Syria: Success story of whate self-sufficiency

Successful story of Syrian self-sufficiency in wheat

International Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas24th to 26th of June, Cairo, Egypt

Dr. Haitham Al Ashkar

Syrian Arab Republic

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contentsThe

importance of agriculture

Food security and poverty in

Syria

Agricultural natural

resources

Wheat importance

and agricultural

policy

Lessons learned

2

The importance of agricultural sector in the national economy

Over the last decade, the

contribution to the national GDP ranged between

16% and 24%

to the total labor force about 20% ,

to the total trade about

14%.

Provides raw materials to

agro-industry business

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Agriculture 24.1 19.7 17.5 18.7 16.2 19.7

Building & Construction 4.3 4.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.3

Finance & Insurance 4.7 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.6

Government Services 10.6 12.9 12.5 13.2 14.0 15.0

Mining & Manufacturing 23.7 23.3 23.2 22.6 24.5 22.4

Transport & Communication 11.3 11.9 12.5 12.3 12.9 11.8

Wholesale & Retail Trade 18.3 19.5 21.6 20.8 20.1 17.3

other sectors 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.84

Contribution of the economic sectors of the national economy to Gross Domestic Products at fixed prices between 2006 and 2011 (%)

24.1 16.2

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Land use

cultiva

ble,

6.

068 (

33%)

investe

d area

5.

7

milli

on

hectares,

94%

of c

ultiva

ble la

nd,

24% irrigate

d,

56% rai

n-fe

d la

nd,

20% fall

ow la

nd.

20

% uncultivable

44%

past

ures

and

ste

ppes

3%

f

orests

5

Total Area 18.5 M.ha

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Agro ecological zones in Syria

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Water resources • Syria is one of the water-poor countries , like some other

countries in the region,• Tenth 5-year plan showed that there is an average annual

water shortage of /1.727/ billion cubic meters and it reached 3.125 billion cubic meters in 2009

• That shortage is a result of:• frequent drought seasons,• irrational use of water, at farm level in particular,• lack of incentives to reduce water consumption,• high prices for intensive water-use crops, such as cotton and

sugar beet.

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Water resources cont.

• These factors caused: • deeper water table of ground water,• drying-up of some springs, • Reducing the flaw of some rivers,• Exposing some water resources to various levels of pollution.

• It is estimated that the water use is about 18 billion M3 , And average water available is 15 billion M3

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Year irrigated from surface water irrigated from wells

2005 560 865

2006 551 851

2007 583 813

2008 595 761

2009 583 656

2010 614 727

2011 647 752

Table : evolution of irrigated areas distributed by irrigation sources between 2005 and 2011 (thousand hectares)

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Food security in Syria

• The UN/FAO World Food Summit (Rome 1996) defined

food security and its associated dimensions as follows:

“all people, at all times, have physical, social, and

economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to

meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an

active and healthy life”.

Dimensions of food security: Availability, Access, Stability,

Utilization.

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Food security Dimensions • Food Availability

• self-sufficient in most of the agricultural products, and exports many of Agr. products

• wheat, legumes, vegetables, fruits, olives and olive oil, and some animal products.

• BUT, deficit in sugar and maize, a relatively slight shortage in some dairy products, meat, vegetable oils, and barley.

• Accessibility• quota of 1 kg sugar and 0.5 kg rice per capita per month at

subsidized prices.• Opened quantity of Bread is also offered at a very subsidized

price that represents only 15-20% of production cost. 11

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• Stability • To avoid the risk of food shortage, especially wheat, the

Government holds sufficient stocks that can feed the Syrian people for more than one year, which guarantees avoiding chocks of wheat availability and price volatility.

• Food Utilization• Average per capita calorie intake increased from about 3000

kcal/day in 2000 to more than 3200 kcal /day in recent years, more than 85% from vegetal sources.

• Per capita daily protein consumption increased from 74.8 to 86.7 grams/day with a significant increase of vegetal protein share.

• Per capita FAT consumption has declined from 104.5 grams /day in 2000 to 96 g / day in 2004, while the share of fat of plant sources reached 76% .

