SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS … Vol 1-No 3/SYSTEMS... · SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS FOR THE PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY: A SYNTHESIS The PPI

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15J-FOR Journal of Science & Technology for Forest Products and Processes: VOL.1, NO.3, 2011

SPECIAL BIOREFINERY ISSUE

For the pulp and paper industry (PPI), earlier research has shown that there are many technology pathways, both proven and new, available for improvement of energy efficiency and additional sales of (new) products. Some pathways can be implemented only in Kraft mills, e.g., black liquor gasification (BLG), but some can be implemented industry-wide, e.g., carbon capture and storage (CCS). From a future per-spective, it is not clear which pathway is the most profitable or which offers the lowest CO2 emissions due to uncertainties in both the future value of different products and the future development of energy infrastructure. This can lead to decision anxiety, both for the PPI regarding the choice of pathways and for decision-makers creating new policy schemes. This paper presents a synthesis of the authors’ research work which aims to analyze selected future technology pathways for the European PPI, focusing on Kraft pulp mills. The analysis uses a European energy systems perspective and examines the potential for implementation on both mill and industry levels. For the Kraft pulp industry, this work gives new insights into the question of economic performance and the potential for reduction of overall CO2 emissions for different technology pathways, assuming various developments in the future energy market. The work also provides new methodological insights and shows how earlier, detailed research can be lifted to a higher system level to be put in context and to answer research ques-tions on a more aggregated industry level.

JOHANNA JÖNSSON*, THORE BERNTSSON

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS FOR THE PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY: A SYNTHESIS

The PPI is a major player in the European energy system. In Europe, the industrial sector is responsible for approximately 30% of total energy use and approxi-mately 20% of the emissions of fossil CO2. The PPI is the sixth largest industrial energy user and the single largest indus-trial user of biomass, using approximately 102 TWh of electricity and 330 TWh of thermal energy annually, of which 55% originates from biomass, during 2009 [1]. In Sweden and Finland, two of the main pulp and paper producers in Europe, the PPI represents ~50% of industrial energy use. Furthermore, the PPI is an energy-intensive industry sector. This means that the energy use and on-site emissions of CO2 in the PPI are associated with only a few geographical sites, i.e., mills. This means that making strategic changes in the energy system at a limited number of mills could have a significant impact on the Eu-ropean energy system as a whole and con-sequently also on CO2 emissions. In the climate-conscious Europe of today, with

increasing energy prices, the threat of de-pletion of fossil fuels and the introduction of new policy instruments, not least for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, large, strategic changeovers are to be ex-pected for the energy systems within the European PPI in the near future. Already today, the PPI is approaching a transitional situation in which it is no longer producing only pulp and/or paper, but is also mak-ing additional products which can increase both mill profitability and overall mill en-ergy efficiency, thereby transforming mills into so-called biorefineries. These addi-tional products can be electricity, district

INTRODUCTION

JOHANNA JÖNSSONSP Technical Research Institute of SwedenEnergy Technology, Section for Systems AnalysisGöteborg, Sweden*Contact: [email protected]

THORE BERNTSSONChalmers University of TechnologyEnergy and Environment, Heat and Power TechnologyGöteborg, Sweden

NOMENCLATUREBAU

Dimethyl ether

BLG

BLGCC

BLGMF

CCS

CEPI

DME

Confederation of European paper producers

Carbon capture and storage

Black liquor gasifi cation, combined cycleBlack liquor gasifi cation

Business as usual

PPI

RB

Pulp and paper industry

Recovery boiler

Black liquor gasifi cation with motor fuel production

16 J-FOR Journal of Science & Technology for Forest Products and Processes: VOL.1, NO.3, 2011

heating, wood pellets, dried bark chemi-cals, materials, biofuels, and others. An-other alternative is to integrate CCS, which can be done also in combination with in-tegration of other new technologies such as black liquor gasification (BLG). These technologies and system solutions, which aim to transform a mill into one or more kinds of biorefineries, are hereafter col-lectively denoted as technology pathways. These technology pathways are of strate-gic importance and will, if implemented, have a significant effect on a mill’s energy system.

