Sustainable Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy (SCAMP)

Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentM I N D

Sustainable Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy (SCAMP)

Using the Sustainomics-based Action Impact Matrix (AIM) Approach

Mohan MunasingheVice Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva

Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), Colombo Honorary Energy Advisor, Government of Sri Lanka, Colombo

Visiting Professor, Yale University, USA


1. Brief overview of SCAMP methodology

2. SD-AM integration using the Action Impact Matrix (AIM) -process and application

3. Post-AIM analysis of macro-and micro-linkages




Climate Change Development

`Integrated

CC-SDStrategy

Former Viewpoint – AR1

Desired Viewpoint (policy relevant) – AR4

Climate Change

Development


Rad

iativ

eFo

rcin

g

Climate

System

Feedbacks

Human and

Natural Systems

Human Actions Causing GHG Emissions

Climate Domain Sustainable Development Domain

FeedbacksDifferent

Socio-economic

Development

Paths

AtmosphericGHG Emission

and Concentration

Scenarios

Climate Change Stresses

Dri

vers

Non

-clim

ate

Stre

sses

Feed

back

s

Global Level: SD-CC cyclic links


Rad

iativ

eFo

rcin

g

Climate

System

Feedbacks

Human and

Natural Systems

Human Actions Causing GHG Emissions

Climate Domain Sustainable Development Domain

FeedbacksDifferent

Socio-economic

Development

PathsMiti

g ati o

n

AtmosphericGHG Emission

and Concentration

Scenarios

Climate Change Stresses

Ada

ptat

ion

AdaptiveCapacity

MitigativeCapacity

Econ. Soc. Envir.

Non

-clim

ate

Stre

sses

Feedbacks

Feedbacks

Feed

back

s

Global Level: SD-CC cyclic links


Development- Sectors (Agriculture, Energy, Industry,

Transport, Health, etc.)- Systems (Socio-economic, ecological, etc.)

- Cross-cutting issues (Poverty, equity, etc.)

Sustainable Dev.

Social, Economic, Environm

ental)

Environment

(natural variability)

CC

SCAMP Challenge: Linking CC response to National Development

ImpactsAdaptationMitigation


SCAMP is based on Sustainomics PrinciplesThe SCAP approach is based on the sustainomics framework [1], which

draws on the following principles:1. MDMS approach – sustainable development is defined as a process

(rather than an end point), while the step-by-step approach of “making development more sustainable” (MDMS) becomes the prime objective.

2. Sustainable development triangle - SD is viewed through three main domains or perspectives: social, economic and environmental.

3. Trans-boundary approach – analysis transcends conventional boundaries imposed by discipline, space, time, stakeholder viewpoints, and operationality.

4. Full cycle application of integrative tools – Action Impact Matrix (AIM) is the key link from initial data gathering to practical policy application and feedback.

[1] Proposed at 1992 Rio Earth Summit - see Munasinghe (1992) and Munasinghe (2002).


2. SD-CC Integration Using the Action Impact Matrix (AIM) -

process and application


Action Impact Matrix (AIM) MethodologyThe AIM methodology may be used to better understand interactions among key elements, at the country-specific level:(a) national sustainable development policies and goals; (b) climate change responses (adaptation and mitigation).The AIM approach analyses key economic-environmental-social interactions to identify potential barriers to making development more sustainable (MDMS) - including climate change. It also helps to determine high priority macro strategies and micro policies in economic, environmental and social spheres, that facilitate implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation to overcome the effects of climate change.Thus, the AIM helps to integrate CC within SD. It has been used since the early 1990s to link macroeconomic policies and environment.


AIM ProcessThe AIM methodology relies on a fully participative stakeholder exercise to generate the AIM itself. Up to 50 experts are drawn from government, academia, civil society and the private sector, who represent various disciplines and sectors relevant to both sustainable development and climate change. In the initial exercise, they usually interact intensively over a period of about two days, to build a preliminary AIM. This participative process is as important as the product (i.e., the AIM), since important synergies and cooperative team-building activities emerge. The collaboration helps participants to better understand opposing viewpoints, resolves conflicts, and ultimately develops a consensus that facilitates implementation of agreed policy remedies. On subsequent occasions, the updating or fine-tuning of the initial AIM can be done easily by the same group, since they are already conversant with the methodology.


