SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - A MAJOR CHALLENGE TO AVIATION INDUSTRY

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - A MAJOR CHALLENGE TO - A MAJOR CHALLENGE TO THE AVIATION INDUSTRYTHE AVIATION INDUSTRY

By: By: MAHMOOD MANZOORMAHMOOD MANZOOR

PRESENTED IN 9PRESENTED IN 9THTH IRANIAN SOCIETY OF QUALITY IRANIAN SOCIETY OF QUALITY MANAGERS/14MANAGERS/14THTH ASIA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL ASIA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

ORGANIZATION CONFERENCEORGANIZATION CONFERENCEAUGUST 23-25 ,2008 - TEHRAN, IRANAUGUST 23-25 ,2008 - TEHRAN, IRAN

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

MEET PRESENT NEEDS WITHOUT MEET PRESENT NEEDS WITHOUT COMPROMISING FUTURE NEEDSCOMPROMISING FUTURE NEEDS

NATURAL CAPITALNATURAL CAPITAL ‘‘UNSUSTAINABLE SITUATION’ UNSUSTAINABLE SITUATION’ CONSUMPTION SHOULD MATCH CONSUMPTION SHOULD MATCH

NATURALNATURAL REPLENISHMENT REPLENISHMENT LONG-TERM DEGRADATION IMPLIES LONG-TERM DEGRADATION IMPLIES

EXTINCT OF HUMANITYEXTINCT OF HUMANITY

AVIATION INDUSTRYAVIATION INDUSTRY

AN INNOVATIVE INDUSTRYAN INNOVATIVE INDUSTRY DRIVES GLOBAL PROGRESS & DRIVES GLOBAL PROGRESS &

FORGES LINKSFORGES LINKS 2000 AIRLINES, 23000 AIRCRAFT, 2000 AIRLINES, 23000 AIRCRAFT,

3750 AIRPORTS3750 AIRPORTS 2.2 B PAX, 35% OF TRADE GOODS2.2 B PAX, 35% OF TRADE GOODS 32 M JOBS WORLDWIDE32 M JOBS WORLDWIDE CONTRIBUTES 8% (US$ 3557B) TO CONTRIBUTES 8% (US$ 3557B) TO

WORLD GDPWORLD GDP

GROWTH FORECASTSGROWTH FORECASTS

PRESENT GROWTH TO CONTINUE PRESENT GROWTH TO CONTINUE TILL 2011TILL 2011

INT’L PAX AAGR OF 5.1%INT’L PAX AAGR OF 5.1% DOMESTIC PAX AAGR OF 5.3%DOMESTIC PAX AAGR OF 5.3% INT’L AIRFREIGHT AAGR OF 4.8%INT’L AIRFREIGHT AAGR OF 4.8% VOLATILITY EXISTS: SECURITY, FUEL VOLATILITY EXISTS: SECURITY, FUEL

PRICES & ECONOMYPRICES & ECONOMY

ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMSENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

PROBLEMS OF SUCCESSPROBLEMS OF SUCCESS GROWING ENVIRONMENTAL GROWING ENVIRONMENTAL

CONCERNSCONCERNS GLOBAL, REGIONAL & LOCALGLOBAL, REGIONAL & LOCAL AIRCRAFT NOISE EMISSIONSAIRCRAFT NOISE EMISSIONS LOCAL AIR QUALITYLOCAL AIR QUALITY AIRCRAFT ENGINE EMISSIONSAIRCRAFT ENGINE EMISSIONS END-OF-LIFE AIRCRAFT DISPOSALEND-OF-LIFE AIRCRAFT DISPOSAL

AIRCRAFT NOISE EMISSIONSAIRCRAFT NOISE EMISSIONS

PERCEPTION DEPENDS ON PERCEPTION DEPENDS ON INTENSITY, FREQUENCY & TIMEINTENSITY, FREQUENCY & TIME

30M PEOPLE EXPOSED TO ‘NOISE 30M PEOPLE EXPOSED TO ‘NOISE NUISANCE’ WORLDWIDENUISANCE’ WORLDWIDE

MITIGATION MEASURES REQUIREDMITIGATION MEASURES REQUIRED SOURCES: AIRCRAFT MAINT, T/O & SOURCES: AIRCRAFT MAINT, T/O &

LANDING, SERVICESLANDING, SERVICES FUTURE THREATS TO CONTINUEFUTURE THREATS TO CONTINUE

MITIGATION MEASURESMITIGATION MEASURES

AT SOURCE:AT SOURCE: TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESSTECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS LOW-NOISE COMPONENT LOW-NOISE COMPONENT

TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY 75% NOISE REDUCTION ACHIEVED75% NOISE REDUCTION ACHIEVED STANDARDS MADE STRINGENTSTANDARDS MADE STRINGENT NNC, CHAPTER 2, 3 & 4 AIRCRAFTSNNC, CHAPTER 2, 3 & 4 AIRCRAFTS ADDITIONALADDITIONAL RESEARCH UNDERWAYRESEARCH UNDERWAY

MITIGATION MEASURESMITIGATION MEASURES

ALONG THE NOISE PATH:ALONG THE NOISE PATH: LAND-USE PLANNINGLAND-USE PLANNING NOISE ABATEMENT OPERATIONS NOISE ABATEMENT OPERATIONS

AT AFFECTED PLACES: AT AFFECTED PLACES: RESTRICTIONSRESTRICTIONS NOISE CHARGESNOISE CHARGES CONCEPT OF ‘BALANCED APPROACH’CONCEPT OF ‘BALANCED APPROACH’

LOCAL AIR QUALITYLOCAL AIR QUALITY

GROUND-LEVEL OZONE & SMOGGROUND-LEVEL OZONE & SMOG INCREASE RESPIRATORY PROBLEMSINCREASE RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS CONTRIBUTORS: NOX, VOC, CO & PMCONTRIBUTORS: NOX, VOC, CO & PM SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS MADESIGNIFICANT PROGRESS MADE TRADE-OFFs INHERENT IN AIRCRAFT TRADE-OFFs INHERENT IN AIRCRAFT

DESIGNDESIGN EMISSION RELATED CHARGESEMISSION RELATED CHARGES RESEARCH UNDERWAYRESEARCH UNDERWAY

AIRCRAFT ENGINE EMISSIONSAIRCRAFT ENGINE EMISSIONS

AIRCRAFT ENGINES PRODUCE AIRCRAFT ENGINES PRODUCE EMISSIONS AT ALTITUDESEMISSIONS AT ALTITUDES

CONTRIBUTE TO GHG LEVELS & CONTRIBUTE TO GHG LEVELS & GLOBAL WARMINGGLOBAL WARMING

CONDENSATION TRAILS PRODUCE CONDENSATION TRAILS PRODUCE CIRRUS CLOUDSCIRRUS CLOUDS

INCREASE IN CO2, CH4 & NOX INCREASE IN CO2, CH4 & NOX LEVELSLEVELS

FUTURE CONCERNS DUE TO FUTURE CONCERNS DUE TO CONTINUED GROWTHCONTINUED GROWTH

MITIGATION MEASURESMITIGATION MEASURES

TARGET: CARBON-NEUTRAL GROWTHTARGET: CARBON-NEUTRAL GROWTH

TECHNOLOGY: TECHNOLOGY: SHORT-TERM, MEDIUM-TERM & SHORT-TERM, MEDIUM-TERM &

LONG-TERM MEASURESLONG-TERM MEASURES

OPERATIONS:OPERATIONS: OPTIMAL CRUISE ALTITUDEOPTIMAL CRUISE ALTITUDE MINIMUM DISTANCE ROUTESMINIMUM DISTANCE ROUTES

MITIGATION MEASURESMITIGATION MEASURES

INFRA-STRUCTUREINFRA-STRUCTURE AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENTAIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ‘‘SINGLE-EUROPEAN SKY’ & ‘NEXT-SINGLE-EUROPEAN SKY’ & ‘NEXT-

GEN AIR TRANSPORT SYSTEM’GEN AIR TRANSPORT SYSTEM’

ECONOMIC MEASURESECONOMIC MEASURES EMISSION TRADINGEMISSION TRADING

NEW FUELS FOR TOMORROW’S NEW FUELS FOR TOMORROW’S AIRCRAFTAIRCRAFT

AVIATION INDUSTRY's PRIME AVIATION INDUSTRY's PRIME CONCERN: HIGH FUEL PRICESCONCERN: HIGH FUEL PRICES

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS: ADDITIONAL CONCERNS: ENVIRONMENT & ENERGY SECURITYENVIRONMENT & ENERGY SECURITY