The potential for energy-efficient in-troduction of new technologies and pro-duction of additional value-added products depends both on mill-specific conditions, such as the type of pulping process and its potential for thermal integration, and on geographical conditions, such as the proximity to other large industries and im-portant energy infrastructure (e.g., natu-ral gas pipelines or district heating grids). Research and development projects have identified potentials for energy efficiency and implementation of specific biorefinery concepts within the pulp and paper indus-try. However, most previous studies have been either highly detailed, considering only mill-specific conditions for one mill and not stating anything about the overall potential on a national or European level, or highly aggregated and not considering important mill-specific conditions. Con-sequently, to make the fast-approaching transition of the European PPI as smooth as possible from both an environmen-tal and a business-competitiveness point of view, knowledge of techno-economic potentials within the field needs to be in-creased, and new approaches connecting the results from detailed studies to the ex-isting inventory of European PPI facilities will be necessary.

OBJECTIVEThis paper presents a synthesis of the au-thors’ research work which aims to analyze selected future technology pathways for the European PPI, focusing on Kraft pulp mills (see [2] for results from individual

sub-projects). The analysis uses a Eu-ropean energy systems perspective and analyzes the potential for implementation of different technology pathways on two system levels, the individual mill and the industry. Based on the analysis and its re-sults on the two system levels, conclusions are drawn.

METHODOLOGYFor the European PPI, the work pre-sented in this paper uses a systems-based approach to analyze potential strategic changeovers and their benefits in terms of potential improved economic perfor-mance and potential reduction of overall CO2 emissions. A systems-based approach is essential to avoid sub-optimal solutions when evaluating changes in complex en-ergy systems. In this work, two system levels, the individual mill and the industry, and a surrounding system are used. To evaluate economic performance and CO2 emission balances when making changes to the energy system under study, the methodological approach of system ex-pansion is used. Using system expansion, each flow entering or leaving the system under study is assumed to cause a change in the surrounding system. The flows for the implementation of technology path-ways, as studied in this thesis, are net flows compared to a reference case represent-ing “business as usual”. Consequently, the flows of pulp wood and pulp or paper are cancelled out, leaving only the flows which vary due to the implementation of the technology pathways to be analyzed. More details on these specific assumptions can be found in [2].

MILL-LEVEL ANALYSISAt this systems level, a typical Scandina-vian Kraft pulp mill is analyzed. Table 1 presents an overview of key mill data. The mill is a “model mill” which has been investigated in a number of previous re-search projects [3-5]. In these projects, practical process steam savings of up to 25% were identified as possible through investments in energy efficiency measures such as increased process integration, new, more efficient evaporation, and installa-tion of a shoe press [3]. Because the model mill under study is already self-sufficient in thermal energy from the wood raw mate-rial alone (the mill even has a small steam surplus, which is vented), reducing the process steam demand further will result in a steam surplus. However, a steam sur-plus does not automatically translate into additional revenues or reductions in over-all CO2 emissions if it is not used.

For the mill-level analysis, four tech-nology pathways representing different ways to use, and thereby to benefit from, the potential steam and heat surplus men-tioned earlier are analyzed and compared. The pathways are compared with respect to economic performance and overall CO2 emissions. The four pathways analyzed are:

1. Increased electricity production;2. Extraction of lignin (where lignin is valued as wood fuel or oil);3. Carbon capture and storage; and4. Black liquor gasification in paral-lel to the recovery boiler (as a booster, where the product gas is used either for production of electricity or as a bio-fuel (DME)).

TABLE 1 Key mill data for the model mill (a typical Scandinavian Kraft pulp mill) [6].

Kraft pulp production, design

a Excluding steam conversion to electricity in the back-pressure turbine.

Process thermal energy usea

Electricity use/productionOil use in lime kilnBiomass surplus (bark sold)Steam surplus vented

Steam use (MP/LP)

[ADt/d]GJ/ADt]

[t/h][MW][MW][MW][MW]

100014.3

69/19033/24

22318.2



The four pathways analyzed can, to differ-ent extents, be combined with:

• Export of excess heat for district heating purposes, and• Export of removed bark.

