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Voicing Concern Surveying People’s Priorities in Violent
Settings
IntroductionAt the initiative of United Nations
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the World Humanitarian Summit (WHS)
will take place in May 2016 in Istanbul, Turkey. A central
objective of the pro-cess is to ‘redefine how the global community
delivers for the world’s most vulnerable people’ living in areas
impacted by armed conflict and disas-ters (WHS, 2015, p. 1).
With a view to giving affected people a greater voice in these
discus-sions, the WHS secretariat contracted
the Small Arms Survey to carry out a review of population-based
surveys on the needs of people in areas affected by armed conflict
(UNDP, 2015). While few surveys have been undertaken in insecure
environments to inquire spe-cifically about people’s perceptions of
their priorities, needs, or concerns, several institutions with
various man-dates and objectives have carried out relevant
studies.
This Issue Brief analyses people’s perceived priorities and
needs in situ-ations of armed conflict or high levels
of insecurity. It is based on 43 recently completed
population-based surveys, during which respondents were asked to
either identify or rank the general issues about which they felt
most con-cerned. Although not fully representa-tive of all recent
conflicts and insecure environments, the data spans three regions:
Africa (8 countries), Asia (2 countries), and Latin America and the
Caribbean (16 countries). While the focus of the analysis is on
countries affected by armed conflict in the tradi-tional sense, it
also includes a number of countries—primarily from the latter
region—that are experiencing high rates of other types of violence
(such as homi-cides) for comparative purposes.
The study aims to contribute to a better understanding of
priorities in situations of armed conflict or high-level insecurity
by focusing on the perceptions of the local populations themselves.
Specifically, it addresses the following questions:
What types of primary concerns do people who live in violent
set-tings most commonly identify?
To what extent do people’s priori-ties vary across settings and
popu-lation groups?
To what extent do the concerns identified by respondents overlap
with issues that are of relevance to the humanitarian
community?
The study is divided in three parts. The first section provides
informa-tion on the methodology and caveats regarding the surveys
under review. The second section reviews general trends based on
the analysis of the
Number 15 December 2015
Issue Brief
A woman shields her children from seeing a victim of a shooting
in the street, Guatemala City, Guatemala, February 2012. Source:
Rodrigo Abd/AP Photo
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Small Arms Survey Issue Brief Number 15 December 20152
top three priorities identified by the sur-vey respondents. It
also examines the extent to which actual security condi-tions on
the ground affect public per-ceptions of needs. The third section
explores differences in perceptions among population groups,
disaggre-gating results based on the sex of the respondent as well
as whether the interview took place in an urban or rural area. The
following are the report’s main findings:
Security issues stand out as respond-ents’ most pressing concern
in areas experiencing ongoing conflict or particularly high rates
of violence. The other most frequently cited problems in these
settings included unemployment, the economy, and corruption.
When prospects for security improve, priorities shift. In
several African countries that are emerging from conflict, for
instance, respondents prioritized issues of relevance to the
humanitarian community, including the provision of food, health,
and education.
Men were generally more prone to prioritize security than women.
Compared to men, female respond-ents were more concerned about
food, water, and health. This dis-crepancy suggests that roles,
expec-tations, and impacts differ based on sex in insecure
settings.
Overall, perceptions of priorities differ significantly between
urban and rural respondents. Food and healthcare appear to matter
more in rural settings, while security con-cerns seem stronger in
urban areas.
MethodologySurveys involve the use of a question-naire to
measure the experiences, behaviour, attitudes, and perceptions of a
target population. Through the use of appropriate statistical
procedures, surveys can be based on samples of individuals or
households that are representative of an area’s general population.
This, in turn, makes it possible to generate conclusions about that
area’s entire population. In this sense, surveys constitute a key
tool for
gathering representative statistics and identifying
policy-relevant trends, espe-cially in areas where other sources of
data may be scarce or unreliable, as is often the case in countries
that are experiencing conflict. Moreover, data can be collected
relatively quickly and cost-effectively, since, unlike censuses,
surveys require only a fraction of the population to be
interviewed. This section describes how surveys were selected as a
basis for this report and reviews the key caveats associated with
this type of analysis.
Survey selectionThe selected surveys have in common that they
were carried out in contexts that were affected by conflict,
emerging from conflict, or experiencing high levels of armed
violence. Given the definitional grey areas that characterize these
types of violence, the Issue Brief only retained surveys that were
under-taken in countries that experienced an annual rate of violent
deaths exceeding 10 per 100,000 population at least once between
2004 and 2012.1 The ratio of 10 per 100,000 violent deaths per year
is a meaningful threshold as only 37 countries are known to have
had higher rates in 2012, while the world average for the period
2007–12 was 7.4 per 100,000 (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2015,
pp. 56–58). This Issue Brief there-fore examines surveys undertaken
in countries associated with ‘traditional’ conflicts, as well as in
states that are suffering from comparable if not supe-rior rates of
other lethal violence, such as extremely high homicide rates,
notably in Latin America and the Caribbean.