Vulnerable Areas (VA)

National SD Goals and PoliciesEffect B

Step 1: DEV-AIM = Effect B(Development Effects on VA)

Step 1: VED-AIM = Effect A(VA Effects on Development)

Two matrices (DEV and VED) to analyse two-way SD-Adaptation Linkages: Step 1

Effect A


Climate Change


National SD Goals and PoliciesEffect B

Impact C

Step 2: DEV-AIM = Effect B + Impact C(Development Effects on VA)

Step 2: VED-AIM = Effect A + Impact C(VA Effects on Development)

Two matrices (DEV and VED) to analyse two-way SD-Adaptation Linkages: Step 2

Effect A


Brief Overview of the Application of Action Impact Matrix (AIM)

Method to Analyse SD-CC Links in Sri Lanka


Vulnerability and Adaptation


Key Steps in the AIM methodology1. Determine the most important national goals & policies2. Determine critical vulnerability and adaptation (VA) areas

relevant to climate change.3. Determine status of VA areas subject to only natural climate

variability4. Determine impacts of climate change on VA areas 5. Identify how goals/policies might affect VA areas.6. Identify how VA areas might affect goals/policies.7. Prioritize most important interactions and determine

appropriate remedial policies and measures 8. Perform more detailed studies and analysis of key interactions

and policy options identified above.


Employment(D)

Food Security(C)

Poverty alleviation(B)

Growth(A)

Dev. Goals/Policies

(4)Health

(3)Water

Resources

(2)Industrial Activity

(1) Agricultural

output

SocialEnvironmentalEconomic


Building the AIM – Step 1: Identify Rows and ColumnsRow Headings: key national macro-economic goals and policies.Column Headings: key vulnerable areas (VA), and associated economic, environmental and social indicators.


Employment(D)

Food Security(C)


Growth(A)

Dev. Goals/Policies

-2(S1) Status (with climate change)

-1(S0) Status (only natural variability)

(4)Health

(3)Water

Resources

(2)Indust. Activity(1) Agricultural output

3 = HIGH2 = MODERATE1 = LOW

SocialEnviron.Economic+ means beneficial- means adverse

Key Vulnerabilities, Impacts and Adaptation (VIA)

Building the AIM – Steps 2&3: Natural Var. & CC Determine VA status due to natural variability and climate change, respectively.


Employment(D)

Food Security(C)


Growth(A)

Dev. Goals/Policies

[-2] Agricultural output is likely to decline further with changing rainfall & temp. rise

(S1) Status (with climate change)

[-1] Agriculture is presently vulnerable

(S0) Status (only natural variability)

(4)Health

(3)Water

Resources



SocialEnviron.Economic+ means beneficial- means adverse


Building the AIM – Steps 2&3: Natural Var. & CC Determine VA status due to natural variability and climate change, respectively.


