See the last page for disclaimer 1 of 12 Equity Research Equity Research Report Morning Research Focus 股 票 研 究 今 晨 焦 点 证 券 研 究 报 告 Morning Research Focus Research Department 1 November 2019 [Table_Summary] Table of Contents 目录 News Focus 新闻焦点 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Hong Kong Banks Cut HKD Prime Rates by 12.5bps 香港银行下调港元最优惠贷款利率 12.5 个基点 CNBM (03323 HK): 3Q2019 Net Profit Increased by 19.9% YoY and Slightly Beat Expectations 中国建材 (03323 HK):2019 年第三季度净利润同比增长 19.9%,略超预期 China Zhongwang (01333 HK): 3Q2019 Total Net Profit Decreased 39.2% YoY 中国忠旺 (01333 HK):2019 年度三季度总净利同比减少 39.2% Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码 Title 标题 TP 目标价 Chg Rating 评级 Chg 变动 EPS Est.Change? 盈利预测是否改变 China Gold International 02099 HK Operations of the Company is Stable, Maintain "Neutral" HK$7.00 ↓ Neutral -- Y 中国黄金国际 02099 HK 公司运营稳定,维持“中性”评级 HK$7.00 ↓ 中性 -- 是 Shanghai Electric 02727 HK 9M2019 Earnings Increased 2.0% YoY, Reiterate "Buy" HK$3.50 ↓ Buy -- Y 上海电气 02727 HK 2019 年前 9 个月盈利同比增 2.0%,重申 “买入” HK$3.50 ↓ 买入 -- 是 MGM China 02282 HK Flash Note: 3Q2019 EBITDA Increased 38.6% YoY but Missed Our Forecast HK$13.90 -- Buy -- N 美高梅中国 02282 HK 快讯: 2019 年第 3 季度 EBITDA 同比增 长 38.6%但未能达到我们的预期 HK$13.90 -- 买入 -- 否 Air China 00753 HK 3Q19 Grew by Cost Savings, Maintain "Accumulate" HK$7.54 ↓ Accumulate -- Y 中国国航 00753 HK 2019 年第 3 季度因成本节省而增长,维 持“收集” HK$7.54 ↓ 收集 -- 是 Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附:行业和公司焦点,最新报告摘要中文版。
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[Table Title] Morning Research Focus · China Zhongwang (01333 HK): 3Q2019 Total Net Profit Decreased 39.2% YoY 中国忠旺(01333 HK):2019 年度三季度总净利同比减少39.2%
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See the last page for disclaimer 1 of 12
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证 券
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报 告
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股
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[Table_Title]
Morning Research Focus
Research Department
1 November 2019
[Table_Summary] Table of Contents 目录
News Focus 新闻焦点
Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点
Hong Kong Banks Cut HKD Prime Rates by 12.5bps
香港银行下调港元最优惠贷款利率 12.5 个基点
CNBM (03323 HK): 3Q2019 Net Profit Increased by 19.9% YoY and Slightly Beat Expectations
中国建材 (03323 HK):2019 年第三季度净利润同比增长 19.9%,略超预期
China Zhongwang (01333 HK): 3Q2019 Total Net Profit Decreased 39.2% YoY
中国忠旺 (01333 HK):2019 年度三季度总净利同比减少 39.2%
Latest Reports 最新报告摘要
Company
Name
公司名称
Code
代码
Title
标题
TP
目标价
Chg
z
Rating
评级
Chg
变动
EPS
Est.Change?
盈利预测是否改变
China Gold International
02099 HK Operations of the Company is Stable, Maintain "Neutral"
HK$7.00 ↓ Neutral -- Y
中国黄金国际 02099 HK 公司运营稳定,维持“中性”评级 HK$7.00 ↓ 中性 -- 是
Shanghai
Electric 02727 HK
9M2019 Earnings Increased 2.0%
YoY, Reiterate "Buy" HK$3.50 ↓ Buy -- Y
上海电气 02727 HK 2019 年前 9 个月盈利同比增 2.0%,重申“买入”
HK$3.50 ↓ 买入 -- 是
MGM China 02282 HK Flash Note: 3Q2019 EBITDA Increased 38.6% YoY but Missed Our Forecast
Source: the Company. Note: *Adjusted EBITDA is profit before finance costs, income tax benefit/expense, depreciation and amortization, gain/loss on disposal/write-off of property and equipment, construction in progress and other assets, interest income, net foreign currency difference, share-based payments, pre-opening costs and corporate expenses which mainly include administrative expenses of the corporate office and license fee paid to a related company.
In 3Q2019, MGM China gained market share as total revenue increased 21.5% yoy to HK$5,777 million, compared
to the 4.1% yoy decline in Macau sector gross gaming revenue. MGM China’s 3Q2019 revenue was in line with
(0.3% above) our forecast. The strong revenue growth was primarily a result of the continued ramp-up in operations at
MGM Cotai following its opening in February 2018. The Company’s mass segment table games win increased 47% yoy
due to the addition of 25 new-to-market tables at MGM Cotai in 2019 and a 5.6 ppt increase in win rate. VIP table games
win increased 5% yoy due to the opening of VIP gaming areas at the end of 3Q2018 at MGM Cotai and an increase in the
VIP table games win percentage.
MGM China’s 3Q2019 adjusted EBITDA increased 38.6% yoy to HK$1,549 million, missing our forecast by 9.7%.
