Sweden and IIASA Highlights · • Professor Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, Head, Department Water Resources Engineering, Lund University Dr Magnus Tannerfeldt, Senior Research Officer at

The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) is the National Member Organization (NMO) representing Sweden’s membership of IIASA. FORMAS funds IIASA and is itself financed by the Swedish Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry for Rural Affairs. Prior to the establishment of FORMAS in 2001, the Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research served as the Swedish NMO for IIASA from 1983 when it took over membership from the Swedish Committee for IIASA which had joined IIASA in 1976.   Ingrid Petersson, General Director of FORMAS, is the IIASA Council Member for Sweden. The IIASA Council consists of one representative of each of IIASA’s member countries and is responsible for setting the overall strategic direction of the Institute as well as governing IIASA.   FORMAS has established a Swedish-IIASA Committee to encourage links and improve the integration of research activities at IIASA with those of Swedish universities, institutes and government agencies, as well as to strengthen systems analysis research in Sweden. The committee is comprised of members from Swedish universities, government agencies, and private companies. � The current members are: Ingrid Petersson (Chair), General Director, FORMAS Dr Torbjörn Becker, Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, Stockholm School of Economics Professor Love Ekenberg, Senior Research Scholar, IIASA;, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences (DSV), Stockholm University Dr. Måns Nilsson, Acting Executive Director and Professor, Stockholm Environment Institute Dr Klaus Hammes, Chief Economist, Swedish Energy Agency Dr Hördur Haraldsson, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Mr Jan Lagerström, former Research Director, Swedish Forest Industries Federation Professor Annika Nordin, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) Professor Johan Rockström, Director, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University Professor Dr Björn Stigson, former President, World Business Council for Sustainable Development Professor Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, Head, Department Water Resources Engineering, Lund University Dr Magnus Tannerfeldt, Senior Research Officer at FORMAS is the NMO Secretary for Sweden.

Ms. Ingrid Petersson, Director General of FORMAS and current IIASA Council Member representing Sweden. Professor Carl Folke, Science Director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, was a member of IIASA’s Science Advisory Committee from 2009 to 2011, and has collaborated with IIASA researchers in the area of resilience. Professor Anna Ledin, Director, Department of Environment, City of Gothenburg, was the IIASA Council Member for Sweden from 2011 to 2013. Professor Johan Rockström is Executive Director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, and teaches natural resource management at Stockholm University. He has a long association with IIASA including as a lead author of the Global Energy Assessment, a keynote speaker at IIASA Conference 2012, and …. Professor Lisa Sennerby-Forsse, Rector of the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, was the IIASA Council Member for Sweden from 2000 to 2006. Professor Bjorn Stigson, former President, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, advises IIASA’s Director General on collaborations with industrial and private sector businesses.

IIASA works with research funders, academic institutions, policymakers and individual researchers in Sweden. The following list includes the names of the organizations or the individual’s affiliated institutions that have all recently collaborated with IIASA. Bolin Centre for Climate Change Chalmers Institute of Technology City of Stockholm Forestry Research Institute of Sweden (Skogforsk) Forest Sector Insights AB Institute for Future Studies Karolinska Institutet (KI) KTH Royal Institute of Technology Linkoping Universit Lulea University of Technology (LUT) Lund University Malardalen University Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications Ministry of Foreign Affairs Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Sodertorn University Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Swedish Board of Fisheries (NBF) Swedish Energy Agency Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra) Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) The Kempe Foundation Umea University Uppsala University University of Gothenburg

A recent study including researchers from Chalmers University of Technology and IIASA investigated the health effects of the increasing number of diesel cars, which have 4 to 7 times higher NOx emissions. This figure shows the number of premature deaths due to excess NOx emissions from diesel cars, vans and light commercial vehicles in Europe (left column). Almost 50% could be have been avoided if diesel emission limits had been respected on the road (center column). Almost 80% could have been avoided had diesel cars emitted no more NOx than petrol cars (right column). The researchers found that excess emissions from diesel cars cause about 5,000 premature deaths annually across Europe.

