Taller Repaso

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 500

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Demanda

Semanas Demandad Pronostico Error Error Cuadratico

1 922 1273 1174 885 1146 997 1228 969 8410 6411 11712 12713 92 102.67 -10.67 10.67 113.7814 80 112.00 -32.00 32.00 1024.0015 105 99.67 5.33 5.33 28.4416 121 92.33 28.67 28.67 821.7817 99 102.00 -3.00 3.00 9.0018 120 108.33 11.67 11.67 136.1119 50 113.33 -63.33 63.33 4011.1120 190 89.67 100.33 100.33 10066.7821 117 120.00 -3.00 3.00 9.0022 99 119.00 -20.00 20.00 400.0023 128 135.33 -7.33 7.33 53.7824 119 114.67 4.33 4.33 18.7825 113 115.33 -2.33 2.33 5.4426 72 120.00 -48.00 48.00 2304.0027 85 101.33 -16.33 16.33 266.7828 105 90.00 15.00 15.00 225.0029 109 87.33 21.67 21.67 469.4430 96 99.67 -3.67 3.67 13.4431 98 103.33 -5.33 5.33 28.4432 109 101.00 8.00 8.00 64.0033 85 101.00 -16.00 16.00 256.0034 103 97.33 5.67 5.67 32.1135 124 99.00 25.00 25.00 625.0036 114 104.00 10.00 10.00 100.0037 97 113.67 -16.67 16.67 277.7838 89 111.67 -22.67 22.67 513.7839 144 100.00 44.00 44.00 1936.0040 94 110.00 -16.00 16.00 256.0041 105 109.00 -4.00 4.00 16.0042 113 114.33 -1.33 1.33 1.7843 96 104.00 -8.00 8.00 64.0044 125 104.67 20.33 20.33 413.4445 118 111.33 6.67 6.67 44.4446 97 113.00 -16.00 16.00 256.00

Error Adsoluto

47 135 113.33 21.67 21.67 469.4448 147 116.67 30.33 30.33 920.1149 110 126.33 -16.33 16.33 266.7850 103 130.67 -27.67 27.67 765.44

18.90 717.98MAD ECM

22.39

107.06

CV 20.92%

DESV. ESTANDAR DEMANDA

DEMANDA PROMEDIO

APE APE`

11.59% 10.39%40.00% 28.57%5.08% 5.35%23.69% 31.05%3.03% 2.94%9.72% 10.77%

126.67% 55.88%52.81% 111.90%2.56% 2.50%20.20% 16.81%5.73% 5.42%3.64% 3.78%2.06% 2.02%66.67% 40.00%19.22% 16.12%14.29% 16.67%19.88% 24.81%3.82% 3.68%5.44% 5.16%7.34% 7.92%18.82% 15.84%5.50% 5.82%20.16% 25.25%8.77% 9.62%17.18% 14.66%25.47% 20.30%30.56% 44.00%17.02% 14.55%3.81% 3.67%1.18% 1.17%8.33% 7.69%16.27% 19.43%5.65% 5.99%16.49% 14.16%