Detailed reasons for value of -2 for climate change impacts on agricultureBackgroundGlobal warming will lead to temperature increases and alterations in the hydrological cycle through increases in surface temperature and rates of evaporation, and in some regions, increases in precipitation. Changes in the total amount of precipitation and its frequency and intensity directly affect the magnitude and timing of run-off and the intensity of floods and droughts. Such changes will have significant impacts on agriculture. Climate change effects on agricultureClimate change will strongly influence water resources -- mean and extreme surface runoff, soil moisture and ground water levels, and changes in sea level and water quality (Dharmasena, 2004). These impacts have serious consequences on water resources management and environmental and socio-economic systems. Increasing concentration of GHG’s in the atmosphere cause rise in temperature, which in turn enhances potential and actual evapotranspiration. It is not certain how individual water catchment areas will respond to changing evaporation rates and precipitation. But, currently dry regions will be more sensitive to changes in climate. Small changes in temperature and precipitation could cause relatively large changes in run-off. Arid and semi-arid regions will therefore be particularly sensitive to reduced rainfall and to increased evaporation.RainfallAn increase in the duration of dry spells will not necessarily lead to an increased likelihood of low river flows and groundwater levels, since increases in precipitation may be experienced during other seasons. More probably, increased rainfall will lead to an increased likelihood of river flooding. Changes in seasonal patterns of rainfall may affect the regional distribution of both ground and surface water supplies. A study by Bandara and Wickramagamage (2004) found that annual rainfall at Nuwara Eliya and the western slopes of the highlands decreased significantly. On the western slopes, the decline was mainly during the SW monsoon period which provides most of the rain in this area. This area receives the highest annual rainfall, often exceeding 5000mm, and also contributes to the largest volume of water for hydro and irrigation. There is also a clear indication of dry zone expansion and wet zone shrinking (Bandara and Wickramagamage, 2004).


Detailed reasons for value of -2 for climate change impacts on agricultureThe area under tea in the highlands has declined rapidly as these crops are significantly affected by dry spells (Bandara & Wickramagamage, 2004). However, in some areas such as Watawala and Hatton, tea production is benefited by decreased rainfall through a decline in pests and diseases associated with high rainfall.TemperatureZubair et al. (2004) found that in Sri Lanka there is a warming trend of 2.6ºC/100 years for annual maximum temperatures and 1.7ºC/100 years for annual minimum temperatures from 1961-2000. These trends in temperature are found to vary both regionally and seasonally. The South and the East of the Island is found to be warming faster than the North and the West (Zubair et al., 2004). There has been a significant increase in temperature in the highlands, notably Nuwara Eliya, during the last 100 years (Bandara & Wickramagamage, 2004). Asian Brown Cloud (ABC)Haze, a brownish layer of pollutants and particulates from increased use of fossil fuels, industrial emissions and biomass burning in Asia has resulted in the Asian Brown Cloud (ABC). The direct adverse effect of ABC is a reduction on solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface, thus resulting in a decrease in agricultural productivity due to decreased photosynthesis. A study by Swain and Herath(2004) shows a reduction in rice grain yield by 2-4% due to a 30% reduction in solar radiation under non-fertilised conditions and a reduction in yield by 12% under fertilized conditions. The impact of solar radiation reduction on rice crops is greater under fertilised conditions than non-fertilisedconditions. This increased aerosol radiative forcing causes reductions in rainfall. Percentage reductions are much larger in seasons (such as the intermonsoonal period) and regions (such as the dry zone) with small amounts of rainfall (Herath et al, 2004). ABC will decrease particularly day time temperature (Pathirana and Herath, 2004).


-1 Employment(D)

-2Food Security(C)

-2Poverty alleviation(B)

-1Growth(A)

Development Goals/Policies





(4)Health

(3)Water

Resources



SocialEnviron.Economic+ = beneficial- = adverse


Building the AIM – Step 4: Filling AED Matrix Cells Determine VA impacts on development goals and policies.

Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentM I N D-1 Employment(D)

-2Food Security(C)

-2Poverty alleviation(B)

[-1] Less agricult. income; Agr. Share of GNP <20%Growth(A)

Development Goals/Policies





(4)Health

(3)Water

Resources



SocialEnviron.Economic+ = beneficial- = adverse


Building the AIM – Step 4: Filling VED Matrix Cells Determine VA impacts on development goals and policies.


Detailed reasons for values of agriculture effects on growth [net -1]

(+1) Gains: Higher rainfall in the dry zone and higher temperatures in the highlands will increase production of rice and highland crops. Although climate changes may have some detrimental impacts on agricultural production, the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations could be beneficial. Plants grow as a result of photosynthesis - the mechanism whereby the plant converts carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into food. With higher levels of carbon dioxide stimulating the rate of photosynthesis, the growth rate and productivity of plants could be expected to increase.