A new model, developed by a researcher at KTH Royal Institute of Technology while an YSSP student at IIASA, helped inform a new tool for cities to optimize electric bus systems. This tool can be used to determine the environmental and financial benefits of introducing their own electrified bus networks. Using the model to propose the optimal locations for installing chargers on Stockholm’s bus network, the researcher found that the fleet could halve CO2 emissions while lowering energy consumption by 34%, if the city installed 150 chargers to electrify 94 bus routes. The study was published in Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies in 2017. When Sweden rolled out their first wireless charging buses in January 2017, they used this tool. This figure shows a amp of bus lines in Stockholm showing where electrical lines with wireless charging would be possible. The red lines represent biodiesel, blue lines represent electrical / conductive charging and orange lines electric / inductive charging.

An international collaboration including researchers from Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences and IIASA developed global land cover and land use datasets using crowdsourcing platform through four campaigns: human impact campaign that provided information on land availability for biofuel production; land cover disagreement campaign that sampled from areas where global land cover maps disagree; wilderness campaign that collected information on human impact and land cover information; and a land cover and land use campaign to validate a global land cover map. This figure shows the spatial locations of the four campaigns – displaying density of the sampling and the sample design. a) shows the human impact campaign, B) shows the disagreement campaign, c) shows the wilderness campaign, and d) shows the reference campaign. The study was published in Scientific Data in 2017.

IIASA researchers analyzed different scenarios until 2050 for global feedstock supply for the production of bioenergy under specified social and environmental safeguard provisions. The scenarios were developed through application of an integrated global modeling cluster, and show that biomass for bioenergy to a large extent will be sourced from the conversion of unmanaged forest into managed forest, from new fast-growing short rotation plantations, and from intensification of land-use. Depending on the underlying scenario, zero net deforestation by 2020 might be reached and upheld while only implying a minor expansion into managed forests. Results further indicate that with rising populations and projected consumption levels, there may not be enough land to simultaneously conserve natural areas completely, halt forest loss and switch to 100 per cent renewable energy, which will make difficult trade-offs necessary. Future food and energy demands would lead to acute land competition and increased pressure on agricultural land and water resources. Managed boreal forests are likely be an important source for bioenergy feedstock and, especially in the tropical regions, it is important to achieve a controlled conversion from unmanaged to sustainably managed forest as well as increased protection of areas for biodiversity. Background: Sweden has Europe’s second largest forest cover after Finland with over 65% of Sweden being covered with forests. Forests provide a range of natural resources as well as other ecosystem services essential for human well-being such as playing a key role in combating climate change as a carbon sink. A recent joint studies with Swedish researchers examine forest management: IIASA’s ecosystems experts have been researching with the Future Forests research program to analyze the economic consequences of alternative forest land-use strategies. Future Forests was initiated by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra) and is joint initiative between the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Umeå University and the Forestry Research Institute of Sweden (Skogforsk).

