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T6.1H&N, Ch. 6
Chapter Outline
6.1 Insurance Costs and Fair Premiums
6.2 Expected Claim Costs
Homogeneous buyers
Heterogeneous buyers
Competition, Risk Classification, and Societal Welfare
Redistributive Effects of Classification
Behavioral Effects of Classification
Classification Costs
Risk Classification Practices
6.3 Investment Income and the Timing of Claim Payments
6.4 Administrative costs
6.5 Profit Loading
Summary
T6.2H&N, Ch. 6
Chapter Outline
6.6 Capital Shocks and Underwriting Cycles
Fair Premiums are Forward Looking
Large Losses And Capital Shocks
The Underwriting Cycle
6.7 Price Regulation
Regulation Of Rate Changes
Why Regulate Rate Changes?
Effects of Regulating Rate Changes
Regulation of Rating Factors
Incentives for Risk Control
Fairness, Imperfect Classification, and Control/Causality Issues
Excessive Classification and Use of Subjective Assessments
Ensuring Availability When Regulation Depresses Rates
6.8 Summary
T6.3H&N, Ch. 6
Insurance Pricing
Objective:
• Find the premium that equals expected costs, including a fair return to capital
• known as the Fair Premium
• It would prevail in a competitive market
T6.4H&N, Ch. 6
Determinants of Fair Premiums
• 4 Determinants
• Expected Claim Costs
• Administrative Costs
• Investment Income
• Fair Profit Loading
• Examine each factor separately
T6.5H&N, Ch. 6
Expected Claim Costs
The premium that just covers expected claim costs is called the pure premium
• Example:
• Large number of homogeneous buyers, i.e. each has the same loss distribution:
Possible Loss Probability
$0 0.95
$10,000 0.05
• Pure Premium = $500
T6.6H&N, Ch. 6
Assumption About Uncertainty
Actual average claim cost can differ from expected claim costs, but for now we will ignore this uncertainty
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0
160
320
480
640
800
Loss
Pro
bab
ilit
y
T6.7H&N, Ch. 6
Premium Must Cover Expected Claim Costs
• To cover claim costs, on average, premiums must equal $500.
• if premium = $480, the insurer will lose money, on average
• if premium = $640, the insurer will make profits, on average (competition would prevent this)
• Conclusion:
• Fair Premium must cover expected claim costs
T6.8H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
What if there are two groups of buyers?
• One Group (MAPs: middle aged professionals)
Possible Loss Probability
$0 0.95
$10,000 0.05
• Another Group (YUMs: young unemployed males)
Possible Loss Probability
$0 0.90
$10,000 0.10
T6.9H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
Assume initially that
• Equal number of each type
• Losses are Independent
• Full Insurance is mandatory
• Costless to distinguish MAPs from YUMs
T6.10H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
• Distribution of Average Claims Costs• Again, we will ignore uncertainty
0
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0
50
0
10
00
15
00
Average Loss
Pro
ba
bil
ity
MAPs YUMs
T6.11H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
Initial Scenario:
• Equal Treatment Insurance Company is only insurer
• Premium for everyone = $750
• Does Equal Treatment cover its costs?
• Yes, the YUMs pay less than their expected cost, but the MAPs pay more
T6.12H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
New Scenario: allow competition
• Competition from Selective Insurance Company
• If Selective assumes Equal Treatment will continue to charge $750, how does Selective set price to maximize profits,
• Premium to MAPs =
• Premium to YUMs =
• Profit per policyholder =
T6.13H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
• What happens to Equal Treatment?
• It would experience adverse selection
• I.e., it would obtain an adverse selection of policyholders -- only the YUMs will purchase from Equal Treatment
• Thus, Equal Treatment will have to classify or lose money
T6.14H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
Key Points:
Profit Maximization
+ ==> Risk Classification
Competition
Lack of Classification
+ ==> Adverse Selection
Competition
T6.15H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
What if full insurance is not mandatory?
