Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation

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By: Frank Spencer MSc(Eng)

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Agenda

Introduction

Current Energy Scenarios Future Energy – Business as Usual

Sustainability Issues

Future Energy – Sustainable

Key Goals for Sustainable Energy 

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Current Energy Demand

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Current Electricity Supply

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Future –

Business as Usual

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2003 2050

      P      J Other

Liquid

Electricity 

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Sustainability - Electricity Capacity Issues

Demand increasing

Price increasing Price inconsistent with long term cost

Demand targeting + steep penalties

High Carbon and other emissions (pollution)

High transmission losses to the Cape

Coal is a finite resource

Nuclear option massively expensive

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Sustainability –

Liquid Fuels

Oil Supply & Costs

Fuel production shortfall by 2012 Tourism Impacts

Paraffin dangerous and inefficient

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Sustainability –

Transport

Inefficient – many cars, low occupancy 

Inefficient - busses with poor aerodynamics & engines Rail (or BRT) best - not used extensively as it could

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Sustainability –

Carbon Coal & oil based energy = CO2e emissions

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Sustainable Future - Solar

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Sustainable Future - Wind

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Sustainable Future - Biomass

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Sustainable Future –

Mini-hydro

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Biomass Cogen

Hydro

Municipal WastePumped Storage

Solar PV off grid

Solar PV grid con.

Solar Th Elec no st.

Solar Th Elec with st.

Ocean EnergyWind High CF

Wind Medium CF

Imp Ren Energy

New NuclearNew foss mid and pk 

New Fossil Base

Exist mid and peak 

Existing Base

Transformation Results: Capacity

Scenario: Prog Ren Ref Dem, Capacity: All Capacities

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

9,5009,000

8,500

8,000

7,500

7,000

6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,0002,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

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Sustainable Future

0

100

200

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400

500

600

700

800

900

2003 2050BAU 2050SUS

      P      J

Efficiency 

Other

Biofuels

Liquid

Electricity 

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Renewables vs Fossil

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Production Split 2050

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Goals - Production Local Renewable Energy Production

Large Scale Renewables

SWH

Biogas

“Virtual” Power Stations – Energy Efficiency 

Support IPPs / On-site production

 Jobs Low energy consumption / carbon emission

High energy production

Carbon trading /tax

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Goals - Consumption Energy Saving Plan

Energy Efficiency 

Heat recovery, HVAC, geysers, motors, lighting, etc Efficient Buildings – SANS204 / Green Star

 Variable Tariffs

Smart Meters

Efficient Cooking

Local is lekker

Transport interventions

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