Sustainability Outlook 2030: Environmental Future for IsraelMicrosoft PowerPoint - Ppt0000011.ppt [Read-Only] Author: 1 Created Date: 12/14/2010 2:15:18 PM ...

Mainstreaming SustainabilityMainstreaming Sustainability

Sustainability Outlook 2030:Sustainability Outlook 2030:

Environmental Future for IsraelEnvironmental Future for Israel

The Environmental Policy Center

Joint project with the Ministry for Environmental Protection

Supported by a philanthropic fund

Challenges for (longChallenges for (long--term) term)

policypolicy--makingmaking

�� Sometimes, we wait too long for evidence to justify action Sometimes, we wait too long for evidence to justify action (climate change, hazardous substances)(climate change, hazardous substances)

�� Sometimes, we act too quickly on new opportunities and oversee Sometimes, we act too quickly on new opportunities and oversee spillspill--over effects (biofuels)...over effects (biofuels)...

�� ... because attention is fragmented ... because attention is fragmented -- government is coherent in government is coherent in its parts, but not as a whole.its parts, but not as a whole.

�� Often, we approach the future on the basis of our experiences inOften, we approach the future on the basis of our experiences inthe past: policies function in the short, but not in the long ruthe past: policies function in the short, but not in the long run n (ecosystems)(ecosystems)

EEA EEA ““BLOSSOMBLOSSOM”” project 2008project 2008--

Agenda of the Ministry for Environmental ProtectionAgenda of the Ministry for Environmental Protection

Environmental

media

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Water

River

reclamation

* * * * * * *

Effluent

standards

* * * *

Water for

nature

* *

Pollution of

aquifers

* * * *

Air

Industry * * * * * * *

Transport * * * * * * * * *

Energy * * * * *

Climate change * * * *

Agendas of several major environmental NGOs in Israel 2007Agendas of several major environmental NGOs in Israel 2007--1010

2010200920082007

-SPNI-SPNISPNISPNIOpen spaces

SPNI- - - Biodiversity

- - IUED: Kinneret ()SPNI :Cliff shores

IUEDIUEDIUEDIUEDClean air/Climate change

IUED/SPNI- - - Planning reform

- SPNI/

ZALUL

- - Water

- - SPNISPNITransportation/Highway

6

IUEDIUEDIUEDIUED Recycling/Waste

Life and EnvironmentLife and EnvironmentEnvironmental justice

IUEDIUEDEnforcement

GLOBAL OUTLOOKS TO 2030

Sustainability OUTLOOK 2030 : Project schemeSustainability OUTLOOK 2030 : Project scheme

Review existing policy

packages

Experts

Indicators

Existing indicators

(CBS-issued July 2010)

(JIIS-November 2010)

New Indicators

(CBS through MOE)

(Beyond GDP)

Wellbeing Resource Capital

Scenarios

Revision of

scenarios BAU + 4

alternatives

Realistic

visions

Implications

for policy

intervention

4 alternative

scenarios 1st

draft

Policy packages

Expert

documents

Workshop 1: Expert

discussion on BAU scenario

Workshop 2: Expert

discussion on 4

alternative scenarios

Workshop 3: Expert

discussion on realistic

visions

Review

existing

scenarios

Issues identification

Opportunities and risks

Resiliencies and Vulnerability

3 Workshops: Expert

discussion on points for

intervention +policy

packages

Format for

expert

opinions

Identified +additional

experts

Business as usual

(BAU) scenario

Increasing pressures 2020Increasing pressures 2020

floorspace

20 m2 pc

40 m2 pc

Carownership

1000- ל300

1000- ל450

energy

42,678

95,580

Million kw/h

7million

8 millionpopulation

1975- 1.2

2000- 2.2

Km pcwaste

Natural Resource DepletionNatural Resource Depletion

space

water

היקף השטח הפתוח הנגרע בכל מחוז

בין השנים 1998-2003

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

דרוםירושליםתל אביבמרכז חיפהצפון

מחוזות משרד הפנים

ם)ונד) חטש

דלתא בין השנים 1998-2003

coast

Biodiversity

Openlandscape

Risk ManagementRisk Management

�� Climate changeClimate change

�� Seismic Seismic

�� RadonRadon

�� FloodsFloods

�� TsunamiTsunami

• Hazardous substances

• Radiation

• Coastal erosion

• Subsidence

• Forest fires

Yesterday, Today and TomorrowYesterday, Today and Tomorrow1990 1990 –– 2010 2010 -- 20302030

Resource baseResource base

Air qualityAir quality

�� Nox and Sox per person and Nox and Sox per person and per unit GDPper unit GDP

�� Particles PM 10Particles PM 10

Climate changeClimate change

�� Greenhouse gas emissionsGreenhouse gas emissions

WaterWater

�� Groundwater salinityGroundwater salinity

Spatial land useSpatial land use

Biological diversityBiological diversity

Driving forcesDriving forcesEconomicEconomic

�� GDP ppGDP pp

�� Food expenditure per docileFood expenditure per docile

EnergyEnergy

�� Energy consumption pp and Energy consumption pp and per unit GDPper unit GDP

TransportTransport

�� Car ownershipCar ownership

�� Kms travelled ppKms travelled pp

Household consumptionHousehold consumption

�� Domestic water consumption Domestic water consumption pppp

�� Domestic waste ppDomestic waste pp

Rise in GDP pp 1995-2008 ($ current value weighted PPP)

