Table of Contentsicasp12.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2013/01/Programme55by85final_Optimi… · Pol Spanos, USA George Stefanou, Greece Mark G. Stewart, Australia Daniel Straub, Germany

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Table of Contents Welcome ....................................................................................... 4  Sponsors ....................................................................................... 5  Conference Organization .............................................................. 6  Scientific Committee ..................................................................... 7  Keynote Speakers ........................................................................ 8  Awards .......................................................................................... 9  Instructions for Speakers ............................................................ 10  Instructions for Chairpersons ...................................................... 10  About the Proceedings ............................................................... 10  Plenary Debate ........................................................................... 10  Banquet Dinner and Monte Carlo Casino ................................... 10  Schedule at a Glance ................................................................. 11  Overview of General Sessions and Mini-Symposia .................... 12  Session Schedule ....................................................................... 14  

Conference Level Floor Plan ....................................................... 15  Upper Conference Level Floor Plan ............................................ 16  Monday Morning (10:30am – 12noon) ........................................ 17  Monday Early Afternoon (1:30pm – 3pm) ................................... 18  Monday Late Afternoon (3:30pm – 5pm) ..................................... 19  Tuesday Morning (10:30am – 12noon) ....................................... 20  Tuesday Early Afternoon (1:30pm – 3pm) .................................. 21  Tuesday Late Afternoon (3:30pm – 5pm) .................................... 22  Wednesday Morning (10:30am – 12noon) .................................. 23  Wednesday Early Afternoon (1:30pm – 3pm) ............................. 24  Wednesday Late Afternoon (3:30pm – 5pm) .............................. 25  Author Index ................................................................................ 26  Paper Index ................................................................................. 29  Map Around the Conference Venue ............................................ 35  

Photo credits: • The front-page photo of the Inukshuk near the ICASP12 venue is shot by Tim Shields. The ICASP12 organizers added the text and line. The original is posted at www.flickr.com

and Shields’ photo is used here for noncommercial purposes under the license agreement posted here: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/legalcode. • The image of Vancouver featured at the top of the conference website is provided by Chris Collacott. Through his website www.avision.ca and the store Fast Frames across the

street from the conference venue he offers beautiful pictures of Vancouver that are excellent souvenirs from this city. You will find more nice souvenirs at Granville Island.

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Welcome I am delighted to welcome you to Vancouver on the occasion of the twelfth ICASP. We convene in this beautiful city to discuss new developments and to motivate the next bloom of research in our field. We also come together to celebrate. Our research community is as vibrant as ever with strong contributions from far and wide. After a stringent review process applied to both abstracts and papers we will see nearly 300 presentations of high-quality papers at this conference, with delegates from more than 40 countries. We also convene at a time when the public and news media are taking a greater interest in risk and uncertainty associated with engineering projects. In Vancouver the earthquake hazard and the potential for oil spills are examples that are frequently discussed in the news and over water coolers. Our research plays a vital role in modelling the uncertainties, evaluating the risks, and identifying good decisions.

The ICASP conferences, i.e., the International Conferences on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering are organized under the auspices of CERRA, the Civil Engineering Risk and Reliability Association. The principal activity of CERRA is the sponsoring and overseeing of the ICASP conferences. You will find more information about CERRA at www.ce.berkeley.edu/projects/cerra. ICASP is one of the two major conferences on statistics, reliability, probability, and risk in engineering. The other is the International Conferences on Structural Safety and Reliability, ICOSSAR, organized by the International Association for Structural Safety and Reliability, IASSAR. It is an exciting development that IASSAR has provided sponsorship for the ICASP12 conference, which I am sincerely thankful for. This support will be reciprocated by CERRA at the next ICOSSAR and I hereby express my gratitude to both IASSAR and CERRA for this collaboration.

The primary reason for your visit to Vancouver is the ICASP12 proceedings, but you should also enjoy the city and the beautiful province of British Columbia. Vancouver is one of the World’s most liveable cities and the conference venue in English Bay epitomizes many of the reasons why. When you stand at the corner of Davie Street and Denman Street you have nearby an unparalleled collection of beaches, parks, shops, restaurants, bars, and coffee shops. I also encourage you to explore the many walking and biking options in Stanley Park and along the equally famous Seawall that circumscribe Vancouver. Please visit the Activities page at the conference website, www.icasp12.ubc.ca, for some ideas. If you experience a serious emergency then dial 9-1-1 to reach ambulance/fire/police. For other matters you can simply email [email protected] at any time; we are eager to help you enjoy your stay in Vancouver!

On all three days of the conference we provide lunch at the hotel and two coffee breaks with snacks. I am counting on your attendance for the full three-day duration of the conference to ensure a vibrant and well-attended event. There will be plenty of high-quality contributions to see on all three days. In short, welcome to Vancouver and ICASP12. Enjoy!

Sincerely,

Professor Terje Haukaas Chair of ICASP12

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Sponsors

Financial sponsors Nonfinancial sponsors

Gold:

Bronze:

Menun Risk Consulting Services, Inc.

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Conference Organization Conference Chair: Terje Haukaas Local Organizing Committee: Terje Haukaas, UBC Vancouver Ricardo Foschi, UBC Vancouver Frank Lam, UBC Vancouver Organizing Association: Civil Engineering Risk and Reliability Association, CERRA CERRA Board of Directors: Michael Faber, President, Denmark Terje Haukaas, Chairman, Canada Armen Der Kiureghian, Past President, Secretary, USA Samer Madanat, Treasurer, USA Jun Kanda, Past President, Japan David de Leon, Mexico Jie Li, China Junho Song, USA John D. Sorensen, Denmark Mark G. Stewart, Australia Daniel Straub, Germany Bruno Sudret, Switzerland

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Scientific Committee Jitendra Agarwal, UK Laurence Alison, UK Al H.-S. Ang, USA Giuseppe T. Aronica, Italy Sui-Kui Au, UK Giuliano Augusti, Italy Jack Baker, USA Michele Barbato, USA Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga, France Z.P. Bazant, USA Paolo Bazzurro, Italy Armin Bebamzadeh, Canada James L. Beck, USA André T. Beck, Brazil Michael Beer, UK Fabio Biondini, Italy Jean-Marc Bourinet, France Karl Breitung, Germany Michael Bründl, Switzerland Christian Bucher, Austria Joan Ramon Casas, Spain Fabio Casciati, Italy Eun Jeong Cha, USA Alaa Chateauneuf, France Jianbing Chen, China Jianye Ching, Taiwan Marios Chryssanthopoulos, UK Gian Paolo Cimellaro, Italy Joel P. Conte, USA Ross Corotis, USA Mayssa Dabaghi, USA Dagang Lu, China Markus Dann, Canada David De Leon, Mexico George Deodatis, USA Armen Der Kiureghian, USA Francisco A. Diaz De la O, UK

Leonardo Duenas-Osorio, USA Bruce Ellingwood, USA Michael P. Enright, USA Luis Esteva Maraboto, Mexico Michael H. Faber, Denmark Lucia Faravelli, Italy Gordon Fenton, Canada Gerhard Fink, Switzerland Ricardo Foschi, Canada Paolo Franchin, Italy Dan M. Frangopol, USA Hitoshi Furuta, Japan Carmine Galasso, UK Paolo Gardoni, USA Roger Ghanem, USA Michel Ghosn, USA Agathoklis Giaralis, UK Massimiliano Gioffrè, Italy Katsu Goda, UK Wellison Gomes, Brazil James A. Goulet, Switzerland Mircea D. Grigoriu, USA Carlos Guedes Soares, Portugal Achintya Haldar, USA Terje Haukaas, Canada Hanping Hong, Canada Bin Huang, China Luc Huyse, USA Iunio Iervolino, Italy Fatemeh Jalayer, Italy Hector Jensen, Chile Boris Jeremic, USA Jun Kanda, Japan Ahsan Kareem, USA Anne S. Kiremidjian, USA Smitha Koduru, Canada Jochen Koehler, Norway

Katerina Konakli, Denmark Ioannis Kougioumtzoglou, UK Frank Lam, Canada Jan Laue, Switzerland Bernt J. Leira, Norway Jie Li, China Yue Li, USA Abbie Liel, USA Niels C. Lind, Canada Nicolas Luco, USA Alessio Lupoi, Italy Samer Madanat, USA Marc A. Maes, Canada Sankaran Mahadevan, USA Mojtaba Mahsuli, Iran Samy Missoum, USA Torgeir Moan, Norway Yasuhiro Mori, Japan Jimmy Murphy, Ireland Gabe Mythen, UK Arvid Naess, Norway Soren R.K. Nielsen, Denmark Andrzej S. Nowak, USA Alan O'Connor, Ireland Vikram Pakrashi, Ireland Mahesh Pandey, Canada Weichiang Pang, USA Costas Papadimitriou, Greece Manolis Papadrakakis, Greece Fulvio Parisi, Italy Edoardo Patelli, UK Yongbo Peng, China Kok Kwang Phoon, Singapore Paolo Emilio Pinto, Italy Matteo Pozzi, USA Sanaz Rezaeian, USA David V. Rosowsky, USA Tiziana Rossetto, UK

Johannes Royset, USA Mauricio Sanchez-Silva, Colombia Salvatore Sessa, Italy Kallol Sett, USA Robert G. Sexsmith, Canada Abdollah Shafieezadeh, USA Vitor Silva, Italy Junho Song, Korea John D. Sorensen, Denmark Olga Spackova, Germany Pol Spanos, USA George Stefanou, Greece Mark G. Stewart, Australia Daniel Straub, Germany Bruno Sudret, Switzerland Luc Taerwe, Belgium Alexandros Taflanidis, USA Tsuyoshi Takada, Japan Thomas Tannert, Canada Solomon Tesfamariam, Canada Sven Thelandersson, Sweden Sebastian Thöns, Denmark Dimitri Val, UK Dimitrios Vamvatsikos, Greece John van de Lindt, USA Miroslav Vorechovsky, Czech Republic Ton Vrouwenvelder, Netherlands Naiyu Wang, USA Xiaoming Wang, Australia Fumio Yamazaki, Japan Semih M. Yucemen, Turkey Wenxing Zhou, Canada Enrico Zio, Italy Konstantin Zuev, UK

Keynote Speakers Des Hartford “From Abstraction to Reality: Roles of probability, loss, cost-benefit analysis and risk in safety decision-making” Dr. Des Hartford, BA, BAI, MA, Ph.D, F.EIC, F.ICE, F.IEI, C.Eng, P.Eng, Eur.Ing, is Principal Engineering Scientist at BC Hydro reporting to the Director of Dam Safety. Dr. Hartford who has received several national and international awards and honours is an overseas member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences and in 2011 was voted one of the 20 most influential engineers in the world of Hydropower and Dam Engineering. Dr. Hartford’s responsibilities at BC Hydro span the development of risk management policy, risk informed decision processes, and risk-informed management systems for BC Hydro’s Hydropower and Dams risk profile. He is also responsible for introducing Systems Engineering techniques into the analysis of functionality of river systems and associated hydropower sub-systems; guiding the application of Engineering Principles-based assessment of spillway gate reliability comparable to those of the UK nuclear safety case regime; and leading BC Hydro’s research and development activities for dam safety. Dr. Hartford was appointed Adjunct Professor in Civil Engineering at the University of Western Ontario to provide industry guidance and supervision on a new research project to develop a prototype systems engineering model suitable for application in BC Hydro’s natural and operating environment. Armen Der Kiureghian “New developments in tail-equivalent linearization method for nonlinear stochastic dynamics” Dr. Armen Der Kiureghian is currently the fourth President of the American University of Armenia and a Taisei Professor Emeritus of the University of California, Berkeley, where he served for 37 years in various positions. Der Kiureghian is a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers and a Fellow of its Institute of Engineering Mechanics. He is a past President of CERRA and served as Chair of the IASSAR Committee on System Reliability and Optimization. In the past, he has served as the Chair of the ASCE Engineering Mechanics Division Technical Committee on Probabilistic Methods and as Vice Chair of the Editorial Board of its Journal of Engineering Mechanics. Der Kiureghian’s teaching and research have been in the areas of risk and reliability of constructed facilities and systems, stochastic structural dynamics, earthquake engineering, and engineering decision making. He has authored more than 400 publications, including 117 in archival journals. He has supervised 30 doctoral candidates to completion, all of whom are highly successful specialists in academia or industry. Der Kiureghian’s research has been recognized by numerous awards, including the ASCE’s Walter L. Huber Civil Engineering Research Prize (1988), Alfred M. Freudenthal Medal (2006), Thomas A. Middlebrooks Award (2006), George Winter Medal (2014), CERRA Award (1999), and the IASSAR’s Distinguished Research Award (2013). He is an elected foreign member of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia since 1998 and an elected member of the US National Academy of Engineering since 2011. Der Kiureghian received his B.S. and M.S. in Civil Engineering from Tehran University, Iran, and his Ph.D. in Civil Engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

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Awards 2015 C. Allin Cornell CERRA Award: Dr. Gordon Fenton As is generally known, a large number of aspects become relevant when assessing the reliability of a structure: Loads and agents, global structural behaviour, local properties of structural members and joints, and so on. It is perhaps obvious but often neglected that soil structures and foundations need to be assessed in the same way. To put it mildly, communication between structural and geotechnical engineers is not always optimal. In particular with respect to the reliability aspects, different terminology and approaches exist. It appears that the geotechnical world, so far, has taken less advantage from advanced reliability theory than the structural world. From its very beginning in Hong Kong in 1971, the ICASP conference has tried to be a counter-weight and an explicit meeting place for the structural and geotechnical engineer. Fortunately at every conference indeed we see quite a number of inspiring contributions in the field of application of theoretical and practical reliability to foundation engineering and other geotechnical applications. To reward this work the CERRA award committee is delighted to present the 2015 C. Allin Cornell CERRA Award to one of the most outstanding representatives in this group: Dr. Gordon Fenton.

2015 CERRA Lifetime Achievement Award: Dr. Bruce Ellingwood As in other fields of science, the society of experts in reliability engineering is a mix of variously talented people. Some experts show a once-in-a-lifetime brilliant idea, others are able to organize and run a large group of graduate students, open a new field of application or produce a lifelong permanent flow of high level output. In this latter category, Niels Lind and Michael Hasofer received in 1999 the CERRA Lifetime Achievement Award. The present 2015 CERRA award committee decided that it had very good reasons to honour once more a person in this particular way. We are talking of someone with a really impressive publication and citation record, based on work that can be qualified as being of a high scientific standard as well as important engineering relevance. We also refer to a number of practically oriented contributions to several code and standard committees and, last but not least, we are talking about the driving force behind one of the most appreciated journals: Dr. Bruce Ellingwood.

