Sustainable Mobility Trends around the World - Dario Hidalgo - EMBARQ

Sustainable Mobility Trends around the World

Darío Hidalgo, PhD

Director Research and Practice EMBARQ

We Insist in a Paradigm Shift

Moving Cars Moving People

Global Report

on Human

Settlements

2013

http://www.unhabitat.

org/content.asp?type

id=19&catid=555&cid

=12336

We think we have it clear how

Avoid Shift Improve

Quantity and length of motorized trips

To the most efficient modes

Technology and operations

But not enough change is happening

Why?

Dispersed single land

use

Increased urban area

Inncreased Motorization

[Predicton of Vehicular Flows]

Provision of Road

Capacity

Soultion of Obesity

Eating

Lack of Exercise

Getting

FAT

Expanding the Size of The Pants

Lewis Mumford 1895 - 1990

Some champions of putting cities on “diet”

Political Will – Community Support

Technical Capacity to Plan, Implement,

Improve

Finance – Infrastructure and Operations

Capturing the Trends

Keys for a paradigm shift

Something is already happening to our younger

genrations

Proportion of licensed drivers by age (1998-2008)

Driving is not as cool as it used to be

Sivak and Schoettle, 2011

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/86680/102764.pdf

Passenger Car Travel (1990=100) Peak Travel?

Source: International Transport Forum 2012

Photo by Alan Crawford, http://www.bikeleague.org/

Cycling on the Rise - USA

http://www.bikeleague.org/content/acs-

bike-commuting-continues-rise

Really shy compared with Western Europe

http://www.fietsberaad.nl/library/repository/bestanden/Fietsberaad_

publicatie7_Engels.pdf

http://citymaus.tumblr.com/post/1986376111/cphbikehighways

New trends picking up

Vehicle demand management

Congestion pricing – emerging

Year

Received wide implementation due to EU’s health-based air

quality standard;

Additional 100 EU cities will implement LEZs

Low emission zones - tipping in European Union

Caps the number of new vehicle registrations

Formats

Beijing, Guiyang – Lottery

Singapore, Shanghai – Auction

Guangzhou and Tianjin – Auction and Lottery

Vehicle quota system – on the rise in China

Year

http://churumuri.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/11july07kpn78.jpg

TransMilenio, Bogotá, 104 km 2 million pax/day

Metro rail - tipping in China

London 1863;

189 cities - 10,500 kilometers - 112 million pax/day; 189 Cities

10,500 km

112 MM pax/day

168 Cities

4,424 km

31 MM pax/day

Global Growth of Car Sharing 2000-2012

Urban design for access

Multimodal Integration

Touch and ride with the

newest innovation from

Google. Photo by yoshinari.

The future is not what

it used to be; we see

some indications of

change, but not

enough is happening!

Our Role

www.bogotacomovamos.org

Today 2041Automobility Sustainable Transport

Population (millions) 5.4 13.2 13.2

Trips (millions/yr) 5.6 39.75 39.75

Area (Sq. Km.) 1330 6484 3242

Emissions(million Tons CO2/yr) 0.33 12.32 1.97

Traffic Fatalities (per yr) 175 5,232 1,225

Ahmedabad – Future Scenarios

If all of this happens you end up with very

different cities: liveable, affordable, safe

And a very different planet

42,971

33,194

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Ro

ad T

rave

l (B

illio

n V

eh

-Km

)

4 Degree Scenario 2 Degree Scenario

Source: IEA (2012) Energy Technology Perspectives

22,8% reduction in

vehicle-km

USD 20 Trillion Savings

With 1.3 million people not killed in traffic

3,783,009

5,098,418

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Wo

rld

wid

e a

nn

ual

tra

ffic

fat

alit

ies

2 Degree Scenario 4 Degree Scenario

Source: EMBARQ Analysis, Duduta and Hidalgo (2013)

1.315.409 lives/year

saved due to the

reduction in VKT

Streets for people not roads for cars

Thank You! ¡Muchas Gracias! धन्यवाद

http://gehlarchitects.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/header.jpg