16.05% 19.12%20.63% 26.00%14.85% 12.93%26.86% 21.17%18.87% 17.98%MAPE MAPE`

Semanas Demandad Pronostico Error APE APE`

1 922 1273 1174 885 1146 997 1228 969 8410 6411 11712 12713 92 101.67 -9.67 9.67 93.44 10.51% 9.51%14 80 96.67 -16.67 16.67 277.78 20.83% 17.24%15 105 94.00 11.00 11.00 121.00 10.48% 11.70%16 121 97.50 23.50 23.50 552.25 19.42% 24.10%17 99 107.00 -8.00 8.00 64.00 8.08% 7.48%18 120 104.00 16.00 16.00 256.00 13.33% 15.38%19 50 102.83 -52.83 52.83 2791.36 105.67% 51.38%20 190 95.83 94.17 94.17 8867.36 49.56% 98.26%21 117 114.17 2.83 2.83 8.03 2.42% 2.48%22 99 116.17 -17.17 17.17 294.69 17.34% 14.78%23 128 112.50 15.50 15.50 240.25 12.11% 13.78%24 119 117.33 1.67 1.67 2.78 1.40% 1.42%25 113 117.17 -4.17 4.17 17.36 3.69% 3.56%26 72 127.67 -55.67 55.67 3098.78 77.31% 43.60%27 85 108.00 -23.00 23.00 529.00 27.06% 21.30%28 105 102.67 2.33 2.33 5.44 2.22% 2.27%29 109 103.67 5.33 5.33 28.44 4.89% 5.14%30 96 100.50 -4.50 4.50 20.25 4.69% 4.48%31 98 96.67 1.33 1.33 1.78 1.36% 1.38%32 109 94.17 14.83 14.83 220.03 13.61% 15.75%33 85 100.33 -15.33 15.33 235.11 18.04% 15.28%34 103 100.33 2.67 2.67 7.11 2.59% 2.66%35 124 100.00 24.00 24.00 576.00 19.35% 24.00%36 114 102.50 11.50 11.50 132.25 10.09% 11.22%37 97 105.50 -8.50 8.50 72.25 8.76% 8.06%38 89 105.33 -16.33 16.33 266.78 18.35% 15.51%39 144 102.00 42.00 42.00 1764.00 29.17% 41.18%40 94 111.83 -17.83 17.83 318.03 18.97% 15.95%41 105 110.33 -5.33 5.33 28.44 5.08% 4.83%42 113 107.17 5.83 5.83 34.03 5.16% 5.44%43 96 107.00 -11.00 11.00 121.00 11.46% 10.28%44 125 106.83 18.17 18.17 330.03 14.53% 17.00%45 118 112.83 5.17 5.17 26.69 4.38% 4.58%46 97 108.50 -11.50 11.50 132.25 11.86% 10.60%

Error Adsoluto

Error Cuadratico

47 135 109.00 26.00 26.00 676.00 19.26% 23.85%48 147 114.00 33.00 33.00 1089.00 22.45% 28.95%49 110 119.67 -9.67 9.67 93.44 8.79% 8.08%50 103 122.00 -19.00 19.00 361.00 18.45% 15.57%

17.45 625.09 17.18% 16.53%MAD ECM MAPE MAPE`

22.39

107.06

CV 20.92%

DESV. ESTANDAR DEMANDA

DEMANDA PROMEDIO

Semanas Demandad Pronostico Error APE APE`

1 922 1273 1174 885 1146 997 1228 969 8410 6411 11712 12713 92 101.22 -9.22 9.22 85.05 10.02% 9.11%14 80 101.67 -21.67 21.67 469.44 27.08% 21.31%15 105 97.89 7.11 7.11 50.57 6.77% 7.26%16 121 98.56 22.44 22.44 503.75 18.55% 22.77%17 99 98.44 0.56 0.56 0.31 0.56% 0.56%18 120 98.78 21.22 21.22 450.38 17.69% 21.48%19 50 102.78 -52.78 52.78 2785.49 105.56% 51.35%20 190 101.22 88.78 88.78 7881.49 46.73% 87.71%21 117 109.33 7.67 7.67 58.78 6.55% 7.01%22 99 108.22 -9.22 9.22 85.05 9.32% 8.52%23 128 109.00 19.00 19.00 361.00 14.84% 17.43%24 119 114.33 4.67 4.67 21.78 3.92% 4.08%25 113 115.89 -2.89 2.89 8.35 2.56% 2.49%26 72 115.00 -43.00 43.00 1849.00 59.72% 37.39%27 85 112.00 -27.00 27.00 729.00 31.76% 24.11%28 105 108.11 -3.11 3.11 9.68 2.96% 2.88%29 109 114.22 -5.22 5.22 27.27 4.79% 4.57%30 96 105.22 -9.22 9.22 85.05 9.61% 8.76%31 98 102.89 -4.89 4.89 23.90 4.99% 4.75%32 109 102.78 6.22 6.22 38.72 5.71% 6.05%33 85 100.67 -15.67 15.67 245.44 18.43% 15.56%34 103 96.89 6.11 6.11 37.35 5.93% 6.31%35 124 95.78 28.22 28.22 796.49 22.76% 29.47%36 114 101.56 12.44 12.44 154.86 10.92% 12.25%37 97 104.78 -7.78 7.78 60.49 8.02% 7.42%38 89 103.89 -14.89 14.89 221.68 16.73% 14.33%39 144 101.67 42.33 42.33 1792.11 29.40% 41.64%40 94 107.00 -13.00 13.00 169.00 13.83% 12.15%41 105 106.56 -1.56 1.56 2.42 1.48% 1.46%42 113 106.11 6.89 6.89 47.46 6.10% 6.49%43 96 109.22 -13.22 13.22 174.83 13.77% 12.11%44 125 108.44 16.56 16.56 274.09 13.24% 15.27%45 118 108.56 9.44 9.44 89.20 8.00% 8.70%46 97 109.00 -12.00 12.00 144.00 12.37% 11.01%

