SUTRA: Sustainable Urban Transportation Final Review Gdansk, June 23/24 2003

1 Final Review

SUTRA: SUTRA: Sustainable Sustainable Urban TransportationUrban Transportation

Final Review Gdansk, Final Review Gdansk, June 23/24 2003June 23/24 2003DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, [email protected] http://www.ess.co.at

Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

2 Final Review

Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Agenda and Schedule• SUTRA: an overview• Project Administration• Progress and Results• Outlook and Exploitation

3 Final Review

Agenda and ScheduleAgenda and ScheduleMorning session, 09:00-12:30

  Introduction and framework

  1 Introduction, overview ESS

  2 Framework: indicators and scenarios FEEM

  3 Framework: techno-economic modeling UGE

  The tools  4 Transportation modeling PTV

  5 AQ modeling: emission and models UAV

4 Final Review

Agenda and ScheduleAgenda and ScheduleAfternoon Session 14:00 - 17:00

Case Study Applications7 Case study overview UAV8 Success stories CoGAnalysis9 Assessment and economics TUG,FEEM10 Analysis and benchmarking MEI, ARPALUser Feedback11 User perspective: GenoaCity of Genoa12 User perspective: Gdansk City of Gdansk13 General discussion

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SUTRA ObjectivesSUTRA Objectivesto develop a consistent and comprehensive

approach and planning methodology for the analysis of urban transportation problems to design strategies for sustainable cities.

This includes the integration of:– socio-economic – environmental and – technological concepts – multi-criteria assessment – policy level decision support.

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SUTRA methodology:SUTRA methodology:1. Indicator based approach2. Scenario analysis3. Simulation modeling, linking

– Techno-economic model– Transportation model– Emission model– Air quality models (street canyon, city level,

regional)4. Multi-criteria assessment:

– Economics, environment, public health

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SUTRA methodology:SUTRA methodology:In other words:

SUTRA builds a MODEL SYSTEM that processes a SCENARIO of urban transportation into a set of POLICY LEVEL INDICATORS – but with all the underlying technical detail in a consistent and quantitative manner.

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SUTRA: project factsSUTRA: project facts• Duration: July 2000 – June 2003,

36 months after contract amendment• Partners: 11 (originally 12) from 10

countries incl. Argentina (UBG)• Project web server:

http://www.ess.co.at/SUTRA/

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SUTRA: project factsSUTRA: project facts

• 13 major meetings of more than 2 partners incl. 7 full Board meetings

• 33 (of 35) Deliverables with a total of more than 1,500 pages or 15 kg)

• eMail list: > 3,000 mail messages• 127 data sets (of multiple files) in the

document tracking system• > 400 MB of data and documents on-

line at the project web server.

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Final Review

SUTRA: project statusSUTRA: project status

WE ARE DONE …….–Final Report, final version–Final Cost Statements–Deliverable updates–Exploitation (continuing)

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Final Review

SUTRA: achievementsSUTRA: achievements• Methodology development• Tool integration, model cascade

(7 incl. fuzzy logic expert system)

• Case studies (6 out of 7)• Assessment economics, air quality, public health

• Analysis, benchmarking• Reporting• Exploitation: on-line results, data

bases and analysis tools

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Final Review

SUTRA: achievementsSUTRA: achievementsExploitation: • on-line results and reports• City data base with 70+ European

cities 40+ indicators, on-line benchmarking tool

• SUTRA cities: all indicators and scenario results

• SUTRA cities: on-line city level air quality modeling, population exposure

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 1:• A framework of (79) indicators

that define a common language, interface between the models, and the basic results for policy-level DSS

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsDRIVING FORCES (10)

• Demography (3)• Land Use (3)• Economy (4)

PRESSURES (26)• Transportation Demand (3)• Fossil Fuel Consumption (3)• Pollutant Emissions (20)

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsSTATE (23)

• Air Quality (21)• Stress Indicators (2)

IMPACTS (14)• Economic Costs (4)• Health Impacts (5)• Accidents (3)• Time Loss (2)

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: Results

RESPONSES (6)• Car Occupancy (2)• Public Transport Share (1)• New Technology Penetration (3)

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 2: Modeling tools1. MARKAL techno-economic energy

model2. VISUM transportation model3. TREM emission model4. VADIS street canyon model5. AirWare city-level air quality model6. OFIS regional ozone model7. Assessment tools: population

exposure, public health, economics

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 3: Common ScenariosDefined as relative change

from the baselineDefined in terms of:Demographic, economic,

technological, land use indicators

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 3: Common Scenarios1. Baseline (2000)2. Dynamic, young, virtuous3. Dynamic, young, vicious4. Stagnating, old, virtuous5. Stagnating, old, vicious

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsCommon scenarios:

SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4

Demographic Changes + + - -Economic Structural Changes + + - -Technological Changes + - + -Land Use Changes + - + -

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 4: City Case Studies

1.Buenos Aires2.Gdansk3.Geneva4.Genoa5.Lisbon6.Tel Aviv 7.Thessaloniki

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: Resultsbaseline - private transport

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Period

veh.

km.d

ay-1

TLE1THE1TESTEMTEH1TEE3CGTEE2CG

TEE1CGTEE1CDTE8T39T2B

baseline - public transport

0

20

40

60

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Period

veh.

km.d

ay-1

TT1

TS1

TC1

TB1

TAM2

TA1

T4G

MARKAL:energy/techno-economicoptimisation

• Technology mix,• Energy consumption, • Costs

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsVISUM:Transportation modeling

Translates O/D matrix intoTrips, vehicle frequency, speeds, ……

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsTREM:Emission model

Translates fleet compositionAnd vehicle frequencies, speed, cold starts, into emissions of:CO, SO2,NOx, PM10

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsVADIS:Street canyon model

Translates emissions and meteorology, building structure into ambient air quality (dynamic, 24 hrs)

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsAirWare:City level AQ model

Translates emissions And meteorology into a city-wideambient air pollution estimate (1, 24 hrs,seasonal, yearly average)

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsOFIS:

regional ozone Model

Emissions (NOx, VOC) and long-term meteorology

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsStep 5:Assessment Population exposure• Public health• Economic assessment

BASE C1 C2 C3 C4 S1 S2 S3 S4MORTALITY [number of

dephs/year] 15365 30978 15365 15365 15365 30978 15365 15365 15364,74MORBIDITY [number of days lost in a year, per

capita] 0,186 0,23 0,1857 0,1857 0,1857 0,23 0,1857 0,186 0,185747

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsMulti-criteriaanalysis:

Discrete referencepoint approach, interactive selection of criteria (indicators)and constraints.

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Final Review

SUTRA: ResultsSUTRA: ResultsBenchmarking

70+ cities merged from several data bases, 40+ indicators

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Final Review

SUTRA: OutlookSUTRA: OutlookEXPLOITATION:• On-line results, data bases and

tools as dissemination and marketing instrument (ASP basis in ongoing eContent project Env-e-City)

• Approaching new cities (INTERREG, ASIA-URBS, UNEP, WHO, … direct marketing)

• SUTRA – the book

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Final Review

Agenda and ScheduleAgenda and ScheduleMorning session, 09:00-12:30

  Introduction and framework

  1 Introduction, overview ESS

  2 Framework: indicators and scenarios FEEM  3 Framework: techno-economic modeling UGE

  The tools  4 Transportation modeling PTV

  5 AQ modeling: emission and models UAV