While these surveys have varying scopes and objectives, they all
asked respondents to identify or rank the main needs, priorities,
or concerns affecting them or their country; in that sense, they
access an untapped source of data for the humanitarian community.
The authors established key quality control criteria for inclusion
in this study: surveys were selected only if they were administered
by reputable organizations and if the methodology and results were
published or available. In some cases, the detailed ‘microdata’ and
survey database were also acces-
sible. The survey samples are represent-ative of the general
adult population of the country or subnational unit under
consideration. Importantly, all surveys adhere to sound
methodologi-cal standards, including well-defined sampling
strategies, weighting proce-dures, and statistical
reliability.2
Initially, a literature review identi-fied more than 60
relevant, publicly available surveys that had been under-taken by
reputable organizations for potential inclusion in the study. After
careful consideration of the criteria listed above, 43 were
retained for the analysis. Table 1 presents the key characteristics
of the selected surveys, including geographical scope, sample size,
and implementing institution.
The surveys were undertaken by different organizations, each
with their particular focus and objectives, as described below:
The Afrobarometer has been under taking periodic surveys since
1999 in a total of 37 African countries (Afrobarometer, n.d.). The
questionnaires are designed to assess respondents’ attitudes
towards democracy, governance, and markets, among other topics. The
survey module on government performance includes the following
question: ‘In your opinion, what are the most important problems
facing this country that government should address?’
The AmericasBarometer has been conducting regular surveys of
democratic values and behaviour in multiple countries in the
Americas since 2004. The latest round of sur-veys was implemented
in 28 coun-tries across the Americas (LAPOP, n.d.). In 2012 the
surveys asked, ‘In your opinion, what is the most seri-ous problem
faced by the country?’
The Asia Foundation carried out annual surveys in Afghanistan
between 2006 and 2014 (Asia Foun-dation, 2014). These cover a wide
range of issues, including security, economic growth and
employ-ment, development and service delivery, governance and
political participation, the environment, and women’s empowerment.
The
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Table 1 Reviewed surveys, by source, geographic coverage, and
year of implementation
Survey implementer Number of surveys Coverage Country/area
Sample size Year
Afrobarometer 5 National Burundi 1,200 2012
Côte d’Ivoire 1,200 2013
Mali 1,200 2013
Sudan 1,199 2013
Uganda 2,400 2012
AmericasBarometer 16 National Belize 1,512 2012
Brazil 1,500
Colombia 1,512
Costa Rica 1,498
Dominican Republic 1,512
Ecuador 1,500
El Salvador 1,497
Guatemala 1,509
Guyana 1,529
Honduras 1,728
Jamaica 1,500
Mexico 1,560
Nicaragua 1,686
Panama 1,620
Paraguay 1,510
Peru 1,500
Asia Foundation 9 National Peru 64,754 (6,226–9,271 per
year)
2006–14
Gallup 1 National Iraq 3,444 2004
Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
6 Subnational Côte d’Ivoire: Abidjan 1,000 2013
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Eastern region
2,6205,166
20072013
Uganda: Acholi districts 2,5852,8752,498
200520072010
Small Arms Survey 3 National Burundi 1,487 2008
Côte d’Ivoire 2,496 2010
Libya 1,506 2013
1 (with Danish Demining Group)
Subnational Somalia: Somaliland 2,846 2008–09
1 Subnational Sudan: Eastern Equatoria 2,392 2009
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
1 National Afghanistan 3,477 2009
Sources: Afrobarometer (n.d.); Asia Foundation (2014);
Burkholder (2004); DDG and Small Arms Survey (2010); LAPOP (n.d.);
Pham and Vinck (2010; 2014); Pham et al. (2005; 2007); Small Arms
Survey (2015); UNODC (2010);
Vinck and Pham (2014); Vinck et al. (2008)
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Small Arms Survey Issue Brief Number 15 December 20154
questionnaire includes the question, ‘In your view, what is the
biggest problem facing Afghanistan as a whole? And after that, what
is the next biggest problem?’
Gallup’s World Poll surveys percep-tions of personal safety,
food and shelter, employment, well-being, and confidence in
national institu-tions in more than 160 countries. The poll carried
out in Iraq in 2004 asked respondents, ‘As an Iraqi, can you please
tell me what are your great dreams and hopes about the future of
Iraq?’ (Burkholder, 2004).
The Harvard Humanitarian Initia-tive is an academic centre that
con-ducts research, including surveys, in countries that are
experiencing complex emergencies and serious violations of human
rights and international humanitarian law.3 The questionnaires ask
respondents to identify their top priorities.
The Small Arms Survey has carried out a series of armed violence
and security assessments, including in several conflict and
post-conflict settings. These assessments include surveys that are
designed to cap-ture, among other aspects, percep-tions of security
and firearms. Questionnaires may ask respond-ents to identify or
rank their main concerns, such as by enquiring: ‘What are the top
three primary concerns you are currently facing?’ (Florquin,
Kartas, and Pavesi, 2014, p. 2).
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has carried
out several surveys to assess crime and corruption in the private
and public sectors. While these surveys capture relevant
information on people’s perceptions, only one was carried out in a
conflict-affected setting, namely Afghanistan. It asked, ‘What do
you think are currently the biggest problems for Afghanistan?
