Sybil P. Seitzinger International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) Stockholm, Sweden Modeling global river export: N, P, C, Si E. Mayorga A.F. Bouwman.

Sybil P. SeitzingerInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP)

Stockholm, Sweden

Modeling global river export: N, P, C, Si

Coastal effects

Sellman et al. 2007

Nutrient Sources Hydrology & Physical Factors

In-River N, P, Si, CRemoval

Global NEWS ModelNutrient Export from WaterSheds

Input databases 0.5o x 0.5o

>5000 watersheds globallySTN-30

Nutrient Sources

NaturalN2-FixationP Weathering

AnthropogenicNon-PointFertilizer (by crop type)

N2-fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N PointSewage(pop.; treatment level)

Global WatershedsWater RunoffPrecip. IntensityLand-useSlope

Hydrology & Physical Factors

Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use

In-River N, P, Si, CRemoval

Nutrient Loading toCoastal Waters

Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al. 2010Seitzinger et al. 2010

Global NEWS Model

At river mouths, predict export of:

Global NEWS ModelNutrient Export from WaterSheds

* DIC in prep.

Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al. 2010Seitzinger et al. 2010

Dissolved ParticulateInorganic Organic

N DIN DON PN

P DIP DOP PP

C DIC* DOC POC

Si DSi

Equation for DIN as example

YldF = Feriv,F * [(RSpntF + Rsdifant,F) + Rsdifnat,F

Rsdifant,DIN = Fews,DIN * WSdifant,N + Agfr * (fDIN(Rnat) * ECDIN), where:

Fews,DIN = eDIN * fDIN(Rnat)

WSdifant,N = WSdiffe,N + WSdifma,N + WSdiffix,ant,N = WSdifdep,ant,N – WSdifex,N]

Outline

Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual

Global watersheds Yangtze watershed

Sub-basins global DIP

Sub-basins California

Scenarios – global

Outline

Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual

Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005 > 5000 watersheds

Yangtze watershed

Sub-basins global DIP

Sub-basins California

Scenarios – global

Nutrient Sources

NaturalN2-FixationP Weathering

AnthropogenicNon-PointFertilizer (by crop type)

N2-fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N PointSewage(pop.; treatment level)

Global WatershedsWater RunoffPrecip. IntensityLand-useSlope

Hydrology & Physical Factors

Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use

In-River N, P, Si, CRemoval

Nutrient Loading toCoastal Waters

Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al. 2010Seitzinger et al. 2010

Global NEWS Model

Mod

eled

DIN

expo

rt(k

g N

bas

in-1

y-1)

Measured DI N export(kg N basin- 1 y- 1)

ChangJ iang

RhineMississippi

Elbe

Yukon

KolymaKamkatcha

Susquehanna

R2=0.79

DIN

Measured DOC yield(kg C km-2 yr-1)

Mod

eled

DO

C y

ield

(kg

C k

m-2 y

r-1)

Measured DIN export(kg N basin-1 yr-1)

Mod

eled

DIN

exp

ort

(kg

N b

asin

-1 y

r-1)

Colorado

Dnepr

Susquehanna

Gambia

Ganges

Rhine

R2=0.88

Ganges

Dumont et al. Harrison et al. Global Biogeochem Cycles 2005

River transport of DIN to coastkg N/km2/yr

>5000 watersheds

Seitzinger et al. 2005 Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Outline

Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual

Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005

Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs

Sub-basins global DIP

Sub-basins California

Scenarios – global

Yangtze river watershedannual 1970 – 2003

Yan et al. 2010 GBC

Atmos. N deposition

Model Predicted

Measured

Total N input

FertilizerManure

N2-fixation

Province level N input data

River DIN Export

Outline

Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual

Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2000

Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs

Sub-basins global DIP 0.5o x0.5o 0.5o x0.5o ~2010

Sub-basins California

Scenarios – global

Hi resolution NEWS-DIPSub-basin0.5o x 0.5o

Harrison et al. 2010 GBC

Measured data Model vs Data

NEWS-Predicted DIP Yield(kg P / km2 / yr)NEWS-DIP-2005

NEWS-DIP-HD-2010

Harrison et al., GBC 2010

Basin

Sub-basin

Outline

Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual

Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005

Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs

Sub-basins global DIP 0.5o x0.5o 0.5o x0.5o ~2010

Sub-basins California 1 km watershed ~2000

Scenarios – global

Measured DOC Yield(kg C / km2 / yr)

(Data courtesy of R. Dahlgren and USGS)

Basin delineations: USGSRunoff: USGSPotential Runoff: DWRLand Use: Fire and ResourceAssessment Program (FRAP)Concentration: Dahlgren (1999-2004)

r2 validation = 0.80

n = 22

Harrison et al. In prep.