2015 CERRA Student Recognition Awards Junho Chun, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign You Dong, Lehigh University Boutros El Hajj, University of Nantes Ioannis Gidaris, University of Notre Dame Beliz Gokkaya, Stanford University Elaina Jennings, Colorado State University Tim Johnson, Florida Institute of Technology Sabarethinam Kameshwar, Rice University

Sylvain Lacaze, University of Arizona Binbin Li, University of California at Berkeley Jian Li, Rice University Chu Van Mai, ETH Zurich Stylianos Minas, University College London S.Nasim Rezaei, McGill University Kilian Zwirglmaier, Technische Universität München

Instructions for Speakers Please prepare a Powerpoint file with your presentation and include the Paper Number and the Last Name of the presenting author in the filename. You may submit the file either by email to [email protected] at least one day before your presentation or bring a USB memory stick to the session room at least 10 minutes before the start of the session. Please approach the ICASP12 Team member in that room for help with loading the presentation file onto the computer, which is a PC with Powerpoint. Laser pointers are also available. Please practice your presentation to ensure it fits within the 15-minute time limit. Remember, it is often best to avoid slides with large amounts of text. Instructions for Chairpersons Session chairs are responsible for introducing speakers, moderating the question period, and enforcing the time limits. The time allocated for each presentation is 15 minutes plus 3 minutes for short questions and answers. It is important that you strictly enforce this limit to enable delegates to move between rooms with predicable start time for each presentation. If a presenter is absent then please impose a break until the next presentation is scheduled to begin. A bell is placed in each session room to help you enforce the time limit in a firm but entertaining manner. An ICASP12 assistant will be present in each room to load presentation files and assist with technical issues. About the Proceedings The proceedings of ICASP12 are available online and accessible from www.icasp12.ubc.ca. The papers are published by cIRcle, the Digital Repository of the University of British Columbia, www.circle.ubc.ca, and they are indexed in Google Scholar, even before the conference. All papers will be submitted to major databases, including Compendex and Scopus. Each paper has a permanent URL online and there is no printed volume. Authors retain the copyright of their work, signing only a distribution license form. Abstracts were peer-reviewed and authors of accepted abstracts were invited to submit full papers, which were also peer reviewed. Plenary Debate A plenary debate led by the panellists Bruce Ellingwood, Daniel Straub, Fatemeh Jalayer, Inger Birgitte Kroon, Kok Kwang Phoon, and Ton Vrouwenvelder takes place on Tuesday morning. Please feel free to approach the conference chair or the panellists prior to the debate with your views on what the pressing questions for our research community are. And be prepared to engage on Tuesday morning! Banquet Dinner and Monte Carlo Casino The banquet dinner on Tuesday evening will be accompanied by a practical and entertaining exercise in applying the rules of probability. During the reception prior to the dinner and also after dinner there will be a Monte Carlo themed Casino with blackjack, poker, roulette, craps, and other games. Winners will be given a price to acknowledge their skills in applying probabilities in practice! Please review the gambling rules inserted in your conference bag and calculate your odds before betting, using Monte Carlo sampling or other techniques.

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Schedule at a Glance

Sunday July 12

Monday July 13

Tuesday July 14

Wednesday July 15

Thursday July 16

8:30am-9am Opening

Plenary panel

debate

9am-10am Plenary keynote: D. Hartford

Plenary keynote: A. Der Kiureghian

10am-10:30am Coffee break

Coffee break Coffee break Post- conference

10:30am-12noon Morning sessions

Morning sessions

Morning sessions

tour

12noon-1:30pm Lunch at conference level

Lunch at conference level

Lunch at conference level

1:30pm-3pm Early afternoon sessions

Early afternoon sessions

Early afternoon sessions

3pm-3:30pm Coffee break

Coffee break Coffee break

3:30pm-5pm Late afternoon sessions

Late afternoon sessions

Late afternoon sessions

Registration and reception

at 6pm

CERRA General Meeting at 5:30pm

Reception with Monte Carlo Casino at 6pm and banquet

dinner at 7pm

Closing remarks at 5pm

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Overview of General Sessions and Mini-Symposia General Sessions (GS) GS-1: Probabilistic Models GS-17: Wind Engineering GS-3: Reliability Methods GS-18: Risk-based Optimization GS-5: System Reliability Analysis GS-19: Risk Assessment and Management GS-7: Uncertainty Analysis GS-20: Decision-making GS-8: Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis GS-21: Maintenance and Inspection GS-9: Sensitivity Analysis GS-23: Bridge Engineering GS-10: Random Vibrations and Stochastic Processes GS-24: Special Structures GS-12: Hazard Analysis GS-25: Code Calibration GS-13: Damage and Deterioration GS-26: Applications GS-15: Earthquake Engineering Mini-symposia (MS) MS-1: Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs for Engineering Risk Analysis

Organized by Daniel Straub, Matteo Pozzi, James-A. Goulet, Armen Der Kiureghian MS-3: Taming the Computational Complexity of Structure and Infrastructure Performance Assessment Metrics

Organized by Leonardo Duenas-Osorio, Junho Song MS-4: Risk Management of Natural Hazards

Organized by Michael Bründl, Olga Špačková, Ross Corotis MS-5: Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Rainfall-induced Phenomena

Organized by Fatemeh Jalayer, Carmine Galasso, Giuseppe Aronica, Fulvio Parisi MS-6: Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Modelling of Timber

Organized by Gerhard Fink, Jochen Kohler, Frank Lam MS-9: Surrogate Models for Uncertainty Quantification, Reliability Analysis and Robust Design

Organized by Bruno Sudret, Jean-Marc Bourinet, Sankaran Mahadevan, Samy Missoum MS-10: Probabilistic Modeling and Impact Assessment of Cascading Geophysical Hazards

Organized by Katsuichiro Goda, Tiziana Rossetto MS-11: Risk and Resilience Analysis of Infrastructure Systems

Organized by Paolo Franchin, Alessio Lupoi

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MS-12: Bayesian Inference in Engineering: New Methods and Algorithms Organized by Francisco Alejandro Diaz De la O, Edoardo Patelli, Siu-Kui Au, James L. Beck

MS-13: Stochastic Dynamics and Simulation-based Techniques for Performance-based Earthquake Engineering Organized by Agathoklis Giaralis, Ioannis Kougioumtzoglou, Alexandros Taflanidis, Dimitrios Vamvatsikos

MS-14: Reliability and Risk Assessment of Pipelines Organized by Markus R. Dann, Marc A. Maes

MS-15: Reliability of Geotechnical Structures, sponsored by ISSMGE TC304 and GI-RAM Organized by Kok-Kwang Phoon, Gordon A. Fenton, Jianye Ching

MS-16: Probability Density Evolution Theory and Its Applications Organized by Jie Li, Jianbing Chen, Yongbo Peng, Pol D. Spanos

MS-17: Communicating Risk Under High Uncertainty: Developing Cross-disciplinary Knowledge Organized by Laurence Alison, Gabe Mythen, Michael Beer, Ross B. Corotis

MS-19: Risk-targeted Response Spectra for Seismic Design Organized by Nicolas Luco, Sanaz Rezaeian, Vitor Silva, Paolo Bazzurro

MS-20: Stochastic Earthquake Ground Motion Simulation, Validation, and Engineering Applications Organized by Sanaz Rezaeian, Nicolas Luco, Mayssa Dabaghi

MS-21: Advances and Outlooks in Seismic Risk Analysis Organized by Salvatore Sessa, Katerina Konakli

MS-22: Probabilistic Aspects of System Identification and Health Monitoring Organized by Siu-Kui Au, Francisco Alejandro Diaz De la O, Costas Papadimitriou

MS-23: Robust, Performance-based and Reliability-based Optimization Under Uncertainty Organized by André T. Beck, Hector Jensen, Michael Beer, Alaa Chateauneuf

MS-24: Advanced Simulation Methods for Probabilistic Analysis of Complex Engineering Problems Organized by Edoardo Patelli, Kostantin Zuev, Siu-Kui Au, Enrico Zio

MS-25: Recent Developments in Reliability and Cost Prediction of Building Inventories and Civil Infrastructure Systems Organized by Naiyu Wang, Bruce R. Ellingwood

MS-26: Value of Information in Civil Engineering Organized by Michael H. Faber, Marc Maes, Jochen Köhler, Sebastian Thöns

MS-27: Life Cycle Based Design and Optimization of Structural Systems under Uncertainty Organized by Fabio Biondini and Dan M. Frangopol

MS-28: Predicting and Adapting to Climate Change Organised by Alan O’Connor, Mark Stewart, Xiaoming Wang, Dimitri Val, Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga

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Session Schedule  

MONDAY, July 13

Room: Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific Bayside

Morning: GS-1-A MS-4-A MS-11-A MS-9-A GS-13 MS-23-A MS-15-A

Early afternoon: GS-1-B MS-4-B MS-11-B MS-9-B MS-14 MS-23-B MS-15-B

Late afternoon: MS-17 GS-3 MS-11-C MS-9-C GS-21 MS-23-C MS-3 MS-5

TUESDAY, July 14

Room: Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific Bayside

Morning: MS-1-A MS-27-A GS-12 MS-9-D MS-20-A MS-6-A MS-15-C

Early afternoon: MS-1-B MS-27-B MS-28-A GS-8/9 MS-25-A MS-24 MS-20-B MS-6-B

Late afternoon: MS-1-C MS-19 MS-28-B GS-25 MS-25-B GS-26 GS-7

WEDNESDAY, July 15

Room: Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific Morning: MS-13-A GS-18/20 MS-12-A GS-17-A GS-10 GS-24 MS-10 Early afternoon: MS-13-B GS-15 MS-12-B GS-17-B GS-23 MS-26-A MS-16-A Late afternoon: MS-13-C MS-21 GS-5 MS-22 GS-19 MS-26-B MS-16-B

On subsequent pages an asterisk (*) identifies the presenting author

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Conference Level Floor Plan

16

Upper Conference Level Floor Plan

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Monday Morning (10:30am – 12noon) Room Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific

Session GS-1-A: Probabilistic Models

MS-4-A: Risk Management of Natural

Hazards

MS-11-A: Risk and Resilience Analysis of Infrastructure Systems

MS-9-A: Surrogate Models for Uncertainty

Quantification, Reliability Analysis and Robust

Design, Polynomial Chaos I

GS-13: Damage and Deterioration

MS-23-A: Robust, Performance-based and

Reliability-based Optimization Under

Uncertainty

MS-15-A: Reliability of Geotechnical Structures, sponsored by ISSMGE TC304 and GI-RAM

Chairs S. Madanat, C. Caprani M. Bründl, O. Špačková, R. Corotis

P. Franchin, A. Lupoi B. Sudret E. Bastidas-Arteaga, Y. Huang

A.T. Beck, H. Jensen, Beer, Chateauneuf

K.K. Phoon, G.A. Fenton, J. Ching

10:30 297-Inter-relationship between Physical-

Chemical Processes and Extreme Value Modelling

Melchers*

122-Assessing and Managing Natural Risks at

the Panama Canal Alfaro*, Baecher, Guerra,

Patev

106-Risk, Resilience, and Sustainability Assessment of Infrastructure Systems in a Life-Cycle Context

Considering Uncertainties Dong*, Frangopol

501-Data-Driven Polynomial Chaos Basis

Estimation Spiridonakos*, Chatzi

428-The Continuous Wavelet Transform as a Stochastic Process for

Damage Detection Balafas*, Rajagopal,

Kiremidjian

134-Design of Floor Isolation Systems Through

Multi-objective Criteria for Seismic Risk

Performance Gidaris*, Taflanidis,

Lopez-Garcia, Mavroeidis

504-Reliability-Based Geotechnical Design:

Towards a Unified Theory Fenton*, Naghibi,

Griffiths

10:48 180-Prediction of Water Mains Failure - A

Bayesian Approach Kabir*, Tesfamariam,

Sadiq

161-The Effect of Under-reporting of Non-fatal Involvements in Snow

Avalanches on Vulnerability

Jamieson*, Jones

163-Vulnerability Importance Measures

Toward Resilience-Based Network Design

Barker, Nicholson*, Ramirez-Marquez

187-Polynomial Chaos Expansions for Damped

Oscillators Mai*, Sudret

318-Life-cycle Robustness:

Quantification and Challenges Wendner*,

Tamparopoulos, Bergmeister

151-Optimization of Non-linear Truss Considering

Expected Consequences of Failure

Pedrosa, Beck*

461-Effects of Spatial Soil Heterogeneities on

Structural Behavior of a Steel Sheet Pile

Yáñez-Godoy*, Elachachi

11:06 356-Dimension Reduction Methods for Reliability

Problems Breitung*

263-Quantifying the Effect of Early Warning

Systems on Natural Hazard Risk

Sättele, Bründl, Straub

212-Identifying the Needs and Future Directions of

Seismic Hazard for Probabilistic Infrastructure

Risk Analysis Weatherill*, Pagani

244-Time-Variant Reliability Analysis using

Polynomial Chaos Expansion

Hawchar, El-Soueidy*, Schoefs

415-A Unified Formalism For Modeling And

Reliability Estimation of Degrading Systems

Riascos-Ochoa*, Sánchez-Silva, Klutke

215-Risk Optimization of Trusses Using a New Gradient Estimation

Method Gomes*

532-On the Use of Spatially Averaged Shear Strength for the Bearing Capacity of a Shallow

Foundation Ching*, Hu, Phoon

11:24 484-Hierarchical Modeling of Systems with

Similar Components Memarzadeh, Pozzi*,

Kolter

364-Risk-based Optimization of Adaptable

Protection Measures against Natural Hazards

Spackova*, Dittes, Straub

237-Stochastic Modeling of Recovery from Seismic

Shocks Iervolino*, Giorgio

159-Low-rank Tensor Approximations for Reliability Analysis

Konakli*, Sudret

597-Reliability of Corroded Pipelines

Accounting for System Effects

Leira*, Næss, Brandrud Næss

275-Topology Optimization of Linear

Structural System Under Stationary Stochastic

Excitation Zhu, Yang, Shields*,

Guest

291-Subset Simulation-based Random Finite

Element Method for Slope Reliability Analysis and

Risk Assessment Li*, Xiao, Cao, Zhou

11:42 154-Improved Probability Distribution Models for

Seismic Fragility Assessment

Qin*, Mackie, Stojadinovic

442-Uncertainty Propagation in Seismic

Reliability Evaluation of Aging Transportation

Networks Rokneddin, Ghosh,

Duenas-Osorio, Padgett, (Presented by Kameshwar)

654-Evaluation of Structural Reliability for

Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to

Corrosion Carrillo-Bueno*, Ruiz,

Tolentino

359-Approximating Sensitivity of Failure

Probability in Reliability-Based Design Optimization

Liu*, Paulino, Gardoni

143-Determination of Soil Property Characteristic Values from Standard

Penetration Tests Wang, Zhao*, Cao

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Monday Early Afternoon (1:30pm – 3pm) Room Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific

Session GS-1-B: Probabilistic Models

MS-4-B: Risk Management of Natural

Hazards

MS-11-B: Risk and Resilience Analysis of Infrastructure Systems

MS-9-B: Surrogate Models for Uncertainty

Quant., Reliability Analysis and Robust

Design, Poly. Chaos II

MS-14: Reliability and Risk Assessment of

Pipelines

MS-23-B: Robust, Performance-based and

Reliability-based Optimization Under

Uncertainty

MS-15-B: Reliability of Geotechnical Structures, sponsored by ISSMGE TC304 and GI-RAM

Chairs H.P. Hong, T. Lin M. Bründl, O. Špačková, R. Corotis

P. Franchin, A. Lupoi L. Graham-Brady M.R. Dann, M.A. Maes A.T. Beck, H. Jensen, M. Beer, A. Chateauneuf

K.K. Phoon, G.A. Fenton, J. Ching

1:30 575-Pedestrian Bridges Monitoring Data for

Stochastic Modelling of Human-induced Loads

Casciati, Casciati, Faravelli*

368-Flood Risk and Economically Optimal

Safety Targets for Coastal Flood Defense Systems

Dupuits*, Schweckendiek

276-Probabilistic Demand and Supply Resilience

Model for Electric Power Supply System under

Seismic Hazard Sun*, Didier, Delé,

Stojadinovic

209-Compressive Polynomial Chaos

Expansion for Multi Dimensional Model Maps

Marelli, Sudret*

160-Estimating Event Probabilities using Zero

Failure Data Breitung, Maes*

464-Risk Measures in Engineering Design under

Uncertainty Rockafellar, Royset*

590-Variability of Allowable Bearing

Capacity of Soft Soil Stabilized by End-bearing

Deep Mixed Columns Zhang, Chen*, Huang

1:48 557-Nanomechanics Based Theory of Size

Effect on Strength, Lifetime and Residual

Strength Distributions of Quasibrittle Failure: A

Review Salviato*, Kirane, Bazant

558-Using Random Simulation of Hurricane Tracks for Risk Analysis

Garrè*, Dudek

309-Prob. Assessment of Increased Flooding

Vulnerability in Christchurch City after the

Canterbury 2010-2011 Earthquake Sequence

Cavalieri*, Franchin, Ko, Giovinazzi, Hart

116-Propagation of Uncertainties Modelled by Parametric p-boxes using Sparse Polynomial Chaos