(Please choose a maximum of three.)’
Caveats A number of caveats apply to surveys undertaken in
conflict-affected envi-ronments. Drawing representative
samples is particularly challenging in insecure environments, as
the required census data quickly becomes outdated and incomplete
due to the displace-ment of civilians who flee combat.4 Conflict
may also complicate the enu-merators’ access to certain areas due
to insecurity as well as logistical and financial constraints.
Another recognized shortcoming— one that affects the reliability
of surveys in general—lies in the possibility that respondents feel
pressured to pro-vide answers that they consider to be more
socially acceptable (Khalil, 2012; Mneimneh et al., 2014). This
so-called ‘social desirability bias’ may push respondents to
provide the ‘right’ answer to questions rather than their genuine
perceptions or opinions. Communities that have been severely
affected by violence and fear retaliation for taking part in an
interview may be particularly affected by this type of bias.
Moreover, there are possible con-textual effects, whereby
interviewees sense what the survey is mainly after, and tend to
comply with that theme in their responses.
As it relies mainly on research carried out by other
institutions, this report assumes the surveys were undertaken
according to the meth-odological standards described in the
available documentation. Evaluating the extent to which these
standards were in fact implemented in the field is beyond the scope
of this study, although this factor may have a significant impact
on the reliability of a survey.
In this context, interviewers play a crucial role in ensuring
the quality of survey results. Critical skills include appropriate
knowledge of the local con-text, an ability to access the
communi-ties to be surveyed, and the capacity to interview
according to ethical and methodological standards. The recruit-ment
of female interviewers is important to ensure an adequate and
gender-balanced implementation of surveys, which may prove
challenging in less secure environments (de Tessières, 2012, p.
194; Herbert, 2013). The con-tent and length of training provided
to the enumerators and their supervisors can be considered a
predictor of the
quality of the survey (Alvazzi del Frate and Murray, 2012, p.
16). However, the delivery of such training depends to a great
extent on the availability of human and financial resources, which
are often more challenging to secure in fragile environments.
Finally, comparing different surveys undertaken in a range of
contexts and at various points in time is fraught with challenges.
While all selected surveys included a question on needs or
pri-orities, their methodologies and ques-tionnaires were developed
to focus on various broader topics, thus posing limitations in
terms of comparability.
First and foremost, the central question on respondents’
priorities is worded inconsistently; in particular, references to
issues that face ‘the gov-ernment’ or ‘the country’ may lead to an
under-representation of issues that can be addressed by the
humanitarian community. Other surveys asked about individual
concerns. Depending on the survey, needs can be referred to as
concerns, problems, issues, or priorities.
Moreover, pre-coded answers dif-fer across the surveys.
Security, for instance, is referred to as crime and security,
insecurity, security for humans or household members, and security
of animals. Sometimes, several options describe different types of
insecurity; the Afrobarometer survey, for exam-ple, includes
separate response options for crime and security, political
instability/political divisions/ethnic ten-sions, political
violence, civil war, and war (international). To facilitate
com-parison, this analysis lumps together these various
options.
Furthermore, while some surveys asked that respondents rank
their top two or three concerns, others only asked them to identify
one or several issues but in no particular order.
Recognizing these limitations, the authors of this report
highlight important similarities and differences in the perceived
priorities of popula-tions affected by armed conflict or high
levels of violence.
The fact that some institutions—including the Afrobarometer, the
AmericasBarometer, the Asia Foun-dation, the Harvard
Humanitarian
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Table 2 The three most-cited priorities in the surveys under
review, with an emphasis on security issues
Region Country/area Year Ranking Survey implementer
Africa Burundi 2008 poverty (1), security issues (2), food/water
(3) Small Arms Survey
2012 security issues (1), poverty/destitution (2), food
shortage/famine (3) Afrobarometer*
Côte d’Ivoire 2010 food/water (1), security issues (2),
transportation (3) Small Arms Survey
2013 unemployment (1), health (2), security issues (3)
Afrobarometer*
Côte d’Ivoire: Abidjan 2013 work/employment (1), security issues
(2), money (3) Harvard Humanitarian Initiative**
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Eastern region
2007 security issues (1), money (2), education (3) Harvard
Humanitarian Initiative**
2013 security issues (1), money (2), job/employment (3)
Libya 2013 security issues (1), healthcare (2), education (3)
Small Arms Survey
Mali 2013 food shortage/famine (1), security issues (2),
poverty/destitution (3) Afrobarometer*
Somalia: Somaliland 2008–09 health (1), water (2), education (3)
