Sustainable rural populations: the case of two National Park areas

Sustainable rural populations: the case of two

National Park areasAlan MarshallLudi Simpson

Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research

1.Introduction

• Population sustainability is an important issue in National Parks in the UK

• “If young people and key workers cannot afford to buy accommodation within park boundaries then local communities may suffer economic and social decline”

(Cairncross et al, 2001)

1. Introduction• Population projections highlight the problem for

policymakers

• Research Questions:• If recent trends what will be the impact on the

demographic characteristics of National Parks?• What is the nature of the migration age/sex

profile in the two parks and its impact on population change?

• What policy implications follow on from the projections?

2. National Parks in the UK

• National parks in England and Wales were set up by the National Parks and Access to Countryside Act (1949)

• Conservation of landscape • Promotion of public understanding and

enjoyment of the special qualities of the Parks• Since 1995 - a duty to seek to foster the

economic and social well-being of their local communities

2. National Parks in the UK• In Scotland National parks established in

2000

• A primary aim is the promotion of “sustainable economic and social development of the area's communities”

• Tension between landscape conservation and social and economic well-being

• Is there a need for more affordable housing?

2. National Parks

Demographic characteristics• PDNP population: 38,000• CNP population: 16,000

Compared with UK and surrounding districts:• Older• Predominantly white• Higher proportions of retired and self employed• Lower proportion of social housing• Smaller average household size• Higher proportions of holiday/second homes

3. Data and methodology

• Standard population and household projection methods. Extended to labour force for PDNP

• Population projections use the cohort component methodology

• Age/sex headship and economic activity rates • POPGROUP projection software used to create

projections.• Method requires very detailed data (single year

of age and sex detail for each component)

3. Data and methodologyIssues:

Non standard boundaries

• Estimation using proportions based upon residential addresses

Small area estimation - Data availability and robustness of demographic rates

• Use local data where possible to calibrate detailed schedules from relevant reference populations (wards, districts or national).

3. Data and methodologyPopulation projections

• Base population: • 2001 census (table CAS001)• Fertility and mortality:• GAD 2004 projections of age/sex specific fertility

and mortality rates• Vital statistics (output areas): estimates of

numbers of births and deaths in park areas (2001-4)

• Migration: • age/sex schedule based on in and out migration

in the year before the census

3. Data and methodologyHousehold projections• DCLG projected headship rates - PDNP• GROS projected headship rates - CNP• Census 2001 park estimates of household

numbers in each DCLG/GROS category Communal establishment population (Census 2001)

Economic activity projections (PDNP only)• ONS projected economic activity rates• Census 2001 park estimates of numbers

economically active

4. Results

CNP population change between 2001-25 and CNP household change between 2001-16All PDNP characteristics show change between 2001-26

Pop change (%)

HH change (%)

Economic activity change (%)

60+ population change (%)

PDNP -15.3% -1.1% -36% +57%

CNP +9% +20% n/a +91%

200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 2500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90+

Cairngorms National Park Projections: Age PyramidComparison of population forecast for 2001 with 2025

MalesFemales

Red shows an excess in 2001 Blue shows an excess in 2025

2001 – 26% 60+2025 – 45% 60+

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400 500

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90+

Peak National Park Projections: Age PyramidComparison of population forecast for 2001 with 2026

Males Females

Red shows an excess in 2001 Blue shows an excess in 2026

2001 – 26% 60+2026 – 49% 60+

4. Results: Migration profileTotal projected net migrants (2001-2024)

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

Age

Mig

rant

s

PP total net migrants CNP total net migrants

Out migration young adultsCNP: -1570PDNP: -7156

In migration at older agesCNP +3645 (35-55)PDNP: +2457 (38-64

Net effect over all agesCNP: +4168PDNP: +405

4. Results – PDNP components of change

PDNP: Components of population change 2001-2026

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Year

Num

ber

of p

eopl

e

Natural change Net migration Population change

4. Results – CNP components of change

CNP: Components of population change 2001-2026

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Year

Num

ber

of p

eopl

e

Natural change Net migration population change

4. Results: PDNP - Zero net migration and Natural change

projectionsProjection 2001

population2026 population

% Change

% Population 60 and over

Zero net migration

35,157 30,591 -17.6 % 50.0 %

Natural change

35,157 32,772 -8.4% 40.0 %

4. Results: PDNP Alternative scenarios

Projection % Population change

% Working age pop change

Census based -15% -38%

48 dwellings p/a -6.3% -29%

95 dwellings p/a 1.1% -22%

150 dwellings p/a

9.9% -13%

4. Results: Household projections

• Relative to the population change number of households projected to increase

• Elderly population more likely to live in single person households

• Lower household sizes projected nationally

5. Discussion: Policy implications

• Aging of population a real concern

• Tackle the out migration 16-35 age range

• Affordable housing

• Attractiveness of the Park to the young

• Further research – why are young people moving out?

Thank you!

Any Questions/comments