SWEDISH MEDICAL CENTER CHERRY HILL MIMP SPACE NEEDS ANALYSIS JANUARY 16, 2014
AGENDA
1. Purpose of Space Needs Analysis
2. The Context – Demographics: ExisAng and Projected – Trends in Health Care Delivery – The Region
3. Forecasts – Volumes – Space
PURPOSE OF SPACE NEEDS ANALYSIS
To validate and refine future space needs on the Campus by type of space 1. Hospital 2. Clinical/Research 3. EducaAon 4. Hotel 5. Long Term Care/Assisted Living/ Skilled Nursing 6. Other Campus Support
THE CONTEXT
Aging PopulaAon
• People living longer means: – more elderly alive today because of medical intervenAons – more chronic disease – more complex medical condiAons prevalent with the elderly – more support needed for elderly – Sicker inpaAents – More fragile outpaAents
year 1910 2013
Ave Life Expectancy 51.5 80.3
HOSPITAL DISCHARGE RATES BY AGE: WASHINGTON STATE
65+
<65
Those aged 65+ are admiNed to hospitals 3.5 Smes more oTen than those under 65.
Source: WA State Dept of Health
POPULATION GROWTH BY AGE
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0 – 14 = +19%
65+ = +127%
15 – 64 = +11%
Overall PopulaSon for King County will increase 25% by 2040
KING COUNTY 65+ POPULATION
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
65+ Age Group
+55 K
+ 267,000 more 65+ in King County by 2040 +26 K
+58 K
+51K
Residents 65+ +100,000 +100,000 more
+35K +26K
+15K
MAJOR HEALTH CARE TRENDS
• Improved access to the right care at the right Ame
• Shia from inpaAent to outpaAent • Improved outcomes • Integrated systems of care
– Hospital mergers • BeNer care for lower cost • Prudent use of technologies • Changing/evolving reimbursement systems • Breakthroughs in research
– IntegraAon of clinical care and research – InnovaAve technologies
• Challenges in medical professional staffing – OpSmize precious resources
• Aging physical infrastructure
INTEGRATED SYSTEM COMPONENTS
Primary Care Clinics
Special Equipment, e.g. Cath Labs, specialized Surgeries, Gamma Knife
Medical Centers
Community Hospitals / Emergency Rooms
Ballard PC Ballinger Beacon Hill Cen Seafle C. Edmonds C. W Sea Cle Elum Downtown Edmonds Factoria Ballard FM C Hill FM
First Hill FM Greenlake Edmonds IM Issaquah PC Magnolia PC Mill Ck PC Pine Lk PC Q Anne Redmond Snoqualmie SLU PC W Sea PC
Ballard Edmonds Issaquah Mill Creek Redmond
Cherry Hill First Hill
FORECASTS
Program Volumes
PaAents in Beds Research/Clinic MDs EducaAon Users Hotel Guests Long Term Care Residents
Demographics
By Age Use Rates
Future Intent
Role within the System of Care Emerging technology & care trends
Space benchmarks
Plan for ‘right sizing’ spaces
Allowances for development within constraints of exisAng condiAons
Future Volume & Space Needs
VOLUME FORECASTS
Hospital Bed Forecast
!196!!
!290!!
!385!!
!*!!!!
!100,000!!
!200,000!!
!300,000!!
!400,000!!
!500,000!!
!600,000!!
!*!!!!
!50!!
!100!!
!150!!
!200!!
!250!!
!300!!
!350!!
!400!!
!450!!
2012! 2023! 2040!
Beds! King!Co.!Pop!65+!
Bed forecasts influenced by populaAon change, service demand, ACA (new paAents), and average length of stay.
VOLUME FORECASTS
Clinical and Research MDs
Clinical & Research MD forecasts influenced by inpaAent bed growth, enhancing specialty programs, and expanding to meet needs of ACA.
!277!!
!441!!
563!
!)!!!!
!50!!
!100!!
!150!!
!200!!
!250!!
!300!!
!350!!
!400!!
!450!!
!)!!!!
!100!!
!200!!
!300!!
!400!!
!500!!
!600!!
2013! 2023! 2040!
Clinical!MDs! Research!MDs! Beds!
VOLUME FORECASTS
Hotel Rooms
Hotel Room forecast primarily influenced by inpaAent bed growth. Some beds set aside for outpaAents coming from out-‐of-‐town for treatment.
!29!!
!56!!
!80!!
!(!!!!
!50!!
!100!!
!150!!
!200!!
!250!!
!300!!
!350!!
!400!!
!450!!
!(!!!!
!10!!
!20!!
!30!!
!40!!
!50!!
!60!!
!70!!
!80!!
!90!!
2013! 2023! 2040!
Hotel!Rooms! Hospital!Beds!
VOLUME FORECASTS
EducaAon
EducaAon forecast influenced by increases in paAent volumes driving the need for addiAonal staff, staff training for new technology and data/record systems, residency programs, and other teaching and training.
73K$SF$
100K$SF$
150K$SF$
0$
50$
100$
150$
200$
250$
300$
350$
400$
450$
0$
20000$
40000$
60000$
80000$
100000$
120000$
140000$
160000$
2012$ 2023$ 2040$
Educa3on$ Hospital$Beds$
VOLUME FORECASTS
Long Term Care/Assisted Living/Skilled Nursing Beds
Long Term Care forecast assumes Seafle Rehab Center maintains exisAng program. AddiAonal development on campus is assumed to be a mix of acute rehab and assisted living. Size is based on operaAonal consideraAons.
99"
149"
220"
"'""""
"100,000""
"200,000""
"300,000""
"400,000""
"500,000""
"600,000""
0"
50"
100"
150"
200"
250"
2012" 2023" 2040"
Sea"Rehab"Center" Long"Term"Care" King"Co."Pop"65+"
CAMPUS SPACE NEED PROJECTIONS
Year ExisSng 2023 2040
Hospital 541,300 1,014,000 1,350,000 Clinical/Research 427,000 1,014,000 1,250,000 EducaAon 73,000 100,000 150,000 Hotel 12,500 40,000 80,000 Long Term Care 43,000 93,000 220,000 Other Support 50,000 50,000 50,000 TOTAL 1,146,800 2,311,000 3,100,000
Building Gross Square Feet