All four technology pathways have been thoroughly analyzed in detail in pre-vious research projects [4, 5, 7-9]. The work presented in this paper builds on this previous work and uses data from these projects to compare the pathways. For the selected pathways, Table 2 provides a short description of how the implementation of each pathway affects a mill’s energy bal-ance. Table 2 also describes how energy-ef-ficiency measures, by reducing the process

steam demand and generating a potential steam surplus, affect the potential for im-plementation, assuming that no external fuel is to be added.

The pathways are compared for dif-ferent future energy market conditions us-ing energy market scenarios. The scenari-os reflect different future energy markets and are generated using a tool to ensure consistency between the individual prices. The main input data to the scenario tool are the CO2 charge and fossil-fuel prices (see [14, 15] for a more detailed descrip-tion of the tool).

Figure 1 shows a schematic represen-tation of the energy market scenarios used in this work. A more specific presentation

of the data used is given in Appendix 1. As can be seen in Fig. 1, four different sce-narios for a possible future energy market are used. The scenarios are combinations of high and low CO2 charges and high and low fossil-fuel prices.

TABLE 2 Effect of the four pathways on the energy balance of a Kraft pulp mill and infl uence of investments in energy-effi ciency measures (reducing the process steam demand) on the potential for energy-effi cient implementation.

Technology pathway

RB:Electricity, [4]

Based on:

Lignin:Wood fuel, Lignin:Oil

Label (used in Figs. 3 and 4)

Increased electricity production

RB:CCS

Effect on mill energy balance if implemented and infl uence of energy-effi ciency measures on the potential for implementation (assuming no external fuel is added).

Extraction of lignin

BLGMF, BLGMF:CCS, BLGCC, BLGCC:CCS

Any potential steam surplus can be used to generate additional electricity in back-pressure or condensing turbines (depending on steam pressure).

CCS

BLGa

If lignin is extracted from the black liquor, the heat content of the liquor will be reduced and, consequently, so will steam production. If no external fuel is to be added, energy-effi ciency measures must be implemented to reduce steam demand so that the (lesser) amount of steam produced is enough to cover the demand.

The black liquor gasifi cation process is exothermal, i.e., steam is produced. The amount of steam produced is, however, less than the amount that would be produced if the same quantity of black liquor were burned in a recovery boiler. If no external fuel is to be added, energy-effi ciency measures must be implemented to reduce steam demand so that the (lesser) amount of steam produced is enough to cover the demand. Can be combined with CCS.

CCS processes have a (large) heat demand. If no additional fuel is to be added, energy-effi ciency measures must be implemented to reduce steam demand and thereby generate a steam surplus large enough to cover the process steam demand of the CO2 capture process.

[4, 7]

[5, 8]

[9-12]

Export of heat for district heating purposes

Export of removed bark

Removed bark can be either exported or burned in the bark boiler. If burned, steam is produced, and thereby more electricity can be produced, or the steam can be used to cover the heat demand of new processes.

High-temperature excess heat (steam), medium-temperature excess heat (~90°C), and low-temperature excess heat (<70°C) can all be used to produce heat for district heating purposes (although the temperature of the low-temperature excess heat needs to be raised fi rst using a heat pump). If energy-effi ciency measures are implemented, this will increase the amount of high-temperature excess heat (steam) but will generally decrease the amount (and temperature) of excess heat at lower temperature levels.

[3, 13]

[6]

a It should be noted that here BLG is assumed to be implemented as a booster, i.e., in parallel to the recovery boiler. See further description in [2, 9].

Fig. 1 - Schematic overview of the energy market scenarios used.


A fundamental assumption for the study presented in this paper is that all CO2 is considered equal. This assumption is based on the fact that CO2 has the same effect on the climate regardless of its ori-gin. Consequently, it is assumed that in fu-ture policy schemes, captured and stored CO2 originating from biomass is granted the same economic compensation as CO2 originating from fossil fuels. The work-flow for the mill-level analysis process is summarized in Fig. 2.

