Find how much you need to invest to get a
10 % reduction in total sediment export
• Produce graph of sediment export reduction by budget level
• Fastest team wins!
Default Factor Weights
• Target = 10 % reduction in sediment export
• Use GW beneficiaries (to constrain to ws boundary)