(-2) Risks: CC leads to variations in spatial and seasonal distribution of rainfall. Higher intensity of rainfall during short spans of time leads to runoff. Long periods of drought will affect production. ABC reduces both inter-monsoonal rainfall and solar radiation, each of which will reduce crop yields. CC impacts complicates the ABC effect, making management of Yala and Maha seasonal cropping more difficult, and leading to lower production and growth.


Example: Priorities for Policy Analysis based on

Full VED-AIM and DEV-AIM


-1-100100110Privatisation(G)

-10-200000-1-1Budget Deficit Reduction(F)

-1-20-1-1000-1-2Trade & Globalisation(E)

-2-1-2-1-2-10-10-1Employment(D)

00-1-1-3-1-1-10-2Food Security(C)

-1-1-2-2-2-1-1-10-2Poverty alleviation(B)

-1-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1Growth(A)

Dev. Goals/Policies (+CC Impacts)

-1-1-1-2-3-2-2-2-1-2Status (+CC Impacts =>) (S1)

220-1-2-1-1-20-1Status (Nat. Variability)(S0)

Industries & Tour-ism

Infra-struct.

Human health

Poor communities

Water resour

ces

Wet-lands

& coastlecosystems

Bio-div.

(flora &

fauna)Deforestation

Hydro Power

Agric. Output

(10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)

Full Matrix (VED-AIM) : Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Effects on Development in Sri Lanka

Key Vulnerable Areas (VA)


11-1-2-3-2-2-2-1-2Status (+CC Impacts =>)(S1)

22000100Privatisation(G)

0-2-2-2-1-10-1Budget Deficit Reduction(F)

2210-1-1100Trade & Globalisation(E)

11-1-10-2Employment(D)

21-20-12Food Security(C)

11110-11Poverty alleviation(B)

222-1-1-2000-1Growth(A)

Dev. Goals/Policies (Natural var. only)

220-1-2-1-1-20-1Status (Natural Var.) (S0)

Industry & Tourism

InfrastrTransp. Comm-

unic.

Human

health

Poor communities

Water res.

(non-l. hydro)

Wetlands,

coast ecosystems

Bio-div.

(flora, fauna)

Forest Resources

Hydro Elec.

Agriculture

(10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)

Vulnerable & Adaptation (VA) Areas

Full Matrix (DEV-AIM) : Development Effects on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Sri Lanka


Example: Priorities for Policy Analysis based on VED-AIM and DEV-AIM

-3 and -2 values in cell C6: Water Res. Food Security suggests an area for further detailed research and modeling. For example, a specific model may be used to study the effects of climate change induced rainfall variations (as well as temperature rise and possible carbon fertilisation) on the most important types of crops (for a study using Ricardian agricultural modelling, see Seo, Mendelsohn and Munasinghe, 2005). Specific policy options could be simulated – e.g., measures to protect against floods and droughts, more efficient use of water in agriculture, use of drought resistant crops, dry zone, etc.


Mitigation


Mitigation AIM methodology

1. Determine the most important national goals and policies.2. Determine key mitigation options for climate change3. Identify how goals/policies might affect mitigation options4. Identify how mitigation options might affect goals/policies.5. Identify impacts of climate change on mitigation options and

on national development goals and policies6. Prioritize most important interactions and determine

appropriate remedial policies and measures (preliminary AIM).