Expansions Schöbi*, Sudret

172-Comparative Studies on Assessment of Corrosion Rates in Pipelines as Semi-

Probabilistic and Fully Stochastic Values

Opeyemi*, Patelli, Beer, Timashev

465-The SL-AVV Approach to System Level Reliability-Based Design

Optimization of Large Uncertain and Stochastic

Dynamic Systems Spence*

634-Geotechnical Reliability-based Designs

and Links with LRFD Low*, Phoon

2:06 656-On a Newly Developed Estimator for More Accurate Modeling

with an Application to Civil Engineering

Habibullah*, Shan-E-Fatima

444-A Bayesian Network Approach to Coastal

Storm Impact Modeling Jäger*, Heijer, Bolle,

Hanea

343-Integrated Multi-Hazard Framework for the

Fragility Analysis of Roadway Bridges Gehl*, D’Ayala

612-Efficient Stochastic Simulation of Dynamic Brittle Strength Using a Random Perturbation-based Micromechanics

Model Graham-Brady*, Liu

653-Time-dependent Reliability Assessment for Corroding Pipelines Based

on Imperfect Inspection Data

Zhang*, Kariyawasam, Zhou

495-Topology Optimization of Structures under Constraints on First

Passage Probability Chun*, Song, Paulino

249-Model Uncertainty for the Capacity of Strip

Footings under Negative and General Combined

Loading Phoon*, Tang

2:24 384-The Role of Fiber Volume Fraction in Tensile Strength of Fibrous Composites Rypl*, Vorechovsky,

Chudoba

616-Cost-Benefit Assessment of Different

Storm Mitigation Techniques for Residential Buildings using the PBHE

Framework Unnikrishnan, Barbato*

344-Development of Empirical Vulnerability

Curves for Electrical Supply Systems Subjected

to Wind Hazard Dunn*, Wilkinson, Galasso, Manning,

Alderson

252-Population-based Approach to Estimate Corrosion Growth in

Pipelines Dann*, Maes

526-Probabilistic Performance-based

Optimum Seismic Design with Application to the California High-Speed Rail Prototype Bridge

Li, Conte*

574-Effect of Correlation Structure Model on

Geotechnical Reliability-based Serviceability Limit

State Simulations Huffman, Stuedlein*

2:42 238-Economic Optimization

Considerations in South African Dam

Rehabilitations Viljoen, Reynolds

(Presented by Botha)

251-Bayesian Approach to Estimate Corrosion

Frowth From a Limited Set of Matched Features

Dann*, Huyse

429-Probabilistic Capacity Assessment of a

Prestressed Concrete Pile in a Corrosive Marine

Environment Schmuhl, Shafieezadeh,

Hur*

19

Monday Late Afternoon (3:30pm – 5pm) Rm Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific Bayside Ses MS-17: Comm.

Risk Under High Uncert.: Dev. Cross-discipl. Knowledge

GS-3: Reliability Methods

MS-11-C: Risk and Resilience Analysis of Infrastructure Systems

MS-9-C: Surrogate Models for Uncert. Quantification, Rel. Analysis and Robust

Design, Kriging I

GS-21: Maintenance and Inspection

MS-23-C: Robust, Performance-based and Reliability-based Opt.

Under Uncertainty

MS-3: Taming the Comp. Complexity of

Struct. and Infras. Performance

Assessment Metrics

MS-5: Probabilistic Risk Assessment for

Rainfall-induced Phenomena

Chair Alison, Mythen, Beer, Corotis

R. Melchers, D. Rosowsky

P. Franchin, A. Lupoi B. Gaspar A. Yuan, R. Caspeele Beck, Jensen, Beer, Chateauneuf

L. Duenas-Osorio, J. Song

Jalayer, Galasso, Aronica, Parisi

3:30 107-Communicating Risk in Major Incidents: the

Public’s Perception Swan*, Waring,

Alison, Beer

536-Application of the Multiplicative

Dimensional Reduction Method to a

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Problem

Raimbault*, Walbridge, Pandey

388-Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Infrastructure

Networks Subjected to Hurricanes

Scherb*, Garrè, Straub

220-A Sampling-based RBDO Algorithm with Local Refinement and

Efficient Gradient Estimation

Lacaze*, Missoum, Brevault, Balesdent

247-A Condition-based Maint. Policy

based on a Prob. Meta-model for

Chloride Corrosion El Hajj*, Castanier, Schoefs, Bastidas-

Arteaga, Yeung

537-A Framework for Performance-Based

Optimization of Structural Robustness Marjanishvili*, Katz

178-Local Measures of Disruption for

Quantifying Seismic Risk and Reliability

of Complex Networks Baker*, Miller,

Markhvida

317-Comparing Flood Mitigation Strategies for Non-engineered Masonry Structures

using DCFD Carozza*, Jalayer, De Risi, Manfredi, Mbuya

3:48 113-Likelihood of Progressive Collapse of

Buildings from Terrorist Attacks Stewart*, Grant

358-Targeted Random Sampling for Time-invariant Reliability

Analysis Shields*, Sundar

483-A Time-Dep. Seismic Resilience

Analysis Approach for Networked Lifelines Paredes*, Dueñas-

Osorio

529-Adaptive Kriging Reliability-based Design Opt. of an Automotive Body Structure under

Crashworthiness Constraints

Moustapha*, Sudret, Bourinet, Guillaume

272-Incorporating Network

Considerations into Pavement

Management Systems Medury*, Madanat

538-Reliability-based Design of Tuned Mass-Damper-Inerter (TMDI) Equipped Multi-storey Frame Buildings under

Seismic Excitation Giaralis*, Taflanidis

184-Efficient Post-hazard Probabilistic

Flow Analysis of Water Pipe Networks

Kang*, Lee

324-Return Period Determ. for Several Extreme Rainfall-

induced Events using the IDF Relation

Obtained via Copulas Bezak*, Šraj, Brilly,

Mikoš 4:06 137-A Clustering

Approach to Identification of Seismic Building

Damage Patterns … Elwood, Corotis*

389-Estimation of the Failure Probability of a Floating Wind Turbine under Environmental

Load Murangira, Munoz Zuniga*, Perdrizet

579- Opt. Evacuation Scenarios for Seismic Emergency Mngmnt. Zanini*, Pellegrino,

Rossi, Gastaldi, Modena

257-Adaptive Surrogate Model with Active

Refinement Combining Kriging and a Trust Region

Method Gaspar*, Teixeira, Guedes

Soares

332-Probability of Detection of Potential

Mapping and its Impact on Service

Life Prediction Kessler*, Gehlen

594-Efficient Optimal Design-Under-

Uncertainty of Passive Structural Control

Devices De, Wojtkiewicz*,

Johnson

497-Network Reliability Analysis

for Cluster Connectivity Using

AdaBoost Stern*, Song, Work

354-Fragility of Reinforced Concrete Framed Structures to Flow-type Landslides

Parisi*, Sabella, Galasso

4:24 190-Learning from Accidents: Analysis and Representation of Human Errors in

Multi-attribute Events

Moura*, Beer, Lewis, Patelli

598-Nonlinear Combination of

Multiple Environmental Design Parameters Based on FORM

Algorithms Leira*

638-A Bayesian Network Model to

Assess Seismic Risk of Reinforced

Concrete Girder Bridges

Franchin*, Lupoi, Noto, Tesfamariam

152-Performance of Surrogate Modelling

Techniques in Structural Reliability

Kroetz, Beck*

407-Life-cycle Maintenance,

Monitoring, and Inspection Opt. for

Ship Structures under Uncertainty

Soliman, Frangopol*, Mondoro

615-Reliability-based Maintenance

Optimization of Pipelines Considering

Space-variant Corrosion Rate

Sahraoui, Chateauneuf*, Khelif

379-Comput. Complexity of Probabilistic

Interdependent Network Design

Problems González*, Dueñas-

Osorio, Sánchez-Silva, Medaglia

397-A Compendium of Existing Vulnerability

and Fragility Relationships for

Flood: Preliminary Results

Pregnolato*, Galasso, Parisi

4:42 565-Risk Perception in Civil

Engineering Applications

Micic

648- Audze-Eglajs Criterion for Space-

filling Designs Vořechovský*, Eliáš

182-Reproducing Kernel-Based Support Vector

Machine for Struct. Rel. Analysis Lu*, Li

361-Characterization of Measurement

Uncertainties in Crack Profiles Assessed by In-Line Inspection

Tools Koduru*, Lu, Skow

635-Vulnerability Analysis of

Interdependent Infrastructure

Systems Galvan*, Agarwal

398- Risk Of Transport Infrastructure

Disruption From Extreme Rainfall

Pregnolato*, Ford, Dawson

5pm: 453-Impt. Sampling in the

Evaluation and Opt. of Buffered Failure Prob. Harajli*, Rockafellar,

Royset

20

Tuesday Morning (10:30am – 12noon) Room Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific

Session MS-1-A: Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs for Engineering

Risk Analysis

MS-27-A: Life Cycle Based Design and

Optimization of Structural Systems under

Uncertainty

GS-12: Hazard Analysis MS-9-D: Surrogate Models for Uncertainty

Quantification, Reliability Analysis and Robust Design,

Kriging II

MS-20-A: Stochastic Earthquake Ground Motion Simulation, Validation, and Engineering Applications

MS-6-A: Structural Reliability and

Probabilistic Modelling of Timber

MS-15-C: Reliability of Geotechnical

Structures, sponsored by ISSMGE TC304

and GI-RAM Chairs Straub, Pozzi, Goulet, Der

Kiureghian F. Biondini, D.M.

Frangopol A. Liel, G. Weatherill A. Beck S. Rezaeian, N. Luco, M.

Dabaghi J. Kohler K.K. Phoon, G.A.

Fenton, J. Ching 10:30 528-Parameter

Identification In Chloride Ingress From Accelerated

Test Using Bayesian Network

Tran, Bastidas-Arteaga*, Bonnet, Schoefs

214-Bayesian Updated Time-Dependent Chloride-Induced

Corrosion Assessment Using Redundancy

Factors Botte*, Caspeele, Taerwe

323-A Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Methodology Accounting for Cascading

Hazard Events Ní Choine, O’Connor,

Gehl, D’Ayala, García-Fernández, Jiménez, Gavin, Van Gelder,

Salceda, Power*

223-Fusing Simulation Results from Multifidelity

Aero-servo-elastic Simulators - Application to

Extreme Loads on Wind Turbine

Abdallah*, Sudret, Lataniotis, Sørensen,

Natarajan

127-Tuning of Record-based Stochastic Ground

Motion Models for Hazard-compatibility and Applications to Seismic

Risk Assessment Vetter, Taflanidis*,

Mavroeidis

363-Joint Earthquake-Snow Hazard

Characterization and Fragility Analysis of

Wood-frame Structures Wang, Rosowsky*

156-Levee Reliability Analysis Considering

Different Failure Mechanisms – A Case

Study (Gueishan Levee) in Southern

Taiwan Huang*, Yu

10:48 125-Prediction of Soil Corrosivity Index: A

Bayesian Belief Network Approach

Demissie*, Tesfamariam, Sadiq

108-Role of Uncertainty in Life-Cycle Design of

Concrete Structures Biondini*, Frangopol

387-Application of Region of Influence Approach to Estimate Extreme Snow Load for a Northeastern

Province in China Mo*, Fan, Hong

573-Building Probability of Detection Curves via

Metamodels Browne*, Le Gratiet, Blatman, Cordeiro,

Goursaud, Iooss, Maurice

162-A Fully Parametric Non-stationary Spectral-based Stochastic Ground

Motion Model Vlachos*, Deodatis, Papakonstantinou

265-Comparison of Two Reliability Assessment

Methods for the Seismic Performance of Timber Steel Hybrid Structures

Lam*, Li, He, Li

624-An Efficient Method to Compute the

Failure Probability Gong*, Juang, Martin,

Zhang

11:06 405-Operational Modal Analysis using Variational

Bayes Li*, Der Kiureghian

205-Ethical Discounting for Intergenerational Life-

cycle Risk Assessment Lee*, Ellingwood

440-An Improved Approach for Aftershock

Hazard Assessment Muderrisoğlu*, Yazgan

145-Computational Simulation of Hydraulic

Fracturing Nonlinear Dynamics using Gaussian

Processes Surrogates Zio, Rochinha*

185-Stochastic Ground Motion Simulation for Crustal Earthquakes in

Japan Itoi*

266-Seismic Reliability Analyses of Timber-Steel-

Hybrid System Zhang*, Fairhurst, Tannert

475-Diagnosis of Earth-fill Dams by

Synthesized Approach of Sounding and

Surface Wave Method Nishimura*, Shibata,

Shuku 11:24 400-Bayesian Networks

for Model Updating and Inspection Support of

Marine Structures Subject to Fatigue

Groden*, Collette

123-Life-cycle System Performance of Bridges:

A Robustness-based Approach

Cavaco, Casas*, Neves

520-Reliability-based Seismic Hazard Analysis

Rahimi, Mahsuli*, Bakhshi

439-Use of Kriging to Surrogate Finite Element

Models of Bonded Double Cantilever Beams Sessa*, Valoroso

436-Simulation of Earthquake Ground

Motions in The Eastern U.S. Using Physics-based and Stochastic Approaches Rezaeian*, Hartzell, Sun,

Mendoza

370-Extension of Data Sets for a more Reliable

Prediction of the Fire Resistance of Finger Joint

Connections Fink*, Klippel, Frangi

102-Bayesian Methods and Liquefaction

Christian*, Baecher

11:42 155-Enhanced Bayesian Networks approach to

Risk Assessment of Spent Fuel Ponds

Tolo*, Patelli, Beer, Broggi

365-Applications of Dynamic Trees to

Sensitivity Analysis Becker*

580-Optimal Design of New Deteriorating Timber

Comp. under Climate Variations

Bastidas-Arteaga, Aoues*, Chateauneuf

21

Tuesday Early Afternoon (1:30pm – 3pm) Room Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific Bayside

Session MS-1-B: Bayesian Networks and

Decision Graphs for Engineering Risk

Analysis

MS-27-B: Life Cycle Based Design and Optimization of

Structural Systems under Uncertainty

MS-28-A: Predicting and Adapting to Climate

Change

GS-8/GS-9: Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis / Sensitivity Analysis