IIASA’s BeWhere model determines the optimal size and location of bio-energy production plants based on minimizing the cost of the complete supply chain. An international team, coordinated by IIASA, develops the model and includes the Mälardalen University, Luleå University of Technology, and KTH Royal Institute of Technology. Together, they have developed a detailed version of the model for Sweden. Recent research has identified the optimal location for the next generation of biofuel production (lignocellulosic ethanol refineries) in Sweden with funding from the Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels. The maps show the most cost-effective location and type of biofuel plants for Sweden in 2030 based on four different scenarios from the Swedish Environment Protection Agency’s report, ‘Basis for a roadmap for Sweden with GHG emissions in 2050’. The maps also show the location of the biomass that would supply each plant. The road-map scenarios used here take into account e.g. demand for transport, transport fuel and next generation biofuels, available forest biomass resources, biomass available for industrial purposes, biomass usage in other energy and industrial sectors, and energy market conditions. The primary objective has been to identify cost-effective types of biofuel production plant locations that are robust to various boundary conditions, in particular regarding energy mar-ket prices, policy instruments, investment costs, feedstock competition and integration pos-sibilities with existing energy systems, and to provide a broader analysis of the model re-sults regarding e.g. implications for policy makers and connections between different actors in the biofuel innovation system. The roadmap scenarios have been focused on the transport sector and how future demand for advanced biofuels can be met by domestic production, using only domestic feedstocks. A detailed bottom-up approach to assess the spatial cost structure of harvesting roundwood, residues and stumps was applied to different scenarios for forest production and availability. Seven different next generation biofuel technologies were considered for integration with existing industry (pulp mills, paper mills, sawmills, refineries, combined heat and power (CHP) plants). Each industrial site was modelled individually, based on current and project-ed operation. Biomass use in other sectors was also modelled geographically explicitly. The roadmap scenarios encompassed two different next generation biofuel targets: 4 and 9 TWh per year, respectively. The results show that the biofuel target can be realised in all modelled scenarios using only domestic biomass resources and by investment in new next generation biofuel plants (3-5 plants for the scenarios with low biofuel target, 6-9 plants for the scenarios with high target). The implementation of next generation biofuel production in addition to the consid-ered increase of the biomass use in other sectors would however require a significant in-crease in the use of forest residues (branches, tops and stumps), from the 14 TWh currently used annually, to 32-50 TWh/year (depending on biofuel target and biomass use in other sectors). This represents up to 97 percent of the techno-ecological potential. The total capital requirement to meet the biofuel targets would be substantial – around 600-1,200 MEUR to meet the lower biofuel target, to around 1,300-2,400 MEUR to meet the higher target. The lower numbers represent the incremental investment costs, i.e. it is based on the assumption that the host industries would otherwise have made alternative invest-ments (e.g. investment in black liquor gasification is assumed to be done instead of invest-ment in a new recovery boiler). The difference between these numbers emphasise the sig-nificant reduction in capital requirement that results from considering the incremental in-vestment costs, and that plants that are in a situation where they are going to replace existing technology are highly preferred, at least from a capital cost point of view. The specific in-cremental capital requirement would thus be on the order of 120-150 MEUR per TWh of annual biofuel production capacity. The resulting average biofuel production cost would be on the order of 70-80 EUR/MWh, if incremental capital costs are considered. The specific capital cost was found to make up around 25-40 percent of the total production cost, de-pending on the assumed annuity factor. Black liquor gasification with dimethyl ether production (BLG-DME) and solid biomass gasification with production of synthetic natural gas (BMG-SNG) dominate the model re-sults, due to the high biomass-to-biofuel system efficiency. The results also show that low need for transportation of biomass is important in the choice of plant location, with chemical pulp mills and sawmills appearing as the most attractive host industries. For some cases the biomass transported to the mill when biofuels are produced are approximately the same as the by-products transported from the mill when biofuels are not produced. Thus, the net increase in transportation cost could then be close to zero or even negative, depending on the transportation distances for the export and import of biomass. Large plants could be expected to be more favourable due to economies of scale. However, the selected plants represent the entire scale range from large to small plants, despite the higher specific investment cost for smaller plants. A larger number of smaller plants to cover a given biofuel demand leads to lower total system cost due mainly to shorter net transport distances of both biomass and biofuel, despite the corresponding higher capital requirement. This effect is more pronounced in biomass restricted scenarios, which leads to the conclusion that biomass supply area and net biomass transportation costs are parameters of highest relative importance in the choice of optimal plant locations. High biomass prices and restricted biomass availability also stimulates BLG-DME over BMG-SNG, which fur-ther augments the significance of chemical pulp mills as host industries. The results show that systems with a mix of biofuels in general display a lower system cost compared to more homogenous systems. This shows that future policies need to be carefully designed in order to allow for and promote a variety of technologies and fuels. The results also show that the capital requirement is significant, even though investment costs for com-mercial “Nth plants” have been considered. Since the analysed technologies still remain to be demonstrated on industrial scale, the estimated investment costs must however be viewed as fairly uncertain. These facts show the importance of initial financial support, increased knowledge and learning to facilitate the construction of first plants and attain an associated reduction of investment costs. Currently, many process industries in Sweden are experiencing challenging conditions, in particular the mechanical pulp and paper industry. However, the process industry in Sweden represents industrial infrastructure in which billions of euros have already been invested. In addition, especially the forest industry also holds valuable knowledge and structures for biomass logistics and processing. Investment in and integration of next generation biofuel production could provide business opportunities for the industry, which could give both existing process industries and the emerging biorefinery industry added value. The BeWhere Sweden model can be used to analyse how existing industrial infrastructure can be used for efficient production of next generation biofuels as well as other biorefinery products (when further developed). The model can also be used to identify and analyse what transformations of the existing forest industry efficient large scale production of e.g. biofuels or chemicals would actually imply, and in which steps such a transformation could occur. Based on results from BeWhere Sweden, suitable “first plant” locations and associated stakeholders can be targeted, something which could be of interest for technology develop-ment actors, policy makers, as well as industrial financers of technology scale up. Results from BeWhere Sweden could also be used when analysing different actors’ possibilities, conditions and roles in a transition towards realising a large scale next generation biofuel and biorefinery industry in Sweden. The model could be used to identify industries and actors of high importance, such as potential “early adopters”. Further, model results could help identify actors, types of industry or regions of particular interest for future biofuel production, which can be valuable in the design of future policies. This project has mainly focused on forest-based biomass and biofuels, and forest industry. In an upcoming project BeWhere Sweden will be soft-linked with the aggregated energy systems model TIMES-Sweden. Within this project the model will also undergo substantial development regarding biofuel production integrated with district heating systems. Other areas of interest for further model development include distribution of SNG in the national gas grid, inclusion of other biofuels and technologies, and addition of agricultural residues and crops. Further, the results in this report show that the biomass supply area has signifi-cant impact on the choice of plant locations and types of biofuel production, and that smaller plant sizes relatively often are chosen. Inclusion of intermediate products such as torrefied biomass, pyrolysis oil and lignin extracted from chemical pulp mills would entail lower feedstock transport costs, which could benefit larger biofuel production plants. Intermediate products are thus of particular interest to include in the model. Finally, the inclusion of other types of biorefinery technologies products (e.g. different types of chemicals), could be in-cludeed into the model. By running BeWhere Sweden without fixed goals for various pro-ducts, competition for biomass for feedstock or energy purposes could be studied explicitly which would also add dynamics to the modelling approach.

