Taliban

TALIBA AND ITS EFFECTS ON INDIA AND PAKISTAN

TALIBAN AND ITS EFFECTS ON INDIA

"When Allah had made the rest of the world, He saw there was a "When Allah had made the rest of the world, He saw there was a lot of rubbish left over, bits and pieces and things that did not fit lot of rubbish left over, bits and pieces and things that did not fit anywhere else. He collected them all together and threw them anywhere else. He collected them all together and threw them down on the earth. That was Afghanistan.”down on the earth. That was Afghanistan.”

- An old Afghan Saying

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

REGION KNOWN AS KHORASAN.REGION KNOWN AS KHORASAN.

MULTI-ETHNIC COMPOSITION.MULTI-ETHNIC COMPOSITION.

31 PROVINCES.31 PROVINCES.

ETHNIC GROUP ETHNIC GROUP PASHTUNS.PASHTUNS.

SUNNI ISLAM DOMINANT FAITH.SUNNI ISLAM DOMINANT FAITH.

SHIA MINORITIES.SHIA MINORITIES.

> HAZARAS> HAZARAS

> ISMAILIES> ISMAILIES

AIMAIM

TO AQUAINT YOU WITH TALIBAN AND TO AQUAINT YOU WITH TALIBAN AND ITS EFFECT ON INDIA ITS EFFECT ON INDIA

PREVIEWPREVIEW

PART I BRIEF HISTORYPART I BRIEF HISTORYPART II MODUS OPERANDIPART II MODUS OPERANDIPART III PAK FACTORPART III PAK FACTORPART IV EFFECT ON INDIAPART IV EFFECT ON INDIA

BRIEF HISTORYBRIEF HISTORY

BRIEF HISTORYBRIEF HISTORY

KUSHAN EMPIRE- SECOND CENTURY A.D.KUSHAN EMPIRE- SECOND CENTURY A.D.

HUEN TSANG’S ACCOUNT, HINDU KINGDOM HUEN TSANG’S ACCOUNT, HINDU KINGDOM IN KABUL, GHAZNI AND GARDEZ.IN KABUL, GHAZNI AND GARDEZ.

ADVENT OF ISLAM:ADVENT OF ISLAM:

> ARAB ARMIES CAME FROM EAST.> ARAB ARMIES CAME FROM EAST.

> SULTAN MOHD OF GHAZNI (998-1030).> SULTAN MOHD OF GHAZNI (998-1030).

> 1504- BABUR CAPTURED KABUL.> 1504- BABUR CAPTURED KABUL.

BRIEF HISTORYBRIEF HISTORYEMERGENCE OF NATIONEMERGENCE OF NATION::

> LONG TRIBAL DISPUTES.> LONG TRIBAL DISPUTES.

> > PASHTUN – GHILZAI, ABDALI.PASHTUN – GHILZAI, ABDALI.

> 1730 – AHMAD SHAH ABDALI, BECAME EMPEROR.> 1730 – AHMAD SHAH ABDALI, BECAME EMPEROR.

> > GREAT GAME BEGAN AFTER HIS DEATH.GREAT GAME BEGAN AFTER HIS DEATH.

> BRITISH AND SOVIET INVASION.> BRITISH AND SOVIET INVASION.

> > 1887 DEMARCATION OF BOUNDARIES.1887 DEMARCATION OF BOUNDARIES.

> 1960- POL GPS FORMED. PDPA, PARCHAM.> 1960- POL GPS FORMED. PDPA, PARCHAM.

> > 17 JULY 1973, MOHD DAOUD OVERTHREW 17 JULY 1973, MOHD DAOUD OVERTHREW MONARCHY.MONARCHY.

> DECL NEW REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN.> DECL NEW REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN.

ENERGY RESOURCES

BRIEF HISTORYBRIEF HISTORY

SOVIET INVASION:SOVIET INVASION:

> COLD WAR IMPACT ON SIT.> COLD WAR IMPACT ON SIT.

> > USA WANTED TO GIVE SOVIETS A TASTE OF USA WANTED TO GIVE SOVIETS A TASTE OF THEIR OWN MED, A LA VIETNAM.THEIR OWN MED, A LA VIETNAM.

> 1979 HAFIZULLAH AMIN KILLED THE PRESIDENT.> 1979 HAFIZULLAH AMIN KILLED THE PRESIDENT.

> > DEC 1979, SOVIETS ENTERED AFGHANISTAN.DEC 1979, SOVIETS ENTERED AFGHANISTAN.

> BARAK KARMAL INSTALLED PRESIDENT.> BARAK KARMAL INSTALLED PRESIDENT.

> > 1989- SOVIET TPS WITHDREW .1989- SOVIET TPS WITHDREW .

> NAJIBULLAH BECAME PRESIDENT.> NAJIBULLAH BECAME PRESIDENT.

> > ARRIVAL OF TALIBAN.ARRIVAL OF TALIBAN.

