Surfing Waves of Disruption

SURFING WAVES OF DISRUPTIONFred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

FRED THIEL40 YEARS IN TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

1975 – IBM 360 w. punch cards 2015 – IBM Watson AI and Machine Learning

FRED THIELTRANSFORMATIONAL VALUE CREATOR – “ACTIVATOR”

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

Someone who “creates new value that reinvigorates a company, reinvents an industry or reboots society”.Robert Reiss (co-author “The Transformative CEO”)

Jack Welch Steve Jobs Elon Musk

SURFING

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

Harnessing the energy of a wave to propel yourself forward

WAVES OF DISRUPTION

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

DEFINITION:

• Any progressing movement that changes profoundly that which it touches; disturbs the status quo; changes the accepted rules, procedures

• Social trends and waves – eg rent not own

• When a brand becomes a noun or verb

• Obi-Wan: “I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if

millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were

suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has

happened.”

THEY MISSED THE WAVE

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

• Wang Computer• Kodak• Blockbuster• Sony Walkman• Nokia• Land Line Phone• Book Stores• Travel Agents• Print Media• Etc…..

HOW THE MIGHTY FALLAKA CRASHING ON THE REEF

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

TECHNOLOGY WAVESWAVES COME IN SETS – SETS BECOME ERAS

• WYSIWYG (Mac + Adobe PageMaker) + Laser Printer = Desktop Publishing Era

• Web 1.0• Industry 4.0• Artificial intelligence 2.0• Cost to build systems for

an ecommerce startup• 2000 - $500,000• 2015 - $5,000

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

TECHNOLOGY WAVESWAVES MUST CROSS THE CHASM (AKA THE REEF) TO BE DISRUPTIVE

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

The “Reef”The “Reef”

WAVES CROSSING THE REEFHere Today• Big Data – Real Time Enterprise• Predictive Everything• Robo-advisors• Internet of Things

• Connected Everything• Wearables

• PaaS – Platform as a Service• Mobile First Consumer/Enterprise• Rent/Use don’t Own

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

Approaching Fast• Augmented Reality• Virtual Reality• Internet of Smart Autonomous Systems

• Self-driving Car• Smart Cities• Smart Health• Smart Everything

• Humanistic Robots/AI• Death of the Physical HMI - Keyboard • Death of Corporate Data Center

THEY HAVE SOMETHINGS IN COMMON….• They connect the business with the customer• They connect the physical with the digital• The key driver is customer experience – design

and interaction – “You have to wow me!”

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

HOW ARE YOU RESPONDING?• Digital transformation of business• Business model shift from selling goods to services/usage based billing• Real time enterprise• Personalization - predicting who will buy what and when, where and how• Enabling the mobile consumer• Making Design/UX priority #1• “Lean”/Agile methodologies across all aspects of business• Project based virtual organizations

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

HOW DO YOU DECIDE?• Focus on the customer and how you can deliver innovative game changing

experience and capabilities to them – then figure out how to do it.• Don't do tech first and then try and see how to use it.

• It’s not enough to enable – you have to amaze• Without a customer centric vision you will miss the wave• The [Hindsight è Insight è Foresight] cycle• Evolution + revolution

• Rapid and never ending iteration and test• Start with a hypothesis and test it in the simplest way possible• Don’t be afraid to kill the “sacred cow”

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

WARNING

IF YOU DON’T CANNIBALIZE YOUR OWN BUSINESS, SOMEBODY ELSE WILL.

IF YOU DON’T SERVE NEW CUSTOMER NEEDS, SOMEBODY ELSE WILL.

READ THE WAVES• They come in sets• Choose the waves that will take

over the reef and on to shore• Know when let them pass• Don’t let them crash you on to the

reef• Amaze the user – don’t just enable

them

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

THIEL ADVISORSSTRATEGIC ADVISORY

• Providing management teams, corporate boards and institutional investors with insights that lead to foresight and increased value

• Helping read the waves • Helping decide what/why/when/how to respond• Transformational Value Creation:

• Strategy design and development• Creating innovation engines• Product/Market/Business model design• Organizational design• Lean/Agile enterprise transformation

• M&A advisory and diligence• Executive coaching

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

THANK YOU

Fred ThielThiel Advisors, Inc.

[email protected]

(C) 2016 Fred Thiel – Thiel Advisors, Inc.

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