Synthesis report re sakss-june 2012

Presented at the ReSAKSS Stakeholder Workshop on

Strategic Analysis to inform Agricultural Policy11th June, 2012

WILFRED NYANGENA

Synthesis Report on Climate Change, Agriculture and food Security in the Comesa

Region: Links between research and policy

Presentation Outline

Background Study objectives State of climate change knowledge within COMESA Responding to climate change for food and livelihood

security: Success Stories Summary, conclusion and policy implications

Background (1)

Climate change poses a serious risk to agricultural production and food security in Africa.

In SSA, negative impacts are expected from projected warming and rainfall deficits. These effects are likely to be more serious due to: Heavy dependence of the region on agriculture & natural

resources Over-reliance on rain-fed agriculture Weak capacity to adapt to climate change The poor and marginalized groups are likely to suffer

more.

Background (2) Predicted the negative impacts of climate change:

Decline in crop yields leading to food insecurity by as much as 50% due to reduced growing seasons and increased temperatures (IPCC)

Increase in crop and livestock pests and diseases

Increase in vector borne diseases such as Rift Valley fever, and declining levels of fresh water bodies

This could jeopardize achievement developmental of targets

Many policies, programmes & projects are being implemented to respond to anticipated CC effects. Whether they are supported by scientific evidence remains unclear

Study Objectives Review literature on scientific research on climate change in the

COMESA region

Review policies, programmes & projects being implemented and evaluate how far they are informed by scientific evidence

Draft a synthesis Report to inform researchers, policy makers, RECs and other stakeholders. Special focus is paid to: Climate science evidence, its accuracy and suitability for the

region. Likely impacts of CC on food production systems and food

security. Suggestions on appropriate adaptation practices based on existing

evidence.

Research Method(s)

In developing this synthesis we did a literature search of several peer reviewed articles, books, case studies on food security and climate change in the region.

A summary of the area of coverage, issues, context, theme is provided in the appendix of the main report.

The case studies enabled us to focus on a specific project and its context.

The whole approach produced a richer understanding of issues and dynamics around food security and climate change.

State of CC knowledge in the COMESA region

Climate Science and Trends: GHGs emissions approaching upper limit of the IPCC projected

range Increased frequency of weather extremes About 600 million people in the region could face hunger and

additional agricultural crop losses of an estimated $ 26 billion by 2060 (IPCC 2007).

But too little is understood about the African climate, its drivers and their links to global warming

Obvious implication is that we cannot be too confident about the major climate trends for the continent and even individual countries.


The challenges with using regional models as PRECIS & GCM:

Only in few locations is the local data available in sufficient quality and quantity

lack of regular, detailed information on the African weather

Vast areas remain unmonitored which makes it very difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy


Social, Economic and Environmental Disruption: Agriculture and food security will be greatly affected by climate

change in SSA African countries may lose up to 47% of their agricultural revenue

because of global warming Hydrological systems & water resources will also be negatively

impacted But all studies reviewed have some glaring weaknesses or omissions:

Most analyze climate change impacts on African agriculture in isolation . They disregard how changes in the global demand and supply patterns will affect the production and profitability of agricultural systems.

There’s little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods.

Thus policy makers are not able to determine gainers & losers, and the magnitudes of gains or lose

Adaptation to climate change in the COMESA region

Many initiatives have attempted: Livelihood diversification Migration from affected areas Development & adoption of appropriate technologies/innovations Investment in infrastructure & public welfare Use of indigenous knowledge Climate Smart Agriculture→which has its serious limitations

Adaptation to climate change has been hampered by: Lack of awareness, induced by endemic poverty levels Limited and/or lacking policy which inhibit innovative adaptation

of climate change technologies. Lack of pool of resources on which farmers can rely in

determining the right adaptation strategies Lack of financial capital among already impoverished farmers

The region, thus, needs innovative and proactive adaptation strategies to empower the communities

Regional CC Adaptation Initiatives Within EAC→ Kenya has NCCRS; the rest have NAPAS/NAMAS EAC has formulated CC Policy COMESA has CC initiative that seeks to address CC & to build

economic & social resilience There is little coordination of the regional initiatives to avoid

overlaps Also, it is not clear to what extent these initiatives are informed by

science In 2011,EAC-COMESA-SADC Tripartite launched a five-year

climate change strategy to harmonize climate change programs by the three regional blocs for successful adaptation and mitigation actions

CC Mitigation in the COMESA region A number of mitigation options have been identified:

Carbon trading platforms→ unfortunately SSA is marginalized in carbon markets

CDM projects which have mainly targeted the energy sector, overlooking agriculture

The mitigation potential of the agricultural sector cannot be fully exploited under the CDM because: Uncertainties in measurement of carbon sequestration potential and

reduction of GHG emissions has made it difficult for agricultural projects to be included under CDM

WB and FAO have been at the forefront in promoting carbon trading initiatives in the agriculture sector

CC Mitigation in the COMESA region…..