7. Perform more detailed studies and analysis of key interactions and policy options identified in step 6 above.


MitigationOptions

National Sustainable

Development Goals & Policies

A

B

Step 1: MED-AIM = Effect A(Mitigation Effects on Development)

Step 1: DEM-AIM = Effect B(Development Effects on Mitigation)

Two matrices (MED and DEM) to analyse two-way SD-Mitigation Linkages: Step 1


MitigationOptions

National Sustainable

Development Goals & Policies

A

B

Step 2: MED-AIM = Effect A + Impact D(Mitigation Effects on Development)

Step 2: DEM-AIM = Effect B + Impact C(Development Effects on Mitigation)

Two matrices (MED and DEM) to analyse two-way SD-Mitigation Linkages: Step 2

Climate ChangeC D


Land use

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (CC)

Ren

ewab

le e

nerg

y

Dem

and

Side

M

anag

emen

t

Supp

ly S

ide

Man

agem

ent

Clea

n Te

chno

logy

Effic

ient

Te

chno

logy

Mob

ility

M

anag

emen

t

Pollu

tion

Prev

entio

n/C

ontro

l Te

chno

logi

es

Effic

ient

Res

ourc

e Ut

ilisa

tion

Ref

ores

tatio

n

CC Im

pact

s

Development Goals/PoliciesEconomic Growth -1 1 1 -2 -1 2 -1 1 1 -1

Poverty alleviation /rural development 2 1 -1

Food security (self reliance) 2 -2

Employment & education 1 -1 1 1 -1

Infrastructure 1 -2Sustainable management of natural resources 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 -2

Budget deficit reduction -1 1 1 -2 -1 1 -1 -1Good governance Water and sanitation 1 1 1 1 1 1 -2

Beneficial Effects (win-win: both CC and SD)Effects that are harmful

Energy/ Electricity

Mitigation Options

IndustryTransport

Sri Lanka: MED - Mitigation Effects on Development


Land use

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Rene

wab

le e

nerg

y

Dem

and

Side

M

anag

emen

t

Supp

ly S

ide

Man

agem

ent

Clea

n Te

chno

logy

Effic

ient

Te

chno

logy

Mob

ility

M

anag

emen

t

Pollu

tion

Prev

entio

n/C

ontro

l Te

chno

logi

es

Effic

ient

Res

ourc

e Ut

ilisa

tion

Refo

rest

atio

n

Development Goals/PoliciesEconomic Growth 1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 1

Poverty alleviation / Rural development 1 -1

Food security (self reliance) 1

Employment & education 1 0

Infrastructure 2

Sustainable management of natural resources -1 1 1 2

Budget deficit reduction -1 -2 -1 -1Good governance Water and sanitation 1

CC Impacts => -1 -1Beneficial Effects (win-win: both CC and SD)Effects that are harmful

Energy/ Electricity

Mitigation Options

IndustryTransport

Sri Lanka: DEM – Development Effects on Mitigation


Mitigation Policy Options & Recommendations

TRANSPORTMobility management (including Traffic management),Quality and service improvement of road network,Public Transport, Non Motorized Transport, and Inter Modal Choice

– Mobility Management has positive impact on most of the development goals. The high costs to be offset by external funding for carbon benefits



Reforestation including Agro forestry– Reforestation and agro forestry has positive

impact on food security and sustainable management of natural resources and most of the other development goals

– Poverty alleviation and rural development programmes should not undermine reforestation efforts and agro forestry



Renewable Energy– Significant impact on poverty alleviation especially

through dendro power– Rural development through access to energy and improvement

in the quality of life– More employment opportunities- dendro power

However in some cases sustainable management of natural resources is limiting the development of renewable energy resources, such as mini hydro in sensitive areas.

High cost of renewable energy to be offset by external funding for carbon benefits.


Mitigation Policy Option & Recommendations

Note:Clean Technologies such as LNG are good options for GHG mitigation. However, since the option is very costly it needs external funding


Sri Lanka Mitigation OptionsAreas/Needs for Research & Development

• Renewable Energy• Clean Technology for energy/electricity

Social benefits of Dendro & other renewable energy sources in rural areas

Impacts of hydro on Sustainable Management of Natural Resources

Evaluation of the long-term impact on cost of supply and the effect on national economy and quality of life


Sri Lanka Mitigation OptionsAreas/Needs for Research & Development

• Efficient Technology for transportStudy on transport planning and mobility management