MS-25-A: Reliability and Cost Prediction of

Building Inventories and Civil Infrast. Systems

MS-24: Advanced Simulation Methods

for Probabilistic Analysis of Complex

Engrg Problems

MS-20-B: Stochastic Earthquake Ground Motion Simulation,

Validation, and Engineering Applications

MS-6-B: Structural Reliability and Probabilistic

Modelling of Timber

Chairs Straub, Pozzi, Goulet, Der Kiureghian

F. Biondini, D.M. Frangopol

O’Connor, Stewart, Wang, Val, Bastidas-

Arteaga

M. Vořechovský, M. Barbato

N. Wang, B.R. Ellingwood

E. Patelli, K. Zuev, S.-K. Au, E. Zio

S. Rezaeian, N. Luco, M. Dabaghi

G. Fink

1:30 434-Simulation-Based Analysis of

Reconfigurable System of System Network

Topologies for Resilience Using

Bayesian Networks Francis*

259-Optimization of Inspection Plans for

Structures Submitted to Non-stationary

Stochastic Degradation Processes

Decatoire*, Elachachi, Yalamas, Schoefs

271-Implications of Hurricane-Sea Surface

Temperature Relationship

Mudd, Letchford, Rosowsky*

200-Finite Element Reliability Analysis of Structures using the Dimensional

Reduction Method Balomenos*,

Pandey

651-A Framework to Develop Community

Resilience Performance Goals and Assessment Metrics for Decision

Making McAllister*

139-Simulation of Strongly Non-

Gaussian and Non-stationary Stochastic

Processes by Karhunen-Loeve

Expansion Kim*, Shields

402-Validation of the Use of Synthetic Near-Fault Ground Motions

to Estimate the Response of a Concrete

Building Dabaghi*, Galanis, Der

Kiureghian, Moehle

210-Numerical Description of Size

and Load Configuration Effects in Glulam Structures

Frese*, Blass

1:48 491-Prob. Modeling of System Deterioration with Inspection and

Monitoring Data using Bayesian Networks

Luque*, Straub

230-Travel Time Reliability Based Bridge Network Maintenance

Optimization under Budget Constraint

Zhang, Cao, Wang*

408-Statistical Investigation of

Extreme Weather Conditions

Proske*

133-Stochastic Multi-scale Finite Element Analysis

for Laminated Composite Plates Zhou*, Gosling

142-Preliminary Extension of FORM for Combined Seismic and

Wind Hazard Loss Estimation for a

Portfolio of Buildings Corotis*, Bonstrom

245-Efficient Monte Carlo Algorithm for Rare Failure Event

Simulation Patelli*, Au

270-Generation of Synthetic

Accelerograms Compatible with a Set

of Design Specifications Batou*, Soize

294-Duration-of-Load Effect on the Rolling

Shear Strength of CLT: Analysis and

DOL Strength Adjustment Factor

Li, Lam* 2:06 541-Sensor Network

Optimization using Bayesian Networks,

Decision Graphs, and Value of Information

Malings*, Pozzi

502-Prediction of Creep and Shrinkage based on Gamma Process Models

Strauss*, Wendner, Vidovic, Zambon,

Frangopol

254-Reliability of Extreme Wave

Prediction Methods Barker, Murphy,

Pakrashi*

357-Sensitivity Analysis of Fluid-

Structure Interaction using

the PFEM Zhu, Scott*

179-Multi-Objective Community-Level

Seismic Retrofit Opt. for Resiliency using Engineering and Socioeconomic

Variables Jennings*, van de Lindt,

Peek

255-Rare Event Simulation: A Point

Process Interpretation with Application in

Probability and Quantile Estimation

Walter, Defaux*

445-Sensitivity of Ground Motion

Simulation Validation Criteria to Filtering

Khoshnevis, Taborda*

218-Serial Correlation of Withdrawal Properties from

Axially-Loaded Self-Tapping Screws

Brandner*, Bratulic, Ringhofer

2:24 489-A Data Fusion Probabilistic Model for

Hurricane-Induced Outages in Electric

Power Grids Mensah*, Dueñas-

Osorio

394-Probabilistic Model for Ageing Masonry

Walls Micic, Asenov*

114-Cost-Effective Design and

Maintenance of Timber Power Distribution Poles in a Changing

Climate Ryan*, Stewart, Spencer

279-Random Field Modelling for the Prediction of Wall

Thickness of Nuclear Pipes…

Adegbola*, Yuan, Wang

225-Disaggregating Community Resilience Objectives to Achieve building Performance

Goals Wang*, Ellingwood

456-Resource Allocation and

Uncertainty when Modeling

Infrastructure Networks as Socio-technical Systems Gómez*, Sánchez-

Silva, Dueñas-Osorio

533-Response of Buried Pipes Taking into

Account Seismic and Soil Spatial Variabilities

Elachachi*, Yanez-Godoy

264-Impact of Growth Characteristics on the Fracture Perpendicular to the Grain of Timber

Jockwer*, Serrano, Gustafsson, Steiger

2:42 207-Risk-based Decision Making for

Deterioration Processes Using

POMDP Nielsen*, Sørensen

274-Quantification of Resilience

Improvements for Critical Facilities

through Advanced Technologies

Cimellaro*, Terzic, Mahin

550-Conditional Simulation of Spatially Variable Motions on 2D

Grid Ancheta*, Stewart

349-Aspects of Code-based Design of

Timber Structures Köhler*, Fink

22

Tuesday Late Afternoon (3:30pm – 5pm) Room Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific

Session MS-1-C: Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs for Engineering

Risk Analysis

GS-25: Code Calibration MS-28-B: Predicting and Adapting to Climate Change

MS-19: Risk-targeted Response Spectra for

Seismic Design

MS-25-B: Recent Developments in Reliability

and Cost Prediction of Building Inventories and

Civil Infrastructure Systems

GS-26: Applications GS-7: Uncertainty Analysis

Chairs Straub, Pozzi, Goulet, Der Kiureghian

W. Pang, J. Casas O’Connor, Stewart, Wang, Val, Bastidas-Arteaga

N. Luco, S. Rezaeian, V. Silva, P. Bazzurro

N. Wang, B.R. Ellingwood B.K. Low, A. Medury T. Takada, G. Baecher

3:30 121-The Assessment of the Reliability of Potentially Deteriorated Reinforced Concrete Elements with

Bayesian Networks Hackl*, Kohler

231-Reliability-based Calibration of Partial

Safety Factors for Wave Energy Converters Ambühl*, Kramer,

Sørensen

458-Addressing Uncertainty in Ensemble Sea-Level Rise

Predictions Thomas*, Lin

583-Advances on Risk-targeted Hazard Estimation

within the European Context

Silva*, Crowley, Bazzurro

399-A Case-study on Scenario-based Probabilistic Seismic Loss Assessment for

a Portfolio of Bridges Miano, Jalayer*, De Risi,

Prota, Manfredi

472-Strategies for Separation of Aleatory and

Epistemic Uncertainties Koduru*

390-Uncert. Quant. of Heavy Gas

Release Over a Barrier

Shoeibi Omrani*, O'Mahoney, Mack,

Witteveen 3:48 269-Bayesian Networks in

Levee System Reliability Roscoe*, Hanea

246-Defining a Braking Probability to Estimate

Extreme Braking Forces on Road Bridges Martins*, Fénart,

Feltrin, Dumont, Beyer

606-Reliability Based Design Optimization of Insulation

Systems Considering Climate Change and Workmanship

Uncertainties Aïssani*, Chateauneuf,

Fontaine

584-Investigation of Structural Fragility for Risk-targeted Hazard

Assessment Martins*, Silva, Crowley,

Bazzurro, Marques

425-Integrated Spatial Community Resilience Decision Tool Unifying

Social Vulnerability Indices and Relative Sea-Level Rise

Predictions Francis*, Esfandiary

433-Shake Table Tests of Stochastic Optimal

Polynomial Control of Two Span Bridge

Equipped with MR Dampers

El-Khoury*, Kim, Shafieezadeh, Hur, Heo

622-Influence on Structural Reliability

of Uncertainty in Estimated Extreme

Values of Load-Effects

Reid*, Naess

4:06 460-Compression and Inference Algorithms for

Bayesian Network Modeling of Infrastructure

Systems Tien*, Der Kiureghian

171-On Standardization of the Reliability Basis

of Structural Design Holicky*, Retief,

Diamantidis, Viljoen

158-Dynamic Restricted Equilibrium Model to

Determine Statistically the Resilience of a Traffic

Network to Extreme Weather Events

Nogal*, Martinez-Pastor, O'Connor, Caulfield

637-Development of Earthquake Risk-Targeted

Ground Motions for Indonesian Eq. Resistance Building Code SNI 1726-

2012 Sengara*, Irsyam, Sidi,

Mulia, Asrurifak, Hutabarat

443-Efficient Computational Models for the Optimal

Representation of Correlated Regional Hazard

Christou*, Bocchini

655-Evaluation of Decisions to Rehabilitate South African Dams in terms of the ANCOLD ALARP Criterion and

SWTP for Human Safety Viljoen, Reynolds

(Presented by Botha)

646-Small-sample Probabilistic

Simulation Software Tool FReET

Novak*, Vořechovský

4:24 313-Discretization of Structural Reliability

Problems: An Application to Runway Overrun

Zwirglmaier*, Straub

621-Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Fatigue Design of Steel

Bridges D'Angelo*, Faber,

Nussbaumer

338-Quantifying the Impact of Critical Infrastructure Failure due to Extreme

Weather Events OBrien, Hajializadeh,

Power*

404-Modifications to Risk-Targeted Seismic Design Maps for Subduction and

Near-Fault Hazards Liel*, Luco, Raghunandan,

Champion

650-Stochastic Renewal Process Models for Life Cycle Cost and Utility

Analysis Pandey*, Cheng, Wang

341-Application of Expert Judgment to the

Quantification of a Damage Scale for RC

Buildings Exposed to Fire Ioannou*, Rush, Bisby,

Aspinall, Rossetto

4:42 435-BN to Quantify Transition Rates in

Degradation Modeling: Application to a Set of

Steel Bridges in the Netherlands

Kosgodagan*, Morales-Napoles, Maljaars, Yeung,

Castanier

522-Determination of Target Safety for

Structures Holicky*, Diamantidis,

Sykora

419-A Markov Regime-Switching Framework

Application for Describing El Niño Southern Oscillation

Patterns Cárdenas Gallo*, Sánchez-Silva, Akhavan-Tabatabaei,

Bastidas-Arteaga

391-Reliability-Based Snow Load Maps for

Building Design DeBock, Liel*, Harris,

Torrents

119-Reliability-Based Progressive Collapse and Redundancy Analysis of

Suspension Bridges Yang*, Ghosn

5pm: 268-Env. Contours for Determination of

Seismic Design Response Spectra

Loth, Baker*

23

Wednesday Morning (10:30am – 12noon) Room Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific

Session MS-13-A: Stochastic Dynamics and Simulation-

based Techniques for Performance-based

Earthquake Engineering

GS-18/GS-20: Risk-based Optimization / Decision-

making

MS-12-A: Bayesian Inference in Engineering:

New Methods and Algorithms

GS-17-A: Wind Engineering

GS-10: Random Vibrations and Stochastic

Processes

GS-24: Special Structures

MS-10: Probabilistic Modeling and Impact

Assessment of Cascading Geophysical Hazards

Chairs Giaralis, Kougioumtzoglou, Taflanidis, Vamvatsikos

M. Sanchez-Silva, M. Shields

F.A. Diaz De la O, E. Patelli, S.-K. Au, J.L.

Beck

J.P. Pinelli M. Grigoriu, B. Leira Y. Aoues, W. Gomes K. Goda, T. Rossetto

10:30 507-Energy-based Seismic Collapse Risk Assessment

of Structures Deniz, Song*, Hajjar

618-Protocols for Communication and Governance of Risks

Vrouwenvelder*, Lind, Faber

103-Seismic Hazard Analysis with the

Bayesian Approach Wang*

124-Variability of Time Independent Wind Load

Components Botha*, Retief, Viljoen

331-Simulation of Narrowband Non-

Gaussian Processes Using Envelope Distribution

Tsuchida*, Kimura

221-Fragility Assessment of Above

Ground Petroleum Storage Tanks under

Storm Surge Kameshwar*, Padgett

148-Seismic Risk Assessment of Mega-thrust

Mw9-class Subduction Earthquakes and

Aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

Using Multi-variate Seismic Demand Models

Goda*, Tesfamariam 10:48 452-Illustrating a Bayesian

Approach to Seismic Collapse Risk Assessment

Gokkaya*, Baker, Deierlein

620-On the Regulation of Life Safety Risk

Faber*, Sørensen, Vrouwenvelder

194-Bayesian Assessment of the Compressive

Strength of Structural Masonry

Nagel*, Mojsilovic, Sudret

199-An Agent-based Framework for Modeling

the Effectiveness of Hurricane Mitigation

Incentives Pei, Pang*, Testik,

Ravichandran

437-A Constrained Nonlinear Stochastic Optimal Control for Dynamical Systems

El-Khoury*, Shafieezadeh

423-Vulnerability Analysis of

Transmission Towers subjected to Unbalanced

Ice Loads Rezaei*, Chouinard, Legeron, Langlois

192-Coupled Simulation of Ground Shaking and

Tsunami for Mega-thrust Subduction Earthquakes Goda*, De Risi, Rossetto

11:06 236-Age- and State-Dependent Seismic

Reliability of Structures Iervolino, Giorgio,

Chioccarelli*

111-A Reliability-Based Optimization Scheme for

Maintenance Management in Large-Scale Bridge

Networks Hu, Daganzo, Madanat*

396-Force Identification by Comparing Likelihood Function using Bayesian

Filtering Methods Radhika*

248-Fatigue Reliability of Casted Wind Turbine Components due to

Defects Mirzaei Rafsanjani*,

Sørensen

566-The Moment Equation Closure Method Revisited through the Use

of Complex Fractional Moments

Alotta, Bucher, Di Matteo, Di Paola, Pirrotta*

424-Life Cycle Cost-Benefit Evaluation of

Self-centering and Conventional

Concentrically Braced Frames

Dyanati, Huang*, Roke

197-Quantifying and Accounting for Aftershock

Hazard in Performance-Based Earthquake

Engineering van de Lindt*, Nazari, Li

11:24 146-Seismic Optimization of a Novel Tuned Sloshing

Damper for the Chilean Region based on Life-cycle

Cost Criteria Ruiz, Taflanidis, Lopez-

Garcia*

316-Optimization of Future Drinking Water

Pipe Renewal under Uncertainty

Large*, Tomasian, Elachachi, Le Gat, Renaud, Breysse

420-Uncertainty Management of Safety-

Critical Systems: A Solution to the Back-Propagation Problem

de Angelis*, Patelli, Beer

282-System Reliability of Suspension Bridges Considering Static

Divergence and Flutter Øiseth, Rønnquist*, Naess

642-Random Vibration of Arbitrarily Supported Single-span Beams Subject to Random

Moving Loads Caprani*

633-Stochastic Dynamic Analysis of a Marine Riser using the First-

Order Reliability Method

Alibrandi*, Koh

307-Towards Quantifying the Effect of Aftershocks in Seismic Risk Assessment

Jalayer*, Ebrahimian, Manfredi

11:42 157-Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamic analysis for

Performance-based Multi-objective Optimum Design

Considering Life Cycle Seismic Loss Estimation

Mitseas, Kougioumtzoglou, Beer, (Presented by Zhang)

373-Reducing Wind Turbine Load Simulation Uncertainties by Means of

a Constrained Gaussian Turbulence Field

Dimitrov*, Lazarov

330-Evaluating Desktop Methods for Assessing Liquefaction-Induced

Damage to Infrastructure for the Insurance Sector

Kongar*, Rossetto, Giovinazzi

24

Wednesday Early Afternoon (1:30pm – 3pm) Room Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific

Session MS-13-B: Stochastic Dynamics and Simulation-

based Techniques for Performance-based

Earthquake Engineering

GS-15: Earthquake Engineering

MS-12-B: Bayesian Inference in

Engineering: New Methods and Algorithms

GS-17-B: Wind Engineering

GS-23: Bridge Engineering

MS-26-A: Value of Information in Civil

Engineering

MS-16-A: Probability Density Evolution Theory

and Its Applications

Chairs A. Giaralis, I. Kougioumtzoglou, A.