. . . security issues (5) Danish Demining Group and Small Arms
Survey
Sudan 2013 management of economy (1), unemployment (2), security
issues (3) Afrobarometer*
Sudan: Eastern Equatoria 2009 food/water (1), healthcare (2),
education (3) . . . security issues (6) Small Arms Survey
Uganda 2012 health (1), poverty/destitution (2), rates and taxes
(3) . . . security issues (13) Afrobarometer*
Uganda: Acholi districts 2005 security issues (1), food (2),
other (3) Harvard Humanitarian Initiative**
2007 security issues (1), health (2), food (3)
2010 food (1), agriculture (2), education (3) . . . security
issues (5)
Asia Afghanistan 2006 unemployment (1), security issues (2),
poor economy (3) Asia Foundation
2007 security issues (1), unemployment (2), poor economy (3)
2008 security issues (1), unemployment (2), high prices (3)
2009 security issues (1), unemployment (2), poor economy (3)
2009 corruption (1), security issues (2), unemployment (3)
UNODC
2010 security issues (1), unemployment (2), corruption (3) Asia
Foundation
2011 security issues (1), unemployment (2), corruption (3)
2012 security issues (1), corruption (2), unemployment (3)
2013 security issues (1), corruption (2), unemployment (3)
2014 security issues (1), corruption (2), unemployment (3)
Iraq 2004 security issues (1), progress to the level of advanced
countries (2), to have a democratic government (3)
Gallup
Latin America and the Caribbean
Belize 2012 unemployment (1), security issues (2), economy (3)
AmericasBarometer***
Brazil security issues (1), unemployment (2), economy (3)
Colombia security issues (1), unemployment (2), corruption
(3)
Costa Rica security issues (1), economy (2), corruption
Dominican Republic economy (1), security issues (2),
unemployment (3)
Ecuador security issues (1), unemployment (2), economy (3)
El Salvador security issues (1), economy (2), unemployment
(3)
Guatemala security issues (1), economy (2), poverty (3)
Guyana unemployment (1), corruption (2), security issues (3)
Honduras corruption (1), security issues (2), poverty (3)
Jamaica security issues (1), unemployment (2), corruption
(3)
Mexico security issues (1), economy (2), unemployment (3)
Nicaragua economy (1), unemployment (2), security issues (3)
Panama security issues (1), inflation/high prices (2),
corruption (3)
Paraguay unemployment (1), security issues (2), economy (3)
Peru security issues (1), economy (2), unemployment (3)
Notes: Survey implementers that are marked as follows use the
corresponding categories of responses to refer to security issues:
* crime and security, political instability/political
divisions/ethnic tensions, political violence,
civil war, and war (international); ** peace and security; ***
security, crime and delinquency, violence, and armed conflict.
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Small Arms Survey Issue Brief Number 15 December 20156
Initiative, and the Small Arms Survey—undertook several surveys
over time or across locations allows for some com-parisons.
Overall, in the areas under investigation, the importance of the
abovementioned caveats diminishes in view of the overwhelming
propor-tion of respondents who identified security issues as their
main concern in almost all the studies considered, as described
below. While absolute levels of concern may not be directly
com-parable due to the cited methodologi-cal differences, survey
results indicate that security was indeed one of the top concerns
in the surveyed territories.
People’s priorities in insecure environmentsThis section reviews
the general find-ings of the 43 surveys under considera-tion, all
of which were undertaken in locations that experienced a high rate
of violent deaths (10 per 100,000 popu-lation per year) at least
once between 2004 and 2012. For each survey under review, Table 2
ranks the three top
Figure 1 Comparing security perceptions and violent death rates
in Latin American and Caribbean countries, 2012
Percentage of respondents who cited security issues among their
top three concerns
Annual violent deaths per 100,000 population
Honduras
El Salvador
Belize
Jamaica
Colombia
Guatemala
Brazil
Dominican Republic
Panama
Mexico
Guyana
Nicaragua
Costa Rica
Peru
Paraguay
Ecuador
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS WHO CITED SECURITY ISSUES AMONG THEIR
TOP THREE CONCERNS
ANNUAL VIOLENT DEATHS PER 100,000 POPULATION
Sources: Geneva Declaration Secretariat (2015b); LAPOP
(n.d.)
Security as the primary concernSecurity issues almost always
ranked among respondents’ top concerns in the 43 surveys under
review. They were among the three most cited topics in 39 of the
surveys, and topped the list in more than half—26—these studies
(see Table 2). Perhaps unsur-prisingly, security was the most-cited
issue in many of the contexts affected by what are arguably the
world’s most serious conflicts, including Afghanistan (from
2007–14), Colombia (2012), the eastern region of the Democratic
Republic of the Congo (2007 and 2014), Iraq (2004), Libya (2013),
and northern Uganda (2005 and 2007). Similarly, in the Americas,
respondents in several countries with particularly high rates of
armed violence, such as El Salvador and Jamaica, ranked security as
their top concern (Geneva Declaration Sec-retariat, 2015b; see
Table 2). This data demonstrates that security is the major concern
for people affected by conflict and insecurity in a variety of
geograph-ical settings.