Results – Mill-Level AnalysisThis section presents selected results from the mill-level analysis. Further results, cov-ering more energy market scenarios and presented in more detail, are presented in [2, 13, 16, 17]. Figures 3 and 4 show the results for Scenarios 1 and 4, which can be considered to a certain extent to be the “two extremes” scenarios, represent-ing the combination of a low CO2 charge and low fossil-fuel prices (Scenario 1) and a high CO2 charge and high fossil-fuel

CO2 emissions of different technologies, cost-effective technologies for reducing CO2 emissions can be identified.

In Figs. 3 and 4, each technology pathway is represented by a shaded area in which the larger focal point is the original solution obtained for the technology and the smaller points are solutions obtained in a sensitivity analysis in which different parameters were varied, such as the district heating demand, the level of bio-fuel sup-port, and the annuity factor. A detailed de-scription of the sensitivity analysis for all cases can be found in [2].

Figure 3 shows how the various tech-nology options compare to each other. It can be seen that all solutions reduce over-all CO2 emissions compared to doing nothing (as shown by their location in the two lower quadrants). Figure 3 also shows that the two technology options with the best economic performance are BLG with DME production and lignin extrac-tion if lignin is valued as oil. However, the BLGMF case is very sensitive to changes

prices (Scenario 4) respectively. Detailed results from Figs. 3 and 4 are presented in Appendix 2. For each of the two energy market scenarios, the technology pathways investigated are compared to a baseline case in which no investments are made and the Kraft pulp mill’s energy balance remains unchanged (BAU).The BAU cases are used as a baseline for comparison with each scenario and are represented by the intersection of the x- and y axes in Figs. 3 and 4. Thus, the changes between the BAU values and the different case values are shown on the x- and y-axes (∆ annual net profit and ∆ overall CO2 emissions). In this way, the diagram in each figure is divided into four quadrants. Solutions that are positioned in the lower right quadrant have both higher annual net profit and lower overall CO2 emissions than the BAU case. They are therefore very interesting because they yield an increase in profit for the mill and at the same time reduce overall CO2 emissions. By studying both the economic performance and the overall

Fig. 2 - Workflow for the mill-level analysis; steps are performed in the order 1 to 5.



in the level of bio-fuel support and other parameters, as shown by the large extent of the shaded area. As can be seen in Fig. 3, for Scenario 1 (with a low CO2 charge) not all the technology pathways are profit-able compared to BAU. If the CO2 charge is high, this has a significant effect on the

economic performance of CCS coupled to the recovery boiler or BLG combined with CCS. Consequently, these technolo-gies show a very good economic perfor-mance, as can be seen in Fig. 4. For the BLG cases (BLGMF/CCS and BLGCC/CCS), it should be noted that in Scenario

1, only pure CO2 from the BLG process is captured, whereas in Scenario 4, CO2 is also captured from the recovery boiler flue gases. Therefore, the CO2 emissions asso-ciated with the BLG alternatives in Scenar-io 4 are significantly lower than in Scenario 1. Moreover, if the fossil-fuel price is high, this of course will have a positive effect on the economic performance of lignin ex-traction if lignin is valued as fuel.

A comparison of the solutions for the two scenarios reveals that the new and emerging technologies (i.e., extraction of lignin, CCS, and BLG) are more affected by the change in energy market prices and the level of CO2 charge than by the matu-rity of the technology (increased electric-ity production). The technology pathway associated with the lowest overall CO2 emissions never shows the best economic performance. However, when fossil-fu-el prices and CO2 charge are high (as in Scenario 4), the technology with the best economic performance is associated with lower overall CO2 emissions, in contrast to the case in which fossil-fuel prices and CO2 charge are low (as in Scenario 1).

Main Findings – Mill-Level AnalysisThe bullet list below summarizes the main findings from the mill-level analysis:

• The economic performance of increased electricity production is ro-bust to changing energy market prices;• Assuming that lignin can be val-ued as fuel, lignin extraction shows the most stable economic performance among the emerging technology path-ways (i.e., it is profitable for all the en-ergy market scenarios analyzed and all the sensitivity analyses);• All pathways studied reduce over-all CO2 emissions compared to “doing nothing”. However, the largest reduc-tions are provided by CCS and BLG in combination with electricity produc-tion and/or CCS;• For the conditions assumed, the technologies associated with the low-est CO2 emissions never demonstrate the best economic performance. Nev-ertheless, high CO2 charge, high fossil-

Fig. 4 - Economic performance and overall CO2 emissions for the pathways analyzed given the energy market prices in Scenario 4. Each pathway is represented by a shaded area in which the larger center point represents the optimal solution for that pathway given the energy market scenario prices. The smaller points show how the optimal solution shifts when certain parameters are changed in a sensitivity analysis.

