SAP FORUM İSTANBUL 2014 Basit Düşün Fark Yarat TALEP ODAKLI TEDARİK ZİNCİRLERİ Konuşmacı Adı : Emir Barın Firma Adı : SAP Türkiye
Jun 23, 2015
SAP FORUM İSTANBUL 2014Basit Düşün Fark YaratTALEP ODAKLI TEDARİK ZİNCİRLERİKonuşmacı Adı : Emir BarınFirma Adı : SAP Türkiye
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Not understanding what your customer wants…… can have major consequences!
15% average out of stock rate
75% of new products FAIL
Average trade promotion ROI: -19%
2-4 weeks to respond to demand change!
Companies are increasingly driven to sense and respond to customer demand
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Manufacturer’s Business Challenges
Top business challenges§ High market volatility § Variation in demand is increasing.§ Lean supply chains and demanding customers
Are you experiencing?§ Poor forecast accuracy§ Product availability issues or Excess Inventory§ Low Supply Chain Planner Productivity§ Need for supply chain agility
An unprecedented amount of data (or signals) are available today to drive better decisions
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Scalable and centralized in-memory database for BIG DATA§ Capture large volumes of downstream demand data (e.g. Point of Sales) and Market research data in
a single instance
§ Automate the process to cleanse, validate, harmonize and enrich data with additional information during data upload
Central source of truth for advanced analytics§ Pre-packaged analytics to instantly analyze large volumes of demand and market data along multiple
dimensions
§ Extend and create purpose built analytics and mobility applications to meet specific needs of various roles in the organization
§ Combine social media data with analytics like e. g. sales
Richer demand data for enterprise business applications§ Provide cleansed and harmonized demand data to supply chain, sales & marketing business
applications
SAP Demand Signal Management powered by SAP HANAOverview
SAP’s Demand Signal Management solution provides a holistic view of how customer demand and sales are materializing by analyzing massive volumes of external downstream data (like POS data and Social Media), market research data as well as internal data like sales
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 5
SAP Demand Signal Management:
q Enterprise platform q Integrate & consolidate demand signals q Provide a single source of truth
RetailerPOS
Social Media Market Researchdata (e.g. Nielsen)
Distributor/ Wholesaler
SAP Business Suite
SAP Demand Signal Management
Linking additional external information (e.g., weather)
SHARE DATA WITH OTHER ENTPRISE
SOLUTIONS
DELIVERED ANALYTICS
SAP Demand Signal Management (DSiM) on HANAPositioning
CUSTOM ANALYTICS
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Point-Of-Sale Data
POS data takes too long to upload.
Its too late to take action
Before SAP DSiM
With SAP DSiMConsumer insight propagated & consumed immediately
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SAP Demand Signal Management powered by SAP HANASolution Architecture
SAP Demand Signal Management
Data Upload, Quality Validation, Harmonization& Enrichment
DataSources
DataConsumption
Data Collection & Transformation
Core SAP HANA Repository
Retailer 1…
Retailer n Market Research Institutes(Nielsen, IRI, GfK,..)
