S.Vermeulen - Brussels Briefing - 2012-09-27

Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012

Smallholder agriculture under climate change: challenges and outlook

Sonja Vermeulen, Head of Research CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,

Agriculture and Food Security

Impacts

4 degrees by 2100 is likely

To 2090, taking 14 climate models Four degree rise

Thornton  et  al.  2010  

>20%  loss  5-­‐20%  loss  No  change  5-­‐20%  gain  >20%  gain  

Length  of  growing  period  (%)    

Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and rainfall

Impacts 2: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events

Pulwaty 2010

2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario Cheung et al 2010

Impacts 3: Major transitions in ecosystems and livelihoods

By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia (uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socio-economic models)

Lloyd  et  al.  2011    Environmental  Health  PerspecEves  

Impacts 4: Poorest at risk

Becoming “climate smart”

Food security

Adaptation Ecological footprint

“Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context

0

5

10

15

20

25

US Malawi

GHG CO2-eq tonne per capita

Adaptation

Adaptive capacity

Technology

Knowledge & skills Governance

& institutions

Income & assets

Access to

information

Infrastructure

Social capital

Key adaptation strategies Ø Incremental adaptation to progressive

climate change •  Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification) •  Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s Ø Climate risk management •  Technologies (e.g. flood control) •  Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance) •  Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts) Ø Transformative adaptation •  Changing production systems •  Changing livelihood portfolios

•  Example: Climate analogue tool

•  Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

•  These sites are used for cross-site farmer visits, & participatory crop & livestock trials

Adapting to long-term climate trends

Example: Climate services •  Met services produce

forecast information downscaled in space & time

•  Farmers & met services work together to ensure forecasts meet local needs

Adapting to greater

climate variability

•  Relocation of growing areas & processing facilities

•  Agricultural diversification, or shifts •  Livelihood diversification, or shifts •  Migration

To transformational adaptation?

Summary points

Climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture:

•  Are more complex than often assumed – and happening faster than often assumed

•  Are unevenly distributed geographically •  Depend on household and national capacities and

contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats •  Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and

health among poorer households

Responding with climate-smart agriculture:

•  Is foremost about development – addressing smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience

•  Adds new actions on climate to sustainable development

•  Deals with trade-offs, not only “win-win-wins” •  Must be “landscape-smart” too •  Will not solve future food security on its own (need

actions on distribution, diets, waste)

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