Sustainability and Environment in an Ageing New Zealand › wp-content › ...an Ageing New Zealand Keeping Pace with Two National Science Challenges Kay Saville-Smith (CRESA) Presentation

SustainabilityandEnvironmentinanAgeingNewZealand

KeepingPacewithTwoNationalScienceChallenges

KaySaville-Smith(CRESA)PresentationforMinistryfortheEnvironment

28February2018

BuildingBetterHomes,TownsandCities

Kaora kainga rua:Builtenvironments

thatbuildcommunities

AgeingWell

Topushbackdisabilitythresholds

sothatallNewZealandersreachtheirfullpotentialthrough

thelifecourse,particularlyinthelatteryearsoflife.

OurCities:• Twodefiningcharacteristics:

• Environmentallyunsustainable• Demographicallydysfunctional

• Ill-adaptedtomeetingchallengespresentedbyNewZealand’sbigtrends:• Structuralageing• NZ’stenurerevolution• Unaffordablebuiltenvironments

CitiesEnvironmentalThreat• Degradationanddepletionof:

• Soils• Fragileecologicalsystems– wetlands,coastlands,riparian

verges• Water• Airquality

• Carbonhungry• Thirstforexpansionratherthanretrofit

• Shiftingurbanismunlikeshiftingcultivationisnotaboutrenewal– weaverttheeyefromdilapidationanddecline

OldandYounginOurRegions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

OldAgeDependencyRatio2013Census

StructuralAgeing

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

PopulationsAged65+Years2013Census

DemographicallyDysfunctional• ‘CarisKing’TownsandCities:

• Excludes- Olderpeople– by2051ifcurrentratesoflicensingprevailover300,000olderpeoplewillbeunlicensed– Childrenandyoungpeople

• Has:• Underminedpublictransportnetworks• Attenuatedconnectivity,increasedtraveltimesandcostlyinfrastructure• Imposedburdensoftransportcostonthemostvulnerablehouseholds• Exposedoldandyoungstreetuserstorisk

• Thedrivingaddictionandourenvironments:• Overprovisionofparkingandgaragingallocationrequirementsindistrictplans• Underprovisionandmaintenanceoffootpaths• Bigcarbon• Stormwatermanagementproblems

PedestrianDeathsandInjuries

DemographicallyDysfunctional• Citiescontainmostofourhousingstock

• Stocksaremarkedby:• Littlediversity• Increasingsizeandmisalignmentwithhouseholdsizeandneeds• Under-maintenance• Lackoffunctionality

• Newbuildsandrenovations:• Builtunderapartialandinadequatecodewithaccessibilityandfunctionality

• Struggletomeetcode• Oftensitedinenvironmentallyfragileandriskyspaces• Systemicproblems(leakybuilding)leadstoinsecurityanddependence• Over-productionforwealthierorhigherincomehouseholds

DrM

ichaelReh

m,U

niversityof

Auckland

and

KSaville-Sm

ith,CRE

SA

UnaffordableBuiltEnvironments• Citieshavebecomethe:

• Sitesofunaffordablehousing• Driversofhousepricerisesassociatedwith:• Ratestress• De-couplingofconditionandamenityfromprice• Industryandhouseholdaddictiontowindfallgain

• Reflectedinchangesintenure,concentrationsofownership,andland-hoarding

• Risinghousepricesfeedintergenerationalconflict–OlderPeopleareonthePig’sBackThesis

Over-productionforWealthy• Retirementvillages

• Auckland– 44%ofNZ’sRVdevelopmentpipeline• Around7,000unitsinthedevelopmentpipeline• Probableover-supplyshort/mediumterms

• Forecastdemandforlastyear– 351units• IndustrysupplyyearendingNov2016– 545units

• Boomtailingoff– 21%dropSummersetnewandresales• Enteringresidentialcaretosustainsaleandpurchases

• Decliningproductionofentryleveldwellings:• Newbuildvalueprofile:

• 1960smorethan35%ofnew-buildinlowerquartile.• 20038%newbuildslowestquartilewith>40%inupperquartiles

• Declininginvestmentinaffordablerentalstock• NeglectofADUsandPartitionDwellings

HousePrices– AucklandandOtherMarketsLargeCitiesRuralAreas SmallCities

ProfessorLarryM

urph

yandDrM

ichaelReh

m,

UniversityofA

uckland

42.836.5

51.755.9

82.8

59.9

87.3

66.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Years

percentage

HomeOwnershipbyBirthCohort,TotalNZ

2007-13 2001-06 1997-01 1992-96 1987-91 1982-86 1977-81 1972-76 1967-71 1962-66 1957-61 1952-56 1947-51 1942-46 1937-41 1932-36 1927-31 1922-26 1917-21 1912-16

CohortBorn:

Leaveparentalhome

Mainfamilyformationyears

ProfessorNatalieJackson,CohortAnalysis

Pig’sback?CapitalGaininRepeat

HouseSales

ProfessorLarryMurphyandDrMichaelRehm,Universityof

Auckland

SomeMfE HeadsUp• Houseprice,AffordableHousing,HousingAffordability

• Planningdoesnotdriveuplandprices– themaindriversare• Highhouseprices• Creditflushes• Residuallandvaluetoolswhensupportingbullishdevelopmentassessments• Rationinglandreleaseandland-banking• Exclusionaryandrestrictivecovenants• Fear,anxietyandgreed

• Butwindfallgainsareassociatedwithplanningchanges– includingaroundSHAs

• LifeMark andGreenbuildsdonotdrivehouseprices– butgreenanduniversaldesignisusedtorationalizenew-buildhousepricepremiums

• Compactandconnectedtownsandcitiesarekey• Butpressureonfragile,riskysites– netbenefit(cost)analysisneeded• ADUsandpartitioncanbeawin-win

• Planningrulesareirrationalandantitheticaltoaneffects-basedparadigm• Require,likepapakāinga,arethinkrecognizingintensificationvalue• Nationalpolicystatement