• Recall, Initial Scenario:
• Equal Treatment is only insurer
• Equal Treatment charges $750 to everyone
• What do MAPs do?
• MAPs may not purchase insurance
• If not, only YUMs buy from Equal Treatment
• Equal Treatment experiences adverse selection
T6.16H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
Key Points:
Profit Maximization
+ ==> Risk Classification
Risk Management Alternatives
to Insurance
Lack of Classification
+ ==> Adverse Selection
Risk Management Alternatives
to Insurance
T6.17H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
What if it is costly to identify MAPs?
• Go back to initial situation, but suppose that it costs $100 for each MAP identified
• Assuming Equal Treatment continues to charge $750, what does Selective charge?
• What if the cost per MAP identified = $300?
T6.18H&N, Ch. 6
Implications of Heterogeneous Buyers
Key Point:
Profit Maximization Risk Classification
+ ==> if it is
Competition Cost Effective
T6.19H&N, Ch. 6
Is Classification Good for Society?
• Public Policy Issue:
• From a societal perspective, is risk classification desirable?
• Some argue that risk classification should be restricted when
• insurance is mandatory (e.g., auto liability)
• classification is based on inherited traits (e.g., gender, genes)
• classification is based on location of residence (e.g., auto, property)
• classification is based on subjective criteria (e.g., “poor moral risks”)
T6.20H&N, Ch. 6
Is Classification Good for Society?
Framework for evaluating public policy issue:
• Four effects of restricting classification
1. Redistributes income
• From low risk to high risk
• Examples:
• Is this fair?
T6.21H&N, Ch. 6
Is Classification Good for Society?
2. Classification will alter insurance prices to certain groups and therefore change behavior
• Types of behavior:
• amount of insurance purchased
• loss control activities
• Some changes in behavior may be desirable and some undesirable
• Examples:
• amount of liability insurance purchased by poor people
• smoking
• amount of life insurance purchased by people with HIV
T6.22H&N, Ch. 6
Is Classification Good for Society?
3. May decrease classification costs
• Ignoring fairness issues (point #1), if there are no behavioral effects of classification (point #2), then costly classification is a waste;
• I.e., classification simply redistributes income
• Controversial issues: (gender, age, location) have low classification costs
T6.23H&N, Ch. 6
Is Classification Good for Society?
4. Limiting classification may increase regulatory costs
• Monitoring of insurers to enforce restrictions
• Need to impose other costly restrictions on insurers
• marketing activities
• underwriting activities
• Restrictions lead insurers to not offer coverage
• Leads to residual market (involuntary market) mechanisms
• Leads to additional costs
T6.24H&N, Ch. 6
Risk Classification Practices
• Consumers are classified by various criteria
• Class Rate is applies to all consumers in a given classification
• Underwriter decides whether a particular consumer will be offered coverage at the class rate
• Schedule rating: modification of the rate by the underwriter based on specific characteristics of the consumer (applies mostly to commercial insurance)
• Experience rating refers to practice of basing rates on past experience
T6.25H&N, Ch. 6
Recouping versus Updating
• Basing rates on past experience is often controversial
• Are insurers
• recouping past losses
or
• updating expected losses on future business?
• Competition and low switching costs limit the ability of insurers to recoup
T6.26H&N, Ch. 6
Return to Determinants of Fair Premiums
Summary:
Ignoring• administrative costs
• investment income
• profits
Fair Premium = Expected Claim Costs ||
Pure Premium
T6.27H&N, Ch. 6
Investment Income
Key Point:
• Fair premium is reduced to reflect investment income on premiums
• Equivalently,
• Fair Premium = Present Value of Expected Costs
T6.28H&N, Ch. 6
Example to Illustrate Effect of Investment Income
• Assume• no administrative costs
• one year policies, premium received at beginning
• certain claim costs = $100 paid according to table below