There are exceptions to the general rule, however. In
environments that are less insecure, security can also be
residents’ primary concern. Indeed, interviewees in Costa Rica,
Ecuador, and Peru chose security as their top issue although their
countries exhibit much lower rates of violent deaths than Honduras
or Jamaica (see Table 2 and Figure 1). Moreover, security issues
were not among the top three cited
Figure 2 The six main concerns cited by survey respondents in
Afghanistan, 2006–14
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONSES
Security and crime issues
Unemployment Corruption Poor economy Education Presence of
Taliban
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: Asia Foundation (2014)
TYPE OF CONCERN
priorities based on the percentage of respondents citing them;
it empha-sizes the rank of the issue of security, including in the
four surveys in which it was not among the top three. As Table 2
shows, security stands out as the most frequently cited concern
overall. Following is a discussion of a number of trends that
emerge from this data.
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concerns in a few surveys undertaken in Somalia (Somaliland),
Sudan (East-ern Equatoria), and Uganda (2010 and 2012). In those
settings, health, food, water, education, poverty, and the economy
were of greater concern.
Other frequently cited problems and needs included unemployment,
which featured among the three most-cited concerns in 26 of the 43
surveys under consideration; the economy (15 surveys); and
corruption (12 surveys) (see Table 2). These issues seemed to be of
particular concern wherever armed conflict was ongoing or levels of
vio-lence were high—particularly in Afghanistan and the Latin
American and Caribbean countries under review. In Afghanistan,
security, corruption, and unemployment dominated respondents’
concerns for nearly a decade, from 2006 to 2014 (see Table 2 and
Figure 2).5 In comparison, needs that can be met by humanitarian
aid organizations—such as healthcare, food, and education—seem to
have been relegated to second-ary importance in these settings.
Relatively speaking, respondents cited basic needs less
frequently among their top concerns. They included food or water
(in the top 3 in just 9 of the 43 surveys under review); health (6
sur-veys); poverty (6 surveys); and educa-tion (5 surveys). These
types of con-cerns were raised almost exclusively by respondents in
African settings, several of which were emerging from—rather
Figure 3 Dreams and hopes for the future cited by survey
respondents in Iraq, 2004
RESPONSE OPTIONS
Stability and security
Progress to the level of advanced countries
To have a democratic government
US forces to leave Iraq
To have Iraq be free, sovereign, and independent
Unity and cooperation between Iraq's sects, ethnic groups
Recovery of the Iraqi economy
An independent Kurdish state
Reconstruction and rebuilding
Other
0 10 20 30 40 50
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONSESSource: Burkholder (2004)
A shopkeeper sits in front of his business, which was damaged
during a series of car bomb attacks in northern Baghdad, Iraq,
August 2013. Source: Thaier al-Sudani/Reuters
than in the midst of—conflict at the time the surveys were
carried out. As analysts of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
note in the case of Côte d’Ivoire, respondents expressed an
interest in recovering from the conse-quences of conflict,
including worsen-ing poverty and an unstable economy (Pham and
Vinck, 2014).6 In the same vein, qualitative research in
Somaliland
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Small Arms Survey Issue Brief Number 15 December 20158
revealed that people talked about safety and security as
prerequisites for effec-tive and sustainable development regarding
areas such as health, water, and education. It is therefore
under-standable that survey respondents in this comparatively
stable region of Somalia prioritized these issues over security,
which ranked fifth (DDG and Small Arms Survey, 2010, pp.
14–17).
Not all of the selected surveys allow for an assessment of the
relevance of security issues to health, water and food provision,
and education. One example is a Gallup Poll carried out in Iraq in
2004, which asked people about their dreams and hopes for the
future of the country. Response options focused on the political
and economic situation of the country and excluded many of the
needs that humanitarian actors can help address, despite their
known importance in part of the coun-try (Burkholder, 2004; see
Figure 3).7
In short, security, the economy, and corruption tend to top
people’s concerns in the most insecure environments. Where
prospects for stability are improv-ing—such as in post-conflict
settings after a peace agreement—security gives way to other types
of concerns, includ-ing needs that can be addressed by humanitarian
aid agencies.
Security perceptions and actual levels of violenceSome of the
selected surveys make it possible to examine whether the
per-ception of key concerns evolves over time, and the extent to
which actual security conditions may affect them. By focusing on
contexts where data on both perceptions and actual levels of
violence is available over time, this section further explores the
linkages between security levels and the prior-itization of
needs.
The Asia Foundation implemented its surveys in Afghanistan
annually from 2006 to 2014, providing a unique set of comparable
time-series data on perceptions of top concerns. As shown in Table
2, respondents listed security as the top concern in eight of the
nine annual surveys and as second after unemployment in 2006, the
year that exhibited the lowest national violent
death rate per 100,000 population of the entire period under
consideration. That rate increased twofold from 2009 to 2010 and
reached a peak of almost 60 deaths per 100,000 in 2014 (see Figure
4). Although the surveys show that the issue of security accounted
for a slightly smaller proportion of responses after 2011, it
nevertheless remained the most-cited priority. In short,
respond-ents kept ranking security as their top concern over a long
period of time, as deteriorating security prospects seemed to
outweigh possible ‘issue fatigue’.
The other top three needs identified by respondents in
Afghanistan also began to shift in 2010, the year during which
rates of violent deaths doubled in comparison to the previous year.
Until 2009, security, unemployment, and the weak economy—and, in
one case, high prices—dominated the top three concerns. In 2010,
corruption emerged among the top three issues, where it remained
alongside security and unemployment through 2014 (see Table 2).
