Sustainability and risk management of Pacific salmon under ... · earthquake and tsunami in coastal ecosystems around Japan Masahide Kaeriyama, Yuxue Qin, Yosuke Koshino, and Hideaki

Sustainability and risk management of Pacific

salmon under the changing climate and catastrophic

earthquake and tsunami in coastal ecosystems

around Japan

Masahide Kaeriyama, Yuxue Qin,

Yosuke Koshino, and Hideaki Kudo

Faculty and Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences

Hokkaido University

[email protected]

Topics

Climate change and production trend of

Pacific salmon

Human impacts for Pacific salmon:

- Hatchery salmon

- Global warming

Conclusion

Climate change and production

trend of Pacific salmon

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Mil

lio

n f

ish

Year

Annual change in catches of Pacific salmon in the North Pacific Ocean

1920-2009

PINK

CHUM

SOCKEYE

CHINOOK

COHO

1924/25 1947/48 1976/77

1998/99

Production trend of Pacific salmon Synchronizing with the climate regime shift

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995

K

ALPI

R2=0.868,

(F=462, P<0.001, n=72)

K (

mill

ion

fis

h)

AL

PI

Year class

Temporal changes in ALPI and carrying capacity (K) of three species (sockeye, chum, and pink salmon)

Salmon carrying capacity significantly synchronized with the long-term climate change

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995

Pink Chum Sockeye

Carrying capacity trend Pink: stable?

Chum: stable?

Sockeye: decrease

Ca = -0.0706t + 8.31 (R² = 0.2525*)

Ja = -0.0065t + 11.074 (R2=0.039)

Ru = 0.0311t + 9.0027 (R² = 0.1689)

Us = 0.0033t + 9.7931 (R² = 0.0097)

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1990 1995 2000 2005

Canada

Japan

Russia

USA

Chum

Ca = -0.0694t + 9.1775 (R² = 0.1161)

Ja = -0.0376t + 9.8486 (R² = 0.2629*)

Ru = 0.0352t + 11.307 (R² = 0.2278*)

Us= -0.0027t + 11.609 (R² = 0.003)

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1990 1995 2000 2005

Canada

Japan

Russia

USA

Pink

Annual change in

catch of chum and

pink salmon in the

North Pacific in

1990-2010 (by NPAFC Database)

Pink salmon

Canada Decrease

Japan Decrease

Russia Increase

USA Stable?

Chum salmon

Canada Decrease

Japan Decrease?

Russia Increase

USA Stable?

Ln

(C

atc

h , 1

06 )

Year

Southern populations: Decrease

Russian populations: Increase

Human impacts for Pacific

salmon: Hatchery salmon

Hatchery salmon Pink <20% Chum < 60% Sockeye <10% Annual changes in abundance of wild/hatchery salmon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Pink

Chum

Sockeye

% Hatchery/Biomass

Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Wild

Hatchery

Chum

0

200

400

600

800

1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Pink

Abun

da

nce (m

illio

n fis

h)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Sockeye

Wild

Hatchery Wild

Year

Wild

Hatchery Salmon Effects

RCC=(CC-B)/CC×100

RCC: Residual Carrying Capacity CC: Carrying Capacity B: Biomass FL: Fork length (mm) AGE: Mean age at maturity

RCC (%)

Carrying capacity and density-dependent effect of chum salmon

Hokkaido chum salmon

640

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

FL (

mm

)

RCC (%)

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Age

RCC (%)

r=0.979 (F=753.8, P<0.001)

r=0.879 (F=109.1, P<0.001)

This result suggests that

carrying capacity of chum

salmon is closely related not

only with the long-term climate

change, but also the

density-dependent effect,

the density-dependent growth

will also affect breeding

characters (e.g., body size and

fecundity) of the wild salmon

CHI TOK NIS YPO YPN YPD

CHI 0.000

TOK 0.000 0.000

NIS 0.013 0.034 0.000

YPO 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.000

YPN 0.039 0.027 0.145* 0.013 0.000

YPD 0.211** 0.160** 0.486** 0.168** 0.059** 0.000

Pairwise population Fst estimated between chum salmon populations

*P<0.05 **P<0.01

Genetic differentiation of Yurappu River chum salmon Variable nucleotide sites in the 481 bp 5’ portion of mtDNA control region

Yurappu River

Oct. (YPO)

Nov. (YPN)

Dec. (YPD)

Chitose R.

(CHI)

Tokachi R.

(TOK)

Nishibetsu R.

(NIS)

CHI

TOK

NIS

YP

Mixed population Endemic population

Endemic Transplanted

Esca

pe

ment

Spawning time Early Late

Genetic

Disturbance

Yurappu River chum salmon remains a native stock in the late-

run, but is intermingled with populations introduced from other

rivers by the artificial hatchery program.

Genetic Influence of Hatchery Salmon

Fig. 2. Haplotype

distribution of chum

salmon populations in the

Tedori and Gakko rivers.

Haplotype

Hp-1

Hp-2

Hp-3

Hp-4

Hp-5

Fig.3. Haplotype distribution of chum salmon

populations in Japan/ (modified from Sato et

al. 2001)

Genetic Influence of Hatchery Salmon (2) Tedori R.

100

55.

6 99.6

69.1

95.9

55.

7

Unrooted tree based on

genetic distance between

haplotypes.

•Tedori River received a massive seed-

transplantation of chum salmon from the Chitose

Salmon Hatchery during 1980s and 1990s.