Fig. 3 - Economic performance and overall CO2 emissions for the pathways analyzed, given the energy market prices in Scenario 1. Each pathway is represented by a shaded area in which the larger center point represents the optimal solution for that pathway given the energy market scenario prices. The smaller points show how the optimal solution shifts when certain parameters are changed in a sensitivity analysis.


fuel prices, and the availability of CCS are the parameters which significantly improve the economic performance of the emerging CO2-lean technology pathways.

INDUSTRY-LEVEL ANALYSISFrom the mill-level analysis presented above, it was concluded that if the Euro-pean PPI is to achieve (very) large reduc-tions of overall CO2 emissions, implemen-tation of CCS is a necessity. It is therefore of interest to analyze the potential for industry-wide implementation of CCS in the European PPI. This section presents selected results from a case study which analyzes the potential for CCS in the Eu-ropean PPI. More detailed results and a description of the methodology devel-oped for the case study can be found in [2, 18].

Because CCS, like most capital-inten-sive technologies, benefits from economies of scale, and because CCS is expected to become a commercial technology within two or three years, a selection of large and strongly competitive mills was made in dis-cussion with PPI industry consultants. The production capacity for the mills included in the case study is presented in compari-son to the whole industry in Table 3. It is apparent that most pulp mills are included, whereas many paper mills were excluded

base, which in turn bases its data mainly on the Community Independent Transaction Log (CITL), but also uses the European Pollutant Emission Register and the IEA GHG CO2 Emissions database [20, 21]. The biomass-based CO2 emissions, on the other hand, are not reported centrally, ei-ther for the EU or by CEPI. Therefore, these emissions figures were compiled by screening national statistics, sustainability reports, annual reports, and Web pages for all mills included in this study. As can

(paper mills are usually smaller, have lower energy demand, and have lower on-site CO2 emissions than pulp mills).

Results – Industry LevelOn-site CO2 emissions from the pulp and paper mills included in this study are pre-sented in Table 4. For comparison, total on-site CO2 emissions for all European (CEPI) mills are also included.

The fossil CO2 emissions data were gathered from the Chalmers industry data-

TABLE 3 Production capacity data for the mills analyzed compared to European (CEPI) totals.

Type of milla

a “Kraft” refers to mills that use the Kraft process; they may also include other pulp production, e.g., CTMP. “Mechanical” refers to mills that include some mechanical pulping process (TMP, CTMP, GW/PGW, or RMP). They may also use other pulps in the process, such as RCF/DIP or purchased Kraft pulp. The paper mills have no pulp production from virgin pulp; they use only RCF/DIP, purchased pulp, or both.b Including only Kraft pulp produced on-site. If all pulp produced on-site is included, the fi gures are 10,485 and 15,115 kADt/yr respectively.c Including only mechanical pulp. If both mechanical pulp and RCF/DIP are included, the amount is 17,420 kADt/yr.d The fi gure refers to RCF and DIP.e From CEPI [19] referring to 2007.

Pulp & Paper

Kraft

Market pulp

Mechanical Paper

Mills [No.]Pulp cap. [kADt/yr]Paper cap. [t/yr]CEPI total pulp productione

2310 400b

CEPI total paper productione

Pulp & Paper

11 573

32 45 7613 500b 12 095c 14 775d

16 781 22 132 27 169

14 68614 305 -

-

102 570

Fig. 5 - Geographical distribution of on-site CO2 emissions from the European PPI; the darker the shading, the higher are the emissions [18].



be seen in Table 4, the Kraft mills have the largest on-site CO2 emissions (all >0.5 MtCO2/yr), but these emissions are main-ly biogenic.

