SXSW 2011 - The Crisis of Trust in a Social Age: Issues and Opportunities

of TRUST in a

03.12.11

Social Age

The Crisis

It is safe? Watch this clip from the movie “Marathon Man” (1976)

SOCIAL MEDIA CONTINUES ITS METEORIC RISE

248 MM UNIQUE MONTHLY

VISITORS TO TOP 8 SNS SITES

61% INTERNET USERS

WITH AN SNS PROFILE

23% ALL INTERNET TIME

SPENT ON SNS

41% YAG

48% YAG

50% YAG

Source: Nielsen NetView - June 2009-June 2010

CONSUMER DECISION MAKING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOCIAL

I LIKE IT

“Do I look good? I really love this dress. I don’t think pictures do it

justice.”

84 %

LIKE IT

I HATE IT

Photo Credit: Kris Krüg

TRUST IN THE PEOPLE WE KNOW HAS ERODED

CREDIBILITY OF INFORMATION SOURCES ABOUT COMPANIES

TV NEWS

RADIO NEWS

NEWSPAPERS

FRIENDS/PEERS

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

2008 2010

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010

60% OF PEOPLE REPORT NEEDING TO HEAR SOMETHING ABOUT A SPECIFIC COMPANY 3-5X TO BELIEVE IT IS TRUE

AND WE REQUIRE MORE PROOF

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010

TRUST AND SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS ONLINE

MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST LESS

MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST MORE 40%

18%

UNSURE ABOUT THE NUMBER OF OPINIONS BUT IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL

41%

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

THREE POSSIBILITIES

ROCK THE VOTE! TWEET 1, 2 OR 3 TO #quest4trust NOW

1 NOT A PROBLEM: •  TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE

2 MAYBE A PROBLEM

3 YES, IT’S A PROBLEM: •  TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO

DO

•  IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL

THE AUDIENCE HAS SPOKEN!

SOURCE: COMPILATION OF AUDIENCE VOTES VIA LIVE TWEETS DURING THE PRESENTATION

1 NOT A PROBLEM: •  TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE

2 MAYBE A PROBLEM

3 YES, IT’S A PROBLEM: •  TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO

DO

•  IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL

6%

38%

56%

WHAT IS TRUST?

CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE IN

RELATION TO SOMETHING OF VALUE

WHY DOES TRUST EXIST?

TO COMMUNE.

TO LIVE.

TO PROTECT WHAT’S VALUABLE.

RISK SHAPES TRUST

SELF-ACTUALIZATION: achieving one’s full potential including creative activities

ESTEEM NEEDS: prestige and feeling of accomplishment

BELONGINGNESS AND LOVE NEEDS: intimate relationships, friends

SAFETY NEEDS: security, safety

PHYSIOLOGICAL NEEDS: food, water, warmth, rest

SELF-FULFILLMENT NEEDS

PSYCHOLOGICAL NEEDS

BASIC NEEDS

Source: A Theory of Human Motivation, 1943 - A. Maslow

THE MOB RULES

TRUST IS AN AGGREGATE

COMPANY CONSUMER

EXPECTATIONS

PRODUCT PLACE SERVICE PRICE PROMOTION

CONNECTION BRAND

PR ADVERTISING FRIENDS SOCIAL MEDIA

EMOTIONAL RATIONAL

PSYCHOLOGICAL PHYSICAL

REPUTATION BELIEFS

ASSOCIATIONS

EXPERIENCE

SHOPPING CONSUMPTION

HOW TRUST WORKS

OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE EXPECTATION

TRUST

PUT IN $$$

PHYSICAL PSYCHIC

GET OUT RATIONAL

EMOTIONAL

IT FRAMES THE VALUE PROPOSITION

BENEFITS COSTS VALUE = VS.

PUT IN GET OUT

TRUST

‘FUTURE PROOF’ IS A TRUST PLAY


PUT IN GET OUT

TRUST

TRUST IS FEELING GOOD.

Photo Credits: Heinrich Klaffs

AN ECONOMIC GALE OF DARWINIAN PROPORTIONS

ECONOMIC RISK EVER-PRESENT DESPITE BEST EFFORTS TO MANAGE IT. STANDING ON GUARD.

ERA OF READINESS

RISK THOUGHT TO BE MANAGEABLE WITH HIGH-TECH MACRO-ECONOMIC TOOLS. INDULGING RISK

ERA OF INDULGENCE

RISK ABRUPTLY RETURNS UNEXPECTEDLY CREATING UNCERTAINTY, REASSESSING EXTERNALITIES

ERA OF CONSEQUENCES

WW II ENDS

MID 1980s 2008

Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010

“The new consumer psychology on the rise around the world is one of networks and

prioritization, of explicitly pricing in consequences and of giving more than lip service to being

resourceful and and vigilant to downside risks This is the global zeitgeist now aborning.”

