Systems Approach to Modelling Food Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice Ariella Helfgott Food Systems Research Group Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford ?
Jun 28, 2015
Systems Approach to Modelling Food Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice
Ariella HelfgottFood Systems Research Group
Environmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford
?
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)
… is universally applicable… is more than food production… is underpinned by food systems
Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …
… all of which contribute to crossingPlanetary Boundaries.
Agriculture as a driver of Land-cover Change‘Extensification’
• Biodiversity loss• Biodiversity loss• Soil degradation• Altered hydrology• Altered biogeochemical cycling• GHG emissions• … all PBs?
Species’ threats attributable to agriculture …
“Among the drivers of habitat loss for mammals,
agriculture and pastoralism are the most important,
together affecting 40% of terrestrial mammals”
IUCN, Red List of threatened species, 2010
Contribution of capture fisheries tobiodiversity loss
Agriculture as a source of GHG emissionsMt CO2-e, 2010
Worldwatch Institute’s Vital Signs Online Service (www.worldwatch.org)
But Food Systemsinvolve more than ‘agriculture’ …
UK’s food industry “costs”(post- farmgate)
defra, 2006
• 14% of energy consumption by UK businesses and 7 million tonnes of carbon emissions per year
• 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply
• 10% of the industrial and commercial waste stream
• 25% of all HGV vehicle kilometres in the UK
Processing Food: water use and effluent
• 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply
• Effluent significantly affects aquatic habitats• large amounts of organic materials such as proteins,
carbohydrates, and lipids• high biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and/or
chemical oxygen demand (COD)• high N and P concentration• high suspended oil or grease contents• high variations in pH
Defra, 2006; Kroyer, 1995; Prasad et al. 2010
Packaging Food
• Use of raw materials for packaging• Real and virtual energy content• Litter• Adverse consequences of careless disposal
of packaging, esp. marine biodiversity
Packaging Food
• Litter• Adverse consequences of careless
disposal of packaging, esp. marine• Use of raw materials for packaging• Real and virtual energy content• 7% GHG emissions from UK food
system (Garnett, 2008)
Guardian 1 February 2009
Refrigerant leakage accounts for 30% of super-markets’ direct GHG emissions
(Environment Investigation Agency, 2010)
Retailing food
Producing
Processing
Distributing
Consuming
Waste disposing
IndiaUK USA
Edwards et al., Inst Agric & Trade Policy, 2009 Pathak et al, Ag, Ecosys & Env, 2010Garnett, FCRN, 2009
GHG emissions across Food Systems
Example contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing food
Processing & Packaging
food
Distributing & Retailing
food
Consuming food
Climate change
GHGs, albedo
Energy Emissions from transport and cold chain
GHGs from cooking
N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs
Effluent NOx from transport
Waste
P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste
Fresh water use
Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling
Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning
Land use change
Intensificn, soil degdn
Paper/card Transport & retail infrastructure
Forest to edible oils plantation
Biodiversity loss
Deforestation, soils, fishing
[Aluminium] Invasive spp Consumer choices
Atmos.aerosols
Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking
Chemical pollution
Pesticides Effluent Transport emissions
Cooking, cleaning
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Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
•Affordability•Allocation•Preference
•Nutritional Value•Social Value•Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY
•Production•Distribution•Exchange
How do Climate Change and drivers of crossing Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?
Extreme weather affects affordability…
Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go up
Cost of wheat is 10% of cost of loaf of bread in the US, but 90% cost of chapatti in India
… and food storage …
… and food distribution …
• Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage
• Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure
• Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms
• Pathogenic bacteria in foods during heat waves.
… and aspects of food safety.
Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009
• UK normally exports ca. 2.5 Mt wheat / yr
• Wettest 2012 autumn since records began
• Coldest 2013 spring in 50 yr
=> UK expects to import 2.5 Mt in 2013
… and food availability ...
… and hence food price.
Consequences of the2008 Food Price Crisis
Agricultural intensificationleads to declines in pollinators …
Potts et al., 2010, Trends in Ecol & Evol
“… a widespread pattern of loss of pollinator richness and abundance as a result of agricultural intensification and habitat loss.” [since 1980]
… and tropospheric O3 pollution reduces yields.
Mills et al, NERC-CEH, 2011
Background
1. Planetary Boundary concerns are clear• climate change• biodiversity loss• other PBs• Complex interactions between the food
system and the environment2. Food Security a major concern
• ~ 1b hungry• ~ 2b insufficient nutrients• > 2.5b overweight or obese
So why the need to change things?
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Nutrient Quantity and Price
Productivity Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Nutrient Quantity and Price
Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient calsSufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)
currently >2.5 billion
CONSUMERS
PRODUCERS
Insufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billion
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
1
2200
- Too much - -- Too little --
Billions of people
----- Appropriate amount -----
(indicative; not to scale)
2 3 4 5 76 8 109
2050
2014
2025
kcal
/per
son/
day
cons
umed
------ Too much ------ --- Too little ------- Appropriate amount --------------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount ---
Too much -- Too little ------ Appropriate ----
2000
The biodiversity and other environmental consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems are dire
The potential health care costs from obesity-related NCDs are massive
The economic costs of diagnosed diabetes in the US alone in 2012 is $245 billion
Looking ahead ...
Resilience: common threads…
• Response of a system to disturbance or change
• All definitions describe one or more of these three types of behaviour:
• Absorbing/withstanding• Recovering• Adapting beneficially
Summary
Resilience is a property of a system that describes the nature of the response of the
system to a particular disturbance, of a particular magnitude, from the perspective
of a particular observer over a specified timescale
We need to know OF WHAT, TO WHAT, FROM WHOSE PERSPECTIVE, OVER WHAT TIME
FRAME
Framing resilience involves specifying…
Modelling the food system• Define system boundaries• Variables of interest • Changes and shocks of interest• Interventions of interest• Measures of success or improvement• Timeframe• These decisions will effect the results and
conclusions drawn from any model• Many participatory approaches available for
framing and modelling the food system
Modelling the Food System
• Different perspectives– Actors, activities, outcomes– Social, environmental, economic, political
• Types of models– Fuzzy Cognitive Maps– System Dynamics– Stochastic Models
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Nutrient Quantity and Price
Productivity Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Nutrient Quantity and Price
Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient calsSufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)
currently >2.5 billion
CONSUMERS
PRODUCERS
Insufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billion
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
✓ Adapt to inevitable change
✓ Mitigate further change
So what do we do about it?
=> Do the “doing things” differently …
Improve agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture, fisheries, …
• More varied crops
• Stress-tolerant varieties
• Novel food producing systems
• Improve water mgmt
• Insurance for producers
• Wider range of food stuffs
Range in land use (m2) per kg of edible protein… consider insect protein for better land-use …
De Vries and De Boer 2010; Oonincx and De Boer 2012.
… consider wholly novel foods …
… reduce food losses and waste …~ 30% worldwide
FAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste, 2011
… and reduce over-consumption.
Thank you