Morning Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer 6 of 12
Primarily as a result of the continued ramp-up of operations at MGM Cotai, the Company’s adjusted EBITDA margin
increased by 3.3 ppt yoy to 26.8%, but was still less than expected. At the property level, adjusted EBITDA at MGM Cotai
increased 433.3% yoy to HK$692.9 million with margin of 24.3% (compared to just 9.6% in 3Q2018). At the MGM Macau
property, due to lower revenue, adjusted EBITDA decreased 13.3% yoy to HK$855.6 million on margin of 29.2%, which
increased 0.2 ppt yoy and was higher than that of MGM Cotai.
Due to the earnings miss, we may revise down our earnings forecasts and target price in our next Company
Report. Our current investment rating for MGM China is "Buy" with target price of HK$13.90. MGM China's share price
last closed at HK$12.46. The Company’s gross gaming revenue growth greatly outperformed the market during the
quarter, leading to MGM China increasing its market share from 7.8% in 2Q2018 to 10.2% in 3Q2019. However, cost
savings were less than we had expected, and so the Company's EBITDA missed our forecast.
Air China(00753 HK):3Q19 Grew by Cost Savings, Maintain "Accumulate"
Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$7.54
Analyst: Toliver Ma Report Date: 2019-10-31
Summary
Air China’s net profit increased 4.4% yoy to RMB3,623 million in 3Q19; roughly in line. The Company achieved
profit growth through cost savings, with low fuel cost due to low oil price and reduced shipping insurance. Less
contribution to the Civil Aviation Development Fund also helped save about RMB200 million. However, revenue was
down 2.3% yoy as dragged by a decrease in passenger yield during 3Q19 with domestic and international routes slightly
down yoy. Net margin improved 0.6 ppts yoy to 9.6%. In 3Q18, AC
booked RMB 2,622 million finance cost in million, and we estimated exchange gain loss to be about RMB 2,000 million
in 3 Q18.
We have revised downwards our net profit forecasts in 2019/ 2020/ 2021 by 12.0%/ 11.2%/ 12.1%, respectively.
We have mainly reduced our passenger yield assumptions to reflect a more challenging environment. ASK guidance
from the management was roughly in line with our expectation, such that the management expects domestic/
international routes will increase 6%/ 8%, respectively, in 2020. Therefore, we maintain ASK assumption unchanged.
We maintain investment rating as "Accumulate", and trim TP to HK$7.54 on lowered earnings. Our TP
represents 1.0x 2019 PBR and 0.9x 2020 PBR. We still view the Company as attractive due to low valuation. Our
valuation is just slightly below its long-term mean, thus we think it’s appropriate.
[Table_NewlyPublished] Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe
中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据
Analyst: Jack Wu 分析员:吴狄
Country
国家
Indicator
指标名称
Data Period
数据期间
Current Value
当期值
MoM / QoQ
环比变动
YoY
同比变动
Market Consensus
市场一致预期
China
中国
Official Manufacturing PMI
官方制造业采购经理指数
Oct
10月 49.3 (0.5ppts) (0.9ppts) 49.8
Europe
欧洲
Euro Area GDP QoQ
度欧元区 GDP 季环比增速
3Q
三季度 0.2% (0.1ppts) 0.0ppts 0.1%
Europe
欧洲
Euro Area GDP YoY
欧元区 GDP 同比增速
3Q
三季度 1.1% (0.1ppts) (0.5ppts) 1.1%
Europe
欧洲
Euro-zone Inflation YoY
欧元区通胀率同比增速
Oct
10月 0.7% (0.1ppts) (1.5ppts) 0.7%
Europe
欧洲
Unemployment Rate, SA
欧元区季调失业率
Sep
9月 7.5% 0.1ppts (0.5ppts) 7.4%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, University of Michigan, Bloomberg
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating Definition
Buy 买入 Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Accumulate 收集 Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.
Reduce 减持 Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sell 卖出 Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sector Rating Definition
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating Definition
Outperform 跑赢大市 Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.
Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.
Underperform 跑输大市 Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
[Table_DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS] DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS
(1) Except for SHENZHEN INTERNATIONAL (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
(2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for KAISA GROUP (01638 HK),GUOTAI JUNAN I (01788 HK),JXR (01951 HK),CHINA MINSHENG BANKING CORP.- H SHARES
(01988 HK),BANK OF GANSU (02139 HK),JINSHANG BANK (02558 HK),ZHONGLIANG HLDG (02772 HK),BINHAI INVESTMENT (02886 HK),CAM SCSMALLCAP (03157 HK),HAITIAN ANTENNA (08227 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
(4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with SMI HOLDINGS GROUP (00198 HK),CHINA TRAVEL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT HONG KONG LIMITED (00308 HK),CHINA GAS (00384 HK),GOME ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES (00493 HK),TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED (00780 HK),DONGJIANG ENVIRONMENTAL- H SHARES (00895 HK),CHINA MOBILE (00941 HK),MODERN LAND (01107 HK),POWERLONG REAL ESTATE (01238 HK),CHINA EVERBRIGHT GREENTECH LIMITED (01257 HK),CHINA SOUTH CITY (01668 HK),COLOUR LIFE SERVICES (01778 HK),PRINX CHENGSHAN (01809 HK),XIAOMI CORPORATION (01810 HK),CHINA RISUN GROUP (01907 HK),BAIC MOTOR- H SHARES (01958 HK),COUNTRY GARDEN (02007 HK),RONSHINE CHINA (03301 HK),CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION INTERNATIONAL (03311 HK),XIEZHONG INTERNATIONAL (03663 HK),MEITUAN DIANPING (03690 HK),HUISHANG BANK- H SHARES (03698 HK),CHINA AOYUAN PROPERTY (03883 HK),GREENTOWN CHINA (03900 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.
(5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research
Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.