ANCIENT SILK ROUTE

RISE OF TALIBANRISE OF TALIBAN

ETHNIC GROUPS OF AFGHANISTAN

RISE OF TALIBANRISE OF TALIBAN

CIVIL WAR, AFTER SOVIET WITHDREW.CIVIL WAR, AFTER SOVIET WITHDREW.

NAJIBULLAH GOVT COLLAPSED-1992.NAJIBULLAH GOVT COLLAPSED-1992.

GULBUDDIN HEKMATAYR LAUNCHES OFFENSIVE ONGULBUDDIN HEKMATAYR LAUNCHES OFFENSIVE ONKABUL WITH US SUPPORT.KABUL WITH US SUPPORT.

LITTLE CONTROL OF GOVT OUTSIDE KABUL.LITTLE CONTROL OF GOVT OUTSIDE KABUL.

APPEARANCE OF TALIBAN.APPEARANCE OF TALIBAN.

PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE COMPETING FOREIGN MUSLIMPRESENCE OF MULTIPLE COMPETING FOREIGN MUSLIMSPONSORS.SPONSORS.

ARMS AND MONEY PUMPED BY US FOR JIHAD.ARMS AND MONEY PUMPED BY US FOR JIHAD.

LARGEST MADARSSA- DAROOL- UL-OM-DEOBAND,INDIA

MODUS OPERANDIMODUS OPERANDI

LEADERSHIPLEADERSHIP

MULLAH MOHD OMAR

AHMAD SHAH MASOODOsama bin ladin

MODUS OPERANDIMODUS OPERANDI

AS THE DIGNITY AND THE HONOUR OF A MUSLIM AS THE DIGNITY AND THE HONOUR OF A MUSLIM WOMAN IS ENSURED BY OBSERVING HEJAB AS WOMAN IS ENSURED BY OBSERVING HEJAB AS REQUESTED BY THE SHARI’A.REQUESTED BY THE SHARI’A.

ALL HONOURABLE SISTERS ARE STRONGLY ALL HONOURABLE SISTERS ARE STRONGLY ASKED TO COMPLETELY OBSERVE HEJAB AS ASKED TO COMPLETELY OBSERVE HEJAB AS RECOMMENDED BY RECOMMENDED BY SHARI’A.SHARI’A.

THIS CAN BE ACHIEVED ONLY IF OUR DEAR THIS CAN BE ACHIEVED ONLY IF OUR DEAR SISTERS WEAR BURQUAS, BECAUSE FULL HEJAB SISTERS WEAR BURQUAS, BECAUSE FULL HEJAB CANNOT BE ACHIEVED BY ONLY WEARING OF THE CANNOT BE ACHIEVED BY ONLY WEARING OF THE CHADAR. IN CASE OF VIOLATIONS NO ONE WILL CHADAR. IN CASE OF VIOLATIONS NO ONE WILL HAVE THE RIGHT TO COMPLAIN.HAVE THE RIGHT TO COMPLAIN.

PUBLIC EXECUTION

MODUS OPERANDIMODUS OPERANDI

SINCE THE PROPHET MUHAMMAD DID NOT SINCE THE PROPHET MUHAMMAD DID NOT TRIM HIS BEARD ALL; HIS LIFE.TRIM HIS BEARD ALL; HIS LIFE.

ALL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES ARE HEREBY ALL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES ARE HEREBY INFORMED THAT THEY SHOULD GROW THEIR INFORMED THAT THEY SHOULD GROW THEIR BEARDS WITHIN A MONTH AND A HALFBEARDS WITHIN A MONTH AND A HALF..

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE NOBLE HADITH OF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE NOBLE HADITH OF THE PROPHET, IN ORDER TO BE REARDED AS THE PROPHET, IN ORDER TO BE REARDED AS A TRUE MUSLIM.A TRUE MUSLIM.

PUBLIC EXECUTION

BLASTS IN US EMBASSY: KENYA

PAKISTAN FACTORPAKISTAN FACTOR

PAKISTAN FACTORPAKISTAN FACTOR

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.PAK OBSSESSION TO CONTROLPAK OBSSESSION TO CONTROL

AFGHANISTAN.AFGHANISTAN.DURAND LINE-AFGHAN PARLIAMENTDURAND LINE-AFGHAN PARLIAMENT

SCRAPS IT.SCRAPS IT.CREATION OF PASHTUNISTAN.CREATION OF PASHTUNISTAN.PERCIEVED STRATEGIC DEPTH.PERCIEVED STRATEGIC DEPTH.PAK SUPPORT TO MUJAHIDEEN.PAK SUPPORT TO MUJAHIDEEN.INDIA CENTRIC POLICIES.INDIA CENTRIC POLICIES.TRANSPORT CORRIDORS TO CENTRAL ASIA.TRANSPORT CORRIDORS TO CENTRAL ASIA.DOMESTIC COMPULSIONS.DOMESTIC COMPULSIONS.

