It’s Your Future: Strategies for a Healthy Financial Life Christina Perley, Financial Advisor Andrew Senfield, Financial Advisor Benjamin Josephson, Wealth Management Banker
May 12, 2015
It’s Your Future:
Strategies for a Healthy Financial Life
Christina Perley, Financial AdvisorAndrew Senfield, Financial AdvisorBenjamin Josephson, Wealth Management Banker
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Activity
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Today’s Discussion
I. Current Market and Economic Update
Christina Perley, Financial Advisor
II. Financial Planning- Basics for Young Investors
Andrew Senfield, Financial Advisor
III. Buy vs. Rent?
Interest Rate Environment
Benjamin Josephson, Wealth Management Banker
IV. Wrap Up, Q&A
3rd Quarter Market Review
Brutal 3rd Quarter for Risk Assets ~ Global equities and high yield bonds suffered their greatest losses since the
fourth quarter of 2008
Fears of a global recession
EU debt default
Policy impotence
~ Commodity prices collapsed
~ 10-year Treasury yield fell to a record low
~ Equity volatility at its highest since March ’09
~ Investors pricing in a hard landing in China
Intensifying the risk-off sentiment
October was a treat, but ends with a trick3rd best October for S&P since 1928
October was a treat, but ends with a trickWith a return of 10.8% for the S&P 500, October was a treat for investors. It was the third best October and the 23rd highest monthly return for the S&P since 1928. But, renewed concerns over the lack of a solid plan to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis have turned the equity markets to a trick from a treat. The drop of 5.2% from the 28 October high in the S&P 500 has generated two 90% down days on a pick-up in volume. This bear market behavior has tricked the bullish seasonal pattern, but the risk is that Europe’s sovereign debt issues trump bullish year-end seasonals.Key levels to watch – 1200 area support The bad news is that the S&P 500 is back below the 200-day moving average near 1274. While below this moving average, the bullish seasonal bias into year-end is called into question. The good news is that the S&P is testing support at 1230-1200, which is the breakout area of the recently completed double bottom off the 1100-1074 lows. Holding this support would keep the breakout intact with an upside pattern projection of 1350-1360 to as high as 1385. But, with the exception of projected Fibonacci support at 1184-1158, there is not much support ahead of 1100-1074 on a decisive break below 1200.
What to expect moving forward
Our Research Investment Committee’s base case:
~ Over the medium term:
Low growth, Low interest rates, and High liquidity
(portfolios tilted toward assets that generate high growth, high yields and high quality)
~ In the short term, tail risks exist (low probability):
Disorderly Greek debt default
A hard landing in China
Slump in global earnings growth
~ If the global economy avoids a recession:
Policy stimulus gains traction
Yields attract buyers
Possible reversal of fortune for risk assets in 4Q11
7
20-Yr annualized returns by asset class (1990-2009)
(1) Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index.(2) Calculated using Dalbar Funds Flow information.Source: JPMorgan
(1)
(2)
Budgeting
Investing
Retirement Savings
During today’s seminar we will help you explore:
It’s Your FutureWhat We’ll Discuss Today
1) Build a solid spending and savings foundation
2) Develop a relationship with a financial provider
3) Include your spouse or life partner in managing your finances
4) Balance your priorities and make tradeoffs
5) Invest for growth potential while managing risk
6) Safeguard your health and well-being
7) Protect your earnings potential
8) Focus on family and intergenerational topics
9) Expand your life experiences
10) Give Back
Take the long view and invest in yourself
Create the Future You Want
Sources:1 http://projectonstudentdebt.org/files/pub/classof2009.pdf2 https://www1.salliemae.com/about/news_info/newsreleases/041309.htm
The average senior who graduated in 2009 had:
$24k in student loans1
$4.1k in credit card debt2
- 1 in 5 had over $7k in credit card debt
Prioritize what’s important to you
Recognize financial realities- Live within your means
Save as much as you can- Pay yourself first
Manage liabilities as well as assets
The SolutionYoung and in Debt
The ChallengesNewly Graduated/Newly in Debt
$.31
$.49
$.04
$.57
19601 2010
$2.73
$3.67
$.44
$1.37
20502
$7.33
$9.85
$1.18
$3.68
1 http://www.1960sflashback.com/1960/Economy.asp2 Assumed 2.5% Inflation Rate from 2010 through 2050
InflationA Necessary Planning Factor
BudgetingBudgeting
Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. Assumed minimum payment is calculated by using 2.5% of the balance
BudgetingDevelop a Budget and Stick to It
Create a budget to help plan for the long term
Become more aware of day-to-day cash flow and expenses
Pay down debt, especially high-interest debt
Consider health care and insurance options
Set up an emergency fund
High Interest Debt can be crippling
Paying the minimum balance on a $1,000 balance credit card with an 18% APR will take 153 months to pay off and you would have paid $1,115.41 in interest!
http://www.smartmoney.com/personal-finance/real-estate/to-rent-or-to-buy-9687/
Flexibility (can relocate easily) Can invest money elsewhere
(stock market) No upkeep fees
(drippy faucets, broken dishwashers, etc.)
No Equity Annual rent increase
could outpace inflation
BudgetingBuy or Rent?