•Tedori River chum salmon were closely related with

Chitose and Tokachi River populations, and did not

show the genetic differentiation with Tokoro River

population, despite no-seed- transplantation from

this river in Hokkaido.

•This result shows that a part of Tedori River chum

salmon receive gene flow and disturbance following

the seed transplantation from not only Chitose

River, but also other rive populations in Hokkaido.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 Native Non …

A

Tota

l num

ber

of

juvenile

chum

salm

on (

mill

ions)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 Western Pacific Eastern Pacific Nemuro Okhotsk

B

Tota

l num

ber

of

juvenile

A. Total number of both native and non-native juvenile chum

salmon released into the Chitose River. B. Total number of

juveniles transplanted from each region and released into the

Chitose River.

Chitose Salmon Hatchery

• Chitose Salmon Hatchery (CSH) play a

role of a center of salmon hatchery

program and main base of salmon seed

transplantation in Japan.

• Chitose River chum salmon population

extremely decreased and could not

reproduce by 1960s because of the

overfishing.

• The CSH released a lot of juvenile

transported from almost all populations

around Hokkaido during 1960s and

1980s.

• So, the massive seed transplantation

from the CSH caused that almost all

early-run populations were genetically

disturbed in Japan since the 1980s.

Genetic-disturbance for Japanese chum salmon

Human impacts for Pacific

salmon: Global warming

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Mean SST isothermal diagrams around Japan in September

2010: S 2009: W 1989: W 1990: W 1991: S 1992: W 1993: W 1994: S 1995: W 1996: S 1997: W 1998: W 1999: S 2000: S

2001: W 2002: W 2003: W 2004: W 2005: S 2006: S 2007: S 2008: S 2009: W 2010: S 2011: S 2012: S

Tsushima Warm Current

S: Strong, W: Weak

Weak: 2,407±1,028 thousands (N=14) Strong: 1,478±785 thousands (N=10)

(ANOVA: F=4.314, P<0.05)

Run

siz

e b

y S

ep. (t

housands)

Year

Annual change in the run size of early-population chum salmon returning to the Japan Sea coast in Hokkaido.

Esca

pe

ment

0 5

10 15 20

8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1

1986-90 (mean 2,402 thousand fish)

0 5

10 15 20

8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1

0 5

10 15 20

8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1

0 5

10 15 20

8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1

0 5

10 15 20

8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1

0 5

10 15 20

8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1

0 5

10 15 20

8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1

0 5

10 15 20

8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1

1976-80 (mean 976 thousand fish)

1970-75 (mean 873 thousand fish)

1981-85 (mean 1,885 thousand fish)

1991-95 (mean 2,943 thousand fish)

1996-2000 (mean 2,843 thousand fish)

2001-2005 (mean 3,343 thousand fish)

2006-2010 (mean 2,995 thousand fish)

Return season

Long-term change in escapement

pattern of Hokkaido chum salmon

•1970-80s: Bimodality (Early & Late runs)

•1990s-ealy 2000s: Late run disappeared by

hatchery selection for salmon fisheries industry

•Since 2006: Faint sigh on decline in early run and

increase in late run in order to the global warming

•Early run: Mixed (& artificial disturbed) population

•Late run: Wild population

Wild population:

Important Genetic Resources

Trophic level: Wild>Hatchery salmon in the Yurappu River

Please see a poster of FIS-P-4.

Prediction about the Global Warming effect on chum salmon in the North Pacific Ocean based on the SRES-A1B scenario

(Kaeriyama 2012)

Global Warming Effect on Chum Salmon in the North Pacific

● At present, the global warming is affecting:

- Positively & directly for increases in growth at age-1 and survival of Hokkaido chum salmon through the SST (sea surface temperature) during summer and autumn in the Okhotsk Sea since the late 1980s

- Negatively for the spawning migration of early-run populations returning to Japan since the late 1990s

● In the Future, the global warming will affect:

- Decrease in their carrying capacity for reducing distribution area in the Bering Sea

- Moving to the northern area (e.g., the Chukchi Sea)

- Strong density-dependent effect will occur

- Wintering area change from the Gulf of Alaska to the Northwestern Subarctic Gyre

- Hokkaido chum salmon population will lose migration route to the Okhotsk Sea by 2050 and will be crushed by 2100

Conclusion

Conceptual Diagram on the Sustainable Adaptive-Management of Pacific Salmon in Japan

Feedback control

Monitoring - Climate change - Biological information

(body size, age composition, breeding & genetic characters

- Condition of river ecosystem, etc.

Action plan (& Modeling) - Conservation: Natural

freshwater ecosystems - Protection: wild salmon - Sustainable hatchery

program

Will we be able to use the ocean organisms as seafood in the future?

What do we need for seafood security and marine ecosystem sustainability in present and future?

Education

- Paradigm shift from the traditional fisheries science to the new ecological fisheries science in the advanced education

- Dietary education for kids食育

e.g. “local production for local consumption” 地産地消

How do we establish the sustainable fisheries and aquaculture management based on the ecosystem approach?

Risk Management: Adaptive management & Precautionary principle

1) Adaptive learning: Learning by doing, Responsibility of risk exposition

2) Feedback control: Monitoring, Modeling

- Fisheries: Long-term climate change (e.g., Global warming, Regime shift), Carrying capacity

- Aquaculture: Food security, Conservation of marine ecosystem, Water pollution

Sustainability for ocean ecosystem conservation and seafood security

We should recognize to live in the earth ex dono ecosystem service, and know natural threats

Carrying capacity in the marine ecosystem “More than enough is too much”

Fisheries Industry : Economic efficiency→Ecosystem Approach