Error Adsoluto

Error Cuadratico

47 135 109.00 26.00 26.00 676.00 19.26% 23.85%48 147 114.11 32.89 32.89 1081.68 22.37% 28.82%49 110 114.44 -4.44 4.44 19.75 4.04% 3.88%50 103 116.22 -13.22 13.22 174.83 12.84% 11.38%

16.91 570.68 16.56% 16.10%MAD ECM MAPE MAPE`

Semanas Demandad Pronostico Error APE APE`

1 922 1273 1174 885 1146 997 1228 969 8410 6411 11712 12713 92 103.92 -11.92 11.92 142.01 12.95% 11.47%14 80 103.92 -23.92 23.92 572.01 29.90% 23.02%15 105 100.00 5.00 5.00 25.00 4.76% 5.00%16 121 99.00 22.00 22.00 484.00 18.18% 22.22%17 99 101.75 -2.75 2.75 7.56 2.78% 2.70%18 120 100.50 19.50 19.50 380.25 16.25% 19.40%19 50 102.25 -52.25 52.25 2730.06 104.50% 51.10%20 190 96.25 93.75 93.75 8789.06 49.34% 97.40%21 117 104.08 12.92 12.92 166.84 11.04% 12.41%22 99 106.83 -7.83 7.83 61.36 7.91% 7.33%23 128 109.75 18.25 18.25 333.06 14.26% 16.63%24 119 110.67 8.33 8.33 69.44 7.00% 7.53%25 113 110.00 3.00 3.00 9.00 2.65% 2.73%26 72 111.75 -39.75 39.75 1580.06 55.21% 35.57%27 85 111.08 -26.08 26.08 680.34 30.69% 23.48%28 105 109.42 -4.42 4.42 19.51 4.21% 4.04%29 109 108.08 0.92 0.92 0.84 0.84% 0.85%30 96 108.92 -12.92 12.92 166.84 13.45% 11.86%31 98 106.92 -8.92 8.92 79.51 9.10% 8.34%32 109 110.92 -1.92 1.92 3.67 1.76% 1.73%33 85 104.17 -19.17 19.17 367.36 22.55% 18.40%34 103 101.50 1.50 1.50 2.25 1.46% 1.48%35 124 101.83 22.17 22.17 491.36 17.88% 21.77%36 114 101.50 12.50 12.50 156.25 10.96% 12.32%37 97 101.08 -4.08 4.08 16.67 4.21% 4.04%38 89 99.75 -10.75 10.75 115.56 12.08% 10.78%39 144 101.17 42.83 42.83 1834.69 29.75% 42.34%40 94 106.08 -12.08 12.08 146.01 12.85% 11.39%41 105 105.17 -0.17 0.17 0.03 0.16% 0.16%42 113 104.83 8.17 8.17 66.69 7.23% 7.79%43 96 106.25 -10.25 10.25 105.06 10.68% 9.65%44 125 106.08 18.92 18.92 357.84 15.13% 17.83%45 118 107.42 10.58 10.58 112.01 8.97% 9.85%46 97 110.17 -13.17 13.17 173.36 13.57% 11.95%