Taflanidis, D. Vamvatsikos

A. Kiremidjian, F. De Luca F.A. Diaz De la O, E. Patelli, S.-K. Au, J.L.

Beck

A. Rønnquist, J.S. Nielsen

S. Kessler, R. De Risi M.H. Faber, M. Maes, J. Köhler, S. Thöns

J. Li, J. Chen, Y. Peng, P.D. Spanos

1:30 131-Structural System Response and Reliability

Analysis under Incomplete Earthquake

Records Comerford*, Jensen, Beer,

Mayorga, Kougioumtzoglou,

Kusanovic

147-Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of Real-Time

Hybrid Simulation of Structures with Degradation

Ryan, Chen*, Richardson

478-Sparse Bayesian Learning with Gibbs

Sampling for Structural Health Monitoring with

Noisy Incomplete Modal Data

Huang*, Beck

525-Application of the Box-Cox Power

Transformation in Extreme Value Analysis

of Wind Speed Hong*

226-Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for

Bridges Using System Reliability Analysis and

SHM-based Finite Element Model Updating

Lee*, Cho

135-Pre-posterior Optimization of Sequence

of Measurement and Intervention Actions under

Structural Reliability Constraint

Goulet*, Der Kiureghian, Li

128-An Approximate Approach for Assessing

the Reliability of a Stochastically Excited

Softening Duffing Oscillator Zhang*,

Kougioumtzoglou

1:48 588-Probabilistic Hazard Model of Inelastic

Oscillator based on Semi-theoretical Solutions of First Passage Problem

Mori*, Tahashima, Kojima, Ozaki

250-Development of Stochastic Heterogeneous

Slip Distribution Model for Simulation of Earthquake

Ground Motion Abe*, Sekimura, Itoi

494-A Dynamic Bayesian Network

Framework for Risk Assessment of Systems

Based on Sensor Measurements

Tien*, Pozzi, Der Kiureghian

636-Reliability Assessment of Wind

Turbines Sørensen*

239-Estimating Characteristic Bridge Traffic Load Effects

Using Bayesian Statistics Leahy, OBrien, Enright,

Power, (Presented by O'Connor)

188-Parameter Study on Optimal Sampling Planning

based on Value of Information

Yoshida*

256-A New Probabilistic Model of Fully Non-Stationary Ground

Motion and its Application

Liu*, Liu, Dan

2:06 514-A Stochastic Dynamics Approach for

Response Spectrum Analysis of Bilinear Systems using Time-dependent Equivalent

Linear Properties Giaralis*,

Kougioumtzoglou

321-Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunami for

Tsunami-resistant Design Choi*, Nishida, Itoi, Takada

576-Probabilistic Damage Identification of the Dowling Hall Footbridge through

Hierarchical Bayesian Model Updating

Behmanesh, Moaveni*

476-Analytical Damage Quantification Method

for Residential Developments Subjected

to Hurricane Wind Hazards

Grayson*, Pang

298-System Fragility Curves for a Long Multi-

Frame Bridge under Differential Support

Motions Jeon*, Shafieezadeh,

DesRoches

224-A Bayesian Change Point Model to Detect

Changes in Event Occurrence Rates, with Application to Induced

Seismicity Gupta*, Baker

459-A Random Field Representation Based on

Stochastic Harmonic Functions

Chen*, He, Li

2:24 517-A View of Seismic Robustness Based on

Uncertainty Vamvatsikos*

337-Shaking Table Experiment of Fault-Tolerant Seismic Vibration Control of a Building Based on Sensor

Reliability Tanaka, Kohiyama*

479-Material Parameter Estimation in

Distributed Plasticity FE Models Using the

Unscented Kalman Filter

Astroza, Ebrahimian, Conte*

372-Multivariate Modelling of Extreme Load Combinations for

Wind Turbines Dimitrov*

367-Time-Dependent Fatigue Reliability

Assessment of Ting Kau Bridge Based on Weigh-

In-Motion Data Zhang*, Au

243-Value of Information in Retrofitting of Flood

Defenses Schweckendiek*, Vrouwenvelder

521-Physically-based Seismic Reliability Evaluation of Water

Distribution Networks Liu*, Sun, Li

2:42 336-A Nonlinear Wavelet Density-based Importance Sampling for Reliability

Analysis Wang*, Dai

492-Probabilistic Analysis of Soil-Structure Interaction

Mirzaie, Mahsuli, Ghannad*

25

Wednesday Late Afternoon (3:30pm – 5pm) Room Nelson Denman Comox Gilford Barclay Beach Pacific

Session MS-13-C: Stochastic Dynamics and Simulation-

based Techniques for Performance-based

Earthquake Engineering

MS-21: Advances and Outlooks in Seismic Risk

Analysis

GS-5: System Reliability Analysis

MS-22: Probabilistic Aspects of System

Identification and Health Monitoring

GS-19: Risk Assessment and Management

MS-26-B: Value of Information in Civil

Engineering

MS-16-B: Probability Density Evolution Theory

and Its Applications

Chairs A. Giaralis, I. Kougioumtzoglou, A.

Taflanidis, D. Vamvatsikos

S. Sessa, K. Konakli J. Conte, J. van de Lindt S.-K. Au, I. Yoshida U. Alibrandi, JV Retief M.H. Faber, M. Maes, J. Köhler, S. Thöns

J. Li, J. Chen, Y. Peng, P.D. Spanos

3:30 581-Analytical Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

for a Class of Modern Low-Rise Steel Frames Kazantzi, Vamvatsikos*,

Porter

380-Influence of Failure Modes of RC Columns on Simplified Seismic Loss

Assessment De Luca*, Galasso

281-Reliability and Controllability of

Infrastructure Networks: Do They Match?

Li*, Dueñas-Osorio, Chen

455-Message-passing Sequential Detection of

Multiple Structural Damages

Liao*, Rajagopal

277-Probabilistic Treatment of Storm

Rotation and Wind-driven Rain Deposition in a

Hurricane Model Johnson*, Pinelli, Cocke

273-Value of Information on the Risk/Benefit of Infrastructrure under

Strong Winds in Mexico De Leon*, Lopez, Esteva

530-A Phase Space Reconstruction Method

for getting Instantaneous Probability Density

Function of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems

Jiang, Li* 3:48 639-Performance-Based

Seismic Analysis of Light SDoF Secondary

Substructures Kasinos*, Palmeri,

Lombardo

320-Spectral Shape Proxies and Simplified

Fragility Analysis of Mid-rise Reinforced Concrete

Buildings Minas*, Galasso,

Rossetto

314-Reliability Analysis of Systems Based on Survival Signature

Feng*, Patelli, Beer

202-A Comparison of Unscented and Extended

Kalman Filtering for Nonlinear System

Identification Al-Hussein*, Haldar

333-Pushover-Based Loss Estimation of Masonry

Buildings with Consideration of

Uncertainties Snoj*, Dolšek

605-Quantification of the Value of Structural Health

Monitoring Information for Fatigue Deteriorating

Structural Systems Thöns*, Schneider, Faber

544-A Two-step Density Estimation Method and Its

Applications Tao*, Li

4:06 450-Seismic Intensity Measures for Probabilistic

Demand Modeling of Rocking Rigid Components

Hur*, Shafieezadeh

258-Building Performance Loss After Damaging Earthquakes:

An Investigation Towards Reparability Decisions

Gaetani d'Aragona, Polese*, Elwood,

Baradaran Shoraka, Prota, Manfredi

353-Systems Reliability of Flow Control in Dam

Safety Komey*, Deng, Baecher,

Zielinski, Atkinson

261-Identification Uncertainty of Close Modes in Operational

Modal Analysis Zhu, Au*, Jones

426-Risk Management of Multi-State Multi-Component Bridge

Systems Using a Partially Observable Markov

Decision Process Shafieezadeh*, Fereshtehnejad

617-On the Value of SHM in the Context of Service

Life Integrity Management

Qin*, Thöns, Faber

578-Stochastic Optimal Control of MR Damped

Structures with Uncertain Parameters

Peng*, Yang, Li

4:24 577-Topology Optimization for Buildings in Seismic Zones within a

PBEE Framework Bobby, Spence*, Kareem

513-Fragility Functions for Pipeline in Liquefiable

Sand: A Case Study on the Groningen Gas

Network Miraglia*, Courage,

Meijers

493-Fragility Curves of Restoration Processes for

Resilience Analysis Barberis, Malavisi, Cimellaro*, Mahin

438-Application of a Scenario-Based

Assessment Framework for the Seismic Resilience

of Seaports Ivey Burden,

Shafieezadeh*

593-Dynamic Response and Reliability of Tunnel

under Earthquakes Yue*, Ang

4:42 (No last-day presentations at this time)

26

Author Index Paper numbers are boldface Abdallah, 223 Abe, 250 Adegbola, 279 Agarwal, 635 Aïssani, 606 Akhavan-Tabatabaei, 419 Al-Hussein, 202 Alderson, 344 Alfaro, 122 Alibrandi, 633 Alison, 107 Alotta, 566 Ambühl, 231 Ancheta, 550 Ang, 593 Aoues, 580 Asenov, 394 Aspinall, 341 Asrurifak, 637 Astroza, 479 Atkinson, 353 Au, F.T.K., 367 Au, S.-K., 245, 261 Baecher, 102, 122, 353 Baker, 178, 224, 268, 452 Bakhshi, 520 Balafas, 428 Balesdent, 220 Balomenos, 200 Baradaran Shoraka, 258 Barbato, 616 Barberis, 493 Bari, 603

Barker, A., 254 Barker, K., 163 Bastidas-Arteaga, 247, 419, 528, 580 Batou, 270 Bazant, 557 Bazzurro, 583, 584 Beck, A.T., 151, 152 Beck, J.L., 478 Becker, 365 Beer, 107, 131, 155, 157, 172, 190, 314, 420 Behmanesh, 576 Bergmeister, 318 Beyer, 246 Bezak, 324 Biondini, 108 Bisby, 341 Blass, 210 Blatman, 573 Bobby, 577 Bocchini, 443 Bolle, 444 Bonnet, 528 Bonstrom, 142 Botha, 124 Botte, 214 Bourinet, 529 Brandner, 218 Brandrud Næss, 597 Bratulic, 218 Breitung, 160, 356 Brevault, 220 Breysse, 316 Brilly, 324

Broggi, 155 Browne, 573 Bründl, 263 Bucher, 566 Cao, M., 230 Cao, Z., 143, 291 Caprani, 642 Cárdenas Gallo, 419 Carozza, 317 Carrillo-Bueno, 654 Casas, 123 Casciati, 575, 575 Caspeele, 214 Castanier, 247, 435 Caulfield, 158 Cavaco, 123 Cavalieri, 309 Champion, 404 Chateauneuf, 580, 606, 615 Chatzi, 501 Chen, Changkun, 281 Chen, Cheng, 147 Chen, Hongzhi, 590 Chen, Jianbing, 459 Cheng, 650 Ching, 532 Chioccarelli, 236 Cho, 226 Choi, 321 Chouinard, 423 Christian, 102 Christou, 443 Chudoba, 384 Chun, 495

Cimellaro, 274, 493 Cocke, 277 Collette, 400 Comerford, 131 Conte, 479, 526 Cordeiro, 573 Corotis, 137, 142 Courage, 513 Crowley, 583, 584 D'Angelo, 621 D’Ayala, 323, 343 Dabaghi, 402 Daganzo, 111 Dai, 336 Dan, 256 Dann, 251, 252 Dawson, 398 De, 594 de Angelis, 420 De Leon, 273 De Luca, 380 De Risi, 192, 317, 399 DeBock, 391 Decatoire, 259 Defaux, 255 Deierlein, 452 Delé, 276 Demissie, 125 Deng, 353 Deniz, 507 Deodatis, 162 Der Kiureghian, 135, 402, 405, 460, 494 DesRoches, 298 Di Matteo, 566

Di Paola, 566 Diamantidis, 171, 522 Didier, 276 Dimitrov, 372, 373 Dittes, 364 Dolšek, 333 Dong, 106 Dudek, 558 Dueñas-Osorio, 442, 281, 379, 456, 483, 489 Dumont, 246 Dunn, 344 Dupuits, 368 Dyanati, 424 Ebrahimian, 307, 479 El Hajj, 247 El-Khoury, 433, 437 El-Soueidy, 244 Elachachi, 259, 316, 461, 533 Eliáš, 648 Ellingwood, 205, 225 Elwood, E.D., 137 Elwood, K.J., 258 Enright, 239 Esfandiary, 425 Esteva, 273 Faber, 605, 617, 618, 620, 621 Fairhurst, 266 Fan, 387 Faravelli, 575 Feltrin, 246 Fénart, 246 Feng, 314

Fenton, 504 Fereshtehnejad, 426 Fink, 349, 370 Fontaine, 606 Ford, 398 Franchin, 309, 638 Francis, 425, 434 Frangi, 370 Frangopol, 106, 108, 407, 502 Frese, 210 Gaetani d'Aragona, 258 Galanis, 402 Galasso, 320, 344, 354, 380, 397 Galvan, 635 García-Fernández, 323 Gardoni, 359 Garrè, 388, 558 Gaspar, 257 Gastaldi, 579 Gavin, 323 Gehl, 323, 343 Gehlen, 332 Ghannad, 492 Ghosh, 442 Ghosn, 119 Giaralis, 514, 538 Gidaris, 134 Giorgio, 236, 237 Giovinazzi, 309, 330 Goda, 148, 192 Gokkaya, 452 Gomes, 215 Gómez, 456

27

Gong, 624 González, 379 Gosling, 133 Goulet, 135 Goursaud, 573 Graham-Brady, 612 Grant, 113 Grayson, 476 Griffiths, 504 Groden, 400 Guedes Soares, 257 Guerra, 122 Guest, 275 Guillaume, 529 Gupta, 224 Gustafsson, 264 Habibullah, 656 Hackl, 121 Hajializadeh, 338 Hajjar, 507 Haldar, 202 Hanea, 269, 444 Harajli, 453 Harris, 391 Hart, 309 Hartzell, 436 Hawchar, 244 He, Jingran, 459 He, Minjuan, 265 Heijer, 444 Heo, 433 Holicky, 171, 522 Hong, H.P., 387, 525 Hu, Xiaofei, 111 Hu, Yu-Gang, 532 Huang, Hongwei, 590 Huang, Qindan, 424 Huang, Wen-Chao, 156

Huang, Yong, 478 Huffman, 574 Hur, 429, 433, 450 Hutabarat, 637 Huyse, 251 Iervolino, 236, 237 Ioannou, 341 Iooss, 573 Irsyam, 637 Itoi, 185, 250, 321 Ivey Burden, 438 Jäger, 444 Jalayer, 307, 317, 399 Jamieson, 161 Jennings, 179 Jensen, 131 Jeon, 298 Jiang, 530 Jiménez, 323 Jockwer, 264 Johnson, E.A., 594 Johnson, T.J., 277 Jones, A.S.T., 161 Jones, S., 261 Juang, 624 Kabir, 180 Kameshwar, 221 Kang, 184 Kareem, 577 Kariyawasam, 653 Kasinos, 639 Katz, 537 Kazantzi, 581 Kessler, 332 Khelif, 615 Khoshnevis, 445 Kim, Chunggil, 433 Kim, Hwanpyo, 139

Kimura, 331 Kirane, 557 Kiremidjian, 428 Klippel, 370 Klutke, 415 Ko, 309 Koduru, 361, 472 Koh, 633 Kohiyama, 337 Kohler, 121 Köhler, 349 Kojima, 588 Kolter, 484 Komey, 353 Konakli, 159 Kongar, 330 Kosgodagan, 435 Kougioumtzoglou, 128, 131, 157, 514 Kramer, 231 Kroetz, 152 Kusanovic, 131 Lacaze, 220 Lam, F., 265, 294 Langlois, 423 Large, 316 Lataniotis, 223 Lazarov, 373 Le Gat, 316 Le Gratiet, 573 Leahy, 239 Lee, Ji Y., 205 Lee, Young-Joo, 184, 226 Legeron, 423 Leira, 597, 598 Letchford, 271 Lewis, 190

Li, Binbin, 135, 405 Li, Dianqing, 291 Li, Gong-Bo, 182 Li, Jian, 281 Li, Jie, 459, 521, 530, 544, 578 Li, Minghao, 265 Li, Yong, 526 Li, Yuan, 294 Li, Yue, 197 Li, Zheng, 265 Liao, 455 Liel, 391, 404 Lin, 458 Lind, 618 Liu, Junwei, 612 Liu, Ke, 359 Liu, Wei, 256, 521 Liu, Zhangjun, 256 Lombardo, 639 Lopez, 273 Lopez-Garcia, 134, 146 Loth, 268 Low, 634 Lu, Da-Gang, 182 Lu, Dongliang, 361 Luco, 404 Lupoi, 638 Luque, 491 Mack, 390 Mackie, 154 Madanat, 111, 272 Maes, 160, 252 Mahin, 274, 493 Mahsuli, 492, 520 Mai, 187 Malavisi, 493 Malings, 541

Maljaars, 435 Manfredi, 258, 307, 317, 399 Manning, 344 Marelli, 209 Marjanishvili, 537 Markhvida, 178 Marques, 584 Martin, 624 Martinez-Pastor, 158 Martins, João, 246 Martins, Luís, 584 Maurice, 573 Mavroeidis, 127, 134 Mayorga, 131 Mbuya, 317 McAllister, 651 Medaglia, 379 Medury, 272 Meijers, 513 Melchers, 297 Memarzadeh, 484 Mendoza, 436 Mensah, 489 Miano, 399 Micic, 394, 565 Mikoš, 324 Miller, 178 Minas, 320 Miraglia, 513 Mirzaei Rafsanjani, 248 Mirzaie, 492 Missoum, 220 Mitseas, 157 Mo, 387 Moaveni, 576 Modena, 579 Moehle, 402