• ReforestationResearch for identification of different Carbon Sinks Selection of appropriate type of species for reforestation and agro forestry


Integration of

SD-Adaptation-Mitigation


Summary ofFour AIMs used in SD-CC Analysis

VED = Vulnerable Areas Effects on Development

DEV = Development Effects on Vulnerable Areas

MED = Mitigation Effects on Development

DEM = Development Effects on Mitigation


Reforestation(H)Land Use

Efficient Resource Utilisation(H)

Pollution Prevention/Control Technologies(G)Industry

Mobility Management(F)

Efficient Technology(E)Trans-port

Clean Technology(D)

Supply Side Management(C)

Demand Side Management(B)

Renewable Energy(A)Energy/ Elec-tricity

Mitigation Options

Indust. &

Tourism

Infrast. Transp.Comm-

unic.

Human

health

Poor communities

Water res. (no

hydro)

Wet-lands, coast ecosy.

Bio-div.

(flora, fauna)

Forest Resources

Hydro Elec.

Agriculture

(10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)

Vulnerable & Adaptation (VA) Areas

Vulnerable Areas & Mitigation Options


3. Post-AIM analysis of Macro- and Micro- Linkages

Examples:1. CC-Macroeconomic analysis2. Adaptation and Mitigation project analysis


National Plans & Models (NSSD, PRSP & CGE

etc.)

Action Impact Matrix (AIM)

Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation &

Mitigation

Adaptation & Mitigation Projects and Policies

interactions of national plans with climate change policies.{

Sinks, mitigation & adaptation

Sca

le Is

sues

Nat’l

Local

Assessing linkages between national development plans and climate policy (adaptation and mitigation) using the Action Impact Matrix (AIM)


SD Analysis of Mitigation (and Adaptation) at the Macroeconomic/Sectoral Level

(general equilibrium analysis)

1. Macroeconomic/Sectoral Modeling

2. Environmental and Macroeconomic Analysis

3. Poverty/Income Distributional Analysis


1 2

5

3 4

CGEModels

ActionImpactMatrix(AIM)

SectoralModels

(e.g., Energy, agriculture, etc.)

Other MacroModels

(e.g., Econometric,Consistency, etc.)

EKCModel


MACROECONOMY (Multisectoral CGE)

TRANSPORT AGRIC-ULTURE & LAND USE

ENERGY URBAN-IND

ROAD RAIL

OTHER

ELEC-TRICITY

OIL

BIO-MASS

REGIONI

REGIONIII

REGIONII

Sri Lanka Integrated Assessment Model Structure


Sustainable Energy Development and Mitigation


BasicInput-Output

Table

Distribution of Income

SatelliteEnvironmental

Accounts

Envir.-Social LinksDistribution of Environmental

Impacts

Economic LinksEnvironmental-Economic Links

Economic-Social Links

Expanded National Income Accounts for SDSo

cial

Acc

o unt

ing

Mat

rix

(SA

M)

Source: Munasinghe (2001), Macroeconomics and Environment


National Plans & Models (NSSD, PRSP & CGE

etc.)

Action Impact Matrix (AIM)

Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation &

Mitigation

Adaptation & Mitigation Projects and Policies

interactions of national plans with climate change policies.{

Sinks, mitigation & adaptation

Sca

le Is

sues

Nat’l

Local

Assessing linkages between national development plans and climate policy (adaptation and mitigation) using the Action Impact Matrix (AIM)


Sector/Project Level Sustainable Development Assessment (SDA) of Mitigation

(and Adaptation)1. Economic/Financial Assessment (CBA)2. Environmental Assessment (EA)3. Social Assessment (SA)4. Poverty Assessment (PA)5. Technical Assessment (TA)6. Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)Choice of appropriate SD indicators is vital for SDA


Sectoral Level Example:

Power System Planning in Sri Lanka using SD indicators

Source: Meier and Munasinghe (1994)


