SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing Presented by Hamza Kabelwa Prepared by Richard H. Grumm Contributions by Vadlamani.

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011

NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing

Presented by

Hamza Kabelwa

Prepared by Richard H. Grumm

Contributions by Vadlamani Kumar NCEP

Version 2.0


Overview

• NCEP African Desk website– Key entry point:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/– Products for forecasters

• http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml

• Surfs up tour of products and locations


NCEP African Desk Entry Pointhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/

• Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

• Part of USAID/Famine Early Warning System (FEWS)

• African Desk Training/Cirriculum

• Forecast Products and outlooks

• Key contacts• Wassila Thiaw• Vadlamani Kumar

• Enter • Via the MAP• Our Africa under Special

Products


Test Drive Site for Products

• Try main entry point

• Examine text products bulletin

• Examine use of maps and data+-

• http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/



Main Forecaster Real-time datahttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml

• Resources for forecaster

• Expert Assessments

• Regional NWP

• Africa Wide NWP• Observations

– Analysis– Precipitation

• Satellite Data– Real-time and precipitatoin

estimates


Links

• International Jump off point:– http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa

n_desk/cpc_intl/

• Main Forecast entry point– http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa

n_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml

• East Africa tools:– http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa

n_desk/cpc_intl/eafrica/eafrica.shtml


Weakness and Strength

• IHigher resolution than the EFS

15 or 27 vs 75 km

Typically more skill than our EFS

Best at shorter forecast ranges

It is an ensemble member in and of itself

Has meteorological details

Put details often introduce errors!



• I EFS and global models are too course for features which can really impact

the local and regional weather Smooth out terrain features Smooth out finer scale features

Flooding and severe weather events are typically meso-b and meso-g features

Finer resolution models and Local Area Models play a valuable role in filling the gaps

Diagnosis of stability can help in many cases



• I



• I



• I



• I


Review

• NCEP African Desk website– Main jump off/entry point:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/– Products for forecasters


• A brief tour of the site was conducted

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing Presented by Hamza Kabelwa Prepared by Richard H. Grumm Contributions by Vadlamani.

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