Carried out in 2010, the UNODC survey in Afghanistan found that
respondents identified corruption as a greater worry than security.
Based on the results of a survey conducted in Afghanistan in 2014,
the Asia Founda-tion reports that ‘those who perceive corruption to
be a major problem [. . .] are most likely to report feelings of
fear
for personal safety’ (Asia Foundation, 2014, p. 33). The
linkages between security and corruption are particu-larly strong
in Afghanistan and deserve further scrutiny.
The Harvard Humanitarian Initia-tive surveys carried out in
northern Uganda in 2005, 2007, and 2010 pro-vide similar insight.
Over these years, the security situation improved, as evi-denced by
a lower incidence of violence and stronger perceptions of safety
among survey respondents in 2010 (Pham and Vinck, 2010, p. 23).
Data on violent deaths in the whole country also points to
improvements in the security situa-tion from 2010 (Geneva
Declaration Secretariat, 2015b). As security condi-tions grew more
stable, the surveys detected shifts in responses: whereas survey
respondents had identified peace and security as the top concerns
in 2005 and 2007, they cited food, agri-culture, education, and
health in 2010, such that security issues dropped to the fifth
place (Pham and Vinck, 2010, pp. 19–20; see Table 2).
As the cases of Afghanistan and Uganda illustrate, levels of
insecurity seem to condition people’s priorities. Security and
governance issues such as corruption are particularly relevant when
insecurity shows no signs of abating. When the security situation
is improving, issues associated with development and basic services
take on greater prominence.
National vs. local concernsSome of the surveys under review
contained separate questions asking respondents about the main
issues facing them in general or their coun-try as a whole, as well
as questions on the priorities that are most pressing in their
immediate surroundings. The data suggests that perceptions at the
local level differ from those at the national or general level,
illustrating that vio-lent events occurring elsewhere in the
country can affect people’s overall per-ceptions of security in
different ways.
The Asia Foundation surveys in Afghanistan show that concerns
cited as local-level priorities differed from those listed as key
issues for the coun-try as a whole. Indeed, while security
Figure 4 Comparing security perceptions and violent death rates
in Afghanistan
Percentage of respondents who cited security issues among top
concerns
Annual violent deaths per 100,000 population
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
0
10
10
20
20
30
30
40
40
50
50
60
60
ANNUAL VIOLENT DEATHS PER 100,000 POPULATION
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS WHO CITED SECURITY ISSUES AMONG TOP
CONCERNS
Sources: Asia Foundation (2014); Geneva Declaration Secretariat
(2015b);
IHME (2013); UCDP (n.d.a; n.d.b)
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9http://www.smallarmssurvey.org
and crime topped the list of country-level issues, they only
came in fourth among concerns at the local level, after
unemployment, electricity, and roads (see Figure 5). As security
conditions deteriorated, however, respondents increasingly cited
security and crime as concerns, such that they featured among the
top three local-level issues in 2013 and 2014 (Asia Foundation,
2014).
Similarly, other surveys reveal that reported security concerns
regarding the country as a whole differ from those relating to
respondents’ own neigh-bourhoods or villages. In Libya in 2013, for
instance, security may have topped respondents’ lists of main
concerns (see Table 2), yet a majority (64 per cent) of Libyans
indicated that they considered the areas where they lived to be
safe or very safe (Florquin, Kartas, and Pavesi, 2014, p. 2). While
seemingly contradic-tory, these findings suggest that in at least
some contexts, general perceptions of insecurity may not reflect
immedi-ate threats or experiences of violence. In Libya, the
research underscored how political instability and regular,
media-tized incidents of violence (even if they were isolated
geographically) can play a greater role in generating feelings of
insecurity than the situation at the local level (Florquin, Kartas,
and Pavesi, 2014, p. 2).
The data on local-level priorities reveals that the linkages
between per-ceptions of local and national levels of violence can
be weak. In both Afghanistan and Libya, respondents cited needs for
their neighbourhoods and villages that did not necessarily
match what they identified as their gen-eral priorities for the
entire country. This may be especially relevant if vio-lence is
concentrated in a particular location while other areas are more or
less peaceful. Indeed, an armed con-flict that directly affects
only a small segment of a country’s territory and population can
shape the perceptions of priorities for the whole nation.
Differences in perceptions among population groupsSeveral of the
surveys under review made it possible to disaggregate results by
sex of the respondent, and accord-ing to whether the interviews
were undertaken in urban or rural settings. This section
disaggregates results based on these two criteria to identify
differ-
ences in perceptions among these pop-ulation groups, with the
aim of pro-viding a more nuanced analysis of the above general
findings.
Gendered perceptionsThe consultations held in preparation for
the WHS highlighted the impor-tant role humanitarian actors can
play in addressing the ‘specific needs of women and girls of
different ages and backgrounds’ (WHS, 2015, p. 2). This section
examines whether survey responses varied on the basis of the sex of
the respondent.