Sweden’s energy policy includes the long-term vision that by 2050 Sweden will have a sustainable and resource-efficient energy supply and no net emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Achieving this vision and short-term goals on renewable energy and energy efficiency requires a thorough understanding of the complex global energy system and its multiple connections with Sweden’s economy, environment, and society. Integrated, international assessments are one of the few research approaches that have the breadth and depth to explore such complex problems across multiple sectors, regions, and timeframes. From 2006-12, IIASA led the Global Energy Assessment (GEA), in which a new global energy policy agenda was defined—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy. GEA involved over 500 specialists from a range of disciplines, industry groups, and policy areas, to identify pathways and policies to facilitate equitable and sustainable energy services for all: Sweden was an important sponsor of the GEA with the Swedish Energy Agency and FORMAS providing substantial financial support. Swedish scientists played important roles directing the GEA with Thomas B Johansson of Lund University serving as Co-Chairperson of the GEA executive committee and five Swedes as members of the GEA governing Council including Bert Bolin (first Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and Tomas Kåberger (former Director General of the Swedish Energy Agency). Swedish scientists made a significant contribution to the GEA with Johan Rockstrӧm, who was then Executive Director of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), a Convening Lead Author; and fifteen other researchers serving as contributors or reviewers to the assessment. Findings relevant to Sweden were outlined at the Swedish launch of the GEA by IIASA at Lund University. Themes of particular interest were the analysis of the major energy challenges, long-term energy scenarios, and the policies and investments needed to make these future systems a reality. Outcomes from the GEA also included the adoption of GEA’s findings as the three key objectives of the UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All (SE4ALL) initiative on energy access, energy efficiency, and renewable energy.