AREAS CLAIMED TO BE PASHTUNISTAN-SHADED IN GREEN

WESTERN ROUTE FAVOURED

PAK FACTORPAK FACTOR

WAZRIRISTAN- FATA PROVINCE:WAZRIRISTAN- FATA PROVINCE:

> > ARMY MOVED LARGE CONC OF TPS.ARMY MOVED LARGE CONC OF TPS.

> TRIBAL CLAIM OF WAZIRISTAN.> TRIBAL CLAIM OF WAZIRISTAN.

> > DEATH OF NAWAB AHMAD BUGTI.DEATH OF NAWAB AHMAD BUGTI.

FATA REGION

BALUCHISTAN PROVINCE

ECONOMICECONOMIC

POLITICALPOLITICAL

NUCLEAR THREATNUCLEAR THREAT

PRESENT CRISISPRESENT CRISIS

EFFECTS ON PAK EFFECTS ON PAK

PRESENT CRISISPRESENT CRISIS

TALIBAN HAVE BECOME A THREAT FOR THE TALIBAN HAVE BECOME A THREAT FOR THE PAKISTAN ARMY LIKE THE MUKTI BAHINI IN PAKISTAN ARMY LIKE THE MUKTI BAHINI IN THEN EAST PAKISTAN IN 1971. THEN EAST PAKISTAN IN 1971.

RECENT ATTACKS IN LAHORE, RAWALPINDI AND RECENT ATTACKS IN LAHORE, RAWALPINDI AND PESHAWAR 170 CASUALTIES.PESHAWAR 170 CASUALTIES.

HUMILIATED THE SECURITY FORCES BY HUMILIATED THE SECURITY FORCES BY TARGETING KEY GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS.TARGETING KEY GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS.

28,000 GROUND TROOPS BACKED BY SPECIAL 28,000 GROUND TROOPS BACKED BY SPECIAL FORCES, AIRCRAFT AND ARTILLERY FIGHTING FORCES, AIRCRAFT AND ARTILLERY FIGHTING AGAINST TALIBAN.AGAINST TALIBAN.

TYPES OF THREAT:TYPES OF THREAT:

> > ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM.ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM.

> RADICAL CHECHEN GP.> RADICAL CHECHEN GP.

> > UNITED TAJIK OPPOSITION.UNITED TAJIK OPPOSITION.

> ISALMIC MOV OF UZBEKISTAN.> ISALMIC MOV OF UZBEKISTAN.

> > TALIBAN’S ROLE- CAPTURE OF HAIRATAN- TALIBAN’S ROLE- CAPTURE OF HAIRATAN- 1997.1997.

THREATS TO REGIONTHREATS TO REGION

TALIBAN TPS AT HAIRATAN BRIDGE.

EFFECTS ON INDIAEFFECTS ON INDIA

EFFECTS ON INDIAEFFECTS ON INDIA

THREAT FROM TERRORISM.THREAT FROM TERRORISM.

THREAT FROM OTHER QUARTERS.THREAT FROM OTHER QUARTERS.

> INCR FORCE PRESENCE.> INCR FORCE PRESENCE.

> ENERGY ISSUE.> ENERGY ISSUE.

MARITIME INTEREST.MARITIME INTEREST.

ATTACKS ON SRINAGAR ASSEMBLY

ATTACK ON INDIAN PARLIAMENT, DEC 13

LIKELY FUTURE SCENARIOLIKELY FUTURE SCENARIO

LIKELY FUTURE SCENARIOLIKELY FUTURE SCENARIO

THREAT FROM FUNDAMENTAL GP.THREAT FROM FUNDAMENTAL GP.IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION.IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION.ROLE OF REGIONAL POWERS.ROLE OF REGIONAL POWERS.IRAN.IRAN.RUSSIA.RUSSIA.REGIONAL POLITICS AND THE “NEW GREATREGIONAL POLITICS AND THE “NEW GREAT

GAME”.GAME”.FUTURE SCENARIO OF PAK ANDFUTURE SCENARIO OF PAK AND

IMPLICATIONS.IMPLICATIONS.CENTRAL ASIAN STATES.CENTRAL ASIAN STATES.

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

INTL COMMUNITY REALISED THE THREAT.INTL COMMUNITY REALISED THE THREAT.

SP FOR AFGHAN PEOPLE FROM ALL QUARTERS.SP FOR AFGHAN PEOPLE FROM ALL QUARTERS.

FEAR OF TALIBAN REVIVAL AFTER THEFEAR OF TALIBAN REVIVAL AFTER THEDEPARTURE OF US TPS.DEPARTURE OF US TPS.

PRESENT GOVT FIGHTING HARD TO CONTROLPRESENT GOVT FIGHTING HARD TO CONTROLTHE PROVINCES.THE PROVINCES.

NO BIASED POLICY TOWARDS TERRORISM.NO BIASED POLICY TOWARDS TERRORISM.

RECENT CHANGE OF GUARD IN PAK.RECENT CHANGE OF GUARD IN PAK.

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