April 30 th 2009 H1N1 (Swine Flu) Pandemic and the Imminent Expiration of Millions of Courses of Tamiflu The Chugai 2008 annual report to shareholders and investors included the following information specific to the sales of Tamiflu: FY 2008 Results Record-High Sales Excluding Tamiflu Foundation for Growth Established In FY2008, Chugai reported a decline in both revenues and operating income, with revenues down 5.2% to ¥326.9 billion, and operating income down 22.6% to ¥51.6 billion. The steady expansion of our new product lineup, however, made FY2008 a year in which we solidified our base for the next stage of growth. The biggest factor for the decline in revenues was the fall in sales of the anti-influenza agent Tamiflu (down ¥30.3 billion, a decrease of 78.3%). FY 2009 Outlook Increased Sales and Income Expected in FY 2009 Due to Higher Sales of Growth Drivers In FY2009, we expect revenues of ¥400 billion, up 22.4% year-on-year, driven by further growth of our major products. We project a 7.6% increase in product sales excluding Tamiflu to ¥337.3 billion. For the year, we forecast sales of Tamiflu to reach ¥53.0 billion, up 531.0%, due to expected resumption of government stockpiling in FY2009 and the ongoing recovery of the prescription rate for seasonal influenza. Link: http://www.chugai-pharm.co.jp/pdf/annual_report/2009/eAR2009_12_04.pdf These excerpts show that Chugai’s 2008 revenue was severely impacted by a decline in the sale of the anti-viral, Tamiflu. But all is not lost as they expect a 531% increase in sales due to the expected resumption of government stockpiling in FY2009. Does that mean the expected resumption of government stockpiling because they are expecting a
An examination of some of the facts surrounding the federal stockpile of Tamiflu to determine how many are likely to expire in the very near future, if not already, and what are the implications with the current H1N1 pandemic.
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April 30th 2009
H1N1 (Swine Flu) Pandemic and the Imminent Expiration of Millions of Courses of Tamiflu
The Chugai 2008 annual report to shareholders and investors included the
following information specific to the sales of Tamiflu:
FY 2008 Results Record-High Sales Excluding Tamiflu Foundation for Growth Established In FY2008, Chugai reported a decline in both revenues and operating income, with revenues down 5.2% to ¥326.9 billion, and operating income down 22.6% to ¥51.6 billion. The steady expansion of our new product lineup, however, made FY2008 a year in which we solidified our base for the next stage of growth. The biggest factor for the decline in revenues was the fall in sales of the anti-influenza agent Tamiflu (down ¥30.3 billion, a decrease of 78.3%). FY 2009 Outlook Increased Sales and Income Expected in FY 2009 Due to Higher Sales of Growth Drivers In FY2009, we expect revenues of ¥400 billion, up 22.4% year-on-year, driven by further growth of our major products. We project a 7.6% increase in product sales excluding Tamiflu to ¥337.3 billion. For the year, we forecast sales of Tamiflu to reach ¥53.0 billion, up 531.0%, due to expected resumption of government stockpiling in FY2009 and the ongoing recovery of the prescription rate for seasonal influenza. Link: http://www.chugai-pharm.co.jp/pdf/annual_report/2009/eAR2009_12_04.pdf
These excerpts show that Chugai’s 2008 revenue was severely impacted
by a decline in the sale of the anti-viral, Tamiflu. But all is not lost as
they expect a 531% increase in sales due to the expected resumption of
government stockpiling in FY2009. Does that mean the expected
resumption of government stockpiling because they are expecting a
The FDA have now released information admitting that some of the Tamiflu
stockpiles are expiring.
“Stockpiled Antivirals at or Nearing Expiration
During this public health emergency, the FDA has issued Emergency Use Authorizations that expand access to medical products that may become necessary.
Two antiviral treatments covered by Emergency Use Authorizations, Tamiflu (oseltamavir) and Relenza (zanamivir), may already be included in many emergency stockpiles.
All companies, U.S. states and localities, and other organizations with Tamiflu and Relenza that are approaching, or past, the labeled expiration date, are urged to consider keeping it while the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services evaluates options, including those that may allow for their use if needed during this 2009 H1N1 flu virus outbreak.
These organizations are also urged to contact the FDA’s Emergency Operations Center with information on how much Tamiflu and Relenza in their stockpiles is at or approaching expiration.”