Mojsilovic, 194 Mondoro, 407 Morales-Napoles, 435 Mori, 588 Moura, 190 Moustapha, 529 Mudd, 271 Muderrisoğlu, 440 Mulia, 637 Munoz Zuniga, 389 Murangira, 389 Murphy, 254 Næss, A., 282, 597, 622 Næss, O.E.B., 597 Naghibi, 504 Nagel, 194 Natarajan, 223 Nazari, 197 Neves, 123 Ní Choine, 323 Nicholson, 163 Nielsen, 207 Nishida, 321 Nishimura, 475 Nogal, 158 Noto, 638 Novak, 646 Nussbaumer, 621 O'Connor, 158, 323 O'Mahoney, 390 OBrien, 239, 338 Øiseth, 282 Opeyemi, 172 Ozaki, 588 Padgett, 221, 442 Pagani, 212 Pakrashi, 254 Palmeri, 639

28

Pandey, 200, 536, 650 Pang, W., 199, 476 Papakonstantinou, 162 Paredes, 483 Parisi, 354, 397 Patelli, 155, 172, 190, 245, 314, 420 Patev, 122 Paulino, 359, 495 Pedrosa, 151 Peek, 179 Pei, 199 Pellegrino, 579 Peng, 578 Perdrizet, 389 Phoon, 249, 532, 634 Pinelli, 277 Pirrotta, 566 Polese, 258 Porter, 581 Power, 239, 323, 338 Pozzi, 484, 494, 541 Pregnolato, 397, 398 Proske, 408 Prota, 258, 399 Qin, Jianjun, 154, 617 Radhika, 396 Raghunandan, 404 Rahimi, 520 Raimbault, 536 Rajagopal, 428, 455 Ramirez-Marquez, 163 Ravichandran, 199 Reid, 622 Renaud, 316

Retief, 124, 171 Reynolds, 238, 655 Rezaei, 423 Rezaeian, 436 Riascos-Ochoa, 415 Richardson, 147 Ringhofer, 218 Rochinha, 145 Rockafellar, 453, 464 Roke, 424 Rokneddin, 442 Rønnquist, 282 Roscoe, 269 Rosowsky, 271, 363 Rossetto, 192, 320, 330, 341 Rossi, 579 Royset, 453, 464 Ruiz, Rafael O., 146 Ruiz, Sonia E., 654 Rush, 341 Ryan, Hezareigh, 147 Ryan, Paraic C., 114 Rypl, 384 Sabella, 354 Sadiq, 125, 180 Sahraoui, 615 Salceda, 323 Salviato, 557 Sánchez-Silva, 379, 415, 419, 456 Sättele, 263 Scherb, 388 Schmuhl, 429 Schneider, 605

Schöbi, 116 Schoefs, 244, 247, 259, 528 Schweckendiek, 243, 368 Scott, 357 Sekimura, 250 Sengara, 637 Serrano, 264 Sessa, 439 Shafieezadeh, 298, 426, 429, 433, 437, 438, 450 Shahin, 603 Shan-E-Fatima, 656 Shibata, 475 Shields, 139, 275, 358 Shoeibi Omrani, 390 Shuku, 475 Sidi, 637 Silva, 583, 584 Skow, 361 Snoj, 333 Soize, 270 Soliman, 407 Song, 495, 497, 507 Sørensen, 207, 223, 231, 248, 620, 636 Soubra, 603 Spackova, 364 Spence, 465, 577 Spencer, 114 Spiridonakos, 501 Šraj, 324 Steiger, 264 Stern, 497

Stewart, J.P., 550 Stewart, Mark G., 113, 114 Stojadinovic, 154, 276 Straub, 263, 313, 364, 388, 491 Strauss, 502 Stuedlein, 574 Sudret, 116, 159, 187, 194, 209, 223, 529 Sun, Li, 276 Sun, Qianwei, 521 Sun, Xiaodan, 436 Sundar, 358 Swan, 107 Sykora, 522 Taborda, 445 Taerwe, 214 Taflanidis, 127, 134, 146, 538 Tahashima, 588 Takada, 321 Tamparopoulos, 318 Tanaka, 337 Tang, 249 Tannert, 266 Tao, 544 Teixeira, 257 Terzic, 274 Tesfamariam, 125, 148, 180, 638 Testik, 199 Thomas, 458 Thöns, 605, 617 Tien, 460, 494

Timashev, 172 Tolentino, 654 Tolo, 155 Tomasian, 316 Torrents, 391 Tran, 528 Tsuchida, 331 Unnikrishnan, 616 Valoroso, 439 Vamvatsikos, 517, 581 van de Lindt, 179, 197 Van Gelder, 323 Vetter, 127 Vidovic, 502 Viljoen, 124, 171, 238, 655 Vlachos, 162 Vořechovský, 384, 646, 648 Vrouwenvelder, 243, 618, 620 Walbridge, 536 Walter, 255 Wang, J.P., 103 Wang, Min, 279 Wang, Naiyu, 225, 230 Wang, Wei, 336 Wang, Yu, 143 Wang, Yue, 363 Wang, Z., 650 Waring, 107 Weatherill, 212 Wendner, 318, 502 Wilkinson, 344 Witteveen, 390

Wojtkiewicz, 594 Work, 497 Xiao, 291 Yalamas, 259 Yáñez-Godoy, 461, 533 Yang, J. G., 578 Yang, Jian, 119 Yang, Yang, 275 Yazgan, 440 Yeung, T., 247, 435 Yoshida, 188 Yu, 156 Yuan, 279 Yue, 593 Zambon, 502 Zanini, 579 Zhang, Jie, 590, 624 Zhang, Jing, 367 Zhang, Shenwei, 653 Zhang, Weili, 230 Zhang, Xiaoyue, 266 Zhang, Yuanjin, 128 Zhao, 143 Zhou, Chuangbing, 291 Zhou, Wenxing, 653 Zhou, Xiao-Yi, 133 Zhu, Minjie, 357 Zhu, Mu, 275 Zhu, Yi-Chen, 261 Zielinski, 353 Zio, 145 Zwirglmaier, 313

29

Paper Index 102: Bayesian Methods and Liquefaction, Christian*, Baecher, MS-15-C 103: Seismic Hazard Analysis with the Bayesian Approach, Wang*, MS-12-A 106: Risk, Resilience, and Sustainability Assessment of Infrastructure Systems in a Life-Cycle Context Considering Uncertainties, Dong*, Frangopol, MS-11-A 107: Communicating Risk in Major Incidents: the Public’s Perception, Swan*, Waring, Alison, Beer, MS-17 108: Role of Uncertainty in Life-Cycle Design of Concrete Structures, Biondini*, Frangopol, MS-27-A 111: A Reliability-Based Optimization Scheme for Maintenance Management in Large-Scale Bridge Networks, Hu, Daganzo, Madanat*, GS-18/GS-20 113: Likelihood of Progressive Collapse of Buildings from Terrorist Attacks, Stewart*, Grant, MS-17 114: Cost-Effective Design and Maintenance of Timber Power Distribution Poles in a Changing Climate, Ryan*, Stewart, Spencer, MS-28-A 116: Propagation of Uncertainties Modelled by Parametric p-boxes using Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansions, Schöbi*, Sudret, MS-9-B 119: Reliability-Based Progressive Collapse and Redundancy Analysis of Suspension Bridges, Yang*, Ghosn, MS-25-B 121: The Assessment of the Reliability of Potentially Deteriorated Reinforced Concrete Elements with Bayesian Networks, Hackl*, Kohler, MS-1-C 122: Assessing and Managing Natural Risks at the Panama Canal, Alfaro*, Baecher, Guerra, Patev, MS-4-A 123: Life-cycle System Performance of Bridges: A Robustness-based Approach, Cavaco, Casas*, Neves, MS-27-A 124: Variability of Time Independent Wind Load Components, Botha*, Retief, Viljoen, GS-17-A 125: Prediction of Soil Corrosivity Index: A Bayesian Belief Network Approach, Demissie*, Tesfamariam, Sadiq, MS-1-A 127: Tuning of Record-based Stochastic Ground Motion Models for Hazard-compatibility and Applications to Seismic Risk Assessment, Vetter, Taflanidis*, Mavroeidis, MS-20-A 128: An Approximate Approach for Assessing the Reliability of a Stochastically Excited Softening Duffing Oscillator, Zhang*, Kougioumtzoglou, MS-16-A 131: Structural System Response and Reliability Analysis under Incomplete Earthquake Records, Comerford*, Jensen, Beer, Mayorga, Kougioumtzoglou, Kusanovic, MS-13-B 133: Stochastic Multi-scale Finite Element Analysis for Laminated Composite Plates, Zhou*, Gosling, GS-8/GS-9 134: Design of Floor Isolation Systems Through Multi-objective Criteria for Seismic Risk Performance, Gidaris*, Taflanidis, Lopez-Garcia, Mavroeidis, MS-23-A 135: Pre-posterior Optimization of Sequence of Measurement and Intervention Actions under Structural Reliability Constraint, Goulet*, Der Kiureghian, Li, MS-26-A 137: A Clustering Approach to Identification of Seismic Building Damage Patterns for Concrete Structures, Elwood, Corotis*, MS-17 139: Simulation of Strongly Non-Gaussian and Non-stationary Stochastic Processes by Karhunen-Loeve Expansion, Kim*, Shields, MS-24 142: Preliminary Extension of First Order Reliability Methods for Combined Seismic and Wind Hazard Loss Estimation for a Portfolio of Buildings, Corotis*, Bonstrom, MS-25-A 143: Determination of Soil Property Characteristic Values from Standard Penetration Tests, Wang*, Zhao, Cao, MS-15-A 145: Computational Simulation of Hydraulic Fracturing Nonlinear Dynamics using Gaussian Processes Surrogates, Zio, Rochinha*, MS-9-D 146: Seismic Optimization of a Novel Tuned Sloshing Damper for the Chilean Region based on Life-cycle Cost Criteria, Ruiz, Taflanidis, Lopez-Garcia*, MS-13-A 147: Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of Real-Time Hybrid Simulation of Structures with Degradation, Ryan, Chen*, Richardson, GS-15 148: Seismic Risk Assessment of Mega-thrust Mw9-class Subduction Earthquakes and Aftershocks in Victoria, BC, Using Multi-variate Seismic Demand Models, Goda*, Tesfamariam, MS-10 151: Optimization of Non-linear Truss Considering Expected Consequences of Failure, Pedrosa, Beck*, MS-23-A 152: Performance of Surrogate Modelling Techniques in Structural Reliability, Kroetz, Beck*, MS-9-C 154: Improved Probability Distribution Models for Seismic Fragility Assessment, Qin*, Mackie, Stojadinovic, GS-1-A 155: Enhanced Bayesian Networks approach to Risk Assessment of Spent Fuel Ponds, Tolo*, Patelli, Beer, Broggi, MS-1-A 156: Levee Reliability Analysis Considering Different Failure Mechanisms – A Case Study (Gueishan Levee) in Southern Taiwan, Huang*, Yu, MS-15-C 157: Nonlinear Stoch. Dynamic Analysis for Performance-based Multi-objective Optimum Design Considering Life Cycle Seismic Loss Estimation, Mitseas, Kougioumtzoglou, Beer, MS-13-A 158: Dynamic Restricted Equilibrium Model to Determine Statistically the Resilience of a Traffic Network to Extreme Weather Events, Nogal*, Martinez-Pastor, O'Connor, Caulfield, MS-28-B 159: Low-rank Tensor Approximations for Reliability Analysis, Konakli*, Sudret, MS-9-A 160: Estimating Event Probabilities using Zero Failure Data, Breitung, Maes*, MS-14 161: The Effect of Under-reporting of Non-fatal Involvements in Snow Avalanches on Vulnerability, Jamieson*, Jones, MS-4-A 162: A Fully Parametric Non-stationary Spectral-based Stochastic Ground Motion Model, Vlachos*, Deodatis, Papakonstantinou, MS-20-A 163: Vulnerability Importance Measures Toward Resilience-Based Network Design, Barker, Nicholson*, Ramirez-Marquez, MS-11-A 171: On Standardization of the Reliability Basis of Structural Design, Holicky*, Retief, Diamantidis, Viljoen, GS-25 172: Comparative Studies on Assessment of Corrosion Rates in Pipelines as Semi-Probabilistic and Fully Stochastic Values, Opeyemi*, Patelli, Beer, Timashev, MS-14 178: Local Measures of Disruption for Quantifying Seismic Risk and Reliability of Complex Networks, Baker*, Miller, Markhvida, MS-3 179: Multi-Objective Community-Level Seismic Retrofit Optimization for Resiliency using Engineering and Socioeconomic Variables, Jennings*, van de Lindt, Peek, MS-25-A 180: Prediction of Water Mains Failure - A Bayesian Approach, Kabir*, Tesfamariam, Sadiq, GS-1-A 182: Reproducing Kernel-Based Support Vector Machine for Structural Reliability Analysis, Lu*, Li, MS-9-C 184: Efficient Post-hazard Probabilistic Flow Analysis of Water Pipe Networks, Kang*, Lee, MS-3