In 2010, The Syrian Government adopted a National Program for Food Security

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Food security Dimensions cont.

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ItemSelf-sufficiency

ratio Item Self-sufficiency ratio

Wheat 98 Olive 558

Lentils 173 Almonds 101

Tomato 147 Eggs 122.7

Potato 109 red meat 109

Barley 62.5 Milk 295

Maize 11.6

Table: The average Self-Sufficiency Ratio between 2005 and 2010 (%)

Self Sufficiency in Wheat

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The challenge and coping strategy • Syria has experienced difficulties in providing sufficient

flour to the Syrian citizens in the late 80s of the last century.

• To avoid that, a decision has been made at a high political level, according to which the country must produce its needs from wheat and the Government should insure the availability of all requirements at due time and reasonable prices to implement the decision.

• Accordingly, all related ministries and interested parties have prepared plans to implement the decision.

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The Importance of Wheat

• The most important item of food basket In 2011,

• wheat made up 35% of the cropped area• 28% of the crop production• 20% of the value of crop production• 14% of the value of agricultural production• • To avoid the risk of drought, about 50% of wheat

cultivated in irrigated area. 16

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Wheat areaFigure : evolution of area under wheat from 1990 and 2011 by production system (thousand hectare)

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1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Irrigated Rainfed

1066

274

857 755

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Figure: evolution of wheat production from 1990 and 2011 by production system (tones)

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1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

rain-fed irrigated

44%

92%

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Figure: evolution of wheat productivity from 1990 and 2011 by production system (ton/ha)

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1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

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3.5

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4.5

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total irrigated rain-fed

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Wheat policies Planning policy

Input and credit policies

Irrigation policy

Plant protection policy

Agricultural research and extension policies

MAAR investment budget policy

Marketing and price policies

Trade policy20

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Planning policy

• Top bottom initiative of the Annual Agricultural Production Plan

• Local discussion of the Plan

• Bottom top process of formulation the Plan

• Endorsement of the Plan• Agricultural license

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Input and credit policyCredit policy, Agricultural Cooperative Bank, ACB• Subsidized interest rate, 6% -8% Cash loans per hectare• SP15000 from wells, • 11000 from surface water,• 2500 rain-fed

• In-kind• Seeds • 250 kg/ha for irrigated areas from wells and surface water resources, • 200 kg/ha in the rain-fed areas in zone1 • 150 kg/ha in the rain-fed areas in zone 2.

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Fertilizers

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Fertilizer irrigatedRain-fed

Zone1 Zone2

N 141 70 51

P2O5 65 30 30

K2O 90 35 -

Table: fertilizers offered by ACB according to the table of requirement (kg pure unit/ha)

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Irrigation Policies The Future vision indicates that “Water security is an essential tool to

achieve sustainable development”.

The Tenth Five-Year Plan adopted policies and methods related to

management and investment of water resources through:

enhancing water use efficiency, and preservation

Take all measures to control water pollution and find appropriate solutions.

Provide efficient institutional and legal frameworks and adequate financial

resources.

Enable relevant institutions to manage water resources in an integrated

manner covering real needs of rural communities, especially in remote and

poor areas, through an effective, rational and sustainable way.

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Water policies cont. Engage economic planning of resource management and planning of

available water resources, as well as rationalize the use and development of non-traditional sources of water to achieve the utmost possible use of water.

Enhance awareness; disseminate information and education, support the role of the private sector, community institutions, and water users in controlling and managing water resources.

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Irrigation PoliciesConversion from traditional irrigation to modern irrigation

techniques:establishing, in the Ministry of Agricultural and Agrarian

Reform, the National Fund for Conversion to Modern Irrigation,

The capital of the fund is SP 52 Billion. It provides farmers with long term loans at 4% interest

rate. Moreover, farmers are exempted from 50% of the total

loan.The converted area was about 23% of the total irrigated

area. 26

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Research and extension policies

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The research programs resulted in finding out:

irrigated durum wheat variety, sham7, 7.445 T/ha,

Rain-fed durum wheat, zon1, Bohoth 7, 4.843 T/ha

Irrigated soft wheat, sham8, 9 T/h

Rain-fed soft wheat, zone1, variety, Golan2, 4.576 T/h

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Research and extension cont.