Figure 5 shows the geographical dis-tribution of on-site CO2 emissions, both biogenic and fossil, for the European PPI. It is clear that the absolute majority of the emissions are located around the Baltic Sea (in Sweden and Finland). There are also some areas in central Portugal and southern Spain with a high density of CO2 emissions. These areas are also where the absolute majority of the Kraft mills are located.

The potential for CCS does not de-pend only on the amount of on-site CO2 emissions available for capture (as shown in Table 4 and Fig. 5), but also on whether CO2 can be efficiently transported from the mill to suitable storage locations. At present, the necessary infrastructure for both transportation and storage is neither in place nor definitely planned. It is there-fore challenging to predict which mills will have the most favourable conditions for transportation and storage of CO2. Gen-erally, the costs of CO2 transportation and storage can be assumed to be low com-pared to the cost for capture. However,

that assumption is valid only if a large-scale infrastructure serving several emis-sion sources is in place. Consequently, to limit the costs of transportation and stor-age, the CCS infrastructure needs to be carefully planned. This is particularly true when studying CCS in the industrial sector because industrial point sources are usu-ally smaller than point sources in the pow-er and heat sector. One way of limiting the cost of CCS is to create CO2 capture clusters in regions with several emission sources located near each other. In this way, the transportation network can be in-tegrated and thus benefit from economies of scale.

Potential future CO2 capture clusters were generated based on the sum of emis-sions from the PPI (Table 4), other large industrial emitters, and power plants. The gas emissions data for other large indus-tries and power plants are based on data from Chalmers’ industry database [20] and Chalmers’ power-plant database [22]. The geographical positioning of the pulp and paper mills included in this study in relation to the geographical positioning of other energy-intensive industries, power plants, and large capture clusters (two or more industries which together emit >10

MtCO2/yr) is shown in Fig. 6.As can be seen in Fig. 6, there is a

mismatch between where the on-site emis-sions from the PPI are located and where the large capture clusters, and therefore most likely also the future CO2 transporta-tion infrastructure, are located. Most of the large emitting Kraft pulp and paper mills are located on the eastern coast of Swe-den and in Finland, far away from most of the large fossil CO2 capture clusters cre-ated by other energy-intensive industries and power plants. The most beneficial geographical positions for transportation and storage of CO2 are occupied by paper mills in central Europe; they have much smaller on-site emissions than the Kraft PPI, but, as can be seen in Fig. 6, they are located in or near the largest fossil CO2 capture clusters created by other energy-intensive industries and power plants, and they are also located near potential storage sites in the North Sea.

Main Findings – Industry-Level AnalysisThe bullet list below summarizes the main findings from the industry-level analysis:

• The Kraft PPI has the largest CO2 emissions and is therefore best

TABLE 4 CO2 emissions for the mills included in the analysis compared to CEPI total emissions.

Type of mill

a For two mills, no data could be found in either E-PRTR registers or Web pages.b For six mills, no data could be found in either E-PRTR registers or Web pages.c From CEPI [19] referring to 2006.d Based on the fi gures for biomass utilization as part of the primary energy demand from CEPI [19] and calculated assuming CO2 emissions of 346 kg/MWh.e The reason why the share of fossil emissions included is smaller than the share of biomass-based emissions is that many small South European paper mills, which use mainly fossil fuels for their energy needs, were excluded from the study be-cause of their small size (only paper mills with a production capacity of >200 kt paper/yr were included). Excluding these small mills is not a problem because they are not likely to be implementing carbon capture due to their relatively small on-site emissions.

Pulp & Paper

Kraft

Market pulp

Mechanical Paper

Mills [No.]Fossil CO2 [kt/yr]Biogenic CO2 [kt/yr]Total CO2 [kt/yr]

23

1 425

CEPI total fossilc

Pulp & Paper

25 282

32 43a 70b

3 246 4 759 9 42032 052 5 524 2 217

10 28335 298

39,605

Share of CEPI emissions[%]

CEPI total biogenicd

23 85711 637

66,113

78%96%48%e


suited for CO2 capture; however, the paper mills in central Europe are best suited geographically for transporta-tion and storage of CO2;• If large amounts of CO2 are to be captured, biogenic CO2 must be in-cluded in future capture schemes, and transportation infrastructure must also be built for small capture clusters;• For the European PPI, CCS has an up-hill road to travel to become a viable, large-scale alternative for reduc-tion of CO2 emissions;• If CCS is implemented, up to ~60 MtCO2/yr can be captured (this is more than the annual emissions of fossil CO2 in Sweden!).