WELCOME TO THE ERA OF CONSEQUENCES


OTHER MACRO FORCES ADD TO THE ‘CONSEQUENCE’

UNDERCURRENT

•  ECOLI IN FOOD SUPPLY •  TOXIC DOG FOOD •  LED PAINT IN TOYS •  OBESITY

CONSUMPTION

•  LAID OFF OR WORK SCALED BACK •  HOMES WORTH LESS THAN DEBT •  RETIREMENT FUNDS DECIMATED

ECONOMIC

•  SEVERE WEATHER AND DAMAGE •  BIRD FLU, SWINE FLU •  GLOBAL WARMING •  9/11

ENVIRONMENT

•  MORTGAGE COLLAPSE •  INVESTMENT MELTDOWN •  AUTO INDUSTRY BAILOUTS

INSTITUTIONS

EFFECTS ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

The decision calculus of consumer choice will be different. The process of arriving at decisions will be different, even when the outcomes are the same. Consumers are redefining what value means to them.


PUT IN

HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION


GET OUT

TRUST

HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION

INGREDIENTS PROCESSING FOOTPRINT

HOW IT’S MADE


GET OUT

TRUST

TAKEN AWAY

PUT IN

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS A CHARACTER ISSUE

SKEWED CONTRIBUTIONS

NEGATIVE POSITIVE

NEUTRAL

MO

TIVA

TIO

N /

VO

LUM

E O

F C

OM

ME

NTS

SENTIMENT CHARACTER

OPAQUE INTEGRITY

NEGATIVE POSITIVE

SENTIMENT CHARACTER

NEUTRAL

MO

TIVA

TIO

N /

VO

LUM

E O

F C

OM

ME

NTS

TALK IS

CHEAP

REFERRAL MODERATED BY REPUTATIONAL RISK

TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC

AGGREGATE CONSENSUS

SOURCE FAMILIARITY

EXPERTISE INDEPENDENCE

OPINION ORIGIN


AGGREGATE CONSENSUS

SOURCE FAMILIARITY


OPINION ORIGIN

SOMEONE YOU KNOW?

SOMEONE YOU

DON’T KNOW

VS



AGGREGATE CONSENSUS

SOURCE FAMILIARITY


OPINION ORIGIN

SOMEONE YOU KNOW?

SOMEONE YOU

DON’T KNOW

VS


EXPERIENCE?

WHAT SOMEONE HAS SEEN OR

HEARD?

VS


WHICH RECOMMENDATION DO YOU TRUST MOST WHEN CHOOSING A

HOTEL IN A NEW CITY?

71 % CLOSEST FRIENDS OR FAMILY BASED ON WHAT THEY’VE HEARD

29 % A HIGH SCHOOL FRIEND ON FACEBOOK YOU HAVEN’T SEEN IN A WHILE, WHO’S STAYED THERE


SALIENCE IS SHAPED BY A CONTEXT THAT’S UNCLEAR

FAMILIARITY

UN

DE

RS

TAN

DIN

G EXPERT/

AUTHORITY

PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND

ME

PEOPLE I LIKE

WHAT LOTS OF PEOPLE

LIKE

PEOPLE LIKE ME

41 % IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL WHICH OPINIONS ARE RELIABLE AND WHICH ONES AREN’T.


BRAND BEHAVIOR IN THE AGE OF PRISMATIC DISTORTION

OLD PARADIGM

NEW PARADIGM

BRAND RESIDUE

CUMULATIVE EFFECT?

TRUST OR MISTRUST…

WHY NOT AFFINITY / LACK

THEREOF?

RESONANCE / DEAFNESS?

LOVE / HATE / INDIFFERENCE?

TRUST IS THE PRIME

WHAT TO DO?

GEAR UP BRAND COWBOYS (AND EMBRACE THE UNCERTAINTY)

•  BEHAVIOR VS WORDS •  DISINTERMEDIATION VS

INTERMEDIATION •  USERS VS SPECULATORS

•  OVER TIME VS POINT

SPEND LESS ON SUPERBOWL ADS

MORE ON SUPERBAD SUPPORT AND

BEHAVIOR WORDS VS

DISINTERMEDIATION

INTERMEDIATION AND

( ARE THE CROWDS REALLY ALL THAT WISE? )

TAKE ONE-TO-ONE TO THE NEXT LEVEL (“DIRECT RESPONSE” TO “DIRECT FEEDBACK”)

WHERE’S THE TWITTER ENTERPRISE DASHBOARD?

USERS SPECULATORS VS

LIFETIME CUSTOMER

CONVERSATIONS INCREASE

LIFETIME CUSTOMER VALUE

OVER TIME POINT IN TIME VS

•  ONLINE REVIEWS AND BRAND FEEDBACK FIXED IN TIME

‘YOU RECENTLY PURCHASED / USED /

VISITED’

•  FEEDBACK HAS TO BE DIRECTLY SOLICITED AND INCENTED OVER LIFETIME OF

RELATIONSHIP

‘HOW DO YOU FEEL NOW?’

OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE BASED SATISFACTION

People are finding social media opinion less reliable Trust depends on a interrelationship of contextual factors which determine content’s value Marketers have an opportunity to forge a true one-to-one connection to build lasting value and earn trust

CHEERS! #quest4trust #kmacwithcheese

SXSW 2011 - The Crisis of Trust in a Social Age: Issues and Opportunities

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