30

185: Stochastic Ground Motion Simulation for Crustal Earthquakes in Japan, Itoi*, MS-20-A 187: Polynomial Chaos Expansions for Damped Oscillators, Mai*, Sudret, MS-9-A 188: Parameter Study on Optimal Sampling Planning based on Value of Information, Yoshida*, MS-26-A 190: Learning from Accidents: Analysis and Representation of Human Errors in Multi-attribute Events, Moura*, Beer, Lewis, Patelli, MS-17 192: Coupled Simulation of Ground Shaking and Tsunami for Mega-thrust Subduction Earthquakes, Goda*, De Risi, Rossetto, MS-10 194: Bayesian Assessment of the Compressive Strength of Structural Masonry, Nagel*, Mojsilovic, Sudret, MS-12-A 197: Quantifying and Accounting for Aftershock Hazard in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering, van de Lindt*, Nazari, Li, MS-10 199: An Agent-based Framework for Modeling the Effectiveness of Hurricane Mitigation Incentives, Pei, Pang*, Testik, Ravichandran, GS-17-A 200: Finite Element Reliability Analysis of Structures using the Dimensional Reduction Method, Balomenos*, Pandey, GS-8/GS-9 202: A Comparison of Unscented and Extended Kalman Filtering for Nonlinear System Identification, Al-Hussein*, Haldar, MS-22 205: Ethical Discounting for Intergenerational Life-cycle Risk Assessment, Lee*, Ellingwood, MS-27-A 207: Risk-based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP, Nielsen*, Sørensen, MS-1-B 209: Compressive Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Multi Dimensional Model Maps, Marelli, Sudret*, MS-9-B 210: Numerical Description of Size and Load Configuration Effects in Glulam Structures, Frese*, Blass, MS-6-B 212: Identifying the Needs and Future Directions of Seismic Hazard for Probabilistic Infrastructure Risk Analysis, Weatherill*, Pagani, MS-11-A 214: Bayesian Updated Time-Dependent Chloride-Induced Corrosion Assessment Using Redundancy Factors, Botte*, Caspeele, Taerwe, MS-27-A 215: Risk Optimization of Trusses Using a New Gradient Estimation Method, Gomes*, MS-23-A 218: Serial Correlation of Withdrawal Properties from Axially-Loaded Self-Tapping Screws, Brandner*, Bratulic, Ringhofer, MS-6-B 220: A Sampling-based RBDO Algorithm with Local Refinement and Efficient Gradient Estimation, Lacaze*, Missoum, Brevault, Balesdent, MS-9-C 221: Fragility Assessment of Above Ground Petroleum Storage Tanks under Storm Surge, Kameshwar*, Padgett, GS-24 223: Fusing Simulation Results from Multifidelity Aero-servo-elastic Simulators - Application to Extreme Loads on Wind Turbine, Abdallah*, Sudret, Lataniotis, Sørensen, Natarajan, MS-9-D 224: A Bayesian Change Point Model to Detect Changes in Event Occurrence Rates, with Application to Induced Seismicity, Gupta*, Baker, MS-26-A 225: Disaggregating Community Resilience Objectives to Achieve building Performance Goals, Wang*, Ellingwood, MS-25-A 226: Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Using System Reliability Analysis and SHM-based Finite Element Model Updating, Lee*, Cho, GS-23 230: Travel Time Reliability Based Bridge Network Maintenance Optimization under Budget Constraint, Zhang, Cao, Wang*, MS-27-B 231: Reliability-based Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Wave Energy Converters, Ambühl*, Kramer, Sørensen, GS-25 236: Age- and State-Dependent Seismic Reliability of Structures, Iervolino, Giorgio, Chioccarelli*, MS-13-A 237: Stochastic Modeling of Recovery from Seismic Shocks, Iervolino*, Giorgio, MS-11-A 238: Economic Optimization Considerations in South African Dam Rehabilitations, Viljoen, Reynolds, (Presented by Botha), MS-4-B 239: Estimating Characteristic Bridge Traffic Load Effects Using Bayesian Statistics, Leahy, OBrien, Enright, Power, (Presented by O'Connor), GS-23 243: Value of Information in Retrofitting of Flood Defenses, Schweckendiek*, Vrouwenvelder, MS-26-A 244: Time-Variant Reliability Analysis using Polynomial Chaos Expansion, Hawchar, El-Soueidy*, Schoefs, MS-9-A 245: Efficient Monte Carlo Algorithm for Rare Failure Event Simulation, Patelli*, Au, MS-24 246: Defining a Braking Probability to Estimate Extreme Braking Forces on Road Bridges, Martins*, Fénart, Feltrin, Dumont, Beyer, GS-25 247: A Condition-based Maintenance Policy based on a Probabilistic Meta-model in the case of Chloride-induced Corrosion, El Hajj*, Castanier, Schoefs, Bastidas-Arteaga, Yeung, GS-21 248: Fatigue Reliability of Casted Wind Turbine Components due to Defects, Mirzaei Rafsanjani*, Sørensen, GS-17-A 249: Model Uncertainty for the Capacity of Strip Footings under Negative and General Combined Loading, Phoon*, Tang, MS-15-B 250: Development of Stochastic Heterogeneous Slip Distribution Model for Simulation of Earthquake Ground Motion, Abe*, Sekimura, Itoi, GS-15 251: Bayesian Approach to Estimate Corrosion Frowth From a Limited Set of Matched Features, Dann*, Huyse, MS-14 252: Population-based Approach to Estimate Corrosion Growth in Pipelines, Dann*, Maes, MS-14 254: Reliability of Extreme Wave Prediction Methods, Barker, Murphy, Pakrashi*, MS-28-A 255: Rare Event Simulation: A Point Process Interpretation with Application in Probability and Quantile Estimation, Walter, Defaux*, MS-24 256: A New Probabilistic Model of Fully Non-Stationary Ground Motion and its Application, Liu*, Liu, Dan, MS-16-A 257: Adaptive Surrogate Model with Active Refinement Combining Kriging and a Trust Region Method, Gaspar*, Teixeira, Guedes Soares, MS-9-C 258: Building Perform. Loss After Damaging Earthquakes: An Investigation Towards Reparability Decisions, Gaetani d'Aragona, Polese*, Elwood, Baradaran Shoraka, Prota, Manfredi, MS-21 259: Optimization of Inspection Plans for Structures Submitted to Non-stationary Stochastic Degradation Processes, Decatoire*, Elachachi, Yalamas, Schoefs, MS-27-B 261: Identification Uncertainty of Close Modes in Operational Modal Analysis, Zhu, Au*, Jones, MS-22 263: Quantifying the Effect of Early Warning Systems on Natural Hazard Risk, Sättele, Bründl, Straub, MS-4-A 264: Impact of Growth Characteristics on the Fracture Perpendicular to the Grain of Timber, Jockwer*, Serrano, Gustafsson, Steiger, MS-6-B 265: Comparison of Two Reliability Assessment Methods for the Seismic Performance of Timber Steel Hybrid Structures, Lam*, Li, He, Li, MS-6-A

31

266: Seismic Reliability Analyses of Timber-Steel-Hybrid System, Zhang*, Fairhurst, Tannert, MS-6-A 268: Environmental Contours for Determination of Seismic Design Response Spectra, Loth, Baker*, MS-19 269: Bayesian Networks in Levee System Reliability, Roscoe*, Hanea, MS-1-C 270: Generation of Synthetic Accelerograms Compatible with a Set of Design Specifications, Batou*, Soize, MS-20-B 271: Implications of Hurricane-Sea Surface Temperature Relationship, Mudd, Letchford, Rosowsky*, MS-28-A 272: Incorporating Network Considerations into Pavement Management Systems, Medury*, Madanat, GS-21 273: Value of Information on the Risk/Benefit of Infrastructrure under Strong Winds in Mexico, De Leon*, Lopez, Esteva, MS-26-B 274: Quantification of Resilience improvements for Critical Facilities through Advanced Technologies, Cimellaro*, Terzic, Mahin, MS-25-A 275: Topology Optimization of Linear Structural System Under Stationary Stochastic Excitation, Zhu, Yang, Shields*, Guest, MS-23-A 276: Probabilistic Demand and Supply Resilience Model for Electric Power Supply System under Seismic Hazard, Sun*, Didier, Delé, Stojadinovic, MS-11-B 277: Probabilistic Treatment of Storm Rotation and Wind-driven Rain Deposition in a Hurricane Model, Johnson*, Pinelli, Cocke, GS-19 279: Random Field Modelling for the Prediction of Wall Thickness of Nuclear Pipes Considering Data Misalignment, Adegbola*, Yuan, Wang, GS-8/GS-9 281: Reliability and Controllability of Infrastructure Networks: Do They Match?, Li*, Dueñas-Osorio, Chen, GS-5 282: System Reliability of Suspension Bridges Considering Static Divergence and Flutter, Øiseth, Rønnquist*, Naess, GS-17-A 291: Subset Simulation-based Random Finite Element Method for Slope Reliability Analysis and Risk Assessment, Li*, Xiao, Cao, Zhou, MS-15-A 294: Duration-of-Load Effect on the Rolling Shear Strength of Cross Laminated Timber: Reliability Analysis and Duration-of-Load Strength Adjustment Factor, Li*, Lam, MS-6-B 297: Inter-relationship between Physical-Chemical Processes and Extreme Value Modelling, Melchers*, GS-1-A 298: System Fragility Curves for a Long Multi-Frame Bridge under Differential Support Motions, Jeon*, Shafieezadeh, DesRoches, GS-23 307: Towards Quantifying the Effect of Aftershocks in Seismic Risk Assessment, Jalayer*, Ebrahimian, Manfredi, MS-10 309: Probabilistic Assessment of Increased Flooding Vulnerability in Christchurch City after the Canterbury 2010-2011 Earthquake Sequence, Cavalieri*, Franchin, Ko, Giovinazzi, Hart, MS-11-B 313: Discretization of Structural Reliability Problems: An Application to Runway Overrun, Zwirglmaier*, Straub, MS-1-C 314: Reliability Analysis of Systems Based on Survival Signature, Feng*, Patelli, Beer, GS-5 316: Optimization of Future Drinking Water Pipe Renewal under Uncertainty, Large*, Tomasian, Elachachi, Le Gat, Renaud, Breysse, GS-18/GS-20 317: Comparing Alternative Flood Mitigation Strategies for Non-engineered Masonry Structures using Demand and Capacity Factored Design, Carozza*, Jalayer, De Risi, Manfredi, Mbuya, MS-5 318: Life-cycle Robustness: Quantification and Challenges, Wendner*, Tamparopoulos, Bergmeister, GS-13 320: Spectral Shape Proxies and Simplified Fragility Analysis of Mid-rise Reinforced Concrete Buildings, Minas*, Galasso, Rossetto, MS-21 321: Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunami for Tsunami-resistant Design, Choi*, Nishida, Itoi, Takada, GS-15 323: A Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Meth. Accounting for Cascading Hazards, Ní Choine, O’Connor, Gehl, D’Ayala, García-Fernández, Jiménez, Gavin, Van Gelder, Salceda, Power*, GS-12 324: Return Period Determination for Several Extreme Rainfall-induced Events using the IDF Relationship Obtained via Copulas, Bezak*, Šraj, Brilly, Mikoš, MS-5 330: Evaluating Desktop Methods for Assessing Liquefaction-Induced Damage to Infrastructure for the Insurance Sector, Kongar*, Rossetto, Giovinazzi, MS-10 331: Simulation of Narrowband Non-Gaussian Processes Using Envelope Distribution, Tsuchida*, Kimura, GS-10 332: Probability of Detection of Potential Mapping and its Impact on Service Life Prediction, Kessler*, Gehlen, GS-21 333: Pushover-Based Loss Estimation of Masonry Buildings with Consideration of Uncertainties, Snoj*, Dolšek, GS-19 336: A Nonlinear Wavelet Density-based Importance Sampling for Reliability Analysis, Wang*, Dai, MS-13-B 337: Shaking Table Experiment of Fault-Tolerant Seismic Vibration Control of a Building Based on Sensor Reliability, Tanaka, Kohiyama*, GS-15 338: Quantifying the Impact of Critical Infrastructure Failure due to Extreme Weather Events, OBrien, Hajializadeh, Power*, MS-28-B 341: Application of Expert Judgment to the Quantification of a Damage Scale for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to Fire, Ioannou*, Rush, Bisby, Aspinall, Rossetto, GS-26 343: Integrated Multi-Hazard Framework for the Fragility Analysis of Roadway Bridges, Gehl*, D’Ayala, MS-11-B 344: Development of Empirical Vulnerability Curves for Electrical Supply Systems Subjected to Wind Hazard, Dunn*, Wilkinson, Galasso, Manning, Alderson, MS-11-B 349: Aspects of Code-based Design of Timber Structures, Köhler*, Fink, MS-6-B 353: Systems Reliability of Flow Control in Dam Safety, Komey*, Deng, Baecher, Zielinski, Atkinson, GS-5 354: Fragility of Reinforced Concrete Framed Structures to Flow-type Landslides, Parisi*, Sabella, Galasso, MS-5 356: Dimension Reduction Methods for Reliability Problems, Breitung*, GS-1-A 357: Sensitivity Analysis of Fluid-Structure Interaction using the PFEM, Zhu, Scott*, GS-8/GS-9 358: Targeted Random Sampling for Time-invariant Reliability Analysis, Shields*, Sundar, GS-3 359: Approximating Sensitivity of Failure Probability in Reliability-Based Design Optimization, Liu*, Paulino, Gardoni, MS-23-A 361: Characterization of Measurement Uncertainties in Crack Profiles Assessed by In-Line Inspection Tools, Koduru*, Lu, Skow, GS-21 363: Joint Earthquake-Snow Hazard Characterization and Fragility Analysis of Wood-frame Structures, Wang, Rosowsky*, MS-6-A 364: Risk-based Optimization of Adaptable Protection Measures against Natural Hazards, Spackova*, Dittes, Straub, MS-4-A 365: Applications of Dynamic Trees to Sensitivity Analysis, Becker*, MS-9-D

32

367: Time-Dependent Fatigue Reliability Assessment of Ting Kau Bridge Based on Weigh-In-Motion Data, Zhang*, Au, GS-23 368: Flood Risk and Economically Optimal Safety Targets for Coastal Flood Defense Systems, Dupuits*, Schweckendiek, MS-4-B 370: Extension of Data Sets for a more Reliable Prediction of the Fire Resistance of Finger Joint Connections, Fink*, Klippel, Frangi, MS-6-A 372: Multivariate Modelling of Extreme Load Combinations for Wind Turbines, Dimitrov*, GS-17-B 373: Reducing Wind Turbine Load Simulation Uncertainties by Means of a Constrained Gaussian Turbulence Field, Dimitrov*, Lazarov, GS-17-A 379: The Computational Complexity of Probabilistic Interdependent Network Design Problems, González*, Dueñas-Osorio, Sánchez-Silva, Medaglia, MS-3 380: Influence of Failure Modes of RC Columns on Simplified Seismic Loss Assessment, De Luca*, Galasso, MS-21 384: The Role of Fiber Volume Fraction in Tensile Strength of Fibrous Composites, Rypl*, Vorechovsky, Chudoba, GS-1-B 387: Application of Region of Influence Approach to Estimate Extreme Snow Load for a Northeastern Province in China, Mo*, Fan, Hong, GS-12 388: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Infrastructure Networks Subjected to Hurricanes, Scherb*, Garrè, Straub, MS-11-C 389: Estimation of the Failure Probability of a Floating Wind Turbine under Environmental Load, Murangira, Munoz Zuniga*, Perdrizet, GS-3 390: Uncertainty Quantification of Heavy Gas Release Over a Barrier, Shoeibi Omrani*, O'Mahoney, Mack, Witteveen, GS-7 391: Reliability-Based Snow Load Maps for Building Design, DeBock, Liel*, Harris, Torrents, MS-19 394: Probabilistic Model for Ageing Masonry Walls, Micic, Asenov*, MS-27-B 396: Force Identification by Comparing Likelihood Function using Bayesian Filtering Methods, Radhika*, MS-12-A 397: A Compendium of Existing Vulnerability and Fragility Relationships for Flood: Preliminary Results, Pregnolato*, Galasso, Parisi, MS-5 398: Analysis Of The Risk Of Transport Infrastructure Disruption From Extreme Rainfall, Pregnolato*, Ford, Dawson, MS-5 399: A Case-study on Scenario-based Probabilistic Seismic Loss Assessment for a Portfolio of Bridges, Miano, Jalayer*, De Risi, Prota, Manfredi, MS-25-B 400: Bayesian Networks for Model Updating and Inspection Support of Marine Structures Subject to Fatigue, Groden*, Collette, MS-1-A 402: Validation of Synthetic Near-Fault Ground Motions to Estimate the Response of a Concrete Building in a Risk Assessment Framework, Dabaghi*, Galanis, Der Kiureghian, Moehle, MS-20-B 404: Modifications to Risk-Targeted Seismic Design Maps for Subduction and Near-Fault Hazards, Liel*, Luco, Raghunandan, Champion, MS-19 405: Operational Modal Analysis using Variational Bayes, Li*, Der Kiureghian, MS-1-A 407: Life-cycle Maintenance, Monitoring, and Inspection Optimization for Ship Structures under Uncertainty, Soliman, Frangopol*, Mondoro, GS-21 408: Statistical Investigation of Extreme Weather Conditions, Proske*, MS-28-A 415: A Unified Formalism For Modeling And Reliability Estimation Of Degrading Systems, Riascos-Ochoa*, Sánchez-Silva, Klutke, GS-13 419: A Markov Regime-Switching Framework Application for Describing El Niño Southern Oscillat. Patterns, Cárdenas Gallo*, Sánchez-Silva, Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Bastidas-Arteaga, MS-28-B 420: Uncertainty Management of Safety-Critical Systems: A Solution to the Back-Propagation Problem, de Angelis*, Patelli, Beer, MS-12-A 423: Vulnerability Analysis of Transmission Towers subjected to Unbalanced Ice Loads, Rezaei*, Chouinard, Legeron, Langlois, GS-24 424: Life Cycle Cost-Benefit Evaluation of Self-centering and Conventional Concentrically Braced Frames, Dyanati, Huang*, Roke, GS-24 425: Integrated Spatial Community Resilience Decision Tool Unifying Social Vulnerability Indices and Relative Sea-Level Rise Predictions, Francis*, Esfandiary, MS-25-B 426: Risk Management of Multi-State Multi-Component Bridge Systems Using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, Shafieezadeh*, Fereshtehnejad, GS-19 428: The Continuous Wavelet Transform as a Stochastic Process for Damage Detection, Balafas*, Rajagopal, Kiremidjian, GS-13 429: Probabilistic Capacity Assessment of a Prestressed Concrete Pile in a Corrosive Marine Environment, Schmuhl, Shafieezadeh, Hur*, MS-15-B 433: Shake Table Tests of Stochastic Optimal Polynomial Control of Two Span Bridge Equipped with MR Dampers, El-Khoury*, Kim, Shafieezadeh, Hur, Heo, GS-26 434: Simulation-Based Analysis of Reconfigurable System of System Network Topologies for Resilience Using Bayesian Networks, Francis*, MS-1-B 435: BN to Quantify Transition Rates in Degradation Modeling: Application to a Set of Steel Bridges in the Netherlands, Kosgodagan*, Morales-Napoles, Maljaars, Yeung, Castanier, MS-1-C 436: Simulation of Earthquake Ground Motions in The Eastern U.S. Using Physics-based and Stochastic Approaches, Rezaeian*, Hartzell, Sun, Mendoza, MS-20-A 437: A Constrained Nonlinear Stochastic Optimal Control for Dynamical Systems, El-Khoury*, Shafieezadeh, GS-10 438: Application of a Scenario-Based Assessment Framework for the Seismic Resilience of Seaports, Ivey Burden, Shafieezadeh*, GS-19 439: Use of Kriging to Surrogate Finite Element Models of Bonded Double Cantilever Beams, Sessa*, Valoroso, MS-9-D 440: An Improved Approach for Aftershock Hazard Assessment, Muderrisoğlu*, Yazgan, GS-12 442: Uncertainty Propagation in Seismic Reliability Evaluation of Aging Transportation Networks, Rokneddin, Ghosh, Duenas-Osorio, Padgett, (Presented by Kameshwar), MS-9-A 443: Efficient Computational Models for the Optimal Representation of Correlated Regional Hazard, Christou*, Bocchini, MS-25-B 444: A Bayesian Network Approach to Coastal Storm Impact Modeling, Jäger*, Heijer, Bolle, Hanea, MS-4-B 445: Sensitivity of Ground Motion Simulation Validation Criteria to Filtering, Khoshnevis, Taborda*, MS-20-B 450: Seismic Intensity Measures for Probabilistic Demand Modeling of Rocking Rigid Components, Hur*, Shafieezadeh, MS-13-C 452: Illustrating a Bayesian Approach to Seismic Collapse Risk Assessment, Gokkaya*, Baker, Deierlein, MS-13-A 453: Importance Sampling in the Evaluation and Optimization of Buffered Failure Probability, Harajli*, Rockafellar, Royset, GS-3 455: Message-passing Sequential Detection of Multiple Structural Damages, Liao*, Rajagopal, MS-22 456: Resource Allocation and Uncertainty when Modeling Infrastructure Networks as Socio-technical Systems, Gómez*, Sánchez-Silva, Dueñas-Osorio, MS-24

