KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON: STRATEGIES FOR COMPATIBILITY AND INTEROPERABILITY IN ELECTRIC POWER NETWORKS SURVIVABILITY OF COMPLEX NETWORKS October 27, 2011 1 Ira Kohlberg Kohlberg Associates, Inc. 11308South Shore Road Reston, VA 20190 File copy provided by http://www.wll.co
File copy provided by http://www.wll.com. KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON: STRATEGIES FOR COMPATIBILITY AND INTEROPERABILITY IN ELECTRIC POWER NETWORKS. SURVIVABILITY OF COMPLEX NETWORKS. Ira Kohlberg Kohlberg Associates, Inc. South Shore Road Reston, VA 20190. October 27, 2011. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON: STRATEGIES FOR COMPATIBILITY AND INTEROPERABILITY IN
ELECTRIC POWER NETWORKS
SURVIVABILITY OF COMPLEX NETWORKS
October 27, 2011
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Ira KohlbergKohlberg Associates, Inc.11308South Shore Road
E1 footprint for a 30kT detonation at 100km altitude east of Chicago (unclassified version)
• The US power grid iscomprised of three interconnected systems, the eastern interconnect, the western, and Texas
• A relatively modest yield burst over the eastern US can affect 70% of the total national power generation
A single relatively small weapon can have a radius of impact of nearly 1,000 miles, affecting nearly 70% of the population and industrial production of the USA and Canada, the financial centers and
seat of governments.
Vulnerability of Power Grid Components to E1File copy provided by http://www.wll.com
MODELING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN POWER AND TELECOMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURES FOR A HEMP ATTACK
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Electromagnetic terrorism and potential infrastructure failures has become an extremely serious matter that may be viewed as embracing three major issues:
•Terrorist targets of interest•Effect on civilian and military populations•National response
The following set of vu-graphs show the breakdown of a large network (power and or telecommunications) caused by a HEMP attack.
For illustrative purposes we show this as an evolutionary process although it could happen relatively rapidly.
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To other nodes
Link
Node
AA
BC
E
D
(a) No attack17
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To other nodes
Link
Node
AA
B
E
D
(b) Attack node C
Cluster
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To other nodes
Link
Node
AA
B
E
D
(c) Attack node C and link between nodes D and E
Cluster
Cluster
Cluster
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The following set of vu-graphs show the recovery/ breakdown of Probability-of-Call Blocking and electric power from of a theoretical model of combined power and telecommunication networks.
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POWER AND TELECOMMUNICATION INTERDEPENDENCY
POWERCONTROL
POWER TRANSMISSION
POWER DISTRIBUTION
SCADA
PTNPTNPDN
PDN
PDNPDN
ELECTRICALPOWER
GENERATION
Telecommunications Line
Power Line
FUEL SOURCE
PDN
PDN
PDN
Telecommunications Line
a b
c
d
e
f
a
b
c g
e
fd
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10-2 10-1 1 10 100 1000
protective system
response time after the onset of an event in seconds
FACTS
exciters and PSS
underfrequency load shredding
governor control
AGC
ULTC voltage control
operator –initiated/ manual control
market price update
1 cycle
Data Source: Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS)
Grid of the Future White Paper on Real Time Security Monitoring and Control of Powers Systems
Electric Power Response Time After the Onset of an Event
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File copy provided by http://www.wll.com
CONCLUSION
•Modeling the response of large networks that are heavily dependent on electromagnetic effects is still in the formative stage.
•Theoretical models can provide much insight into key factors that influence resilience to terrorist attacks
•Ultimately, detailed models supported by experimental data that predict component and subsystem behavior will be required.