The Afrobarometer surveys under-taken in Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire,
Mali, Sudan, and Uganda show that men and women often cited similar
issues among their top three concerns, although some-times in
different order. As Figure 6 illustrates, men tend to express
stronger levels of concern about security issues than women, a
trend that was par-ticularly strong in Mali. In addition, more men
than women reported being worried by the management of the economy
and corruption. In contrast, more female respondents identified
poverty and destitution, food short-ages, and famine as critical
issues. Both groups expressed similar levels of concern for
unemployment and health (Afrobarometer, n.d.).
Small Arms Survey studies under-taken in Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire,
Libya, and Sudan (Eastern Equatoria) confirm
Figure 5 The six main local-level concerns cited by survey
respondents in Afghanistan, 2006–14
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONSES
Unemployment Electricity Roads Security and crime issues
Education Water (lack of)
40
30
20
10
0
Source: Asia Foundation (2014)
TYPE OF CONCERN
Figure 6 Percentage of survey respondents in Burundi, Côte
d’Ivoire, Mali, Sudan, and Uganda who cited security issues among
their top three concerns, by sex (2012–13)
Men Women
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONSES
Mali Burundi Sudan Cote d’Ivoire Uganda
80
60
40
20
0
Note: The term ‘security issues’ combines responses for crime
and security, political instability/political divisions/ethnic
tensions, political violence, civil war,
and war (international).
Source: Afrobarometer (n.d.)
COUNTRY
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Small Arms Survey Issue Brief Number 15 December 201510
these trends. Overall, both men and women identified food and
water, healthcare, crime and security, educa-tion, and
transportation as the five most important needs in life. Women,
however, expressed more concern than men about food and healthcare,
while men generally reported being more worried about crime and
secu-rity than did women (see Figure 7). Moreover, the surveys
revealed that housewives expressed less concern for security than
did students, the retired, or disabled people (Small Arms Survey,
2015).
Similarly, in Afghanistan, slightly more men than women cited
concerns about crime, security, and corruption, while the reverse
was true with respect to unemployment and poverty (Asia Foundation,
2014). The 2009 UNODC survey in Afghanistan revealed com-parable
trends, although reported levels of concern about security issues
were about the same among men and women. More men than women
reported con-cern about corruption, poor governance, and a lack of
the rule of law, while more women than men expressed unease with
reference to unemploy-ment and poverty (UNODC, 2010). In Latin
American countries faced with high levels of violence, more women
than men cited security issues among their main concerns (LAPOP,
n.d.).
Overall, men and women seem to share common perceptions of the
main issues facing them. Yet reviewed data shows that in some
areas, more women
than men single out issues that are relevant to humanitarian aid
agencies, such as access to food and healthcare. Men, on the other
hand, tend to iden-tify insecurity and corruption as their main
concerns, possibly because the group is most directly affected by
vio-lence in conflict.8
Urban and rural settingsComparing responses of people who live
in urban areas with those of respond-ents who reside in rural
settings is also instructive. An examination of the combined
Afrobarometer data for the five countries under review shows that
people who live in urban areas identi-fied unemployment, security
issues, and poverty or destitution as their top
three concerns; meanwhile, rural resi-dents selected poverty or
destitution, security issues, and health as their top concerns (see
Figure 8). These findings illustrate different perceptions of needs
across the urban–rural divide in sur-veyed countries.
The studies undertaken by the Small Arms Survey found that
security was emerging as a much greater con-cern among urban than
among rural respondents. In fact, ‘crime and secu-rity’ was the
most-cited need among respondents who lived in urban areas,
followed by healthcare and education. These findings stand in sharp
contrast to those reported by rural respondents, who identified
food and water, healthcare, and trans-portation as more urgent
needs than security (see Figure 9). The study con-ducted by the
Danish Demining Group and the Small Arms Survey in Somali-land
similarly found that respondents in urban areas expressed more
concern about employment and security while those in rural areas
underscored their worries about healthcare, water, and education
(DDG and Small Arms Survey, 2010).
Respondents to the Asia Founda-tion surveys in Afghanistan cited
security and crime, unemployment, and corruption as the top
concerns for their country, regardless of whether they lived in
rural or urban settings. However, unemployment and the weak economy
were more often cited in urban areas, whereas corruption was more
frequently mentioned in rural settings. Security issues were
similarly cited in both areas (Asia Foundation, 2014). In the Latin
Amer-ican countries under review, more urban residents than rural
respond-ents reported being concerned with security, although this
dynamic did not apply in all the countries under review (LAPOP,
n.d.).
Overall, perceptions of priorities among rural respondents
differed significantly from those of urban respondents. Food and
healthcare seem to matter more in rural settings, while security
concerns seem more wide-spread in urban areas. These findings
suggest that municipal authorities may be overlooked as potential
resources,
Figure 8 The six main concerns cited by survey respondents in
Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Sudan, and Uganda, by urban and rural
setting (2012–13)
Urban Rural
TYPE OF CONCERN
Security issues
Poverty/destitution
Unemployment
Health
Food shortage/famine
Management of economy
0 10 20 30 40
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONSES
Note: The term ‘security issues’ combines responses for crime
and security,
political instability/political divisions/ethnic tensions,
political violence, civil
war, and war (international).