Distributor/ Wholesaler
SAP Business Suite
Integrationto the
SAP Business Suite(e.g. ERP, SCM, TPO)
Data AcquisitionData
Upload
Market Research Data (Syndicated data)
Point-of-SalesData
Internal Data…
AnalyticsMarket Share, Sales Performance,
Promotion Insight, New Product Launch, On-Shelf Availability, Out-of-Stock
MobileMarketing Director
Key Account Manager
Social Media
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 8
Data Acquisition Options
SAP Business Suiteor BW system
All third-partydata sources
SAP Information Interchangeor
SAP BusinessObjectsData Services
SAP extractors
SAP Demand Signal
Management
Harmonization
Market Research(SDX)
Data Validation
EnrichmentParsing and Mapping in the Extractor
Consumer Sentiments(NetBase)
BadI for integration of Social Media data
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SAP Demand Signal Management is relevant for your line of business
Sales
� Daily visibility into sales performance� Increase profitability,
revenue and market success� Avoid loss of sales
Marketing
� Avoid failure of new product launches � Defend your customer base� Increase promotion and price
effectiveness
Supply Chain
� Improve forecast accuracy � Avoid out-of-stock during
promotions� Reduce transit and warehousing
costs
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Benefits of SAP Demand Signal ManagementSense demand, spot trends, and respond faster
Sense Actual Demand Signals in Real Time
Quickly Spot Market Trends and Deviations
Respond Faster to Demand Fluctuations
Access massive amounts of up-to-date POS data along side syndicated data and social sentiment indicators
Drill down into massive amounts of granular demand and market data to develop market insights and understand consumer trends
Ensure integration with core business and supply chain processes and accelerate end-to-end downstream processes
SenseAnalyzeRespond
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Benefits� Predict market trends and improve responsiveness using up to date demand and market data� Develop deeper more comprehensive demand visibility with a more holistic market view � Eliminate errors and inaccuracies by relying on single source of truth
Sense actual demand signals in real time
Wholesale Level
Retail Level
Consumer Level
Distribution Network
YOU
Distribution Network
Consumer Level
YOU
Dem
and Signal M
anagement pow
ered by S
AP
HA
NA
Business Suite Syndicated Social Media Point of Sale
Consumer Data
SenseAnalyzeRespond
Collect, cleanse and harmonize real time POS retailer data and integrate them with internal, syndicated and social sentiment data
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Quickly spot trends and critical processesImprove responsiveness, increase productivity, drive efficiency
Benefits� Improve responsiveness by instantly spotting demand issues and deviations with state of the art analytics� Increase productivity by empowering business users with role based reports/analytics on any device� Drive efficiency across your entire organization with role based
SenseAnalyzeRespond
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Respond faster to demand fluctuationsIntegrate your downstream business processes
SenseAnalyzeRespond
Streamline downstream fulfillment process with improved demand visibility
Optimize inventory levels with more accurate forecasting and planning
Reduce lost sales with more precise identification of out-of-stock situations
Improve customer service levels with a deeper understanding of your customer’s behavior
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Key Value PropositionsSupply Chain, Sales and Marketing
Promotion Effectiveness
Track promotion participation and compliance and track price variation per store
Market Share Analysis
Monitor market share changes and identify root causes for declines in sales
ForecastAccuracy
Monitor demand and market data and analyze historic sales and promotions to increase forecast accuracy
Out of StockReduction
Reduce lost sales by monitoring inventory levels and quickly spotting stores with out of stock
Product LaunchSuccess
Track store sales, price and promotions for new product launches and ensure stock availability
Sales Analysis& Planning
Analyze demand data and benchmark store sales to identify critical issues and prioritize sales visits
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 15
Key Takeaways
With SAP Demand Signal Management you can
Gain valuable, real-time insights to enable responsive, demand-driven processes for supply chain, sales, and marketing
Drive performance improvements in planning & execution e.g. promotion effectiveness, forecast accuracy
Avoid Lost Sales by promptly discovering currentlyoccuring or upcoming no-sales situations
DSiM in a nutshellDelivers powerful capabilities to manage and analyze massive volumes of demand data (Retail POS, market data, internal data)
3
2
1
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Enterprise Demand SensingPredictive analytics that increase near-term sales while reducing stock-outs
Capture trends and service performance
Improve accuracy and reduce latency
Create effective demand-response strategies
• Compare and mathematically blend different forecast sources with demand analytics
• Characterize demand by analyzing historical forecast accuracy, bias and intermittency trends
• Track service performance by customer with order analytics
• Boost sales by predicting and reducing stock-outs with demand patterns and trends recognition
• Free planners from granular micro-forecasting through enterprise-scale predictive mathematics
• Find revenue upside opportunities by tapping data from downstream demand signal repositories (DSR)
• Lower repositioning costs through improved short term forecasts
• Improve production and deployment agility by translating demand signals to short term supply requirements
• Improve collaboration with downstream partners through embedded analytics, scenario analysis and collaboration tools
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EDS is part of the SAP Demand Management Solution
Analyze DemandIdentify problems and focus efforts
Collaborative Demand Planning
Integrate demand signals and generate a consensus demand plan
Capture Demand SignalsIncorporate external and internal information to feed demand planning
Sense DemandDaily forecasting based on pattern recognition
Demand ResponseFeed other processes to deliver results
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What about the short term forecast? Demand Sensing bridges the gap between planning and execution
Annual Budget Orders/Stock Transfers
Forecasts Used Statistical à Consensus
Data Granularity
� Deployment/Distribution
� Kitting/Packaging
� Order Fulfillment
� Logistics Execution
� S&OP
� Demand Mgmt
� Demand Planning
� Inventory Planning
� Production Planning
� Annual Budgeting Planning
� Annual Strategic Planning
� Network Design
� Demand Sensing
Short TermMedium TermLong Term ExecutionYears WeeksMonths Days
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Accessing timely demand information from the supply
network is difficult or impossible
Planning and forecasting processes with high
volumes of data can be very time consuming
Decisions are often based on incomplete, inaccurate,
and often outdated information
Turning SCM Issues into Opportunities with SAP HANA
Deep visibility into large volumes of supply chain-
related dataAccess to real-time
supply chain-related data
Fast analysis and simulations
Make more profitable decisions with Supply Chain Info Center
Enable a demand-driven supply chain in real time with Enterprise Demand Sensing & Demand Signal Mgmt.