Renting
Pros Cons
Tax-break: deduct mortgage interest and property taxes
Potential tax-free capital gain Emotional satisfaction
Property tax and upkeep Mortgage costs Less flexibility should you
want to move; in very bad housing markets, you could lose principal
Buying
The interest rate of this loan is locked in
at origination and remains the same throughout the
term of the loan
These loans have an interest rate that is tied
to an index, changing with prevailing market rates
Adjustable Rate Mortgage
Fixed Rate Mortgage
BudgetingFinancing a Home
The FHA loan is a fixed rate mortgage that is
designed especially for the first time home buyer of moderate or low income.
A VA loan, is designed for men and women with a history of active military service or he/she is the surviving spouse of an active service member.
Government Guaranteed Loans
InvestingInvesting
Taking Control
Investors can take greater control of their financial situation.
Learn about investing Identify your financial goals Work with a Financial Advisor Monitor your portfolio
A Strategy Defined By Your Goals
Your overall investment strategy depends on:
Your goals, timetable and tolerance for risk A balance of stocks, bonds and cash Monitoring and rebalancing your portfolio
The more time you have, the more aggressive you can be!
??
? STOCKS
BONDS
CASH
20%
55%
25%40%
50%
10%
60%35%
5%
70%
25%
5%
80%
15%
5%
ConservativeModerately
Conservative ModerateModeratelyAggressive Aggressive
StocksBonds Cash
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research Investment Committee (RIC) Report, March, 2011. Models are for illustrative purposes only. Merrill Lynch has changed the allocations for each model in the past and may change the allocations in the future, depending upon research and investment strategy recommendations.
Determining An Appropriate Asset Allocation
Merrill Lynch Asset Allocation Models
16.5 to 1 3.3 to 1 2.3 to 1
"The 2009 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds," May 12, 2009.
2010 20251950
Not-so-good News: Social Security Is Threatened by an Aging Population
Ratio of Workers to Beneficiaries
Number of Defined Contribution PlansNumber of Defined Benefit Plans
Private Pension Plans, Participation, and Assets: Update(Data from tabulations of the U.S. Department of Labor's Form 5500)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1974 1986 19980
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1974 1986 1998
Not Your Parent’s Retirement Plan
There Is Hope “The Rule of 72”
"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ...
he who doesn't ... pays it." - Attributed to Albert Einstein
The “Rule of 72” is a simple way to determine how long an investment could take to double, given a fixed annual rate of interest.
You divide 72 by the annual rate of return, to get an estimate of how many years it could take for the initial investment to double.
Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. Results are not meant to represent the past or future performance of any specific investment vehicle. Actual rates of return cannot be predicted and will fluctuate. Your results may be more or less.
Example $100 invested at 10% would take approximately 7.2 years to turn into $200.
Start Saving As Soon As You Can
The sooner you start, the more money you could potentially have in retirement
This hypothetical illustration assumes an annual $5000 IRA contribution made at the beginning of each year for 35 years, a 7% annual rate of return, and no taxes on any earnings within the IRA. Hypothetical results are for illustrative purposes only and are not meant to represent the past or future performance of any specific investment vehicle. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate and when redeemed the investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
(35 Years later)At Retirement
$5,000
$739,567
Save for Retirement Every Year
Even one year can potentially make a difference in your nest egg
This hypothetical illustration assumes annual $5000 IRA contribution made at the beginning of each year and beginning one year apart for various ages, a 7% annual rate of return, and no taxes on any earnings within the IRA until the age of 71. Hypothetical results are for illustrative purposes only and are not meant to represent the past or future performance of any specific investment vehicle. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate and when redeemed the investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
Roth IRATraditional IRA
Choose the IRA That’s Right for You
Contributions may be tax-deductible
Withdrawals taxed as ordinary income
Contributions are not tax-deductible
Withdrawals are taken tax-free
Must be under 70½ to open and contribute
Anyone with earned income can contribute
No age limit
Contribution eligibility is based on income
Required Minimum Distributions
Distributions prior to age 59½ may incur a 10% additional federal tax
No Required Minimum Distributions
10% additional federal tax on early withdrawals applies to earnings only
Meet Your Company Match In 401(k) Plans
Many companies offer to match a percentage of employees’ 401(k) contributions
Investors should consider contributing at least as much as the company is willing to match
Don’t leave “free money” on the table by failing to contribute to your company’s 401(k)
¹ http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/nlsoy.pdf, September 2010
The average person born in the latter years of the baby boom held
11 jobs from age 18 to age 441
Reasons to Invest EarlyImpacts on Your Paycheck
A pre-tax contribution to your retirement account reduces your take home pay less than the amount of your contribution.
Example
Mary is 35 and her annual salary is $50,000. She wants to contribute 5% of her salary to her 401(k) to take advantage of her company’s matching contributions and retire in 30 years.
Results- Mary’s monthly take-home pay would be reduced by: $156 - Her annual income tax bill would decrease by: $625 - With an employer match, at age 65 her account would
grow to: $395,291
This hypothetical illustration assumes a 5% contribution rate at the beginning of each year, a 6% annual rate of return, and a 25% federal tax bracket (state and local taxes are not included). It also assumes a company match of 100% for every dollar contributed up to 5% of eligible compensation. Hypothetical results are for illustrative purposes only and are not meant to represent the past or future performance of any specific investment vehicle. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate and when redeemed the investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Taxes are due upon withdrawal. If you take a withdrawal prior to age 59½, you may also be subject to a 10% additional federal tax.
Best Practices to Help You Plan for your Future
Save Every Year
Pay Down Debt
Monitor and Adjust Your Portfolio
Start Saving As Soon As You Can
Meet Your Company’s 401(k) Match
Create A Budget
Questions?Questions?