Source: Afrobarometer (n.d.)
Food/water Healthcare Crime and security Education
Transportation Employment
80
60
40
20
0
Source: Small Arms Survey (2015)
TYPE OF CONCERN
Figure 7 The six main concerns cited by respondents in Burundi,
Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, and Sudan (Eastern Equatoria), by sex
Women Men
PERCENTAGE OF RESPONSES
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11http://www.smallarmssurvey.org
or that humanitarian aid organizations deliver more provisions
in cities and do not venture into the countryside, or a combination
of both. The results also highlight the importance of
evidence-based needs assessments, as people’s priorities in complex
environments are context-specific.
ConclusionThe evidence reviewed in this Issue Brief draws from a
body of knowledge previously untapped by the humanitar-ian
community. It reviews the findings of 43 household surveys
conducted by different institutions in a variety of locations that
have experienced high levels of violence, focusing on answers to
questions about the respondents’ main priorities and concerns.
These studies provide valuable information on how individuals view
their needs and priorities, which, in turn, may offer clues as to
where humanitarian assistance fits within this picture.
Security issues stand out as the most pressing concern for
people in a variety of settings affected by recent or ongoing
conflict and armed violence. At the height of a conflict, when
pros-pects for peace are low, people are understandably primarily
concerned with security-related issues. While intuitive, this key
trend justifies the calls made during the WHS consulta-tion process
to ‘keep people safe from harm by putting protection at the
centre
of humanitarian action’—in terms of protecting both vulnerable
groups and humanitarian aid workers (WHS, 2015, p. 3). It also
implies that security should be consistently considered in
humani-tarian programming, as it is likely to feature among
beneficiaries’ primary concerns, if not as a prerequisite for
addressing their other needs.
The study also shows that priorities shift over different stages
of a crisis. The reviewed surveys suggest that access to food,
healthcare, and educa-tion become most relevant only after people
sense that they can expect an improvement in the security
condi-tions around them. Although more research is required, these
issues do appear to resonate particularly strongly among women as
well as in rural areas. Such variations of perceptions among
population groups demon-strate the importance of collecting
sex-disaggregated data, since it can provide critical insight that
the humanitarian community can use to improve its operations and
efficiency. The varia-tions noted between perceptions of security
and actual levels of threat also deserve further scrutiny, as
unfounded perceptions may lead to displacement that could
potentially be prevented. While survey research comes with its own
caveats and challenges, it also holds great potential for assisting
the humanitarian community in meeting some of the important goals
set out by the WHS process.
Notes1 Violent death rates in this Issue Brief are
drawn from the 2015 Global Burden of Armed Violence report and
database (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, n.d.).
2 For an overview of indicators of the qual-ity of a survey’s
methodology, see Alvazzi del Frate and Murray (2012).
3 Pham and Vinck (2010; 2014); Pham et al. (2005; 2007); Vinck
and Pham (2014); Vinck et al. (2008).
4 See, for instance, Asia Foundation (2014, p. 148).
5 Some of the surveys under review did not feature ‘corruption’
as a pre-coded answer; these include surveys carried out by the
Small Arms Survey in Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, and Somaliland.
As a result, the importance of corruption to the surveyed
populations may be greater than suggested in this review.
6 In 2011, Côte d’Ivoire’s gross domestic product shrank by 5
per cent (Pham and Vinck, 2014, p. 19).
7 As an earlier poll carried out in 2003 revealed, humanitarian
assistance was particularly relevant in Baghdad. Indeed, 27 per
cent of respondents in the capital ‘did not have enough money to
pay for needed clothing, food, and healthcare either “always” or
“most of the time”’ (Ludwig, 2003).
8 See, for instance, Ormhaug (2009, pp. 10–13).
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Small Arms Survey Issue Brief Number 15 December 201512 Sudan
Issue Brief Number 6 April 200712
About the Small Arms SurveyThe Small Arms Survey is a global
centre of excellence whose mandate is to generate impartial,
evidence-based, and policy-relevant knowledge on all aspects of
small arms and armed violence. It is the principal international
source of expertise, information, and analysis on small arms and
armed violence issues, and acts as a resource for govern-ments,
policy-makers, researchers, and civil society. It is located in
Geneva, Switzerland, at the Graduate Institute of International and
Development Studies.
The Survey has an international staff with expertise in security
studies, political science, law, economics, develop-ment studies,
sociology, and criminology, and collaborates with a network of
researchers, partner institutions, non-governmental organizations,
and governments in more than 50 countries.
For more information, please visit:
www.smallarmssurvey.org.
Authors: Nicolas Florquin and Irene Pavesi
Contributor: Giulia Mugellini
Copy-editor: Tania Inowlocki
Proofreader: Stephanie Huitson
Design and layout: Rick Jones ([email protected])
Small Arms SurveyMaison de la Paix Chemin Eugène-Rigot 2E CP 136
– 1211 Geneva Switzerland
t +41 22 908 5777 f +41 22 732 2738
Small Arms Survey Issue Brief Number 15 December 201512
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