33

458: Addressing Uncertainty in Ensemble Sea-Level Rise Predictions, Thomas*, Lin, MS-28-B 459: A Random Field Representation Based on Stochastic Harmonic Functions, Chen*, He, Li, MS-16-A 460: Compression and Inference Algorithms for Bayesian Network Modeling of Infrastructure Systems, Tien*, Der Kiureghian, MS-1-C 461: Effects of Spatial Soil Heterogeneities on Structural Behavior of a Steel Sheet Pile, Yáñez-Godoy*, Elachachi, MS-15-A 464: Risk Measures in Engineering Design under Uncertainty, Rockafellar, Royset*, MS-23-B 465: The SL-AVV Approach to System Level Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Large Uncertain and Stochastic Dynamic Systems, Spence*, MS-23-B 472: Strategies for Separation of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties, Koduru*, GS-26 475: Diagnosis of Earth-fill Dams by Synthesized Approach of Sounding and Surface Wave Method, Nishimura*, Shibata, Shuku, MS-15-C 476: Analytical Damage Quantification Method for Residential Developments Subjected to Hurricane Wind Hazards, Grayson*, Pang, GS-17-B 478: Sparse Bayesian Learning with Gibbs Sampling for Structural Health Monitoring with Noisy Incomplete Modal Data, Huang*, Beck, MS-12-B 479: Material Parameter Estimation in Distributed Plasticity FE Models Using the Unscented Kalman Filter, Astroza, Ebrahimian, Conte*, MS-12-B 483: A Time-Dependent Seismic Resilience Analysis Approach for Networked Lifelines, Paredes*, Dueñas-Osorio, MS-11-C 484: Hierarchical Modeling of Systems with Similar Components, Memarzadeh, Pozzi*, Kolter, GS-1-A 489: A Data Fusion Probabilistic Model for Hurricane-Induced Outages in Electric Power Grids, Mensah*, Dueñas-Osorio, MS-1-B 491: Probabilistic Modeling of System Deterioration with Inspection and Monitoring Data using Bayesian Networks, Luque*, Straub, MS-1-B 492: Probabilistic Analysis of Soil-Structure Interaction, Mirzaie, Mahsuli, Ghannad*, GS-15 493: Fragility Curves of Restoration Processes for Resilience Analysis, Barberis, Malavisi, Cimellaro*, Mahin, GS-5 494: A Dynamic Bayesian Network Framework for Risk Assessment of Systems Based on Sensor Measurements, Tien*, Pozzi, Der Kiureghian, MS-12-B 495: Topology Optimization of Structures under Constraints on First Passage Probability, Chun*, Song, Paulino, MS-23-B 497: Network Reliability Analysis for Cluster Connectivity Using AdaBoost, Stern*, Song, Work, MS-3 501: Data-Driven Polynomial Chaos Basis Estimation, Spiridonakos*, Chatzi, MS-9-A 502: Prediction of Creep and Shrinkage based on Gamma Process Models, Strauss*, Wendner, Vidovic, Zambon, Frangopol, MS-27-B 504: Reliability-Based Geotechnical Design: Towards a Unified Theory, Fenton*, Naghibi, Griffiths, MS-15-A 507: Energy-based Seismic Collapse Risk Assessment of Structures, Deniz, Song*, Hajjar, MS-13-A 513: Fragility Functions for Pipeline in Liquefiable Sand: A Case Study on the Groningen Gas Network, Miraglia*, Courage, Meijers, MS-21 514: A Stochastic Dynamics Approach for Response Spectrum Analysis of Bilinear Systems using Time-dependent Equivalent Linear Properties, Giaralis*, Kougioumtzoglou, MS-13-B 517: A View of Seismic Robustness Based on Uncertainty, Vamvatsikos*, MS-13-B 520: Reliability-based Seismic Hazard Analysis, Rahimi, Mahsuli*, Bakhshi, GS-12 521: Physically-based Seismic Reliability Evaluation of Water Distribution Networks, Liu*, Sun, Li, MS-16-A 522: Determination of Target Safety for Structures, Holicky*, Diamantidis, Sykora, GS-25 525: Application of the Box-Cox Power Transformation in Extreme Value Analysis of Wind Speed, Hong*, GS-17-B 526: Probabilistic Performance-based Optimum Seismic Design with Application to the California High-Speed Rail Prototype Bridge, Li, Conte*, MS-23-B 528: Parameter Identification In Chloride Ingress From Accelerated Test Using Bayesian Network, Tran, Bastidas-Arteaga*, Bonnet, Schoefs, MS-1-A 529: Adaptive Kriging Reliability-based Design Optimization of an Automotive Body Structure under Crashworthiness Constraints, Moustapha*, Sudret, Bourinet, Guillaume, MS-9-C 530: A Phase Space Reconstruction Method for getting Instantaneous Probability Density Function of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems, Jiang, Li*, MS-16-B 532: On the Use of Spatially Averaged Shear Strength for the Bearing Capacity of a Shallow Foundation, Ching*, Hu, Phoon, MS-15-A 533: Response of Buried Pipes Taking into Account Seismic and Soil Spatial Variabilities, Elachachi*, Yanez-Godoy, MS-20-B 536: Application of the Multiplicative Dimensional Reduction Method (M-DRM) to a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Problem, Raimbault*, Walbridge, Pandey, GS-3 537: A Framework for Performance-Based Optimization of Structural Robustness, Marjanishvili*, Katz, MS-23-C 538: Reliability-based Design of Tuned Mass-Damper-Inerter (TMDI) Equipped Multi-storey Frame Buildings under Seismic Excitation, Giaralis*, Taflanidis, MS-23-C 541: Sensor Network Optimization using Bayesian Networks, Decision Graphs, and Value of Information, Malings*, Pozzi, MS-1-B 544: A Two-step Density Estimation Method and Its Applications, Tao*, Li, MS-16-B 550: Conditional Simulation of Spatially Variable Motions on 2D Grid, Ancheta*, Stewart, MS-20-B 557: Nanomechanics Based Theory of Size Effect on Strength, Lifetime and Residual Strength Distributions of Quasibrittle Failure: A Review, Salviato*, Kirane, Bazant, GS-1-B 558: Using Random Simulation of Hurricane Tracks for Risk Analysis, Garrè*, Dudek, MS-4-B 565: Risk Perception in Civil Engineering Applications, Micic, MS-17 566: The Moment Equation Closure Method Revisited through the Use of Complex Fractional Moments, Alotta, Bucher, Di Matteo, Di Paola, Pirrotta*, GS-10 573: Building Probability of Detection Curves via Metamodels, Browne*, Le Gratiet, Blatman, Cordeiro, Goursaud, Iooss, Maurice, MS-9-D 574: Effect of Correlation Structure Model on Geotechnical Reliability-based Serviceability Limit State Simulations, Huffman, Stuedlein*, MS-15-B 575: Pedestrian Bridges Monitoring Data for Stochastic Modelling of Human-induced Loads, Casciati, Casciati, Faravelli*, GS-1-B

34

576: Probabilistic Damage Identification of the Dowling Hall Footbridge through Hierarchical Bayesian Model Updating, Behmanesh, Moaveni*, MS-12-B 577: Topology Optimization for Buildings in Seismic Zones within a PBEE Framework, Bobby, Spence*, Kareem, MS-13-C 578: Stochastic Optimal Control of MR Damped Structures with Uncertain Parameters, Peng*, Yang, Li, MS-16-B 579: A Probabilistic Approach in Estimating Optimal Evacuation Scenarios for Seismic Emergency Management, Zanini*, Pellegrino, Rossi, Gastaldi, Modena, MS-11-C 580: Optimal Design of New Deteriorating Timber Components under Climate Variations, Bastidas-Arteaga, Aoues*, Chateauneuf, MS-6-A 581: Analytical Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for a Class of Modern Low-Rise Steel Frames, Kazantzi, Vamvatsikos*, Porter, MS-13-C 583: Advances on Risk-targeted Hazard Estimation within the European Context, Silva*, Crowley, Bazzurro, MS-19 584: Investigation of Structural Fragility for Risk-targeted Hazard Assessment, Martins*, Silva, Crowley, Bazzurro, Marques, MS-19 588: Probabilistic Hazard Model of Inelastic Oscillator based on Semi-theoretical Solutions of First Passage Problem, Mori*, Tahashima, Kojima, Ozaki, MS-13-B 590: Variability of Allowable Bearing Capacity of Soft Soil Stabilized by End-bearing Deep Mixed Columns, Zhang, Chen*, Huang, MS-15-B 593: Dynamic Response and Reliability of Tunnel under Earthquakes, Yue*, Ang, MS-16-B 594: Efficient Optimal Design-Under-Uncertainty of Passive Structural Control Devices, De, Wojtkiewicz*, Johnson, MS-23-C 597: Reliability of Corroded Pipelines Accounting for System Effects, Leira*, Næss, Brandrud Næss, GS-13 598: Nonlinear Combination of Multiple Environmental Design Parameters Based on FORM Algorithms, Leira*, GS-3 603: Single vs Multi-drain Probabilistic Analyses of Soil Consolidation via Prefabricated Vertical Drains, Bari, Shahin, Soubra, (Presenter absent), MS-15-C 605: Quantification of the Value of Structural Health Monitoring Information for Fatigue Deteriorating Structural Systems, Thöns*, Schneider, Faber, MS-26-B 606: Reliability Based Design Optimization of Insulation Systems Considering Climate Change and Workmanship Uncertainties, Aïssani*, Chateauneuf, Fontaine, MS-28-B 612: Efficient Stochastic Simulation of Dynamic Brittle Strength Using a Random Perturbation-based Micromechanics Model, Graham-Brady*, Liu, MS-9-B 615: Reliability-based Maintenance Optimization of Pipelines Considering Space-variant Corrosion Rate, Sahraoui, Chateauneuf*, Khelif, MS-23-C 616: Cost-Benefit Assessment of Different Storm Mitigation Techniques for Residential Buildings using the PBHE Framework, Unnikrishnan, Barbato*, MS-4-B 617: On the Value of SHM in the Context of Service Life Integrity Management, Qin*, Thöns, Faber, MS-26-B 618: Protocols for Communication and Governance of Risks, Vrouwenvelder*, Lind, Faber, GS-18/GS-20 620: On the Regulation of Life Safety Risk, Faber*, Sørensen, Vrouwenvelder, GS-18/GS-20 621: Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Fatigue Design of Steel Bridges, D'Angelo*, Faber, Nussbaumer, GS-25 622: Influence on Structural Reliability of Uncertainty in Estimated Extreme Values of Load-Effects, Reid*, Naess, GS-7 624: An Efficient Method to Compute the Failure Probability, Gong*, Juang, Martin, Zhang, MS-15-C 633: Stochastic Dynamic Analysis of a Marine Riser using the First-Order Reliability Method, Alibrandi*, Koh, GS-24 634: Geotechnical Reliability-based Designs and Links with LRFD, Low*, Phoon, MS-15-B 635: Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems, Galvan*, Agarwal, MS-3 636: Reliability Assessment of Wind Turbines, Sørensen*, GS-17-B 637: Development of Earthquake Risk-Targeted Ground Motions for Indonesian Earthquake Resistance Building Code SNI 1726-2012, Sengara*, Irsyam, Sidi, Mulia, Asrurifak, Hutabarat, MS-19 638: A Bayesian Network Model to Assess Seismic Risk of Reinforced Concrete Girder Bridges, Franchin*, Lupoi, Noto, Tesfamariam, MS-11-C 639: Performance-Based Seismic Analysis of Light SDoF Secondary Substructures, Kasinos*, Palmeri, Lombardo, MS-13-C 642: Random Vibration of Arbitrarily Supported Single-span Beams Subject to Random Moving Loads, Caprani*, GS-10 646: Small-sample Probabilistic Simulation Software Tool FReET, Novak*, Vořechovský, GS-7 648: Improved Formulation of Audze-Eglajs Criterion for Space-filling Designs, Vořechovský*, Eliáš, GS-3 650: Stochastic Renewal Process Models for Life Cycle Cost and Utility Analysis, Pandey*, Cheng, Wang, MS-25-B 651: A Framework to Develop Community Resilience Performance Goals and Assessment Metrics for Decision Making, McAllister*, MS-25-A 653: Time-dependent Reliability Assessment for Corroding Pipelines Based on Imperfect Inspection Data, Zhang*, Kariyawasam, Zhou, MS-14 654: Evaluation of Structural Reliability for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to Corrosion, Carrillo-Bueno*, Ruiz, Tolentino, GS-13 655: Evaluation of Decisions to Rehabilitate South African Dams in terms of the ANCOLD ALARP Criterion and SWTP for Human Safety, Viljoen, Reynolds, (Presented by Botha), GS-26 656: On a Newly Developed Estimator for More Accurate Modeling with an Application to Civil Engineering, Habibullah*, Shan-E-Fatima, GS-1-B

35

Map Around the Conference Venue See the activities page at the conference website for additional information Background: Google Maps

Cactus Club Milestones Boathouse

World class shopping on Robson

Shop and eat on Davie Street

Shop and ea

t on D

enman

Street

Acacia Fillo Bar for breakfast and dinner

ICASP12 Venue

Walk along the seawall

Stanley Park

Downtown

Central Bistro for breakfast and dinner

Adesso for breakfast and dinner

Good dinner options

Rio Steak House for dinner Fish House for dinner

Beach

Red Umbrella for breakfast