Survey. The Asian Disease Imagine that the United States is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is expected to kill 600 people.

SurveySurvey

The Asian DiseaseThe Asian Disease

Imagine that the United States is Imagine that the United States is preparing for the outbreak of an preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is unusual Asian disease that is expected to kill 600 people. Two expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:the programs are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 200 If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.people will be saved.

If Program B is adopted, there is a If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people thirds probability that no people will be saved.will be saved.

Which of the two programs would Which of the two programs would you favor?you favor?

The Evil Tyrant has taken 20 innocent civilians hostage. You must choose between Option 1 and Option 2.Option 1: Execute one, release the other 19

Option 2: Spin the wheel

The Evil Tyrant

1 2

3

4

5

67

8

9

10

The Wheel

1 2

3

4

5

67

8

9

10

The Wheel

DeathDeath

The Popcorn QuestionThe Popcorn Question

At the movies, you pay $5 for At the movies, you pay $5 for a bag of popcorn. On the way a bag of popcorn. On the way to your seat, you spill it all.to your seat, you spill it all.

Question: Do you go back and Question: Do you go back and pay another $5 for another pay another $5 for another bag of popcorn?bag of popcorn?

What’s JanetWhat’s Janetdoing now?doing now?

Janet graduated from college five Janet graduated from college five years ago. She was a philosophy years ago. She was a philosophy major who campaigned for pro-major who campaigned for pro-choice candidates and worked as a choice candidates and worked as a counselor in a rape-crisis center. counselor in a rape-crisis center. She once tried to organize a She once tried to organize a boycott of a professor she said was boycott of a professor she said was sexually harrassing women sexually harrassing women students.students.

What’s Janet doing now?What’s Janet doing now?Rank these possibilities in the Rank these possibilities in the order of their likelihood:order of their likelihood:

•TeacherTeacher

•Bank tellerBank teller

•Military officerMilitary officer

•Feminist bank tellerFeminist bank teller

•Social workerSocial worker

The Tropical DiseaseThe Tropical Disease

Imagine that the United States is Imagine that the United States is preparing for the outbreak of an preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Tropical disease that is unusual Tropical disease that is expected to kill 600 people. Two expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:the programs are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 400 If Program A is adopted, 400 people will certainly die.people will certainly die.

If Program B is adopted, there is a If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that no one one-third probability that no one will die and a two-thirds will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will probability that 600 people will die.die.

Which of the two programs would Which of the two programs would you favor?you favor?

The Missing Five DollarsThe Missing Five Dollars

Arriving at the movies, you Arriving at the movies, you discover you have $5 less discover you have $5 less than you thought you had.than you thought you had.

Question: You had planned to Question: You had planned to buy popcorn, which costs $5. buy popcorn, which costs $5. Do you still buy it?Do you still buy it?

The Monty Hall ProblemPick a door:

A B C


A B C


B C


B C

Would you like to switch?

?

Irrational decisions that are very hard to avoid

Asian Disease and Tropical Disease:

If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved.

If Program A is adopted, 400 people will certainly die.

If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that no one will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.











The Evil Tyrant

Option 1: Execute 1, let 19 go


1 2

3

4

5

67

8

9

10

Option 1: Execute 1, let 19 go

Under this option, each hostage has a 5% chance of dying.


Under this option, each hostage has a 10% chance of dying.

The Popcorn Question:

Do you buy another bag?

The Missing Five Dollars:

Do you buy popcorn?


TeacherTeacher

Bank tellerBank teller

Military officerMilitary officer

Feminist bank tellerFeminist bank teller

Social workerSocial worker


Teacher

Bank tellerBank teller

Military officer

Feminist bank tellerFeminist bank teller

Social worker


B C

Would you like to switch?

YES!YES!

1 432

98 10

765

11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

1 432

98 10

765

11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

9

18

Survey. The Asian Disease Imagine that the United States is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is expected to kill 600 people.

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