Researchers from the Stockholm University and IIASA investigated black carbon concentrations and source contributions in the Siberian Arctic. The figure shows Arctic observations and black carbon emissions. The study site Tiksi (Russia) is shown as a red star, together with seven other major Arctic research sites. Stations for which BC radiocarbon data are available are marked with a star (Abisko, Barrow, Tiksi, and Zeppelin), and others are marked with a circle (Alert, Kevo, Nord, and Pallas). The map also shows the ECLIPSE bottom-up BC EI for the year 2010 (gray; log scale) and fire BC emissions of open fires from GFED (red; log scale) for the full year of 2013. The researchers found that 38% of the black carbon in the Russian Arctic originates from transport, 35% from residential heating sources, 12% from open fires, 9% from power plants, and 6% from gas flaring. This research confirms previous work for some areas of the European Arctic, but for Siberia, the findings differ from previous research, which had suggested that contribution from gas flaring were much higher. The research was published in PNAS in 2017. Background As an Arctic country, Sweden has a natural interest in Arctic affairs. The global significance of the region has also risen considerably in recent years as the economic potential of the Arctic’s natural resources and new transport routes emerge. In 2014 IIASA established a new flagship project, known as the Arctic Futures Initiative, to conduct a holistic, integrative assessment of plausible futures of the Arctic. The project uses systems analysis to cut across different disciplines and integrate the perspectives of academia, policy, business and media. It will focus on developing future scenarios for the region and providing insights for decision makers that are independent of any particular country’s interest. Researchers and policymakers from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Stockholm Environment Institute, and the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency have been involved in the project including a recent workshop on scenarios on the future of the Arctic. Other collaborators on the project include researchers and diplomats from Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greenland, Norway, Russia, USA and international organizations such as the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) of the Arctic Council (of which Sweden is a member).

Seafood is the primary source of animal protein for more than one billion people. Many developing nations and coastal communities depend on fisheries. However, expanding food production from fisheries is hindered by rampant overfishing and changes in marine habitats. By combining fields of expertise as diverse as population genetics, evolutionary theory, and fisheries science, IIASA’s researchers have been analyzing the consequences of commercial fishing practices on the evolution of fish. Collaborations with Sweden include:  Two networking activities, the EU-funded FishACE (2005-09) and FINE programs (2007-10) facilitated international and interdisciplinary collaborations on the prevalence and consequences of fisheries-induced evolution and the options to manage these effects. Partners included Lund University, the Swedish Board of Fisheries, and the Institute of Coastal Research at SLU. Subsequent joint studies with researchers from Lund University have explored the interactions between predators and harvesting regimes on the stability of fish stocks. Research with SLU among other partners have provided advice for fisheries managers on how to assess the evolutionary impact of fishing practices and how to take the best reference points when comparing current fish populations with earlier fish stocks. Other collaborations have explored the evolutionary consequences of fishing on Atlantic salmon and sea trout. Ongoing collaborations with Lund University build on the ADAPTFISH project through developing models to explore the evolution of fish, the impact of angler behavior, and the implications for fisheries management.

A research study involving researchers from Umeå University and IIASA developed a model using data on trade flows and applied it to the global trade network of fish and seafood to quantify the exposure to external shocks. This research has implications for developing a resilient global food system. This figure shows the global seafood trade among regions represented as color groups. The width of each band represents quantity traded (tonnes per year), and the band color represents the importer. MENA stands for Middle East and North Africa. This research was published in Environmental Research Letters in 2016.