MAIN FINDINGSThis paper presents a synthesis of the au-thors’ research work which aims to ana-lyze selected future technology pathways for the European PPI, focusing on Kraft pulp mills. The pathways studied are stra-tegic in nature and will, if implemented, have a significant impact on a mill’s energy system. The work was performed on two systems levels, the individual mill and the industry, and included development of a systematic methodology. For the Kraft pulp industry, the work gives new insights into the question of economic perfor-mance and potential for reduction of the overall CO2 emissions by various technol-ogy pathways, assuming various develop-ments in the future energy market.

The work summarized in this paper also provides new methodological insights and shows how earlier, detailed research can be lifted to a higher system level to be put into context and to answer research and development challenges on a more ag-gregated industry level; the case of CCS implementation in the European PPI is used as an illustrative example. Previous research has shown than the chemical absorption-based carbon capture process can be thermally integrated into Kraft mills in an energy-efficient way [5, 8]. Furthermore, the mill-level analysis pre-sented in this paper explains that, com-pared to other alternatives for harness-

European PPI, CCS has an up-hill road to travel to become a viable, large-scale alter-native for reduction of CO2 emissions.

COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER WORKThe authors would like to stress the im-portance of considering the uncertainty of the future energy market. As could be seen in the mill-level analysis, some tech-nologies exhibit highly diverse economic performance for different assumptions regarding the future energy market. The authors find that it is important to illus-trate the span of possible outcomes in a systematic way so that decision-makers and policy-makers can make informed de-cisions. Furthermore, improving the avail-ability (and accuracy) of public European

ing surplus steam, CCS provides much larger reductions in overall CO2 emis-sions and is economically comparable to more proven technology alternatives—such as increased electricity production in condensing turbines—if the CO2 charge is high. Therefore, on the basis of a mill-level analysis alone, CCS seems to be a very promising option for the European PPI. However, when the potential for industry-wide CCS implementation in the European PPI is examined, as in the in-dustry-level analysis presented above, it is apparent that there is a mismatch between where the PPI’s CO2 emissions are located and where the largest emission sources in Europe (and therefore probably the future infrastructure for transportation of CO2) are located. Therefore, for the

Fig. 6 - Geographical distribution of pulp and paper mills emitting >0.1 Mt CO2/yr in relation to other large industrial point sources and power plants emitting >0.5 Mt CO2/yr. Possible capture cluster areas are represented by purple-shaded squares (150x150 km). The PPI is represented by coloured squares, and the other heavy industries and power plants are represented by black symbols (squares, circles, and triangles). The red circles show where the majority of the PPI’s emissions are located (see Fig. 5).



data and statistics is a key factor if good industry-level analyses for the European PPI are to be performed.

The methodology developed by the authors and used in this work could just as well be applied to other technologies in-fluenced by external geographical factors, e.g., district heating, or to other industrial sectors such as the oil refinery industry. Furthermore, the work presented in this

paper focuses on the integration of tech-nology pathways into existing European (Kraft pulp) mills. Relative to the PPI in China and South America, the European mills are rather old and small. It would be interesting to study how the size and age of mills affect the economic performance and the potential for reduction of overall CO2 emissions for the pathways studied here.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis paper presents the main findings from a PhD project. The detailed work on which this paper is based is described in [2]. This research was carried out un-der the auspices of the Energy Systems Programme, which is primarily financed by the Swedish Energy Agency. The work was co-funded by the Södra Foundation for Research, Development, and Educa-tion.

