Synthesis of Modes of Ocean-Ice- Atmosphere Covariability in the Arctic System from Multivariate Century-Scale Observations Martin Miles Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center, Boulder, CO Mark Serreze National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO James Overland Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA
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Synthesis of Modes of Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Covariability in the Arctic System from Multivariate Century-Scale Observations Martin Miles Environmental Systems.
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Synthesis of Modes of Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere
Covariability in the Arctic System from
Multivariate Century-Scale Observations
Martin MilesEnvironmental Systems Analysis Research Center, Boulder, CO
Mark SerrezeNational Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
James OverlandPacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA
Overall objective
Quantitatively synthesize modes of (co)variability
– and changes in these modes – in the Arctic and
subpolar North Atlantic ocean–ice–atmosphere
system in the past one to two centuries
Specific objectives (4):
• Assemble, update and systematize the longest
continuous time series of oceanographic and
meteorological measurements, sea ice
observations and climate indices
Integrate a subset of the multidecadal to century-scale
Unaami Data Collection with a set of century-scale time
series from the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic,
complemented by NCEP and other fields
a b
(a) Approximate locations of multidecadal time series of climate () atmosphere (), ocean (), sea ice (), terrestrial (), biology () and fisheries () variables in the Unaami Data Collection. (b) Locations of the mostly century-scale SAT measurement series >64ºN, as in Overland et al. (2004).
Approximate locations of century-scale time series of climate () atmosphere (), ocean () and sea ice () variables from the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic. Color coded same as in previous figure.
Specific objectives (cont.)
• Quantitatively characterize the ocean–ice–
atmosphere system, through identifying
recurrent modes of (co)variability –
distinguishing modes other than the AO/NAO –
in ocean, ice and climate parameters
Seasonal to multidecadal time scales
Specific objectives (cont.)
• Quantitatively document changes in modes of
variability and covariability – i.e., re-organization
of the signals and linkages that may represent
‘regime shifts’ in the system
Specific objectives (cont.)
• Synthesize our results together with other
observational and modelling analyses, to
develop improved understanding of the arctic
ocean–ice–atmosphere system and
interactions with the subpolar North Atlantic
Overarching science questions
What are the modes of variability other than the
Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) and what
is their relative importance in different regions and
seasons?
How do modes of variability change through time
and how unusual are recent changes compared to
longer-term observations or model-based results?
Methodological approach
Data synthesis: Integrated, consistent multi-method,
multivariate statistical analysis
Reconcile previous research: heterogeneous
Methodological approach
Data synthesis: Integrated, consistent multi-method,
multivariate statistical analysis
Simple and advanced:
time series analysis techniques in time and frequency