IIASA has developed research methods to project population by level of education. This equips researchers with the tools to explore the implications of different education policies on a country’s future fertility, life expectancy, migration and population level as well as economic growth, transition to democracy and ability to adapt to climate change. In 2014, IIASA will publish the first projections of educational attainment by age and sex for 195 countries with Oxford University Press. Findings for Sweden show how different policies over the next few decades could lead to a very different composition of Sweden’s future population.

SSP 1: Sustainability This world is making relatively good progress toward sustainability, with ongoing efforts to achieve development goals while reducing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. Elements that contribute to this progress are a rapid development of low-income countries, a reduction of inequality (globally and within economies), rapid technology development, and a high level of awareness regarding environmental degradation. Rapid economic growth in low-income countries reduces the number of people below the poverty line. The world is characterized by an open, globalized economy, with rapid technological change directed toward environmentally friendly processes, including clean energy technologies and innovations that enhance agricultural output. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and energy intensity, with a relatively low level of consumption of animal products. Significant investments in education coincide with low population growth, and both government and private institutions are working together to promote public policy solutions and economic development. The Millennium Development Goals are achieved within the next decade or two, resulting in educated populations with access to safe water, improved sanitation and medical care. Other factors that reduce vulnerability to climate and other global changes include the implementation of stringent policies to control air pollutants and rapid shifts toward universal access to clean and modern energy in the developing world. Population Component of SSP1: Rapid Development This storyline assumes that educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, leading to a relatively low world population. This implies assumptions of low mortality and high education for all three country groups. With respect to fertility assumptions the story is more complex. For rich OECD countries the emphasis on quality of life is assumed to make it easier for women to combine work and family, making further fertility declines unlikely. For this reason the medium fertility assumption was chosen for this group of countries. Low fertility assumptions were chosen for all other countries as implied by the assumed rapid continuation of demographic transition. Migration levels were assumed to be medium for all countries under this SSP.

IIASA has developed research methods to project population by level of education. This equips researchers with the tools to explore the implications of different education policies on a country’s future fertility, life expectancy, migration and population level as well as economic growth, transition to democracy and ability to adapt to climate change. In 2014, IIASA will publish the first projections of educational attainment by age and sex for 195 countries with Oxford University Press. Findings for Sweden show how different policies over the next few decades could lead to a very different composition of Sweden’s future population.

SSP 3: Fragmentation This narrative is an opposite of sustainability. The world is separated into regions characterized by extreme poverty, with pockets of moderate wealth. In the majority of countries, the struggle is to maintain living standards for rapidly growing populations. Regional blocks of countries have re-emerged with little coordination between them. This is a world failing to achieve global development goals and with little progress in reducing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. Environmental concerns such as air pollution are not being addressed. Countries in this scenario focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own region. The world has de-globalized, and international trade, including energy resource and agricultural markets, is severely restricted. The lack of international cooperation combined with low investments in technology development and education slow down economic growth in high-, middle-, and low-income regions. Population growth in this scenario is high as a result of the education and economic trends, and the growth in urban areas in low-income countries is often in unplanned settlements. Unmitigated emissions are relatively high, driven by the high population growth, use of local energy resources, and slow technological change in the energy sector. Governance and institutions are weak and lack cooperation, consensus, or effective leadership. Investments in human capital are low and inequality is high. A regionalized world leads to reduced trade flows, and institutional development is unfavorable, leaving large numbers of people vulnerable to climate change because of their low adaptive capacity. Policies are oriented towards security, including barriers to trade. Population Component of SSP3: Stalled Development In demographic terms this is a world with a stalled demographic transition. Fertility is assumed to be low in the rich OECD countries and high in the other two country groups. Population growth is assumed to be high in developing countries and low in industrialized countries. Accordingly, this scenario assumes high mortality and low education for all three country groupings. Due to the emphasis on security and barriers to international exchange, migration is assumed to be low for all countries.

The Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) develops the research skills and networks of talented PhD students. Program participants conduct independent research within the Institute’s research programs under the guidance of IIASA scientific staff. Funding is provided through IIASA’s Swedish National Member Organization unless otherwise stated. Since the first Swedish participant in the program in 1977, 115 students (from Sweden or studying in Sweden) have participated in the program with many going on to develop highly successful careers. More recently the following 32 students from Swedish institutes have participated in this program since 2010. YSSP’17 Claudia Canedo (University of Lund) researched drought impacts and risks on agricultural production in the Bolivian Altiplano. Orjan Gronlund (Forestry Research Institute of Sweden) studied spatially explicit assessment of management strategies in forest areas suitable for nature conservation in Sweden. Jing Li (Lund University) set up prelimenary modeling framework for studying impact of Nutrients (Nitrogen and Phosphorus) on Cyanobacteria/Cyanotoxins Dynamics in Lake Vomb, Sweden. Liv Lundberg (Chalmers University of Technology) researched economic policies for the transition to a renewable electricity system. YSSP’16 Tonje Renate Grahn (Karlstad University) conducted a systematic evaluation of flood damages to guide policy choices. Osama Ibrahim (Stockholm University, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences (DSV)) developed a systems tool for prescriptive policy anlysis which would facilitate the cognitive activity of representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling. Maria Xylia (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) explored charging infrastructure requirements for public transport electrification in Sweden. YSSP’15 Sennai Mesfun (Lulea University of Technology) researched the feasability of intermittent renewable power generation for increased biofuel production. Karl Erik Nilsson (Lund University) worked with the IIASA Risk and Resillience Program to research Socio-hydrological relationships and risks in the Lake Chad district in Chad. Benedict Singleton (Rebro University) compared the different forms of analysis produced by Cultural Theory and Elinor Ostrom’s design principles for governing Common Pool Resources. Anton Talantsev (Stockholm University) explored a structured approach for stakeholder analysis in public policymaking. Kamshat Tussupova (Lund University) investigated indicators for consumers’ willingness to pay to improve water supply services in rural Kazakhstan. YSSP’14 Pietro Campana (Mälardalen University) investigated the potential locations for installing photovoltaic water pumping technology for irrigation as an innovative and sustainable solution to curb the progress of grassland desertification and to promote the conservation of farmland in remote areas in China. Hana Nielsen (Lund University) studied the role of institutions and different political regimes on the adoption of innovation and the diffusion of new technologies. Xi Pang (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) developed and tested methods for assessing the sustainability of forest biomass extraction for bioenergy purposes by incorporating effects on biodiversity and important ecosystem services in the assessment. Jesper Sorensson (Lund University) explored post-speciation patterns—in terms of ecological, spatial, and reproductive differentiation among the resultant species—that allow the underlying speciation processes to be inferred. YSSP’13 Yihun Dile (Stockholm University) researched the implications of intensifying water harvesting systems on downstream social-ecological systems via a case study area on the Lake Tana basin in Ethiopia. Kalvis Kons (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) researched the potential to increase the efficiency of biomass terminals with a focus on bio-refinery and fuel wood supply chains. Henrik Sjödin (Umeå University) studied how cooperation is maintained in large populations in which individuals freely move between interaction groups, making decisions to stay or leave based on certain cues, such as group size or cooperation level. YSSP’12 Emma Katarina Jonson (Chalmers University of Technology) connected regional land-use modeling and data to global scenarios. Dilip Khatiwada (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) researched how to optimize ethanol and bioelectricity production in sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil. Mariliis Lehtveer (Chalmers University of Technology) conducted a multi-criteria analysis of the role of nuclear power in the global energy system. Bishnu Poudel (Mid Sweden University) developed forest management scenarios and their implications for land use, carbon balance and ecosystem service supply in Sweden and abroad. Yaw Sasu-Boakye (Chalmers University of Technology) studied the implications of substituting protein feed in European livestock production for emissions from land-use change. YSSP’11 Huayi Lin (Uppsala University) built a model involving the multiple socio-ecological factors influencing sustainable management of the Swedish wolf population. Brijesh Mainali (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) analyzed and modeled cooking fuel and stove choices including standard economic variables such as income, prices and costs, along with some variables unique to the developing country setting such as inconvenience costs. Anna Olson (Luleå University of Technology) modeled the effects of the development of second generation biofuel production on the Swedish forestry market. Renats Trubins (Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre) investigated scenarios of change to land use and forest cover based on different policies for selected areas in Southern Sweden. YSSP’10 Tanya Jukkala (Södertörn University) examined the historical development of suicide mortality and its relation to societal change in Russia from 1870-2007. Bernadett Kiss (Lund University) assessed how different policy instruments have supported technical change, development, introduction and diffusion of energy efficient end-use building technologies in Europe. Elisabeth Wetterlund (Linkoping University) studied the optimal location of biofuel production on a European scale. Rui Xing (Uppsala University) evaluated different energy saving measures to find an optimum energy consumption reduction plan for public buildings in Shanghai.