REFERENCESCEPI, Key Statistics 2010, “European Pulp and Paper Industry”. Available at www.cepi.org (2011).Jönsson, J., “Analysing Different Technology Pathways for the Pulp and Paper Industry in a European Energy Systems Perspective,” Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden (2011).Axelsson, E., Olsson, M.R., and Berntsson, T., “Heat Integration Opportunities in Average Scandinavian Kraft Pulp Mills: Pinch Analyses of Model Mills”, Nordic Pulp and Paper Research Journal, 21(4):466-475 (2006).Olsson, M.R., Axelsson, E., and Berntsson, T., “Exporting Lignin or Power from Heat-Integrated Kraft Pulp Mills: A Techno-Economic Comparison Using Model Mills”, Nordic Pulp and Paper Research Journal, 21(4):476-484 (2006).Hektor, E. and Berntsson, T., “Future CO2 Removal from Pulp Mills—Process Integration Consequences, Energy Conversion, and Management”, 48(11):3025-3033 (2007).STFI-Packforsk, FRAM Final report, “Application Area: Model Mills and System Analysis”, in FRAM Report No. 70 (2005).Axelsson, E., Olsson, M.R., and Berntsson, T., “Increased Capacity in Kraft Pulp Mills: Lignin Separation and Reduced Steam Demand Compared with Recovery Boiler Upgrade”, Nordic Pulp and Paper Research Journal, 21(4):485-492 (2006).

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

APPENDIX 1 Key data for the four energy market scenarios used for the average year, 2030.

Scenario input data

Fossil-fuel price levela

3

CO2 charge level

1

Low

2

a Oil prices: Low: 74 USD/barrel, High: 126 USD/barrel. b In past years, the prices of wood by-products and chips have been very similar.

4

Resulting prices and values of policy instruments [€/MWh]

Resulting marginal/alternative technologies and their CO2 emissions [kg/MWh]

CO2 charge [€/tonne CO2]

Green electricity policy instrument [€/MWh]

Electricity DME

Bark/by-products/wood chipsb

Heavy fuel oil (incl. CO2)

District heatingBio-fuel policy instrument

Electricity (marginal production of electricity)Biomass (marginal user of biomass)District heating production(alternative heat supply technology)Transportation (alternative transportation technology)

Low35

26

LowHigh109

26

HighLow35

26

HighHigh109

26

6857

2745

9077

5267

7488

3067

98109

5689

1946 67

2720

5641

49

679(CP)227

(CP/DME)242

(CCHP/GB)273

(Diesel)

129(CP CCS)

244(CP/DME)

468(CCHP/GB)

273(Diesel)

679(CP)227

(CP/DME)242

(CCHP/GB)273

(Diesel)

129(CP CCS)

244(CP/DME)

468(CCHP/GB)

273(Diesel)

APPENDIX 2 Detailed Results for Figs. 3 and 4.

Scenario 1

Pulp producedElectricity produced

BLGMF:CCS1000

District heating

DME producedBark sold

Lignin extractedCO2 captured by CCS

Oil purchased

Electricity consumed

[ADt/d][GWh/yr]

[GWh/yr] [GWh/yr]

[GWh/yr] [GWh/yr] [ktonnes/yr]

[GWh/yr]

[GWh/yr]

RB:Electricity

BLGCC:CCS

Lignin:Wood fuel

Lignin:Oil

RB:CCS

146

48572

166-

145

204

345

1000311

-242

166-

n/a

172

265

1000385

-242

166-

215

197

344

1000150

-242

-532n/a

172

265

1000160

-20

-667n/a

172

267

1000262

-163

--

567

172

323

Scenario 4

Pulp producedElectricity produced

BLGMF:CCS1000

District heating

DME produced

Bark sold

Lignin extractedCO2 captured by CCS

Oil purchased

Electricity consumed

[ADt/d][GWh/yr] [GWh/yr]

[GWh/yr]

[GWh/yr] [GWh/yr] [ktonnes/yr]

[GWh/yr]

[GWh/yr]

RB:Electricity

BLGCC:CCS

Lignin:Wood fuel

Lignin:Oil

RB:CCS

137485

-

264-

422

204

448

1000311

-

242

264-

n/a

172

284

1000400

-

3

264-

n/a

197

405

1000150

-

242

264532n/a

172

344

1000119

-

-

264804n/a

172

347

1000286

-

-

264-

603

172

353


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SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS … Vol 1-No 3/SYSTEMS... · SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS FOR THE PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY: A SYNTHESIS The PPI

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