System Dynamics Group Using Simulation-Based Learning Environments to Build Capacity for Managing Complexity Presented by: Babak Bahaddin SUNY University.

System Dynamics Group

Using Simulation-Based Learning Environments to Build Capacity

for Managing Complexity

Presented by: Babak BahaddinSUNY University at Albany

April 2015

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1. SBLEs

• CoastalProtectSim Model

• ReThink Model

The Context

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• A simulation-based learning environment is a package of materials and scaffolded exercises designed around a simulation model that can be used by learners with limited external facilitation.

• This is what we are talking about.

SBLE

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Last Colloquium I talked about SBLEs

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2) What we’ve done and what we’ll do• Classroom activity (published)• Workshop design for managers (the future)

3) NSF call• Our team has sent a proposal for the CyberSEES program

4) Our proposal has three objectives:• Helping the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) through the workshops• Evaluating the participant’s progress, in terms of managing complexities• Identifying a reusable framework for embedding domain knowledge with

simulation techs.

The Coastal Protection Problem

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• Aims to advance interdisciplinary research in which the science and

engineering of sustainability are enabled by new advances in computing, and in which computational innovation is grounded in the context of sustainability problems.

• One component of the National Science Foundation's Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (SEES) activities

• Full Proposal Deadline: February 24, 2015

Cyber-Innovation for Sustainability Science and Engineering (CyberSEES)

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USACE has agreed to facilitate meetings with three coastal communities where we can test our SBLE and workshop model

Avalon: one of the vulnerable places along the NJ coastline.

Corps has good relationship with Avalon’s mayor/local emergency response chief.

Workshop model:1 day: simulator, causal mapping, problem elicitation, BOTs, basic structure elicitation

Workshop in Avalon, NJ

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System Dynamics Group

Coastal Protect Sim Model Overview

(Pointe Claire Case)Michael Deegan

U.S. Army Corps of EngineersSeptember 30, 2014

9

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Coastal Protect:

10

Land Development

developmentdensity

newdevelopment

+

NaturalResources

resourcedecay

time toregenerate

-

time todecay

-

environmentaldecay from

development effect

-

developmentpressure for

tourism

+

+

NaturalResourcesin Decay

resourceregeneration

relocation

Protection in Planning

Protection in Development

Protection from MitigationProjects

planscompleted

projectimplementation

protectionrequested

Desired change inprotection with current

resources

taxes andrevenues fromdeveloped land

+

communitydemand for

new protection

ability to payfor desiredprotection

+

+

protectionfrom natural

resources

perceived protectionfrom naturalresources and

mitigation projects

protection topopulationat risk ratio

new developmentfrom perceived

risk effect

relocation fromperceived risk

effect

+

change inperceivedprotection

developmentto carrying

capacity ratio

+

projects indecay

regenerationtime from

developmenteffect

+

+

-

+

+

riskperception

-

-

level ofprotection

+

+

+

+

+

perceivedfraction

protected

+

taxrevenue

+

naturalprotection effectfrom open space

++

perceivedprotection +

If you build it, theywill come

R

Natural BarrierProtection

B

B

Protecting theCommunity

R

tourism pressure onland development

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Where is Pointe Claire?

The case is set in the Pointe Claire region on the Gulf Coast of the United States where community leaders are poised to engage the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in a long range planning effort.

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12

Control Panel: Policies, Scenarios, and Outputs

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13

Problem Statement: Revenues and Expenditures

•If we continue the path set forth by our current policies, development in this community will be unsustainable.

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14

Policies you can change

• Build Coastal Protection Mitigation Projects

• Enforce Stricter Building Codes

• Buyout properties in the floodplain

• Restrict zoning on future development

• Renourish beaches to maintain natural barriers

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Evaluation?

Why do we need to evaluate our work?

Jay Forrester: Learning and creation of new knowledge about complex systems is one of the main goals of system dynamics

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Some slides from reza

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System Dynamics Group

System Dynamics Group

• Semi-structured interviews to measure the prior knowledge of participating experts on topics such as causal impact of policy option

• Different fields• A baseline in critical areas

Pre-test

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• Questionnaires• Response efficacy

• Self-efficacy

• Response cost

Pre-test

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• Scaffolded exercise (graphs over time)

• Written products (causal relationship, tradeoffs, risk perception)

• SBLE: testing their hypothesis

Treatment

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• Interview (learning, satisfaction, change in perception

• Measures are self-reports

• Qualitative and objective analysis on baseline

Post-test

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• NASPAA’s 2015 Student Simulation Competition, held February 28, 2015, was a resounding success! 181 students from 93 schools participated at 5 regional sites.

• Employed the ReThink Model.

NASPAA Student Competition

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System Dynamics Group

• System Modelers: Jack Homer, Gary Hirsch, Bobby Milstein, Laura Landy, Elliot Fisher, John Sterman, Christina Ingersoll, Leigh Scherrer

• Science Advisors: Elliot Fisher (chair) and ~10 others

• Financial Sponsors: This work was sponsored by investments from the Fannie E. Rippel Foundation and California HealthCare Foundation, along with a variety of organizational allies and scores of collaborators across the country.

Developers of the ReThink Health Model

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Prior to the event• Each student should have chosen 7 policies within the

given series of policies in public health

• Reading instructions about logistics, interface and material

Individual Self-Test

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Prior to the event• Choosing a name for their team

• Gathering the needed material

Group Self-Test

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• In their group, they will design a package of health policy and finance options.

• Describing the rationale• Impact on each of the five criteria• Pitfalls

Task 1

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• Using simulator• Testing their first assumptions• Trying to improve their policy package• Describing the learning process• How the elements worked synergistically• Pitfalls

Task 2

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• Stakeholder analysis• Assigning stakeholder roles• Criticizing task two solution• Modifying task two solution to meet stakeholder

needs

Task 3

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• Give a 15 minute presentation of their final solution to their peers and a judge

• Answering their questions

Task 4