Environmental Issues Define siting, technology & mitigation scenarios

Quantify Define additional scenarios

Apply valuation techniques

Economic analysis

Policy analysisTrade-off curves

Multi-criteria analysis

Define environmental

attributes

Economic valuation

No

No Yes

Economic Attribute (System NPV)

Sectoral Level Power Planning in Sri Lanka - Analytical Framework


Energy sector level indicators used for assessment

Employment creationSocial Impact

Biodiversity IndexBiodiversity Impact

SO2 and NOX emissionsAir Pollution

Population weighted incremental ambient concentrations of fine particulates and NOX

Health EffectsCO2 emissionsGlobal Warming

IndicatorImpact


Power System Planning in Sri Lanka: Multi-criteria AnalysisMCA with trade-off curves between economic costs and (a) biodiversity impacts; and (b) health impactsSource: Meier and Munasinghe (1994)


Sri Lanka GHG Mitigation Options• Supply Side

Fuel switching (coal to oil to gas)Increased power plant efficiency Renewables (biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc.)Carbon dioxide sequestration (long term?)Nuclear power (long term?)

• Demand SideTransportationCommercial and residential buildingsIndustry

• Land-Use, Land-Use Change and ForestryAfforestation, Reforestation and slowing DeforestationImproved Forest, Cropland and Rangeland ManagementAgroforestry

• Waste Management and Reduced Halocarbon Emissions


GHG Emissions Reduction

IncrementalCost

Carbon Price

SACC

Economic Ranking of Mitigation Options


Project Level Example

Assessing economic, social and ecological indicators of small hydro for climate

change mitigation in Sri Lanka

Primary Source: Morimoto R., and Munasinghe M. (2005) “Small hydropower projects and sustainable energy development in Sri Lanka”, Int. Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Vol.4.Summary: Munasinghe, M. (2002) “The sustainomics trans-disciplinary meta-framework for making development more sustainable: applications to energy issues”, Int. J. of Sustainable Dev.,Vol.4, No.2, pp.6-54.


Overview of study• Energy affects all three dimensions of sustainable development. • Reviews linkages between potential impacts of energy

production and consumption on sustainable development,. • Multi-criteria analysis used to assess the role of small

hydroelectric power projects in sustainable energy development.

• 3 key variables: Economic - electricity supply costs, Social -numbers of people resettled, Environmental - biodiversity loss)

• Analysis helps policy-makers compare and rank project alternatives more easily and effectively.

• The multi-dimensional analysis, which includes environmental and social variables, supplements cost benefit analysis which isbased on economic values alone.


Economic indicator usedAverage generation costs per unit generated per year [Ci/Qi] whereCi = total economic cost of project i Qi = quantity of electricity generated from project i This measure is equivalent to using net benefits per unit of generation: NBi/QiwhereNBi = (Bi – Ci) = net benefit from project i ;Bi = total benefit from project i ;and we assume that the total benefit per unit generated is the same for all projects compared: Bi/Qi

Another related measure would be the average generation costs per unit of GHG emissions reduced, assuming that each unit of hydro-electricity produced would reduce a unit of thermal generation and associated GHG emissions.


Environmental Indicator usedAverage biodiversity index value per unit of energy produced per year: Gi = Ei / [Hydroelectricity generated per year at site i]where Ei is the biodiversity index

Ei = ∑ wj. Aijj

where Aij is the area (hectares) of ecosystem of type j at site i, wj is relative biodiversity value of ecosystem type j

Another useful indicator is average biodiversity index value perhectare of affected landFi = Ei / [∑Aij] = Ei /[Total land area affected at site i]

j


Social Indicator used

Resettlement = Number of people resettled per unitof electricity generated per year

Minimising the number of people resettled due todam construction is an important social objective.


Figure 4. Average generation costs (AVC), biodiversity index (BDI), and number of resettled people (RE) by hydroelectric project. All indices are per kWh per year. Numbers of people resettled and the biodiversity index are scaled for convenience (by the multipliers 10-5 and 10-9 respectively). The values at the top of the graph indicate the annual energy generation in gigawatt hours (GWh).