WB/FAO have encouraged farmers to utilize agricultural practices that maximize carbon stored in their fields

The logic is that this carbon can then be measured, valued and traded on the market

Creation of soil carbon credit markets is believed would increase small-farm productivity and mobilize private sector involvement in the sector

However, participating in the carbon markets poses huge challenges to smallholder farmers:

Huge costs involved in measurement and verification of the change in carbon emissions

Most farmers have < 1 ha farmlands hence the amount of money they would receive from the carbon sequestered/year is likely to be very minute

Technologies that increase soil carbon storage is quite costly Agricultural carbon sequestration from soil requires long term commitment

and involve binding farmers to certain types of agricultural practices and land use patterns

Smallholders could lack requisite information

Climate financing in the COMESA region

Climate adaptation and mitigation are expensive activities to finance

CDM has been one of the major sources of carbon financing but many countries in the region have been unable to take full advantage of it due to: Complex and stringent procedure to safeguard the integrity of the emission

reduction credits The fact that Africa is a relatively small global player in terms of emission

reduction

Besides CDM, voluntary markets are evolving rather rapidly but quantitative data is lacking

Basically, climate change adaptation or mitigation financing in the region remains low, and in some cases biased towards specific projects, mainly in the energy sector

Responding to CC for food and livelihood security: Case Studies

Woodlot management in Makete District, Tanzania Before the project there was unsustainable land use which led to

ecological degradation and limited farm productivity. Tanzania government and local communities, supported by

development partners introduced woodlot management to improve smallholder livelihoods.

User groups were assisted to develop their own woodlot operational plans and rules, in setting rates and prices for products and in determining how surplus income would be shared or spent.

Results: Increased area under trees as well as the density of cover. Those working in woodland management and marketing of wood products

benefited from research, gaining knowledge in species selection, land preparation, field planting and spacing, woodlot management, and marketing channels for wood products.

Increased community income Makete District government achieved a 64% increase in council revenue

through timber sales royalties

Case Studies…..

Feed-in tariffs in Kenya Both biomass and petroleum are unsustainable owing to

exhaustibility of biomass sources and high and unstable oil prices.

The Kenyan government realized the potential of renewable energy

In 2008 the government introduced feed-in tariffs Feed-in tariff is a policy instrument that compels the national

grid operator to purchase electricity from renewable energy sources at a pre-determined price which is attractive enough for new investments in the renewable energy sector

It is expected that it will enhance production of renewable energy; create employment and enhance poverty alleviation in rural areas; and increase income opportunities for business development.

Summary and Conclusion (1) Climate change is real and its effects are predicted to worsen, with

serious implications on food security, incomes and livelihood systems.

Most analyses have been done on large scales and this is likely to hide the actual micro-level implications.

It’s also evident that there are very few peer reviewed papers by African scientists on practically all aspects of climate change Involvement of more foreign experts in analysis is perhaps an

indication that either local capacity is lacking or there are no research funds or interest from local institutions.

There is need to build a broad consensus now through credible climate change science covering various regions of Africa in better detail.

Summary and Conclusion (2) Governments have reacted by formulating policies and strategies to

deal with climate change, both at national and regional levels. Main challenge lies in: Implementation of the identified priorities, a step that remains largely unfulfilled

due to financial, technical and human capacity constraints Priority identification which may not be well embedded on science given the

paucity of precise information on climate change at local scales.

Despite its importance, little effort has been made to incorporate local knowledge into formal climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies

No technological “silver bullet” that will quickly and painlessly transform contemporary SSA Long term targets for emissions reduction are essential if society is desirous to

reduce the risk of dangerous climate change to acceptable levels

Policy issues Need for long-term investment towards building local capacity Rather than propose CSA, we should handle the well-known

traditional barriers to existing agricultural practices (e.g. greater investment in critical infrastructure such as water, fertilizer use) for ensuring food security

Need to improve the national and regional meteorological services to provide better weather forecasts that reach smallholder farmers

Enhance early warning systems Need for a healthy relationship between scientific knowledge

and traditional indigenous knowledge especially in SSA where technology for prediction and modeling is least developed.

The End

Thank You !

Your Comments are most Welcome

Synthesis report re sakss-june 2012

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