Error Adsoluto

Error Cuadratico

47 135 109.67 25.33 25.33 641.78 18.77% 23.10%48 147 110.58 36.42 36.42 1326.17 24.77% 32.93%49 110 113.33 -3.33 3.33 11.11 3.03% 2.94%50 103 114.42 -11.42 11.42 130.34 11.08% 9.98%

16.82 588.29 16.37% 16.14%MAD ECM MAPE MAPE`

N MAD ECM MAPE MAPE`3 18.90 717.98 18.87% 17.98%6 17.45 625.09 17.18% 16.53%9 16.91 570.68 16.56% 16.10%

12 16.82 588.29 16.37% 16.14%

Semanas Demandad Pronostico Error APE APE`

1 922 1273 1174 885 1146 997 1228 969 8410 6411 11712 12713 92 103.92 -11.92 11.92 142.01 12.95% 11.47%14 80 103.80 -23.80 23.80 566.32 29.75% 22.93%15 105 103.56 1.44 1.44 2.07 1.37% 1.39%16 121 103.57 17.43 17.43 303.67 14.40% 16.82%17 99 103.75 -4.75 4.75 22.55 4.80% 4.58%18 120 103.70 16.30 16.30 265.67 13.58% 15.72%19 50 103.86 -53.86 53.86 2901.30 107.73% 51.86%20 190 103.33 86.67 86.67 7512.54 45.62% 83.89%21 117 104.19 12.81 12.81 164.05 10.95% 12.29%22 99 104.32 -5.32 5.32 28.30 5.37% 5.10%23 128 104.27 23.73 23.73 563.27 18.54% 22.76%24 119 104.50 14.50 14.50 210.13 12.18% 13.87%25 113 104.65 8.35 8.35 69.74 7.39% 7.98%26 72 104.73 -32.73 32.73 1071.42 45.46% 31.25%27 85 104.41 -19.41 19.41 376.56 22.83% 18.59%28 105 104.21 0.79 0.79 0.62 0.75% 0.76%29 109 104.22 4.78 4.78 22.86 4.39% 4.59%30 96 104.27 -8.27 8.27 68.34 8.61% 7.93%31 98 104.18 -6.18 6.18 38.24 6.31% 5.94%32 109 104.12 4.88 4.88 23.79 4.47% 4.68%33 85 104.17 -19.17 19.17 367.53 22.55% 18.40%34 103 103.98 -0.98 0.98 0.96 0.95% 0.94%35 124 103.97 20.03 20.03 401.22 16.15% 19.27%36 114 104.17 9.83 9.83 96.63 8.62% 9.44%37 97 104.27 -7.27 7.27 52.83 7.49% 6.97%38 89 104.20 -15.20 15.20 230.90 17.07% 14.58%39 144 104.04 39.96 39.96 1596.52 27.75% 38.40%40 94 104.44 -10.44 10.44 109.06 11.11% 10.00%41 105 104.34 0.66 0.66 0.44 0.63% 0.63%42 113 104.35 8.65 8.65 74.90 7.66% 8.29%43 96 104.43 -8.43 8.43 71.10 8.78% 8.07%44 125 104.35 20.65 20.65 426.52 16.52% 19.79%45 118 104.55 13.45 13.45 180.79 11.39% 12.86%46 97 104.69 -7.69 7.69 59.11 7.93% 7.34%

Error Adsoluto

Error Cuadratico

47 135 104.61 30.39 30.39 923.45 22.51% 29.05%48 147 104.92 42.08 42.08 1771.10 28.63% 40.11%49 110 105.34 4.66 4.66 21.75 4.24% 4.43%50 103 105.38 -2.38 2.38 5.68 2.31% 2.26%51 105.36 16.31 545.89 15.78% 15.66%

MAD ECM MAPE MAPE`

Alpha 0.01