Targeting home fire safety checks Andy Mobbs - London Fire Brigade Risk Information Team February 2008.

Targeting home fire safety checks

Andy Mobbs - London Fire Brigade Risk Information TeamFebruary 2008

Reducing accidental fires in the home Modernisation of the fire service put

clear focus on prevention as well as response

Strategy for HFSVs started in 2003 Yearly target of approx 65,000 visits

With 3.5 million homes in London and around 6,500 fires in the home, visits must be effectively targeted to reduce risks• 3.25 percent of homes visited to date

Problems with targeting – where

Incident locations vary year-to-year• Accidental dwelling fires for Southwark 2005, 2006 &

2007

Problems with targeting – who

CLG ‘at risk groups’ defined from those fires that cause greatest harm

Broad descriptions cannot easily be translated into ‘real people’ • Older people• Children and young people• Ethnic minorities or faith groups• People with learning or physical

disabilities• People with alcohol or drug use

problems• People with mental illness• People in poor housing

Solution

Develop a risk model that combines our incident data with what we know about people, their society and their environment in such a way that we can predict the ‘real’ level of risk (incident likelihood)

Use consumer profiling to describe (and locate) ‘at risk groups’ by lifestyle

….which we call iRAT

What is iRAT?

An Incident Risk Analysis Toolkit

A statistical approach to analysing the occurrence of incidents

A way of combining data about incidents, people, society and geography

Prioritising households by lifestyles

A systematic way to deliver prevention activities in the areas of highest likelihood to those who experience incidents most often

Prioritising households using Mosaic

What is Mosaic?

A commercially available consumer profiling database

“Its comprehensive analysis of citizens at postcode and household level provides deep insight into the socio-demographics, lifestyles, culture and behaviour of UK citizens”

Detailed lifestyle profiles together with preferences for marketing communications

“Additionally, it provides a ‘common currency’ that enables the same citizen to be viewed in the same way by all public bodies, supporting joined-up government and partnership working”

Comparing Mosaic groups with accidental fires in the home

Previous targeting has focused on what we have learnt about fire death and injury

But this targets the consequence of fire and not necessarily those who are most at risk of a fire occurring

Less is known about those who experience fire but are not harmed by it

Approximation using consumer profiling

More complete profile of people that does not focus on one single factor

• Age or ethnicity or deprivation

Analysing accidental dwelling fires using Mosaic

ADFs compared with Mosaic Groups        

Mosaic Group No. of HH No. of AFDs Prop. of HH Prop. of ADFs ADFs per HH Index

A 458,291 566 13.81% 8.79% 0.001235 64

B 87,662 91 2.64% 1.41% 0.001038 54

C 505,585 592 15.23% 9.20% 0.001171 60

D 499,131 922 15.04% 14.32% 0.001847 95

E 947,926 1676 28.56% 26.04% 0.001768 91

F 470,754 1147 14.18% 17.82% 0.002437 126

G 24,012 50 0.72% 0.78% 0.002082 107

H 163,611 235 4.93% 3.65% 0.001436 74

I 56,389 147 1.70% 2.28% 0.002607 134

J 103,814 180 3.13% 2.80% 0.001734 89

K 1,533 1 0.05% 0.02% 0.000652 34

n/a   830   12.89%    

Totals 3,318,708 6437 100.00% 100.00% 0.001940 100

Analysing accidental dwelling fires using Mosaic

Over representation

Under representation

Comparing Mosaic groupsGroup E - “Young, single and mostly well-educated, these people are cosmopolitan in tastes and liberal in attitudes”

Key Features - Young singles, few children; Full time students/Professionals; Open-minded

Receptive to - Internet; Leaflets, Posters; Telephone advice lines; Magazines, Broadsheets

Group F - “People who are struggling to achieve rewards and are mostly reliant on the council for accommodation and benefits”

Key Features - Families, many young children; Low incomes; Heavy watchers of TV

Receptive to - TV; Telemarketing; Leaflets, Posters; Red top newspapers

Taking the work forward

Accessibility of mapped data• Priority postcode data

Mistrust of statistics Confusion between ‘at risk’,

‘prevalence vs. proportions’ and ‘risk reduction’

Need to refine Mosaic by using type analysis

Applying Mosaic to other incident types

Questions?

Contact details

London Fire Brigade Risk Information TeamAndy Mobbs020 8555 1200 [email protected] Eady 020 8555 1200 [email protected] Smit 020 8555 1200 [email protected]