Accelerate critical supply chain processes with Sales & Operations Planning
SAP HANA
Issu
esO
ppor
tuni
ties
for S
uppl
y C
hain
s
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What Does Demand Sensing Bring to Demand Management?
Supported Business Processes:� Demand Input for Sales and Operations Planning
� Enterprise Wide Forecasting
� Tactical Planning
� Supports Full Horizon Supply Planning
Attributes:� Uses historical seasonal trend to predict weekly or monthly sales
� Uses econometric models focused on historical sales
� Input for tactical consumption, supply, production plans
Supported Business Processes:� Finished Inventory Positioning and Distribution
� Fulfillment
� Packaging
� Final Production and Assembly
Attributes:� Uses multiple demand signals and order patterns to
predict daily sales
� Runs pattern recognition algorithms on optimal blend of current demand signals
� Development of short-term demand plan
Tactical Demand ManagementDemand Sensing
Daily/weekly disaggregation by item/location 2 months Weekly/monthly aggregation 12-24 months
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Improved Short Term Forecasts will Supercharge your supply chain!
Deployment Planning
Transportation Planning
Inventory Optimization
Mid-Cycle S&OP
Automatically adjust daily deployment plans based on daily demand patterns in SAP APO Supply Network Planning.
ü Improve Planner Productivityü Reduce Expeditesü Improve Customer Product Availability
Achieve Benefits with Your Data
ü Automatically keep your forecasts up to dateü Keep your supply plan in sync with your REAL
demand
ü Improve Planner Productivityü Less guessing on transportation requirementsü Improve your Stock Transfer Orders
ü Improve forecast accuracyü Reduce Inventory Requirementsü Achieve High Service Levels
Feed SAP Enterprise Inventory and Service-Level Optimization with a more accurate forecast resulting in lower inventory requirements.
View SAP APO Demand Planning with a refined forecast based on the latest demand signals. (Weekly or daily)
Automatically adjust daily deployment plans based on daily demand patterns in SAP APO Supply Network Planning.
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 22
EDS identifies optimal blend of inputs to calculate demand
Adjustments
Disaggregation
Forecast patterns
Shipment patterns
Open order patterns
Optimal blendOpen order correction
Predicted future bias correction
• Daily outputs for execution systems
• Aggregated weekly or monthly values for planning and reporting
• Pattern Prediction
• Forecast feed to SNP for improved deployment
Output
Optimal weighting
Pattern recognition
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SAP Enterprise Demand Sensing
What does SAP EDS offer:§ Real-time supply chain responsiveness to demand signals§ Granular forecasts that would traditionally have required an army of demand
planners to generate§ Frequent updates for enhanced deployment, logistics, and supply planning§ Integration with your existing SAP systems to leverage IT investment§ Embedded analytics and management by exception with a contemporary,
mobile user interface§ Rapid implementation and value capture
What does SAP EDS offer:§ Real-time supply chain responsiveness to demand signals§ Granular forecasts that would traditionally have required an army of demand
planners to generate§ Frequent updates for enhanced deployment, logistics, and supply planning§ Integration with your existing SAP systems to leverage IT investment§ Embedded analytics and management by exception with a contemporary,
mobile user interface§ Rapid implementation and value capture
SAP Supply Chain Control Tower
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SAP Supply Chain Control Tower
Enable supply chain professionals to navigate, analyze and profitably manage the end-to-end supply chain in real-time• Increase on-time delivery performance to
customer• Decrease overall inventory levels while
reducing risk• Reduce supply chain cost• Increase supply chain agility
Common questions facedHow do I get visibility into my global supply chain performance?Where in my supply chain am I likely to face future problems?What are the fundamental drivers, or causes, of my performance?
