Susanne Rasmussen 2013 masccc

Climate  Change  Vulnerability  Assessment  and  

Preparedness  Planning    in  Cambridge,  MA  

 by  

Susanne  Rasmussen  Director  of  Environmental  &Transporta9on  Planning  

City  of  Cambridge    at  

Massachuse@s  Sustainable  Communi9es  Conference  Worcester,  MA  April  24,  2013  

§ Popula9on:    105,162  (2010)  § Area:    6.26  square  miles  §  Employment:  111,447  (2008)  § Mixed-­‐use,  high-­‐density  

About  Cambridge,  MA  

§  Significant  buildings  and  infrastructure  near  Charles  River  and  Alewife  Brook  

§ Neighborhoods  on  filled  land  

How  Cambridge  Got  Started  

1990  Recycling  Ordinance,  curbside  recycling  begins;  Environment  Program  established  

1992  Vehicle  Trip  Reduc9on  Ordinance  directs  city  toward  emphasis  on  non-­‐automobile  transport  

1995  Parking  &  Transporta9on  Demand  Management  Ordinance  

1999  Cambridge  joins  ICLEI-­‐Local  Governments  for  Sustainability  &  conducts  GHG  emissions  inventory  

§ Climate  Ac9on  Plan  adopted  by  City  Council  late  2002  

§ Focus  on  mi9ga9on  

§ Climate  Protec9on  Advisory  Commi@ee  ,  represen9ng  residents,  business  and  universi9es,  recommends  adding  adap9on  focus  in  2010  

Mi=ga=on  vs  Adap=on?  

Key  Recommenda=ons  •  Some  degree  of  climate  change  is  unavoidable  •  Cambridge  is  vulnerable  to  sea  level  rise  and  storm  surge  flooding  

•  Climate  change  can  cause  a  wide  range  of  public  health  impacts  

•  Impacts  to  water  supply,  food  supply,  energy  system  reliability,  surface  water  quality,  and  transporta9on  are  expected  

•  Physical  impacts  can  lead  to  social  and  economic  impacts  

•  It  is  important  to  start  planning  now  

Temperature  

Precipita9on  Sea  level  rise  

Extreme  weather  

Vulnerability:  Key  Concerns  

Es9mated  flooding  on  Oct.  29th  

If  surge  had  hit  at  high  9de  Oct  29th  

Surge  at  high  9de  +  2.5  e  SLR    

Star=ng  the  Process  

•  Funding  included  in  FY13  budget  for  vulnerability  assessment  and  adapta9on  plan  

• RFP  process  to  find  consultant  team  with  exper9se  in  climate  change  modeling  and  impact  analysis  

• Kleinfelder,  Cambridge-­‐based  engineering  firm  with  addi9onal  experts  in  scenario  development,  risk  modeling,  public  health,  economic  impacts  and  stakeholder  engagement  

1.   Vulnerability  Assessment  (2012-­‐2013)  •  Provide  technical  and  scien9fic  informa9on  for  assessing  risk  and  vulnerability  

•  Iden9fy  priority  planning  areas  •  Establish  stakeholder  engagement  processes    

2.   Preparedness  Planning  (2014-­‐2015)  •  Iden9fy  measures  to  prepare  for  changes  likely  to  occur  from  climate  change  

•  Adopt  implementa9on  measures      

Two  stage  process  

Vulnerability  Assessment  Process  

1.  Climate  Scenarios  2.  Impact  analyses  •  Infrastructure  and  buildings  •  Public  health  •  Economic  •  Urban  forest  

3.  Vulnerability  analysis  4.  Risk  assessment  5.  Priority  preparedness  planning  areas  

Vulnerability  Ranking  

Sensi=vity  •  Sensi9vity  =  Degree  to  which  a  built,  natural,  or  human  system  is  directly  or  indirectly  affected  by  changes  in  climate  condi9ons  or  specific  climate  change  impacts.    

•  Example:    A  building  without    air  condi9oning  and  housing    elderly  residents  is  highly    sensi9ve  to  increased    temperatures.  

Adap=ve  Capacity  

•  Adap9ve  Capacity  =  The  degree  of  built,  natural,  or  human  systems  to  accommodate  changes  in  climate  with  minimal  poten9al  damage  or  cost,  or  to  take  advantage  of  opportuni9es  presented  by  climate  change.  

•  Example:    Electrical  systems  fi@ed  with  equipment  that  is  salt  resistance  have  higher  adap9ve  capacity  in  terms  of  responding  to  flooding  from  the  ocean.  

   6  members,  climate  experts  from  Harvard,  MIT  and  BU  •  Small,  highly  technical  mee9ngs  •  Key  responsibili9es  •  Review  technical  approach  by  project  team  and  give  guidance/input  on  scenario  development,  modeling  

•  Lend  credibility  to  study,  basis  for  preparedness  plan  •  LOTS  of  feedback  already  on:  •  Uncertainty  of  climate  models  and  the  challenges  in  downscaling  an9cipated  impacts  

•  Value  of  building  on  lessons  from  elsewhere,  for  example  Hurricane  Sandy,  and  use  of  “war  gaming”  

Expert  Advisory  Panel  

•  16  members  represen9ng  key  stakeholder  groups  (agencies,  ins9tu9ons,  businesses,  residents,  etc.)  

•  These  mee9ngs  will  be  somewhat  technical  •  Key  responsibili9es  •  To  learn  about  the  project    •  To  share  informa9on  with  technical  team  •  To  act  as  liaisons  to  their  organiza9ons  and  agencies  

•  Also  engaging  with  the  City  of  Boston,  e.g.  Boston  Water  and  Sewer  Commission’s    25-­‐year  asset  management  plan  

Technical  Advisory  CommiRee  

•  3  Public  Workshops  (evenings  or  weekends)  •  Intent  is  to  get  50-­‐100  people  to  a@end,  seeking  wide  par9cipa9on  through  many  outreach  strategies  

•  Designed  so  people  can  talk  to  each  other  •  Key  expecta9ons:  •  Provide  input,  local  knowledge  •  Share  perspec9ves  on  early  work  •  Act  as  liaisons  into  the  community  about  the  project  

•  Hurricane  Sandy  greatly  increased  the  public’s  interest  in  preparedness  planning  

Public  Workshops  

•  A@ending  mee9ngs  of  neighborhood,  business  and  interest  groups  

•  Project  website,  listserv  •  Focus  groups  as  needed  •  Surveys  •  CHALLENGES:  •  High  degree  of  uncertainty  •  Poten9al  impact  are  scary  •  But,  not  happening  right  now  •  Need  to  learn  how  to  engage  public  as  we  go  along  

Other  Engagement  Strategies  

Q  &  A  

•  For  more  informa9on:    h@p://www.cambridgema.gov/CDD/Projects/Climate/climatechangeresilianceandadapta9on.aspx  

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