מגמות בהכנסה פנויה לפי עשירונים (משקי בית)

2,2

35

2,5

13

3,2

56

3,6

80

4,4

81

5,5

43

7,4

61

2,7

55

3,6

86

4,3

92

5,4

81

6,5

20

7,8

12 9,2

54

11

,46

1

3,5

21

4,5

37 5,9

09 7,2

65 9

,06

8

10

,18

9 12

,43

1

15

,79

0

1,8

01

1,4

86

86

4

17

,64

1

1,5

90

24

,51

5

1,6

83

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

עשירון

ח"ש

1992-93

2000

2008

Trends in income available after expenditure on food according to decentile (household)

92%89% 89% 88% 88% 88%

89% 89%

87% 87%85% 85% 85% 85% 84%

82%

77%75%

8%11% 11% 12% 12% 12%

11% 11%

13% 13%15% 15% 15% 15% 16%

18% 18% 19%

6% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

התפלגות המים המופקים בישראל לפי מקורות

מים שפירים

מי קולחין

מי התפלה

Trends in water supply by type and quantity

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ת שנמי נושי

1995

(%)

ג "שינויים בצריכת מים ביתית ליחידת תמ

ג"תמ

ג"צריכה ביתית לתמ

ג"צריכה בתעשיה לתמ

ג"צריכה חקלאית לתמ

Trends in domestic water consumption in relation to GDP

צריכת מים עירונית לנפש בחלוקה לאשכולות חברתיים כלכליים

אשכול 1

אשכול 5

אשכול 10

ממוצע

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

שפלנק "מ

Urban water consumption pp according to socio-economic level of LA

כמות הפסולת לנפש לפי אשכולות חברתיים כלכליים

אשכול 1

אשכול 5

אשכול 10

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

םיולש פלנג "ק

Waste pp according to the socio economic level of the LA

תחזית לשנת 2030 במגמת "עסקים כרגיל"

4.50

אספקה ראשונית לנפש 3.08

צריכה סופית לנפש

0.114

אספקה ראשונית ליחידת תמ"ג

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

שפלנן "טעש

0

0.025

0.05

0.075

0.1

0.125

0.15

איקרימאר לדו 1

00

0ל-ן "טעש

Extrapolation of energy trends BAU scenario

ScenariosScenarios

UK Environment AgencyUK Environment Agency

Scenarios are tools for thinking about the future based on four Scenarios are tools for thinking about the future based on four assumptions: assumptions:

�� The future is unlike the past, and is shaped by human choice andThe future is unlike the past, and is shaped by human choice and action action

�� The future cannot be foreseen, but exploring the future can infoThe future cannot be foreseen, but exploring the future can inform present rm present

decisions decisions

�� There are many possible futures, scenarios map a There are many possible futures, scenarios map a ‘‘possibility spacepossibility space’’

�� Scenario development involves rational analysis and subjective jScenario development involves rational analysis and subjective judgment.udgment.’’

The use of exploratory scenarios approaches should be consideredThe use of exploratory scenarios approaches should be considered when: when:

�� The future is uncertain The future is uncertain

�� The ability to adapt to future change is restrained or if adjustThe ability to adapt to future change is restrained or if adjustments carry ments carry

the risk of negative effects over the longer term (e.g. technolothe risk of negative effects over the longer term (e.g. technological gical ‘‘locklock--inin’’). ).

�� There are opportunities for positive gains from pursuing There are opportunities for positive gains from pursuing ‘‘robust strategiesrobust strategies’’

Global ScenariosGlobal ScenariosTellus InstituteTellus Institute

Conventional WorldsConventional Worlds

�� Market Forces Market Forces –– risks risks

of marketof market--centered centered

developmentdevelopment

�� Policy Reform Policy Reform ––

redirecting growth by redirecting growth by

governmentgovernment

Alternative VisionsAlternative Visions

�� Fortress World Fortress World –– an an

authoritarian pathauthoritarian path

�� Great Transitions Great Transitions –– a a

sustainable sustainable

civilizationcivilization

Scenario 1markets

first

Scenario 2 security

first

Scenario 4Technolog

y first

Scenario 3 governance

first

Ecological disaster

Political stability in

ME

Cooperative sovereignty

Technological breakthrough

Globalization of trade

External driving forces

Scenario building

Baseline scenario

BAU

Realistic vision (floor and ceiling)

Effective and efficient intervention

Instruments for

intervention

Analysis of scenarios to

identify where

similar and where

different

Intervention points and instruments

goals options evaluation

Policy packagesPolicy packages

�� Combination of coherent policy Combination of coherent policy

instruments for reaching the same goalinstruments for reaching the same goal

�� Cancellation of opposing instrumentsCancellation of opposing instruments

�� Promotion of supporting instrumentsPromotion of supporting instruments

�� Cancellation of ineffective instrumentsCancellation of ineffective instruments

�� Promotion of acceptable instruments to Promotion of acceptable instruments to

politicians, interest groups and publicpoliticians, interest groups and public

�� Reduction of transaction costsReduction of transaction costs