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 26
Challenge
o Siloed data and processes, with no consistent view of the supply chain
o Cannot identify delays and react in a timely manner
o Missing extended visibility of the future plans combined with historical KPIs
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 27
What are the 3 key differentiators for SAP Supply Chain Control Tower?
Collaborate, communicate and monitor performance of the supply chain
Visibility across internal and external planning and execution systems
Quickly identify, evaluate impact and resolve supply chain problems
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A Day in the Life of a Global Supply Chain Manager
Analyze situation in more detail
Understand global supply chain status
Do quick what-if analysis on how to resolve?
Collaborate with key peopleto fix that issue
Identify the most important issues
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Understand current supply chain status with flexible dashboards
In one view you can see how your supply chain is being managed in most important aspects.
§ Provides historical and forward looking KPIs in a single view
§ Enables user configurable dashboards and analytics
§ Monetized impact of exception conditions
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Get an overview of the top critical situations World wide, end-to-end
Quickly see exceptions along the value chain.For example:
§ In-house or external production shortfalls
§ Excess inventory situations
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Find out more with Custom Alerts providing context and priority
Understand situation, impact on customers and analyze end-to-end material flow in context of alert
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Analyze the complex situations in more detail
3
Ability to quickly analyze situations at multiple levels of aggregation
… KPIs and Key Figure data is always calculated on the fly by SAP HANA
… flexible chart types
1
2
By Location
By Product
Demand Supply Situation on time dimension
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Make better decisions with flexible and fast scenario planning capabilities
Perform what if scenario planning
Evaluate and compare different scenarios
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Agree on path forward, initiate issue resolution, and monitor results
Andrew StockGlobal Inventory Manager
Josephine Carrierexternal Transportation Planner
Gary PlanReplenishment Planner
Elizabeth Factoryexternal Supplier
@Gary: pls. re-distribute the inventory to APJ region where Customer Service levels need to be improved.
@Elizabeth @ Josephine: we need to talk about plans for cw12
I re-distributed inventory to Singapore in SAP
APJ looks good now!@Gary: Many thanks for your help!
ü
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 35
What are the 3 key differentiators for SAP Supply Chain Control Tower?
Collaborate, communicate and monitor performance of the supply chain
Visibility across internal and external planning and execution systems
Quickly identify, evaluate impact and resolve supply chain problems
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 36
Advanced end-user exception management definition
Flexible alert conditions configurable by business users
Monetized measures allows prioritization based on business impact
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Flexible model and KPI definition
37 SAP pre-delivered KPIs20 generic SCM, e.g. Supply Shortage %17 SCOR based, e.g. POF Delivery Date Accuracy
Build your own KPIs
Flexible Model for customer defined • Attributes • Hierarchies• Key Figures• Calculations
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Case and Task Management to resolve issues efficiently
Enables exception tracking and task management for complex supply chain problems.
§ A case collects cause and effect information based on alerts or other identified data elements within Control Tower
§ Enables collaboration and task delegation with internal and external people
§ Powerful audit trail to see when, who and what has been done
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Wrap up - Supply Chain Control Tower
Quickly identify, evaluate impact and resolve supply chain problems
Collaborate, communicate and monitor performance of the supply chain
Visibility across internal and external planning and execution systems
Business Benefits• Increase on-time delivery performance to customer• Decrease overall inventory levels while reducing risk• Reduce supply chain cost• Increase supply chain agility
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Teşekkürlerİletişim Bilgileri:
Emir BarınÇözüm YöneticisiSAP Türkiye+90(530)3911687