Tap into the sales data collected every day by your POS to drive sales… · 2020-03-05 · forecasts may be dead on, but the process itself is valuable. Diving into your sales data

Effective plans are based on real numbers. So the better you understand your sales history, the better equipped you will be to plan for efficient prep, appropriate staffing, and profitable promotions.

Intelligent ForecastingYour forecast shows expected sales for the coming week, based on past performance. A realistic forecast is the key to effective prep and labor plans. It allows you to address

efficiency at the planning stage—where it can have the greatest impact on profit.

Forecasting does not have to be a tedious, manual process. A new-generation of POS systems provide intuitive tools to create realistic forecasts automatically. Based on your historical sales curve, a good system can accurately predict this week’s sales volumes.

The payback depends on how you use that information.

Tap into the sales data collected every day by your POS to drive sales, improve operations, and increase profits.

Forecast for ProfitRESTAURANT OPERATIONS SERIES

I N T E L L I G E N T F O R E C A S T I N G

TAKE THE LONG VIEW

WEIGH IN WITH YOUR EXPERIENCE

Determine labor requirements from historical data based on day part (lunch and dinner) and order type (pick-up and delivery).

Recognize peak times and plan for success by scheduling breaks and shift changes during non-peak hours.

Document unusual events that have affected operations such as street closures or city events.

Financial results are readily available to compare sales variances from the same period as the previous year. Gain insight and take action!

Seven-week historical sales figures provide a baseline to interpret normal annual cycles and identify new trends.

Follow daily and weekly sales to monitor and respond to unexpected changes in volume.

Sales results show trends so you can plan your response, such as a promotion to generate business during slower periods. Edit sales projections and labor

targets when special events are scheduled such as game day.

To see how a forecast can help you plan with more insight, look at this SpeedLine POS sales forecast for a typical week. In this example, the forecast shows dollar amounts, but we could also choose to view the forecast by number of orders.

SPOT TRENDS

KEEP AN EYE ON RECENT SALES

ADD NOTES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

MONITOR FINANCIAL HEALTH ON THE FLY

FORECAST BY DAY PART AND ORDER TYPE SPOT PEAK TIMES AT A GLANCE

Projected sales for this week, based on historical sales for this year and last.

Forecast realistic projections based on sales history. Keep targets in view as you plan.

PLAN TO TARGETLET THE SOFTWARE CRUNCH THE NUMBERS

TAKE THE LONG VIEW

WEIGH IN WITH YOUR EXPERIENCE

Our sales forecast breaks out sales history and projections for lunch and dinner separately, then divides it further by delivery and pickup sales. Since the forecast feeds into our labor plan, we can easily schedule the right staff to handle the workload. If delivery orders spike every Thursday during lunch, we know we need to schedule more drivers.

SPOT TRENDS

KEEP AN EYE ON RECENT SALES

The POS system projects sales for the week, based on sales history. Because it’s based on data collected by the POS over a period of time, this is a realistic projection that gives us a solid basis for forecasting our week’s sales.

The forecast graphs projected sales hour by hour for every day in the coming week. Viewing sales projections in this format can help us spot peak times so we can plan breaks and shift changes when the restaurant is quieter.

PLAN TO TARGET

ADD NOTES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

MONITOR FINANCIAL HEALTH ON THE FLY

FORECAST BY DAY PART AND ORDER TYPE

SPOT PEAK TIMES AT A GLANCE

The forecast allows us to compare sales projections with daily sales figures for a seven-week period at the same time last year. This historical data provides a baseline to help us interpret current projections: are our sales following a normal yearly cycle or are there new trends we need to take into account?

The forecast shows that for a month or more, our sales have been slow on Tuesdays. To help boost sales on that day, we may decide to launch promotions, such as:

• A happy hour special• A special discount• Tuesday-only loyalty rewards• An upselling contest

LET THE SOFTWARE CRUNCH THE NUMBERS

In our store, we need to keep corporate sales targets in sight, so we’ve set up a row to display targets pushed down from head office. But this row is also customizable to keep track of any target we choose: for example, we may want to set our own target to display the sales levels we need to buy a new oven.