NEWS DOC Yield(kg C / km2 / yr)

Outline

Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual

Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005

Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs

Sub-basins global DIP 0.5o x0.5o 0.5o x0.5o ~2010

Sub-basins California various watershed ~2000

Scenarios – global 0.5o x0.5o watershed 2000-2030-2050

Coastal Effects(algae blooms; anoxia;

fisheries; etc.)

Nutrient Exportat River Mouth

Future scenarios

Nutrient Sources from Food and

Energy

Policy Options & Costs

Nutrient export trajectories 2000-2030

Includes social, economic, policy, and ecological considerations

/www.millenniumassessment.org

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

Worst CaseGlobal

Orchestration

Better CaseAdapting Mosaic

Envir. Approach reactive proactiveIncome high mediumPopulation Increase lower higherFertilizer Use high moderateNutrient Management not optimal efficientMeat Consumption high moderateSewage Treatment

access full constant %N removal high moderate

Specifics vary by country

Bouwman et al. 2010 & Van Drecht et al. 2009 GBC

Two scenarios

REFERENCE

Population

GDP

Agriculturaldemand

Agriculturaltrade

Domestic foodproduction

Mixed/landlesssystem

Pastoral systemMeat and

Milk production

Production per animal

Animalstocks

Grasslandarea

Croplandarea

Cropyield

Food/feed/energycrop production

Animalfeed

Fig. 1b

FeedcropsFig. 1b

Climate, CO2

AnimalmanureFig. 1c

Croppingintensity

Fertilizeruse

Fig. 1d

TIMER Energymodel

Energy cropproduction

MA scenario

Technology

Worst CaseGlobal

Orchestration

Better CaseAdapting Mosaic

Envir. Approach reactive proactiveIncome high mediumPopulation Increase lower higherFertilizer Use high moderateNutrient Management not optimal efficientMeat Consumption high moderateSewage Treatment

access full constant %N removal high moderate

Specifics vary by country

Bouwman et al. 2010 & Van Drecht et al. 2009 GBC

Two scenarios

Global Orchestration

Adapting Mosaic

Seitzinger et al. 2010 GBC

Change DIN river export 2000-2030

Seitzinger et al. 2010 GBC

Contribution to river DIN exportSouth Asia

Seitzinger et al. 2010, GBC

How were improvements

achieved?

•Sewage connectivity constant %•Technological NOx controls•Lower meat consumption•Efficient management nitrogenin agriculture

Summary

Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual

Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005

Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs

Sub-basins global DIP 0.5o x0.5o 0.5o x0.5o ~2010

Sub-basins California 1 km watershed ~2000

Scenarios – global 0.5o x0.5o watershed 2000-2030-2050

Mayorga et al. 2010 Model development, Envir. Modelling & Software

Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2010 - Special section

Seitzinger et al. overviewBouwman et al. agricultureVan Drecht et al. urban wastewaterFeteke et al. hydrologyHarrison et al. hi resolution DIPYan et al. Yangtze river

Acknowlegements and for more details

Nutrient Sources Hydrology & Physical Factors

In-River N, P, SiRemoval

Input Databases 0.5o x 0.5o

> 5000 watersheds globally

Global NEWS Model Nutrient Export from WaterSheds

DIN export change w/ 2030 climate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Tg

N /y

r

GO 2030

2000 N Inputs w/ GO 2030 Climate

Change DIN vs. 2000

Water runoff change

DIN change - Climate onlyMayorga, Seitzinger in prep.

DIN export change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Tg

N /y

r

GO 2030

2000 N Inputs w/ GO 2030 Climate

Change vs. 2000

Global Orchestration

Climate onlyMayorga, Seitzinger in prep.

Effect of climate change only on DIN river export?