Sustainable agriculture under climate change in the Aral Sea Basin Maryse Bourgault 1 *, C.A. Madramootoo 1 , H.A. Webber 1 , G. Stulina 2 , M. Horst 2 , D.L. Smith 1 1. Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, McGill University * Current address: CSIRO, Plant Industry, Climate Adaptation Flagship, St. Lucia, Australia 2. Central Asia Scientific Research Institute of Irrigation (SANIIRI)
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Sustainable agriculture under climate change in the Aral Sea Basin. Maryse Bourgault
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Sustainable agriculture under climate change in the
Aral Sea Basin
Maryse Bourgault1*, C.A. Madramootoo1, H.A. Webber1, G. Stulina2, M. Horst2, D.L. Smith1
1. Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, McGill University
* Current address: CSIRO, Plant Industry, Climate Adaptation Flagship, St. Lucia, Australia
2. Central Asia Scientific Research Institute of Irrigation (SANIIRI)
Outline• The Aral Sea ecological disaster and
humanitarian crisis• Socio-politico-economic context of
agriculture in Uzbekistan• Possible solutions:
– Institutions for water management and other social changes (not covered here)
– Surface irrigation technologies– Crop rotations, choices and diversification
of agricultural production
ARAL SEA DISAPPEARANCE
2008NASA
1964
1997
1987
Humanitarian crisis
• Water and food contamination from water pollution and dust storms
• Incidence of diseases increased in terms of folds rather than percentages
• Lack of modern facilities• Depression and mental
health issues
CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate Change• Expected temperature increases in the basin: likely
to lead to heat stress• Conflicting evidence for precipitation changes
Climate Change• Expected temperature increases in the basin: likely
to lead to heat stress• Conflicting evidence for precipitation changes• Melting of glaciers: earlier and greater runoff in the
spring• Very likely increases in the frequency of heavy
precipitation events: flash floods and landslides
Savoskul et al. 2003
SOCIO-POLITICO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT OF AGRICULTURE
Uzbek agriculture
• Low governmental investment in agriculture
• State farms and agricultural assets
• Quotas for cotton and wheat
• Large uneducated rural population
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS:SURFACE IRRIGATION TECHNOLOGIES
Regulated Deficit Irrigation•When to irrigate? Depletion factor
Field Capacity
Recommended Moderate Stress
Large Stress
Wilting Point
0% 100%threshold
Slide by Heidi Webber
Alternate Furrow Irrigation
Alternate Furrow Irrigation versus Conventional Every Furrow Irrigation