In 2012 IIASA launched its first regional YSSP called the Southern African Young Scientists Summer Program (SA-YSSP). The Program is organized jointly by the South African National Research Foundation, the South African Department of Science and Technology, the University of the Free State in Bloemfontein, South Africa, and IIASA. The following Swedish nationals have participated in the program: Jonas Wickman (SA-YSSP 2013-14 & Umeå University) researched the impact of spatial structure on evolutionary food-web formation.

Postdoctoral researchers at IIASA work in a rich international scientific environment alongside scientists from many different countries and disciplines. The Institute’s research community helps its postdoctoral researchers to develop their research from fresh angles, to publish widely in journal articles, and to establish their own global network of collaborators. Eight postdoctoral fellows from Sweden have participated in the program since 2010. Mia Landauer (2016 to present), a Swedish national, studies the implications of loss and damage from climate change, and participatory governance of infrastructure project deployment in the Arctic. (PhD from the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria) Sennai Mesfun (2016-present) is currently studying the impact of prolonged adverse weather events in power systems with high share of renewable sources. His postdoctoral scholarhip is being funded by the Kempe Foundation. (PhD in Energy Engineering from Luleå University of Technology) Fulvio Di Fulvio (2014-16) studied mapping global forest resources and calculating the costs of supplying wood biomass for both material and energy uses. His postdoctoral scholarship was funded by the Kempe Foundation. (PhD in Forest Technologies from the University of Tuscia in Italy) Henrik Sjödin (2014-16) used mathematical models to show how migration between groups can transform simple, non-cooperative communities into highly cooperative ones. His postdoctoral scholarship was funded by the Kempe Foundation. (PhD in Ecology from Umeå University) Nicklas Forsell (2012-13) researched the use of optimization models to analyze the links between forest, agricultural, and energy planning. His postdoctoral scholarship was funded by IIASA. (PhD in economics from the Swedish University of Agricultural Science) Eva-Maria Nordström (2011-13) worked on scenario analysis for the forest sector conducting global and local analysis, with a focus on Scandinavia and Sweden. Her postdoctoral scholarship was funded by the Kempe Foundation. (PhD in forest planning from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) Tobias Eriksson (2011-12) worked on the development of carbon balance models for boreal peatlands. His postdoctoral scholarship was funded by the Kempe Foundation. (PhD in forest ecology and management from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) Ola Lindroos (2011-12) studied methods for modeling complex large scale system and simulating its behavior and methods for including time and variation in the modeling and simulations of dynamic simulation of semi-stochastic events and methods for finding optimnal solutions to both of the above. His postdoctoral scholarship was funded by the Kempe Foundation. (PhD in Forest Technology from Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)