28 11 159 210 209 20 149 114 390 512 22 78 161 34 50 83 42 18 123 79 113 143

Source: CEB (1987); CEB (1988); Meier and Munasinghe (1994)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

AGRA0

03DIY

A008

GING05

2GIN

G053

GING07

4HEE

N009

KALU

075

KELA

071

KOTM

033

KUKU

022

LOGG01

1M

AGA0

29M

AGU04

3MAH

A096

MAH

O007

MAH

W23

5M

AHW

287

NALA0

04SI

TA01

4SU

DU009

SUDU01

7UM

AO08

project

AVC (US cents/kWhyr)BDI/kWhyrRE/kWhyr

Project Level: Economic, social and ecological indicators for small hydro in Sri Lanka


Figure 5. Three dimensional MCA of sustainable development indicators forvarious hydropower options. Source: Morimoto, Munasinghe and Meier [2000]

Ave

rage

gen

erat

ion

cost

(US

cent

s/kW

hyr)

Number of resettled people / kWhyr

Biodiversity index / kWhyr

3-D MCA of SD indicators of small hydro for Mitigation (per unit of emissions reduced)



2. SD-AM integration using the Action Impact Matrix (AIM) -process and application

3. Post-AIM analysis of macro-and micro-linkages


Ancient Pali Blessing - MDMS“DEVO VASSATU KALENASASSA SAMPATTI HETU CAPHITO BHAVATU LOKO CA

RAJA BHAVATU DHAMMIKO”

“May the rains come in time,May the harvests be bountiful

May the people be happy and contendedMay the king be righteous”

Even in ancient times, a favourable environment, economic prosperity, social stability, and good governance, were well recognised as key factors for making development more sustainable.


Suggestions for Further Information1. Munasinghe, M. (2002) ‘The sustainomics trans-disciplinary

meta-framework for making development more sustainable: applications to energy issues’, International Journal of Sustainable Development, Vol. 4, No.2, pp.6-54.

2. Munasinghe, M., and Swart, R. (2005) Primer on Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Cambridge University Press, UK.

3. Meier, P., and Munasinghe, M. (2005) Sustainable Energy in Developing Countries, Edward Elgar Publishers, UK.

4. MIND (2004) Action Impact Matrix (AIM) Guide, MunasingheInstitute for Development, Colombo, Sri Lanka.

5. Website URL: <www.mindlanka.org>


M I N D

Environment

Society Economy

Munasinghe Institute for Development"making development more sustainable - MDMS“

10/1 De Fonseka Place, Colombo 5, Sri LankaPhone: +9411-255-1208; Fax: +9411-255-1608

E-mail: <[email protected]> ; Web: <www.mindlanka.org>

An Introduction


MIND ObjectivesMIND was established in the new millennium as a private, non-profit organization, to play a key role in nurturing communities of stakeholders and scholars to address major issues of Sustainable Development (SD) world-wide.

MIND provides a forum for stakeholders to understand the multi-dimensional nature of sustainable development, especially the SD triangle – based on social, economic, and environmental aspects. We promote balanced consideration of these three key dimensions.

MIND believes in the application of scientific knowledge to make development more sustainable (MDMS). We are committed to strengthening the linkages amongst civil society, the private sector and government,


Climate Change Capacity Development (C3D)Assist developing countries to build capacity to better understand,

analyse, and formulate policies to address climate change issues

PartnersENDA, Dakar, Senegal – Vulnerability & Adaptation ModuleERC, Cape Town, South Africa – Mitigation ModuleMIND, Colombo, Sri Lanka – Climate Change & Sustainable

Development ModuleUNITAR, Geneva, Switzerland – Coordination & Management

Ongoing Activities Training programme development (tools and methods like AIM)Development/implementation of ‘’Training of Trainersprogramme’’ by regional centres


Thank You Very Much

Sustainable Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy (SCAMP)

Documents