In the editable Store Projection field, we can adjust the POS projections based on our experience or knowledge of upcoming events. Initially, this value is identical to the system projection, unless we change it to account for external factors. Next Monday, we know that a big sporting event on TV will likely boost our delivery sales, so we increase our projection by 20% to $2,490. The numbers we enter in these editable fields are important, because they feed into our labor and prep plans. Based on this forecast, the system’s built-in scheduler will recommend labor targets, building in overhead and payroll taxes, to help us schedule efficiently and within budget. In our store, we want to keep our labor costs below 25% of sales. When we build the schedule, the system will alert us if Monday’s total labor cost goes above $622.50, which is 25% of our projected $2,490 in sales.

Throughout the day, we can enter notes to report any unusual events that affected the day’s sales. These notes explain sales figures that are out of line with what we would expect for the day: this information can help us prepare better in the future. Last year’s Spring Fair drove lots of sales traffic to our restaurant. But this year, the city blocked the street, and no parking was available for our dine-in and carryout customers. Next year, these notes in our forecast will remind us to lobby City Hall to keep the street opened. Or instead, to set up a sidewalk booth to sell pizza by the slice to pedestrians.

The sales forecast compares percentage variances in weekly sales between the same period this year and last. At a glance, our sales for the month are down significantly from last year. To offset the negative financial impact, we may look at ways to reduce food cost and utility bills. Or we may step up email marketing to drive sales. We may also hold off on major purchases until percentages have stabilized. While we may have a good feel for when sales are up or down overall, the forecast gives us a detailed comparison by week—and even by day part and order type—that may give us more insight into the reasons for a gain or drop in sales.We can act on this knowledge now: we don’t have to wait for a monthly or annual Profit & Loss statement to monitor volume shifts and take corrective action.

Daily sales figures for the past four weeks help us confirm that sales are on target. Or it can help us identify and respond to sudden changes in sales volume.

INTELLIGENT FORECASTING: in detail

ADDITIONAL RESOURCESFIND OUT MORE

An accurate sales forecast is critical to controlling costs proactively in any restaurant.As you begin working with this power tool, not all your forecasts may be dead on, but the process itself is valuable. Diving into your sales data and uncovering patterns will give you a deeper understanding of your business.

In seasonal markets, accurate forecasting is particularly critical. Chris Jordan, owner of Luigi’s Pizza Kitchen, says tracking sales in his restaurants’ markets is vital. Branson, Mo., a small town with only 7,000 residents but 8 million visitors each year, is home to two of his restaurants.

Jordan and his restaurant managers use their SpeedLine POS systems to improve operational efficiency year-round: tracking spikes in sales with each influx of vacationers, and the drastic drops that follow when they head home at the end of the season. In the spring, they chart sales to correlate when major attractions reopen for the season, comparing the same week of the previous year to forecast sales and schedule employees.

REPORTING AND ANALYSIS: DATA-BASED DECISIONS

The leading provider of intelligent solutions for pizza point of sale, SpeedLine provides POS and enterprise management solutions for pizza and delivery, quick service, and multi-concept restaurant chains. For more information, or to arrange a free demonstration, call toll-free 888-400-9185 or email [email protected].

Locking Down Security

Labor Savings: It’s About Time

Orders Upsized

“Without using the previous sales information, we would be flying blind and making decisions in a reactive state rather than proactive,” Jordan said.

Managers are trained to print the hourly sales report each morning and post it for the staff. That way, staff members know what the sales were for last week’s lunch, when the dinner rush hit and what time they should start pre-closing.

“The numbers don’t always run consistent,” Jordan said, “but it gives them some sense of what to expect.”

Keeping track of the sales has an additional benefit on the staff’s frame of mind. “It boosts morale when everyone knows that we are busier today than the same day last week or last year,” Jordan said.

Using POS data takes the “gut feeling” out of decision-making, Jordan added, instead turning it into a statistical analysis. “It makes me feel good knowing that I am making a sound decision based on data and not a feeling,” he said.

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