FUEL PRICE IS 20% OF AIRLINE FUEL PRICE IS 20% OF AIRLINE OPERATING COSTOPERATING COST

‘‘BURNING’ ISSUE: SPIRALING FUEL BURNING’ ISSUE: SPIRALING FUEL PRICESPRICES

SOLUTION: ALTERNATIVE FUELSOLUTION: ALTERNATIVE FUEL   

ALTERNATIVE FUELS - HISTORYALTERNATIVE FUELS - HISTORY

ALTERNATIVE FUELS NOT NEW ALTERNATIVE FUELS NOT NEW CONCEPTCONCEPT

EARLY JET ENGINES USED EARLY JET ENGINES USED HYDROGENHYDROGEN

SYNTHETIC FUELS DEVELOPED IN SYNTHETIC FUELS DEVELOPED IN LATE 70sLATE 70s

PROSENE DEVELOPED DURING 1980-PROSENE DEVELOPED DURING 1980-8484

SEMI-SYNTHETIC SASOL DEVELOPED SEMI-SYNTHETIC SASOL DEVELOPED IN SOUTH AFRICA IN SOUTH AFRICA

COMPLEXITY OF PROBLEMCOMPLEXITY OF PROBLEM

DEVELOPMENT NOT EASY TO DEVELOPMENT NOT EASY TO RESOLVERESOLVE

AVIATION FUEL HAVE SPECIAL AVIATION FUEL HAVE SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICSCHARACTERISTICS

KEROSENE – THE BEST SOLUTION KEROSENE – THE BEST SOLUTION AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS ARE 'KEROSENE-AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS ARE 'KEROSENE-

SPECIFIC‘SPECIFIC‘ 'DROP-IN' REPLACEMENT REQUIRED'DROP-IN' REPLACEMENT REQUIRED SHOULD ALSO OFFER SHOULD ALSO OFFER

ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITSENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS

AIRCRAFT-END-OF-LIFEAIRCRAFT-END-OF-LIFE

AIRCRAFT DEPRECIATES IN VALUE AIRCRAFT DEPRECIATES IN VALUE OVER TIMEOVER TIME

DEPRECIATE TO ZERO VALUE IN 30 DEPRECIATE TO ZERO VALUE IN 30 YEARSYEARS

FACTORS: MAINT COSTS, LLPs & FACTORS: MAINT COSTS, LLPs & REGULATIONSREGULATIONS

6000 AIRCRAFT WILL REACH END-OF-6000 AIRCRAFT WILL REACH END-OF-LIFE IN 20 YEARSLIFE IN 20 YEARS

ENVIRONMENTALLY-SAFE DISPOSAL ENVIRONMENTALLY-SAFE DISPOSAL ESSENTIALESSENTIAL

AVIATION INDUSTRY’s RESPONSEAVIATION INDUSTRY’s RESPONSE

INITIATIVES TAKEN-UP BY AVIATION INITIATIVES TAKEN-UP BY AVIATION INDUSTRY:INDUSTRY:

WINGNet FUNDED BY UK EPSRCWINGNet FUNDED BY UK EPSRC PRODUCT STEWARDSHIP (EXTENDED PRODUCT STEWARDSHIP (EXTENDED

PRODUCT RESPONSIBILITY)PRODUCT RESPONSIBILITY) AIRBUS INITIATED PROJECTS: AIRBUS INITIATED PROJECTS:

PAMELA & TARMACPAMELA & TARMAC BOEING INITIATED PROJECT: AFRABOEING INITIATED PROJECT: AFRA

NEW QUALITY ROLESNEW QUALITY ROLES

QUALITY MANAGERS SHOULD:QUALITY MANAGERS SHOULD: ENSURE ENVIRONMENT NOT ENSURE ENVIRONMENT NOT

SACRIFICED FOR GROWTHSACRIFICED FOR GROWTH MOVE FROM TACTICAL TO MOVE FROM TACTICAL TO

STRATEGIC THINKINGSTRATEGIC THINKING ACT AS ENVIRONMENTALISTSACT AS ENVIRONMENTALISTS ADAPT TO LIFE-CYCLE THINKING ADAPT TO LIFE-CYCLE THINKING

CONCEPTCONCEPT ENSURE AIRCRAFT LIFE-CYCLE IS ENSURE AIRCRAFT LIFE-CYCLE IS

ECOLOGICAL ECOLOGICAL

NEW QUALITY ROLESNEW QUALITY ROLES

QUALITY MANAGERS SHOULD:QUALITY MANAGERS SHOULD: ADDRESS ENVIRONMENT IN EARLY ADDRESS ENVIRONMENT IN EARLY

DESIGN STAGESDESIGN STAGES USE ECO-FRIENDLY PARTS IN USE ECO-FRIENDLY PARTS IN

AIRCRAFT DESIGNAIRCRAFT DESIGN ADHERE TO GOVERNMENTAL ADHERE TO GOVERNMENTAL

GUIDELINESGUIDELINES ENSURE AVIATION INDUSTRY ENSURE AVIATION INDUSTRY

MAXIMIZES USE OF 'ENVIRONMENTAL MAXIMIZES USE OF 'ENVIRONMENTAL CAPACITY' CAPACITY'

THANK YOUTHANK YOU