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In order to transfer the findings of the research to the farm field a specific extension program is delivered to wheat farmers to get the best results of wheat in terms of quantity and quality.

Fertilizers 18%

Crop management 23%

Irrigation 27%

Improved varieties 32%

the impact of agricultural technologies on the increase of wheat productivity

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Year soft wheat durum wheat

2002 10.8 11.8

2003 10.8 11.8

2004 10.8 11.8

2005 10.8 11.8

2006 10.8 11.8

2007 10.8 11.8

2008 16.5 17

2009 19.5 20

2010 20 20.5

2011 21 21.5

2012 21.5 22

2013 36 37

Table: Evolution of official wheat prices SP/kg

Marketing and price policies

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312002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Local price world price

US$/T

Figure: Evolution of local and international prices of soft wheat

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The impact of Agricultural Policies was positive on the increase of wheat production, due to the development of both horizontal and vertical dimensions,

between 1990 and 2012:• The production increased by 74%.

• 74% due to improving in productivity • 26% due to the expansion in area

• Statistics shows that the average ration of cultivated area to planed area of wheat between 1996 and 2013 is 104%,

• the highest was 124%, in 2001, and the lowest was 82%, in 2013. 32

Policy impacts analysis

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Figure: Planed and executed area of wheat between 1996 and 2013 (ha)

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1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

planned area executed area

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Positive Impacts of Agricultural Policies

Increasing cultivated land in both systems, rain-fed and

irrigated,

Achieving self sufficiency in many agricultural products

Increasing per capita calories intake.

Increasing the aggregate value of the agricultural production

Increasing the raw and processed agricultural exports share of

the total exports.

Developing rural infrastructure such as agricultural roads,

electricity, water, communication, storage, transport, etc.)34

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Negative Impacts of the Agricultural Policies

Deteriorate soil fertility, and contamination of soil and water due to excessive use of water .

Shortage of water supply, particularly underground water due to random wells drilling and irrational water use.

Holding fragmentation impeded agricultural mechanization, due to heritage system and absence of joint stock investment systems.

Marketing, export and processing activities do not go in line with the agricultural production increase

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Challenges Facing Agriculture

Limitation of natural and agricultural resources and the impacts of environmental and climatic conditions.

High population growth and increased agricultural labor force.Holding fragmentation.Lack of financial resources and limited investments due to the

uncertainty of the agricultural investment.Distribution of responsibility of agriculture managment

amongst different ministriesInternational economic changes (trade liberalization, trade

agreements, and tariff concessions).Agricultural subsidies of rich countries and strong

competition. Macro policies problems such as fiscal and financial policies,

interest and exchange rates, pricing, and subsidies. 36

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Lessons learned • Seeking to achieve a goal at national level entails a strong political

well, which is the case of achieving self-sufficiency in wheat. • Sharing the interest with all stakeholders and beneficiaries and make

them part of the process, which is the case in the preparation of Annual Agricultural Production Plan.

• All requirements, including cash, should be made available at due time and at reasonable price, which is the case when the Government gives the responsibility to Agricultural Cooperative Bank to provide farmers with cash and in-kind loans at low interest rate.

• Insure that the implementation of the plan goes well, where a strong technical team should be recruited to monitor and follow up the implementation of the plan. Moreover, the team should be ready to intervene at due time, this is the case when all technical teams at the MAAR are ready to intervene when needed. 37

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• It is essential to assure farmers that the activity that you are encouraging them to perform is profitable; the case when the Government announces the price of wheat prior of the planting season;

• In long term plans, adequate budget to fund research and extension, protection plant should be secured; the case when the Government allocates adequate money in the current and investment budget to fund the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform programs.

• A clear vision and goals with executive matrix should be announced, this is the case when the Government adopted National Program for Food Security.

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Lessons learned cont.

Thanks for listening Questions, comments and suggestions are welcome